Core Viewpoint - The coal prices are expected to decline in Q1 2025 due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with a potential recovery in April driven by high-cost coal mines and imported coal being impacted [1][3] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is projected to drop from 765 CNY/ton to 665 CNY/ton, while coking coal at Jingtang Port is expected to decrease from 1520 CNY/ton to 1380 CNY/ton [1] - Total supply in 2025 is anticipated to increase by 1.9%, with domestic raw coal production rising by 2.1% and zero growth in imported coal [2] - Total demand is expected to grow by 1.5%, with specific sectors like thermal power and coke seeing increases of 2% and decreases in cement and chemical coal consumption by 5% and 1% respectively [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - After three months of significant price declines, coal prices have fallen below annual contract prices, indicating strong support for future price increases [3] - The average price for thermal coal in 2025 is estimated to be 741 CNY/ton, while coking coal is projected at 1794 CNY/ton, suggesting that short-term prices may have already overshot [2] - A rebound in coal prices is expected in April, with potential fluctuations until October, driven by seasonal demand and inventory adjustments [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The average price of thermal coal is projected to rise from a historical low of 420 CNY/ton in 2015 to around 620 CNY/ton over the next 10-15 years, while coking coal prices are expected to stabilize at around 1240 CNY/ton [4] - For a new upward cycle in coal prices to commence, strong policy support is necessary, including demand-side stimulation for real estate and infrastructure, as well as supply-side measures like production limits and import restrictions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology, indicating strong growth potential in the lidar market and expected revenue increases for 2025-2027 [8][12][32]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology reported a net revenue of RMB 2.077 billion (approximately USD 285 million) for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.7% and achieving a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13.7 million, reversing a loss from the previous year [3][4]. - The company experienced a significant increase in gross margin, reaching 42.6% in 2024, up from 35.2% in 2023, primarily due to cost optimization and increased sales volume [4][5]. - Hesai's Q4 2024 performance was particularly strong, with net income of RMB 720 million (approximately USD 98.6 million), a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 170 million [4][5]. - The company anticipates a revenue of RMB 3-3.5 billion (approximately USD 411-480 million) for 2025, representing a growth of 44%-69% compared to 2024 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Hesai Technology - Hesai Technology is positioned as a leading player in the autonomous driving and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) lidar market, with a projected shipment of 1.5 million units in 2025 [8]. - The company has secured exclusive design contracts with top European OEMs, indicating strong demand for its lidar products [6][7]. - Hesai's new product line, including the JT series of 3D lidar for robotics, is expected to enhance its market presence and revenue streams [7]. Ideal Automotive - Ideal Automotive is transitioning from an electric vehicle manufacturer to an artificial intelligence company, with plans to leverage AI in its product offerings [9][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected net profits of RMB 13.35 billion and RMB 19.18 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [11]. Energy and Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the robust performance of Electric Power Energy and Shenhua Co., with both companies benefiting from rising aluminum prices and stable coal operations [12][13]. - Electric Power Energy is noted for its strong cash flow and stable profit margins, while Shenhua Co. is expected to see enhanced earnings due to its high aluminum production capacity [14][15]. Chemical Industry - Baofeng Energy reported a revenue of RMB 32.983 billion (approximately USD 4.5 billion) for 2024, driven by increased production and sales of polyethylene and polypropylene [24][26]. - The company is expanding its coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which is expected to significantly boost its production capacity and market competitiveness [30][31]. Defense and Alloy Market - The report indicates that increased defense spending in China is likely to drive demand for chromium salts and high-temperature alloys, benefiting companies in the materials sector [38][39].