1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to decline, approaching the levels at the beginning of the conflict. Due to increased exports from the Middle East and Russia, the spot market has been effectively replenished. Before the geopolitical issues further escalate, the market will reverse the previous risk premium. The price and crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declined significantly this week [4]. - In the long - and medium - term, for the price to continue to fall, the Middle East's exports need to gradually recover, or Russia's exports need to reach a historical high. As time passes, during the peak seasons of marine fuel and power generation, prices may regain upward momentum [4]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, in addition to Kuwait being blocked, some countries' low - sulfur exports are also showing a downward trend, especially Brazil, which has maintained stable exports to the Asian market. This will keep the Asia - Pacific spot market tight. However, the east - west arbitrage window has shown signs of opening, which may attract more European spot goods to flow to Asia [4]. - In China, although market news indicates that major refineries tend to increase low - sulfur production in the future, actual processing data shows that some refineries' operations are still declining due to raw material issues. Whether sufficient supply can be maintained in April remains highly uncertain. The low - sulfur marine fuel spot in the domestic bonded area and the deliverable supply on the LU futures may remain tight in April [4]. - The estimated price range for FU is 4300 - 4900, and for LU is 5100 - 5800 [4]. - Investment strategies include: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices may still correct in the short term, but the supply gap will keep prices at a high level. 2) Inter - period: The inter - period spread structure of FU and LU has returned to backwardation. As long as the spot supply gap caused by the conflict persists, the backwardation structure will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have temporarily fallen to a low level; there is a certain probability that the LU - FU spread will continue to narrow [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of independent refineries, major refineries, and general refineries in China, as well as the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, FCC units, coking units, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 [6][7][8][11]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production, domestic commodity volume, and low - sulfur production of Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2026 [15]. Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It includes the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2019 - 2026 [18]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2026 [21][22]. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 [26]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 [28]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 [30]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [32][33][35]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the high - and low - sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [42]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread**: It presents the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [44]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It includes the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [51][53]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [54][56]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: Recently, the domestic - foreign spot price spread has continued to decline, and the spread between futures prices and foreign spot prices has also been gradually narrowing [59]. - **Logic**: With the current geopolitical conflict in a stable phase, as foreign spot prices decline, domestic futures prices are gradually reversing more risk premiums. The relatively sufficient deliverable supply has led to a greater decline in the prices of domestic FU and LU, causing the domestic - foreign price spread to continue to narrow [60]. - **Price Spread Data**: It provides the domestic - foreign price spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts on different dates in March 2026 [61]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the position and volume changes of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026, including main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts [69][70][72]. FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 [81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils have no significant changes. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten, while the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains relatively abundant. The upstream crude oil price fluctuates, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the same trend. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2580 - 2620, and the LU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 3260 - 3300 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 190,000 barrels in the week of November 12, reaching 20.879 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long [3]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient short - term supply, which is neutral. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 32 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels, which is neutral. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish; the low - sulfur main position is long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the high - and low - sulfur futures spread chart. 5. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on November 12 was 20.879 million barrels, a decrease of 190,000 barrels compared to the previous period. The historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 is also provided, showing the inventory changes during this period [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in low-sulfur fuel oil futures prices are primarily influenced by supply-side factors, with increased low-sulfur supply and high inventory levels leading to downward pressure on prices [6][24]. Supply Analysis - The Dangote refinery has delayed the restart of its RFCC unit, which was originally scheduled for September 20, extending the shutdown by at least three months. This is expected to double the weekly export volume of low-sulfur fuel oil to around 180,000 tons over the next three months [7]. - Other Middle Eastern refineries are maintaining stable low-sulfur supply levels without significant changes [7]. - The total low-sulfur fuel oil tendered by Dangote for September amounts to 390,000 tons, with no corresponding shipping dates observed yet [9]. Demand Analysis - The demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to the end of the summer peak and the decline in power generation needs in the Middle East. The current demand for low-sulfur fuel oil lacks substantial support [6][24]. - In July, Singapore's marine fuel demand showed stability and slight improvement, with total marine fuel sales reaching 4.92 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, low-sulfur fuel oil sales decreased by 3% month-on-month [15]. Inventory Levels - As of September 10, 2025, Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached approximately 4.18 million tons, a slight decrease of 160,000 tons but still at a historical high. Zhoushan Port's fuel oil inventory stands at 1.18 million tons [23][24]. Price Dynamics - The price difference between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oils has widened to historical highs, prompting some shipowners to switch to high-sulfur fuel. The recent price fluctuations are mainly driven by supply changes, with the low-sulfur fuel oil market facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [15][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices rebounded slightly this week but declined near the weekend. Cracks and spreads continued to strengthen, and the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil has significantly weakened [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices continued to rebound at the beginning of the week but were interrupted by the decline in crude oil prices near the weekend. Crude oil is the core factor dragging down fuel oil valuation. OPEC's production increase, the decline in overseas demand due to the trade war, and the latest Iran nuclear issue negotiation are the core concerns of the market. In the short term, the volatility of crude oil prices is expected to continue, affecting the price fluctuations of fuel oil. However, from the perspective of fuel oil's own spreads, the high cracks and strengthening spreads indicate that the market still has confidence in the current peak demand season. Therefore, the short-term valuations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil still have support. In the future, supply-side changes will be the key to guiding the market after the peak season expectations have been fully priced in. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Middle East is still recovering, but some Russian refineries are still under maintenance, and there is a bottleneck in short-term supply increase. In the current peak demand season, the shortage of Russian supply may be the potential factor driving the continuous increase in the spot cracks of high-sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overseas market has some support for the valuation due to the reduction of European supplies and the peak season of marine fuel demand. However, for the domestic market, as the large-scale maintenance of state-owned refineries is coming to an end, the significant increase in low-sulfur spot supply against the background of high port spot inventories will have a negative impact on LU. Attention should be paid to the potential decline in LU cracks and spreads [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: The monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2021 - 2024 are presented [19]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025 are shown [22]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: The document presents the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [25][27][28]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other regions from 2018 - 2025 [33][34][35]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: The FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and other regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented [42][38][40]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: The prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 are shown [45][46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: The high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [52][53]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are shown [56][58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: The month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [69][71]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in different regions are shown [74]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in different regions are presented [76].