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供需较稳,企业库存下降
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 09:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to run smoothly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The negotiation focus in the East China market has moved up. Driven by the rise in the peripheral market, prices in Shandong and northern Jiangsu have followed suit, which has boosted production and sales. The overall shipment of enterprises is okay. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1140. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][23] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot negotiation focus in the domestic float glass market has risen, and the average price this week was 1160 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.31 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, overall shipment was good, inventory decreased, and prices were raised. In the East China market, the negotiation focus moved up, and prices in Shandong and northern Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, followed by enterprises in Anhui and Zhejiang with increases of 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Although the overall shipment was okay, most lacked confidence in the future market due to limited improvement in downstream orders [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of September 11, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 76.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to be stable. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels has different changes [12] - **Demand - side**: As of September 1, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. However, the terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to August 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 276940,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The production and sales of automobiles in August were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively [14] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China markets has decreased [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of September 12, the long position of the top 20 members in glass futures was 770,040, an increase of 6982, and the short position was 986,666, an increase of 35,331. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to run smoothly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The negotiation focus in the East China market has moved up, which has boosted production and sales. The overall shipment of enterprises is okay. Attention should be paid to the change in float glass demand in the later stage. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1140. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [23]
喜娜AI速递:昨夜今晨财经热点要闻|2025年9月14日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 22:19
Group 1 - A new round of key industry growth stabilization plans has been launched, focusing on ten critical industries to promote development, including steel and non-ferrous metals, with an emphasis on both supply-side technological innovation and demand-side consumption upgrades [2] - The China Fund Industry Association reported that the top three fund sales institutions are Ant Fund, China Merchants Bank, and Tian Tian Fund, with Ant Fund leading in equity fund scale and showing strong growth [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 23 Chinese entities to its entity list, including 13 integrated circuit companies, citing national security concerns, which has drawn strong opposition from China [2] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to mixed performance in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq reaching a new high, while consumer confidence has declined [3] - The live broadcast by Luo Yonghao addressing the controversy over pre-made dishes has gained significant attention, with support from various restaurant industry leaders and a move towards regulatory compliance in the pre-made food sector [3] - The cryptocurrency market has seen a surge in prices following the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with over 150,000 liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced administrative penalties against Dongtong for financial fraud, proposing fines totaling 2.73 billion yuan and initiating delisting procedures due to significant violations [4] - Shanshan Co. has experienced a significant stock price increase of 134.98% since April, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.78% and a net profit surge of 1079.59%, benefiting from improved market conditions and strategic partnerships [5] - Multiple regions have introduced new real estate policies to stimulate demand, with approximately 190 cities implementing nearly 440 optimization policies, indicating a potential boost in the housing market during the traditional peak season [5] - The second batch of 14 technology innovation bond ETFs has been launched, with the Tianhong Technology Innovation Bond ETF raising over 2.9 billion yuan in a single day, reflecting strong market interest [5]
供需较稳,企业库存小幅下降
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 11:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The weekly average spot price of the domestic float glass market was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, the overall operation was mediocre, with some manufacturers slightly reducing prices or offering certain preferential policies, and the shipment situation varied. In the East China market, the spot price showed mixed trends. Some enterprises loosened prices at the beginning of the week to relieve shipment pressure, while some low - priced enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices, and the production and sales improved significantly [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of August 28, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, flat month - on - month. A float production line started production this week, and the output may increase slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 188.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 109.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.91 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 25.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.86 yuan/ton month - on - month [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 250340,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [14]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in the North China market was average, and the inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The overall shipment in the East China market was acceptable, and the inventory decreased month - on - month [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of August 29, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 750,795, a decrease of 33,442, and the short positions were 948,565, a decrease of 32,202. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23].
供需较稳,企业库存上升
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 11:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak, and the market price in East China has been continuously falling. Enterprises are forced to adjust prices to relieve the pressure of goods shipment. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined, with an average price of 1,182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.98 yuan/ton from the previous period. In different regions, the prices in North China, East China, and Central China have all faced downward pressure. The downstream mainly purchases for rigid demand [8] - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market and implement the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including building materials [8][9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of August 14, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels have all decreased [11] 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile and manufacturing industries [13][14] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China has increased [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of August 15, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market decreased by 22,374 to 905,482, and the short positions increased by 42,304 to 1,210,393. The net position of the top 20 members is bearish [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The float glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss. Later, focus should be placed on the start - up changes of float glass [21]
【冠通研究】:PVC:震荡上行
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 11:22
Report Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Upward" for the PVC industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the PVC industry currently faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand in the real - estate market, and new production capacity coming online, with the upcoming release of a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth work plans and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is expected that PVC will oscillate strongly in the near term, and the report suggests going long on dips or conducting a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton in some areas. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.62 percentage points to 77.59%, reaching a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its July quotation by 10 - 25 US dollars/ton. Recent export orders are average, but India's delay in announcing anti - dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. From January to June 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and the PVC operating rate increased last week. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been in trial production, and the support of calcium carbide prices is weak. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure. However, with the upcoming release of relevant policies and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract increased in position and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 5226 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5391 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5373 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, a rise of 3.19%. The position increased by 28,479 lots to 860,317 lots [2] Basis - On July 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the V2509 contract futures was 5373 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 298 yuan/ton, weakening by 70 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Erdos Chlor - Alkali and Yidongdongxing have entered maintenance, and the PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.80 percentage points to 76.79%, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In July, the 400,000 - ton/year Tianjin Bohua and 500,000 - ton/year Wanhua Chemical have been in trial production. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to June 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 3.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 442.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 3.7%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%; the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises' houses was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%; the completion area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%. The overall improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [4] Inventory - As of the week of July 20, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.27% week - on - week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of July 24, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 683,400 tons, 28.23% less than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [5]
钢材需求预期仍较弱 硅铁涨幅过快预计不可持续
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-25 07:06
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed a positive trend, with silicon iron futures main contract opening at 5786.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 6078.00 CNY, marking an increase of 4.48% [1] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises nationwide was 33.33%, an increase of 0.88% week-on-week, with a daily average output of 14,615 tons, up 2.31% from the previous week [1] - The weekly demand for silicon iron across five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous week, while the national silicon iron production reached 102,300 tons [1] Group 2 - The number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 22,303, a decrease of 26 from the previous trading day [2] - Guosen Futures indicated that overall silicon iron production remains low, with a balanced supply and demand, but rapid price increases may not be sustainable, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [2] - Ruida Futures noted that the macroeconomic outlook is strong, with upcoming growth plans for key industries, but current production profits for ferroalloys are negative, with spot profits in Inner Mongolia at 80 CNY/ton and in Ningxia at 280 CNY/ton [2]
尿素日评:短期政策预期大于基本面-20250723
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 02:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea price rose on the previous trading day, the supply pressure remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July provides price support, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not supplement, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1,809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1,815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and Shandong spot at 1,840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On July 22, prices in Shanxi were 1,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1,850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Northeast 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 22, the anthracite coal price in Henan was 1,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanxi 820 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 22, the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 2,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The melamine price in Shandong was 5,007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu 5,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 22, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 25 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan from July 21), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 6 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [1] 3. Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]
丙烯期货:短期丙烯价格保持偏强运行
news flash· 2025-07-22 07:36
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that propylene futures are experiencing a strong performance in the short term, with prices expected to remain elevated due to potential supply reductions from older production facilities [1] Price Performance - On the first day of trading, the main contract for propylene futures closed at 6613 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 4.14% from the listing benchmark price of 6350 yuan/ton [1] - The mainstream spot price for propylene in East China remained stable at 6435 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Industry Context - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries will be released soon, which may include the potential retirement of older production capacities [1] - There are concerns in the market that the definition of old production capacity may be revised from 30 years to 20 years, leading to the possibility of phasing out older facilities [1] - Currently, 21% of propylene production capacity comes from facilities that are over 20 years old, and any required retirement or technological upgrades could result in a reduction in propylene supply [1]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250721
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:00
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].
铅:供需矛盾逐步显现,价格走强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:26
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of lead is gradually emerging, and the price is strengthening [1]. - In May 2025, the global refined lead market had a supply shortage of 37,600 tons, with production of 1.1113 million tons and consumption of 1.1489 million tons [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,820 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, up 1.72%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 32,288 lots, an increase of 893 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 9,912 lots, an increase of 1,265 lots. The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 50,581 lots, a decrease of 1,370 lots; the LME lead open interest was 136,098 lots, a decrease of 457 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,084 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,400 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 74,975 tons, an increase of 35,225 tons [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was - 533 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 592.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.75 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 460.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.24 yuan/ton [1]. News - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in July, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield once fell about 4 basis points. Trump is reported to be pushing for higher tariffs on the EU, and tariffs on multiple industries will take effect before August 1st. US consumer inflation expectations have improved [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a steady - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2].