Workflow
煤矿超产核查
icon
Search documents
对话陕西煤化工客户:煤炭采购情况&后市煤价展望
2025-09-17 00:50
Q&A 近期内蒙古发布了关于煤矿超产核查的通报文件,提到了一些具体矿井的超产 现象及后续停产整顿措施。陕西方面在超产核查方面有哪些最新进展?涉及的 产能量级如何? 最近由于能源局发布了关于煤矿核查的文件,各省都在积极落实,包括内蒙古 和陕西。7 月份下发文件后,要求每个煤矿自行核查,并进行抽检。目前已转 入全面核查阶段。据了解,煤炭行业普遍存在超产现象,因为煤炭开采相较于 其他行业没有明显上限,可以达到一倍甚至两倍的超产。而化工行业基本只能 达到 110%的生产能力。近年来,由于政策、安全环保等因素的严查,这种情 况有所改善。然而,不同企业和地区情况仍有差异。 从动机来看,煤矿超产主 要是为了追求利润,尤其是在 2020 年和 2022 年煤价疯涨期间,无论是国企 还是民企,都普遍存在这种现象。但自去年(2024 年)开始,随着煤价下行, 部分煤矿接近成本线,多挖一吨或多卖一吨并不能带来显著利润,有些企业甚 预计 10 月至 11 月冬储期间煤价会有 50-60 元/吨左右的涨幅,个别品 种可能上涨 100 元/吨。陕西省煤化工项目主要由大型企业主导,未来 新增项目需通过产能置换实现。 当前煤炭行业管控措施严 ...
煤焦:矿端库存下降明显,盘面震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 08:46
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Report's Core View - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality, but short - term fundamental improvement supports coal prices to run strongly with still sharp price fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market Situation - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated widely with intense long - short game; coking coal spot remained strong, and coke prices were stable after the fifth round of price increase [2] Supply - side Situation - Shanxi is continuously advancing the in - depth verification of coal mine over - production. Many coal mines have voluntarily reduced production. With the approaching of the September parade, the safety supervision situation is severe, and short - term coal mine production increase is limited [2] - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi was 1.059 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons compared with the previous week [2] Inventory Situation - The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. The raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 476,500 tons, a decrease of 224,500 tons from the high point in June; the clean coal inventory is 245,700 tons, a decrease of 254,300 tons from the high point in June [3] Demand - side Situation - This week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills have slowed down. After the low - level rebound of the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants, it has stabilized [3] - This week, the daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons compared with last week and an increase of 86,200 tons compared with last year [3]
双焦为何再度大涨?
对冲研投· 2025-08-06 12:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in coking coal prices driven by policy changes and supply constraints, while also evaluating the sustainability of this price increase amidst ongoing market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Policy Execution and Impact - The National Energy Administration's recent directive on coal production checks has become a focal point for market attention, mandating that annual coal output must not exceed announced capacity and monthly output must not exceed 10% of that capacity [7][8]. - The announcement raises questions about the clarity of the announced capacity, as the last official data was from 2019, and subsequent capacity increases have not been officially documented [8]. - The enforcement of these production limits may vary, with some coal mines potentially struggling to comply, particularly smaller operations [9]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic coking coal production has been slow to recover due to self-inspections and adverse weather conditions affecting output, while imports have also faced logistical challenges [12][13]. - The recent price increases in coking coal are partly driven by downstream purchasing activities, as traders seek to capitalize on price differentials between futures and spot markets [14]. Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - While a long-term upward trend in coking coal prices is anticipated, short-term volatility and potential price corrections are likely due to the gradual recovery of production and limited demand growth [16][19]. - The rapid increase in open interest for coking coal futures contracts indicates a growing market tension, with potential for price pullbacks as the market adjusts to recent price surges [19].
长治地区煤矿“超产”正逐步核查,最新统计新增停产煤矿4座
news flash· 2025-07-31 10:33
Core Viewpoint - The Longzhi region is gradually verifying coal mines for "overproduction," with the latest statistics showing four additional coal mines have been suspended due to various reasons, leading to a structural supply shortage in the coking coal market and strong price support [1] Group 1: Production and Suspension - Four coal mines in the Longzhi region have been newly suspended, attributed to reasons such as completion of monthly production tasks, excessive gas levels, relocation, and safety inspections [1] - The total approved production capacity of the suspended mines is 6.9 million tons, with other coal mines also experiencing varying degrees of production cuts [1] Group 2: Market Impact - According to the latest survey, the daily output of raw coal from coking coal mines in the Longzhi market has decreased by 0.84 thousand tons week-on-week [1] - Overall, the coking coal market in Longzhi is facing a structural supply shortage, which is expected to support prices in the short term [1]
金十期货整理 | 各地炼焦煤矿山对核查“超产”文件的执行情况
news flash· 2025-07-25 08:17
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current situation of coking coal production in various regions of China, focusing on the implementation of "overproduction" inspection documents and the potential impact on coal output. Group 1: Regional Insights - In Lüliang, most coal mines reported that they have been operating within their approved production capacity, with few instances of overproduction. There is a possibility of production cuts if new overproduction control policies are introduced [1] - In Taiyuan, 10 surveyed coal mines have not yet received formal notification regarding overproduction issues, and the potential for production cuts remains to be monitored [1] - In Jinzhong, surveyed coal mines have not received any documents related to overproduction checks, and the impact on production is still uncertain [1] - In Changzhi, some coal mines received verbal notifications from the county but have not seen written documents. They are currently conducting self-inspections, with minimal expected impact on production. However, safety regulations are anticipated to tighten due to a severe safety situation in the first half of the year [1] - In Linfen, 20 surveyed coal mines with a total capacity of 28.9 million tons reported normal production and no overproduction incidents, despite hearing market rumors about related information [1] - In Inner Mongolia, the Ordos Energy Bureau has issued overproduction inspection documents, but most coal mines have only received verbal notifications and have not seen formal documents, resulting in minimal production impact [1] Group 2: Other Regions - In Xinjiang, 14 surveyed coal mines have not received any related documents, and the enforcement of future measures remains unclear [2] - In Shaanxi, 27 surveyed coal mines reported that 3 have received relevant documents, but they are still in the self-inspection phase without halting production. The potential for production cuts due to overproduction issues is still to be monitored [2] - In Ningxia, 11 surveyed coal mines have not received any related documents, and the enforcement of future measures remains unclear [2] - In other regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Anhui, coal mining groups confirmed receipt of related documents but have not initiated self-inspections [2]