供需较稳，企业库存小幅下降 摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润较稳，日熔量较稳，本周一 条浮法产线货引板，产量或微幅增加。浮法玻璃终端需求仍偏弱，华 东市场整体出货尚可，库存环比下降，周内部分企业 "以涨促销" 带动产销，出货向好，下游个别适量补货，但多数拿货维持刚需，后 期重点关注浮法玻璃开工变化。预计玻璃价格近期震荡运行，01合约 上方压力1200一线。建议短线高抛低吸，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak, and the market price in East China has been continuously falling. Enterprises are forced to adjust prices to relieve the pressure of goods shipment. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined, with an average price of 1,182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.98 yuan/ton from the previous period. In different regions, the prices in North China, East China, and Central China have all faced downward pressure. The downstream mainly purchases for rigid demand [8] - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market and implement the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including building materials [8][9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of August 14, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels have all decreased [11] 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile and manufacturing industries [13][14] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China has increased [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of August 15, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market decreased by 22,374 to 905,482, and the short positions increased by 42,304 to 1,210,393. The net position of the top 20 members is bearish [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The float glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss. Later, focus should be placed on the start - up changes of float glass [21]

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Upward" for the PVC industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the PVC industry currently faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand in the real - estate market, and new production capacity coming online, with the upcoming release of a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth work plans and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is expected that PVC will oscillate strongly in the near term, and the report suggests going long on dips or conducting a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton in some areas. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.62 percentage points to 77.59%, reaching a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its July quotation by 10 - 25 US dollars/ton. Recent export orders are average, but India's delay in announcing anti - dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. From January to June 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and the PVC operating rate increased last week. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been in trial production, and the support of calcium carbide prices is weak. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure. However, with the upcoming release of relevant policies and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract increased in position and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 5226 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5391 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5373 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, a rise of 3.19%. The position increased by 28,479 lots to 860,317 lots [2] Basis - On July 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the V2509 contract futures was 5373 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 298 yuan/ton, weakening by 70 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Erdos Chlor - Alkali and Yidongdongxing have entered maintenance, and the PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.80 percentage points to 76.79%, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In July, the 400,000 - ton/year Tianjin Bohua and 500,000 - ton/year Wanhua Chemical have been in trial production. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to June 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 3.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 442.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 3.7%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%; the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises' houses was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%; the completion area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%. The overall improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [4] Inventory - As of the week of July 20, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.27% week - on - week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of July 24, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 683,400 tons, 28.23% less than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [5]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed a positive trend, with silicon iron futures main contract opening at 5786.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 6078.00 CNY, marking an increase of 4.48% [1] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises nationwide was 33.33%, an increase of 0.88% week-on-week, with a daily average output of 14,615 tons, up 2.31% from the previous week [1] - The weekly demand for silicon iron across five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous week, while the national silicon iron production reached 102,300 tons [1] Group 2 - The number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 22,303, a decrease of 26 from the previous trading day [2] - Guosen Futures indicated that overall silicon iron production remains low, with a balanced supply and demand, but rapid price increases may not be sustainable, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [2] - Ruida Futures noted that the macroeconomic outlook is strong, with upcoming growth plans for key industries, but current production profits for ferroalloys are negative, with spot profits in Inner Mongolia at 80 CNY/ton and in Ningxia at 280 CNY/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea price rose on the previous trading day, the supply pressure remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July provides price support, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not supplement, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1,809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1,815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and Shandong spot at 1,840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On July 22, prices in Shanxi were 1,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1,850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Northeast 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 22, the anthracite coal price in Henan was 1,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanxi 820 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 22, the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 2,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The melamine price in Shandong was 5,007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu 5,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 22, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 25 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan from July 21), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 6 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [1] 3. Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that propylene futures are experiencing a strong performance in the short term, with prices expected to remain elevated due to potential supply reductions from older production facilities [1] Price Performance - On the first day of trading, the main contract for propylene futures closed at 6613 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 4.14% from the listing benchmark price of 6350 yuan/ton [1] - The mainstream spot price for propylene in East China remained stable at 6435 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Industry Context - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries will be released soon, which may include the potential retirement of older production capacities [1] - There are concerns in the market that the definition of old production capacity may be revised from 30 years to 20 years, leading to the possibility of phasing out older facilities [1] - Currently, 21% of propylene production capacity comes from facilities that are over 20 years old, and any required retirement or technological upgrades could result in a reduction in propylene supply [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of lead is gradually emerging, and the price is strengthening [1]. - In May 2025, the global refined lead market had a supply shortage of 37,600 tons, with production of 1.1113 million tons and consumption of 1.1489 million tons [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,820 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, up 1.72%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 32,288 lots, an increase of 893 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 9,912 lots, an increase of 1,265 lots. The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 50,581 lots, a decrease of 1,370 lots; the LME lead open interest was 136,098 lots, a decrease of 457 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,084 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,400 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 74,975 tons, an increase of 35,225 tons [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was - 533 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 592.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.75 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 460.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.24 yuan/ton [1]. News - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in July, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield once fell about 4 basis points. Trump is reported to be pushing for higher tariffs on the EU, and tariffs on multiple industries will take effect before August 1st. US consumer inflation expectations have improved [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a steady - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2].

Group 1: Key Industry Developments - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced construction in Linzhi, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has organized a meeting to enhance enforcement against strategic mineral smuggling and export, emphasizing the establishment of a joint enforcement coordination center [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has held a meeting focusing on the reform and risk management of small and medium financial institutions, aiming to prevent illegal financial activities and protect consumer rights [2] Group 2: Regulatory Actions and Industry Meetings - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, to optimize supply and eliminate outdated capacity [4] - The China Iron and Steel Association has convened a meeting to discuss establishing a new capacity governance mechanism to prevent overcapacity risks in the steel industry [4] - A special meeting led by the National Development and Reform Commission has been held to promote the healthy development of the low-altitude economy, focusing on preventing inefficient and redundant construction [4] Group 3: Company News - Yushutech has initiated its listing guidance process [6] - Zhongcheng Tui's stock will be delisted on July 21, 2025 [7] - *ST Zitian's stock may be terminated from listing, with suspension starting on July 21 [8] - Xiling Information's controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension on July 21 [9] - Kanghua Biology's controlling shareholder intends to change to Shanghai Wankexin Biotechnology Partnership, with resumption of trading on July 21 [10] - Jichuan Pharmaceutical has disclosed the results of a tender offer by Cao Fei, with stock resuming trading on July 21 [11] - Baichuan Co.'s controlling shareholder and chairman Zheng Tiejiang has returned to work and is performing normal duties [12] - Dongli New Science has had its wholly-owned subsidiary SAIC Hongyan accepted for reorganization by the court [13] - Daotong Technology's controlling shareholder has proposed a mid-term dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for 2025 [14] - Shaanxi Guotou A reported a net profit of 726 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.74% [15] - China First Heavy Industries expects a net loss of 90 million to 108 million yuan for the first half of the year [16]