Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The fuel oil market is characterized by weak supply and demand, combined with cost - side fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the peak power generation season, but inventory pressure restrains its upward movement. In the short term, it will fluctuate within a range following crude oil [4]. Fundamental Information High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The peak power generation season in the Middle East and South Asia has begun. Saudi Arabia's high - sulfur imports increased by 430,000 tons month - on - month, and Egypt's monthly imports reached 600,000 tons, boosting high - sulfur demand [3]. - The number of ships with desulfurization towers continues to increase. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering has risen to 39%, and the sales volume of high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore increased by 8.3% year - on - year [3]. - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels (+5.68%) week - on - week, and the inventory in Fujairah increased by 1.308 million barrels (+14.62%), highlighting supply pressure [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur marine fuel faces substitution from high - sulfur fuel and competition from diesel. The low - sulfur bunkering volume in Singapore decreased by 4.7% month - on - month. In the power generation sector, its economic efficiency is lower than that of natural gas [3]. Price and Spread Information Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 10 | 2025 - 07 - 04 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 502.32 | 492.11 | 492.08 | 10.21 | 10.24 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 467.45 | 458.7 | 457.38 | 8.75 | 10.07 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 75.88 | 75.39 | 75.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3640 | 3678 | 3636 | - 38 | 4 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 5.2517 | 20.1177 | 15.5002 | - 14.866 | - 10.2485 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 31.97 | 30.2 | 32.7 | 1.77 | - 0.73 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 10.63 | 10.58 | 11.03 | 0.05 | - 0.4 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 5.43 | 5.42 | 5.93 | 0.01 | - 0.5 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.88 | 7.87 | 8.51 | 0.01 | - 0.63 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 4.6 | 4.79 | 6.4 | - 0.19 | - 1.8 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 7.5 | 8 | 8.19 | - 0.5 | - 0.69 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.9685 | 4.826 | 4.5085 | - 2.8575 | - 2.54 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 4.0454 | 4.181 | 3.0703 | - 0.1356 | 0.9751 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 85.07 | 85.09 | 81.24 | - 0.02 | 3.83 | [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 418.73 | 418.88 | 424.82 | - 0.15 | - 6.09 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 421.88 | 422.34 | 419.32 | - 0.46 | 2.56 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 63.34 | 63.45 | 62.89 | - 0.11 | 0.45 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2907 | 2873 | 2906 | 34 | 1 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 1.65 | 3.87 | 3.88 | - 2.22 | - 2.23 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 9.61 | 10.37 | 8.63 | - 0.76 | 0.98 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.9535 | 9.906 | 8.3185 | - 0.9525 | 0.635 | | FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton) | - 4.8823 | - 4.3203 | - 4.6055 | - 0.562 | - 0.2768 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 87.78 | 88.04 | 80.48 | - 0.26 | 7.3 | | Rotterdam High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 54.61 | 54.67 | 58.74 | - 0.06 | - 4.13 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 77.7875 | 84.1375 | 91.7575 | - 6.35 | - 13.97 | | China High - Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High - Sulfur M + 1 | - 13.3804 | - 2.3882 | - 10.1768 | - 10.9922 | - 3.2036 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel) | - 2.97 | - 2.18 | - 1.54 | - 0.79 | - 1.43 | [26][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The fuel oil market rebounded during the daytime session following the crude oil, and short - term fluctuations will continue. Low - sulfur fuel oil had a significant rebound, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market temporarily narrowed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: FU2507 closed at 2,913 yuan/ton with a 0.34% daily increase, and its settlement price decreased by 0.10% to 2,935 yuan/ton. FU2508 closed at 2,876 yuan/ton with a 0.10% daily decrease, and its settlement price increased by 0.84% to 2,894 yuan/ton. LU2507 closed at 3,509 yuan/ton with a 2.36% daily increase, and its settlement price increased by 1.79% to 3,520 yuan/ton. LU2508 closed at 3,466 yuan/ton with a 1.79% daily increase, and its settlement price increased by 2.32% to 3,479 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of FU2507 was 368,632 lots, a decrease of 332,289 lots, and the open interest was 110,684 lots, a decrease of 2,358 lots. The trading volume of FU2508 was 30,552 lots, a decrease of 11,095 lots, and the open interest was 16,917 lots, a decrease of 326 lots. The trading volume of LU2507 was 30,081 lots, a decrease of 35,907 lots, and the open interest was 16,522 lots, a decrease of 5,265 lots. The trading volume of LU2508 was 80,293 lots, a decrease of 24,065 lots, and the open interest was 63,811 lots, an increase of 6,791 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) were 28,950 lots with no change, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 25,000 lots, a decrease of 2,000 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Singapore, the MOPS price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 423.2 dollars/ton with a 1.96% daily increase, and the low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 486.3 dollars/ton with a 0.43% daily increase. The Bunker price of high - sulfur in Singapore was 425.0 dollars/ton with a 0.71% daily increase, and the low - sulfur was 500.0 dollars/ton with a 0.40% daily increase. Similar price changes were observed in other regions [1]. - **Spreads**: The FU07 - 08 spread was 37 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 41 yuan/ton, with a difference of 4 yuan/ton. The LU07 - 08 spread was 43 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 41 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 2 yuan/ton. The LU07 - FU07 spread was 596 yuan/ton. The spread between FU2507 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was - 129.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.6 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between LU2507 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was 13.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 63.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.1 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices rebounded slightly this week but declined near the weekend. Cracks and spreads continued to strengthen, and the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil has significantly weakened [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: Fuel oil prices continued to rebound at the beginning of the week but were interrupted by the decline in crude oil prices near the weekend. Crude oil is the core factor dragging down fuel oil valuation. OPEC's production increase, the decline in overseas demand due to the trade war, and the latest Iran nuclear issue negotiation are the core concerns of the market. In the short term, the volatility of crude oil prices is expected to continue, affecting the price fluctuations of fuel oil. However, from the perspective of fuel oil's own spreads, the high cracks and strengthening spreads indicate that the market still has confidence in the current peak demand season. Therefore, the short-term valuations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil still have support. In the future, supply-side changes will be the key to guiding the market after the peak season expectations have been fully priced in. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Middle East is still recovering, but some Russian refineries are still under maintenance, and there is a bottleneck in short-term supply increase. In the current peak demand season, the shortage of Russian supply may be the potential factor driving the continuous increase in the spot cracks of high-sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overseas market has some support for the valuation due to the reduction of European supplies and the peak season of marine fuel demand. However, for the domestic market, as the large-scale maintenance of state-owned refineries is coming to an end, the significant increase in low-sulfur spot supply against the background of high port spot inventories will have a negative impact on LU. Attention should be paid to the potential decline in LU cracks and spreads [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: The monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2021 - 2024 are presented [19]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025 are shown [22]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: The document presents the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [25][27][28]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and other regions from 2018 - 2025 [33][34][35]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: The FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and other regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented [42][38][40]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: The prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 are shown [45][46][47]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: The high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [52][53]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are shown [56][58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: The month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are presented [62][63][64]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [69][71]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in different regions are shown [74]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in different regions are presented [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil still follows the fluctuations of crude oil. Due to sanctions on Russia and Iran, heavy - oil resources are in short supply, and the recovery of power - generation demand in South Asia during summer supports the crack spread. Given the strength of the high - sulfur market structure in Singapore and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic fuel oil price may have some room for repair, but short - term crude oil fluctuations need to be closely monitored. If the crude oil rebound ends, the fuel oil may continue to weaken [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Situation 3.1.1 Crude Oil Market Latest Dynamics - Supply side: OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May, which theoretically exerts downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, the market believes this increase is mainly to improve member compliance with the production - cut agreement, so the impact is limited. An explosion in Iran disrupted port operations and reduced the shipping efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz by 25%, causing international oil prices to rise by 3.2% - 3.8% in a single day, supporting fuel oil prices [3] - Demand side: The IEA's report shows that in 2024, the global oil demand growth was only 0.8%, and its share in global energy demand fell below 30% for the first time, with a significant slowdown in growth. Recently, as the economy recovers, the energy demand of industries such as logistics has increased, supporting crude oil prices [3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil Market Performance - **Spot price**: On April 28, the benchmark price of fuel oil was 5,475 yuan per ton, down from last week. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST was 452 US dollars per ton, a 10.32% decrease from the beginning of the month [4] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: In Singapore, fuel oil inventory rose by 1.239 million barrels to 24.126 million barrels, an 18 - week high, with a 5.4% month - on - month increase. The average on - land fuel oil inventory in April was about 22.55 million barrels per week, higher than the average of 18.68 million barrels per week in March. In the ARA region, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.4% to 1.16 million tons [5][6] 3.2 Disk Situation - The fuel oil showed a volatile trend this week. The main contract closed at 2,991 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The highest price was 3,008 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 2,967 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 13,077 lots from April 21 to April 25 [10]