以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作 者。早期靠创业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基 金，从赚取主动收入慢慢向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：懒人养基 来源：雪球 这一阶段的特点是 " 反复确认 " ： 市场会出现多次回调 ， 每次下跌都会引发 " 牛市结束 " 的 争论 ， 但指数总能在支撑位企稳回升 。 投资者开始分批入场 ， 基金发行规模扩大 ， 但多数 人仍保持警惕 ， 不会盲目加杠杆 。 2020 年 7 月开始的行情就很典型 ， 上证指数快速突破 3000 点后回调 ， 随后再次上涨确认趋势 ， 理性投资者在此阶段既能分享收益 ， 又能控制风 险 。 目前的行情大概率处于第一阶段末段或者第二阶段初段 。 霍华德 · 马克斯在 《 周期 》 里总结过牛市三阶段 ： 第一阶段 ， 少数聪明人相信会涨 ； 第 二阶段 ， ...

Group 1 - The essence of excess returns comes from contrarian actions, as the S&P 500 index is currently at a forward P/E ratio of 22, which is above the historical average of 16 but below the extreme of 32 seen in 2000 [1] - Howard Marks emphasizes the importance of staying in the market rather than trying to time it perfectly, suggesting that investors should reduce holdings when valuations are high but should be ready to buy back when prices are low [1][2] - Emotional stability is crucial for contrarian investing, where investors must assess market sentiment to determine whether they are in a high-risk or low-risk environment [3] Group 2 - The core of holding periods should be based on logic rather than a fixed timeframe, advocating for a disciplined approach to resist impulsive actions during market fluctuations [4] - Marks highlights that true long-term investing is about patience and allowing compounding to work, rather than simply holding onto investments without regard for market conditions [4][5] - The "three stages of a bull market" illustrate market cycles, where the first stage presents buying opportunities, while the third stage is often characterized by excessive optimism and high risk [6] Group 3 - The paradox of risk and return is discussed, where high returns are not guaranteed by high risk, and investors must find a balance between low certainty and high uncertainty [7] - True excess returns are found in overlooked opportunities, where investors must seek out undervalued assets rather than following mainstream consensus [8] - The essence of investing is a test of self-discipline against human emotions, requiring investors to maintain rational judgment amidst uncertainty [9][10]