燃料油：价格继续上冲，仍处高波动环境 低硫燃料油：大幅上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差 明显反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 2026 年 3 月 4 日 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2604 | 元/吨 | 3.457 | 8.88% | | 3. 408 | 10. 40% | | | | FU2605 | 元/吨 | 3.473 | 10. 40% | | 3. 411 | 10.00% | | | | LU2604 | 元/吨 | 4.127 | 10. 05% | | 3, 951 | 7. 22% | | | | LU2605 | 元/吨 | 4.112 | 7.22% | | 3.946 | 7. 46% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2604 | 두 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to widen, with the up - down trends reversing frequently. High - sulfur fuel oil may return to a weak situation in the short term, but there may still be support at the bottom due to the decline in Russian high - sulfur exports. Low - sulfur fuel oil has some positive factors, and there is support at the bottom, making it difficult to show a significant weakening. The estimated value range for FU is 2400 - 2590, and for LU is 2900 - 3150. In the short term, fuel oil prices enter a high - volatility environment with an unclear direction. The FU and LU monthly spread structures have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. The FU/LU crack spreads have reached a short - term low, and the LU - FU spread will enter a short - term oscillation [4] 3. Summary by Directory Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), and the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, CDU units, FCC units, and coking units from 2018 - 2026. It also shows the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 [6][7][8][10][17] Demand - The report provides monthly data on fuel oil demand, including Singapore's bunker sales, China's apparent consumption, and China's actual consumption of marine fuel oil from 2018 - 2025 [22][23][24] Inventory - The report shows the spot inventory data of global fuel oil from 2018 - 2026, including Singapore's heavy oil inventory, Fujeirah's heavy distillate inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US [26] Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It presents the spot FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujeirah), Europe (Northwest Europe, Mediterranean), and the US (Gulf of Mexico, New York Harbor) from 2018 - 2026 [30][34][38] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of swaps and continuous contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of domestic FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2024 [39][40][43] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread and the Singapore viscosity spread from 2019 - 2026 [46][49] - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: It presents the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [50][52][54] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows the month spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and Northwest Europe [59][60][61] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of Chinese fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 [64][66] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It presents the weekly import and export volume changes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 - 2026 [67] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly import and export volume changes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions from 2018 - 2026 [69] Futures Disk Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: During the week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region fluctuated greatly, and the Zhoushan market moved in sync. The impact of geopolitical issues on the spot price of the outer market gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually repaired as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [72] - **Logic**: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the outer - market spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease, and it is expected that the spreads between FU, LU and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [72] FU, LU Position and Trading Volume Changes - The report shows the trading volume and position data of fuel oil main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts (including high - sulfur and low - sulfur) from 2020 - 2026 [86][88][92] FU, LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - The report shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2026 [99][100][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have recently shown large fluctuations, with the price trend reversing frequently. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Saudi Arabia and Iraq's exports remain high, Venezuelan heavy oil is gradually resuming supply to the US Gulf, and the geopolitical conflict in Iran has subsided. However, Russian high - sulfur exports are showing a downward trend, providing some support to the downside. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the Al Zour refinery will gradually resume production and Japan's exports are increasing, there are still positive factors. Some Brazilian exports are decreasing, the Dangote refinery's maintenance will end in January, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low - sulfur exports. In the short term, the low - sulfur market has a bottom support and is unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - The valuation range for FU is 2400 - 2590, and for LU is 2900 - 3150 [4]. - Strategies include: 1) For single - side trading, fuel oil prices are in a high - volatility environment in the short term, and the price direction is unclear. 2) For inter - period trading, the month - spread structures of FU and LU have returned to backwardation, and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. 3) For inter - variety trading, the crack spreads of FU and LU have reached short - term lows, and the LU - FU spread will enter a short - term oscillation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), global refinery maintenance (including hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units), and domestic refinery fuel oil production and commercial volume [6][10][17]. 3.2 Demand It shows domestic and international fuel oil demand data, such as the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China [23][24][26]. 3.3 Inventory The report provides data on global fuel oil spot inventories, including heavy oil inventories in Singapore, heavy distillate inventories in Fujairah, fuel oil inventories in European ARA, and residual fuel oil inventories in the US [28]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes spot FOB prices in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore and Fujairah for 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil), European region (North - West Europe for 3.5% and 1% fuel oil), and the US (US Gulf and New York Harbor for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil) [32][35][36]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows prices of various fuel oil swaps, such as Singapore 380 bunker swaps, North - West Europe high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps, and Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps [37][38]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It presents the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [44]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: It includes crack spreads in Singapore (high - sulfur and low - sulfur) and North - West Europe (3.5% and 1%) [47][49][51]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: It shows month spreads in Singapore and North - West Europe for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [57][58][59]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China [62][64]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It presents the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export quantities by region [65]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export quantities by region [67]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region have fluctuated greatly this week, and the Zhoushan market has followed the same trend. The impact of geopolitical issues on the spot price of the outer market has gradually diminished, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices has gradually been repaired as the number of warehouse receipts decreases. In the short term, as the geopolitical events cool down and the number of warehouse receipts of FU and LU decreases, the spreads between FU, LU and the Singapore market are expected to increase [70]. - The report also provides data on spot and futures internal - external spreads, including 380 spot, 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous - one, LU continuous, LU continuous - one, and LU continuous - two against the Singapore market [71]. 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes The report shows the trading volume and open interest data of fuel oil main contract, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous, and their corresponding first - month contracts [84][91][95]. 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes The report presents the quantity change data of FU and LU warehouse receipts [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have significantly increased recently, with the up - and - down trends reversing frequently. For high - sulfur fuel oil, stable Middle - East exports and the off - season of marine fuel will put downward pressure on prices. However, due to the un - recovered heavy - oil supply in Venezuela and potential geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the high - sulfur market remains uncertain, and prices are unlikely to decline in a trending manner in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the Al Zour refinery will gradually resume production, there are still upward drivers. Brazilian exports are showing a decline, and the Dangote refinery's maintenance will end in January, leading to reduced exports. Additionally, the geopolitical issues in Venezuela will bring risk premiums. In the short term, domestic and international low - sulfur prices will remain strong. But the stronger domestic market than the overseas market will widen the internal - external price spread, attracting domestic traders to import for profit, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices [4]. - The valuation of FU is 2400 - 2550, and LU is 2900 - 3150. Unilaterally, fuel oil prices have entered a high - volatility environment in the short term, and the direction of price movement is unclear. In terms of inter - period spreads, the monthly spread structures of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues cool down. For inter - variety spreads, the short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached low levels, and the LU - FU spread will enter a volatile phase in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, showing the trends in refinery operations [8]. - It also shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2026, reflecting the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [11][13][15][16]. - Data on the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil (including total and low - sulfur fuel oil) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, indicating the domestic supply situation [20][21]. Demand - The report provides monthly data on the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, showing the demand situation at home and abroad [25]. Inventory - It presents data on the spot inventory of global fuel oil, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore from 2018 - 2026, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2026, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2026, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2026 [29][31][32]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: The report shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujairah, Mediterranean, etc.), Europe (North - West Europe, US Gulf), and the US from 2018 - 2026 [37][39][42][46]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in North - West Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [49][50][52]. - **Spot Spreads**: The report presents data on the viscosity spread and high - low - sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2019 - 2026 [61][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2022 - 2026 are provided [65]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [70][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Singapore from 2018 - 2026 are shown [74]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore, China, the US, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2026 are presented [76]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: The weekly Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices entered a volatile phase, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. The impact of geopolitical issues on overseas spot prices gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually narrowed as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [79]. - **Logic**: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the overseas spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease. It is expected that the spreads between FU, LU, and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [79]. - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: The report shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets from 2021 - 2026 [83][84][85]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are provided [91][97][100]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Numbers**: The changes in the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented [102][103].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to rise, leading to a significant increase in domestic fuel oil futures prices, with the main contracts showing substantial gains [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the midday close, the main 2601 contract rose by 3.70% to 2860 CNY/ton, while the 2510 contract surged by 5.45% to 2921 CNY/ton. The low-sulfur fuel oil main 2511 contract increased by 1.26% to 3387 CNY/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in fuel oil futures prices are attributed to multiple factors, including potential restrictions on fuel oil exports from Russia to secure domestic supply and geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Russia [4][5]. - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have reportedly caused Russia to lose approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, which could lead to further production cuts if attacks persist [4][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - High-sulfur fuel oil prices are experiencing greater increases compared to low-sulfur fuel oil due to a higher risk premium associated with high-sulfur fuel oil, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply disruptions from Russia [4][5]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tightening, with recent data indicating a drop in Russia's oil product exports to 1.94 million barrels per day in early September, the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while high-sulfur fuel oil faces potential supply increases and weakening demand, low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains ample. Investors are advised to monitor changes in crude oil prices and refining capacity in Russia, especially during the upcoming holiday period [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: September 21, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil still fluctuated, but the amplitude significantly narrowed. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remained high, and the spot market transaction premium in the Asia-Pacific region continued to be below 0. There is a possibility of shipments from Northwest Europe to Asia, making it difficult for the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur market price to improve. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strength of the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur price has basically disappeared. The shutdown of downstream facilities in Nigeria may continue to provide support in the future, but due to high port inventories and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic LU futures price is unlikely to turn strongly bullish. - The estimated value range is 2650 - 2900 for FU and 3300 - 3500 for LU. - Strategies include: 1) Unilateral: The bottom support of FU is emerging, while LU is weakening marginally. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain their current structures. 3) Inter - commodity: The cracking spread of FU will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering the period from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global FCC, CDU, hydrocracking, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025. [13][14][15] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China are shown, covering 2018 - 2025. [18] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [22] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [25][26][28] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other regions are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [32][34][36] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, etc. are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [38][39][41] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [44][45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts, are provided, covering 2024 - 2025. [48][49][53] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - and low - sulfur spread, viscosity spread, and cracking spread in Singapore, as well as the 3.5% cracking spread in Northwest Europe, are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [56][57][58] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering 2022 - 2025. [62] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [66][67] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Russia are provided. [70][71] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, and the Middle East are provided. [73] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region generally declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the overseas market, and the premium and discount improved. - **Logic**: This week, the spot prices at home and abroad generally declined. Due to the high inventory in the Singapore market, the overseas spot prices were generally weak. In the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread was repaired. Similarly, for LU, because the newly issued quota decreased year - on - year, the spot supply at ports will not increase significantly in the future, so the internal - external spread of low - sulfur fuel oil also improved. [76] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts (main contract, continuous contract, etc.) are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [87][89][92] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - Data on the warehouse receipt quantity changes of FU and LU are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [99][100]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Author: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil fluctuated widely with increased volatility, and the price center generally moved downward. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remained high, and the window transaction premium was weak, indicating weak spot market transactions. The domestic inventory was replenished in the early stage, and the near-month contracts were continuously suppressed. The domestic and international prices are expected to have limited improvement in the short term. However, there is a possibility that the US and Europe may increase sanctions on Russia, which will bring significant uncertainty to the high-sulfur supply and support prices. For low-sulfur fuel oil, in addition to the continuous supply recovery in Japan, Brazil's exports to the Asia-Pacific region also increased since the end of August. Coupled with some European arbitrage supplies in transit, the Asia-Pacific spot prices are expected to remain weak. The amount of the new quota is still one of the core factors affecting LU valuation. If the quota increases significantly year-on-year, given the high inventory in Zhoushan, the pattern of loose or even surplus supply will have an obvious negative impact on the LU market. Since the issuance time and specific scale of the new quota are still highly variable, continuous observation is needed [4]. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2650 - 2900, and LU in the range of 3300 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while LU is relatively weak. 2) Inter-period: FU and LU will maintain their current structures. 3) Inter-variety: The cracking spread of FU will oscillate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The document presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly commercial volume of domestic fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 are shown [20]. Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [23]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2025, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 are provided [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 are presented [34][35][36]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf from 2018 - 2025 are provided [38][39][41][43][44]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 are presented [44]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swaps of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the swaps of 380 ship fuel in Singapore from 2024 - 2025 are provided [47][48]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are presented [57][58]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: Data on the high-sulfur cracking spread in Singapore, the 3.5% cracking spread in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur cracking spread in Singapore, and the 1% cracking spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are provided [61][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the monthly spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are presented [65]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [71][73]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including major importing and exporting regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, Russia, and Latin America, are provided [75]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including major importing and exporting regions such as Singapore, China, the US, the Middle East, and Japan, are provided [77]. Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - **Review**: This week, the Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices generally declined, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the overseas market, and the premium increased [80]. - **Logic**: This week, the spot prices at home and abroad generally declined. Due to the high inventory in the Singapore market, the overseas spot prices were generally weak. In the domestic market, after the delivery, the inventory on the futures market was digested to some extent, which supported the prices of FU and LU and made them relatively stronger than the overseas spot prices. The premium of FU and LU relative to the Singapore market increased [80]. - **Spot and Futures Market Spreads**: Data on the 380 and 0.5% spot and futures market spreads between domestic and Singapore fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented [84][85][88][89][90]. - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous and first - month contracts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [93][95][98][100][101]. - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: Data on the changes in the quantity of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [104][105].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in low-sulfur fuel oil futures prices are primarily influenced by supply-side factors, with increased low-sulfur supply and high inventory levels leading to downward pressure on prices [6][24]. Supply Analysis - The Dangote refinery has delayed the restart of its RFCC unit, which was originally scheduled for September 20, extending the shutdown by at least three months. This is expected to double the weekly export volume of low-sulfur fuel oil to around 180,000 tons over the next three months [7]. - Other Middle Eastern refineries are maintaining stable low-sulfur supply levels without significant changes [7]. - The total low-sulfur fuel oil tendered by Dangote for September amounts to 390,000 tons, with no corresponding shipping dates observed yet [9]. Demand Analysis - The demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to the end of the summer peak and the decline in power generation needs in the Middle East. The current demand for low-sulfur fuel oil lacks substantial support [6][24]. - In July, Singapore's marine fuel demand showed stability and slight improvement, with total marine fuel sales reaching 4.92 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, low-sulfur fuel oil sales decreased by 3% month-on-month [15]. Inventory Levels - As of September 10, 2025, Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached approximately 4.18 million tons, a slight decrease of 160,000 tons but still at a historical high. Zhoushan Port's fuel oil inventory stands at 1.18 million tons [23][24]. Price Dynamics - The price difference between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oils has widened to historical highs, prompting some shipowners to switch to high-sulfur fuel. The recent price fluctuations are mainly driven by supply changes, with the low-sulfur fuel oil market facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [15][24].

Core Insights - In August, international oil prices exhibited a "V" shaped trend, with Brent crude oil prices initially dropping below $70 per barrel due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, followed by a rebound towards the end of the month, closing at approximately $68 per barrel, reflecting a recovery of about 4.6% from the lows [1] - The volatility in high-sulfur fuel oil prices was primarily driven by geopolitical events, particularly the increased frequency of attacks on energy facilities by Ukraine, which significantly reduced Russian crude processing capacity [2] - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil remained ample, with stable exports from South Sudan and Kuwait, while domestic production saw a slight decline [3] Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell to a low of $65 per barrel, marking a nearly 7% decline from the beginning of the month, before rebounding to $68 per barrel by August 25 [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil prices dropped to a low of 2684 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 9%, before recovering to above 2900 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of about 8% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil prices also experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 3526 yuan per ton after a decline of 7% from the monthly high [1] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude processing fell to an average of 5.14 million barrels per day, a decrease of over 400,000 barrels compared to the last week of July, due to attacks on refineries [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia remained stable at approximately 1.99 million tons, with a notable decrease in exports to Saudi Arabia [2] - Domestic low-sulfur fuel oil production was approximately 1.019 million tons in July, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 3.8% [3] Demand Trends - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil for power generation weakened as summer ended, with Egypt canceling about half of its planned high-sulfur fuel oil orders due to decreasing temperatures and increased natural gas usage [4] - In Singapore, July's bunker fuel consumption increased by 14.8% month-on-month, with high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 40.7% of the total [4] - The overall market for high-sulfur fuel oil showed signs of improvement due to geopolitical influences, with a rebound in the high-sulfur to crude oil crack spread [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The fuel oil market is characterized by weak supply and demand, combined with cost - side fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the peak power generation season, but inventory pressure restrains its upward movement. In the short term, it will fluctuate within a range following crude oil [4]. Fundamental Information High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The peak power generation season in the Middle East and South Asia has begun. Saudi Arabia's high - sulfur imports increased by 430,000 tons month - on - month, and Egypt's monthly imports reached 600,000 tons, boosting high - sulfur demand [3]. - The number of ships with desulfurization towers continues to increase. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering has risen to 39%, and the sales volume of high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore increased by 8.3% year - on - year [3]. - Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels (+5.68%) week - on - week, and the inventory in Fujairah increased by 1.308 million barrels (+14.62%), highlighting supply pressure [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur marine fuel faces substitution from high - sulfur fuel and competition from diesel. The low - sulfur bunkering volume in Singapore decreased by 4.7% month - on - month. In the power generation sector, its economic efficiency is lower than that of natural gas [3]. Price and Spread Information Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 10 | 2025 - 07 - 04 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 502.32 | 492.11 | 492.08 | 10.21 | 10.24 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 467.45 | 458.7 | 457.38 | 8.75 | 10.07 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 75.88 | 75.39 | 75.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3640 | 3678 | 3636 | - 38 | 4 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 5.2517 | 20.1177 | 15.5002 | - 14.866 | - 10.2485 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 31.97 | 30.2 | 32.7 | 1.77 | - 0.73 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 10.63 | 10.58 | 11.03 | 0.05 | - 0.4 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 5.43 | 5.42 | 5.93 | 0.01 | - 0.5 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.88 | 7.87 | 8.51 | 0.01 | - 0.63 | | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 4.6 | 4.79 | 6.4 | - 0.19 | - 1.8 | | Rotterdam Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 7.5 | 8 | 8.19 | - 0.5 | - 0.69 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low - Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.9685 | 4.826 | 4.5085 | - 2.8575 | - 2.54 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 4.0454 | 4.181 | 3.0703 | - 0.1356 | 0.9751 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 85.07 | 85.09 | 81.24 | - 0.02 | 3.83 | [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Location | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 418.73 | 418.88 | 424.82 | - 0.15 | - 6.09 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 421.88 | 422.34 | 419.32 | - 0.46 | 2.56 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 63.34 | 63.45 | 62.89 | - 0.11 | 0.45 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2907 | 2873 | 2906 | 34 | 1 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 1.65 | 3.87 | 3.88 | - 2.22 | - 2.23 | | Rotterdam High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 9.61 | 10.37 | 8.63 | - 0.76 | 0.98 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.9535 | 9.906 | 8.3185 | - 0.9525 | 0.635 | | FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton) | - 4.8823 | - 4.3203 | - 4.6055 | - 0.562 | - 0.2768 | | Singapore High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 87.78 | 88.04 | 80.48 | - 0.26 | 7.3 | | Rotterdam High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 54.61 | 54.67 | 58.74 | - 0.06 | - 4.13 | | US Gulf of Mexico High - Low Sulfur Spread M + 1 | 77.7875 | 84.1375 | 91.7575 | - 6.35 | - 13.97 | | China High - Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High - Sulfur M + 1 | - 13.3804 | - 2.3882 | - 10.1768 | - 10.9922 | - 3.2036 | | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil VS Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel) | - 2.97 | - 2.18 | - 1.54 | - 0.79 | - 1.43 | [26][28]