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能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250525
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices rebounded slightly this week but declined near the weekend. Cracks and spreads continued to strengthen, and the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil has significantly weakened [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices continued to rebound at the beginning of the week but were interrupted by the decline in crude oil prices near the weekend. Crude oil is the core factor dragging down fuel oil valuation. OPEC's production increase, the decline in overseas demand due to the trade war, and the latest Iran nuclear issue negotiation are the core concerns of the market. In the short term, the volatility of crude oil prices is expected to continue, affecting the price fluctuations of fuel oil. However, from the perspective of fuel oil's own spreads, the high cracks and strengthening spreads indicate that the market still has confidence in the current peak demand season. Therefore, the short-term valuations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil still have support. In the future, supply-side changes will be the key to guiding the market after the peak season expectations have been fully priced in. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Middle East is still recovering, but some Russian refineries are still under maintenance, and there is a bottleneck in short-term supply increase. In the current peak demand season, the shortage of Russian supply may be the potential factor driving the continuous increase in the spot cracks of high-sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overseas market has some support for the valuation due to the reduction of European supplies and the peak season of marine fuel demand. However, for the domestic market, as the large-scale maintenance of state-owned refineries is coming to an end, the significant increase in low-sulfur spot supply against the background of high port spot inventories will have a negative impact on LU. Attention should be paid to the potential decline in LU cracks and spreads [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: The monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2021 - 2024 are presented [19]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025 are shown [22]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: The document presents the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [25][27][28]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other regions from 2018 - 2025 [33][34][35]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: The FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and other regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented [42][38][40]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: The prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 are shown [45][46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: The high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [52][53]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are shown [56][58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: The month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [69][71]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in different regions are shown [74]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in different regions are presented [76].