反人性投资

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霍华德・马克斯:投资是反人性修行,需排除这五大噪音
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-24 00:46
Group 1 - The essence of excess returns comes from contrarian actions, as the S&P 500 index is currently at a forward P/E ratio of 22, which is above the historical average of 16 but below the extreme of 32 seen in 2000 [1] - Howard Marks emphasizes the importance of staying in the market rather than trying to time it perfectly, suggesting that investors should reduce holdings when valuations are high but should be ready to buy back when prices are low [1][2] - Emotional stability is crucial for contrarian investing, where investors must assess market sentiment to determine whether they are in a high-risk or low-risk environment [3] Group 2 - The core of holding periods should be based on logic rather than a fixed timeframe, advocating for a disciplined approach to resist impulsive actions during market fluctuations [4] - Marks highlights that true long-term investing is about patience and allowing compounding to work, rather than simply holding onto investments without regard for market conditions [4][5] - The "three stages of a bull market" illustrate market cycles, where the first stage presents buying opportunities, while the third stage is often characterized by excessive optimism and high risk [6] Group 3 - The paradox of risk and return is discussed, where high returns are not guaranteed by high risk, and investors must find a balance between low certainty and high uncertainty [7] - True excess returns are found in overlooked opportunities, where investors must seek out undervalued assets rather than following mainstream consensus [8] - The essence of investing is a test of self-discipline against human emotions, requiring investors to maintain rational judgment amidst uncertainty [9][10]
霍华德·马克斯最新谈投资的反人性智慧:成功绝不会来自显而易见的事 | 大家谈
高毅资产管理· 2025-06-20 01:54
Core Viewpoint - The essence of successful investing lies in emotional stability and the ability to remain calm amidst market noise and uncertainty. Investors should focus on long-term strategies rather than short-term fluctuations and avoid being swayed by market sentiment [4][20][35]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Investment Strategy - Current market indicators suggest that the U.S. stock market may be overvalued, with the S&P 500's expected P/E ratio at approximately 22, compared to a historical average of around 16 [6][7][10]. - Investing at high valuations can lead to lower future returns, as illustrated by a JP Morgan chart showing that buying at a P/E of 22 could yield annualized returns between -2% and +2% over the next decade [16][18]. - The importance of entry price is emphasized, as the amount invested at the outset significantly impacts long-term returns [17]. Group 2: Emotional Stability in Investing - Successful investors maintain emotional stability, especially during extreme market conditions, and can assess market sentiment to determine risk levels [19][22][35]. - The ability to act contrary to prevailing market emotions is crucial; investors should buy during market downturns when fear is prevalent and sell during euphoric peaks [24][30][66]. - The concept of "mean reversion" is highlighted, where investors often misjudge the market's future based on recent events, leading to poor decision-making [60][66]. Group 3: Long-Term Investment Perspective - A longer investment horizon is recommended, with the idea that holding stocks for at least five years can help investors navigate through complete business cycles [37][43]. - Frequent trading and short-term performance metrics are deemed less important than maintaining a focus on long-term growth and sound investment principles [48][49][52]. - The narrative suggests that emotional reactions to market volatility can hinder investment success, advocating for a patient and disciplined approach [51][52]. Group 4: Understanding and Accepting Risk - Investors must accept that risk is inherent in the pursuit of returns, and high returns are typically associated with high risk [72][75]. - The distinction between perceived risk and actual risk is crucial; high-risk assets may not always yield high returns, and understanding this difference is key to successful investing [80][81]. - Investors should evaluate their risk tolerance and the risks associated with potential investments before making decisions [85][86]. Group 5: The Nature of Excess Returns - Achieving excess returns requires identifying opportunities that are not immediately obvious to the majority of investors, as evident opportunities often come with high prices [89][92]. - The importance of independent thinking and the ability to challenge mainstream views is emphasized as a pathway to achieving superior investment outcomes [98][101]. - The narrative concludes that true investment success is not derived from obvious choices but from the ability to discern value where others do not [92][110].
做显而易见的事,赚不到超额收益!霍华德·马克斯最新谈:投资的反人性智慧
聪明投资者· 2025-06-16 07:01
Core Viewpoint - The essence of successful investing lies in identifying companies with sustainable growth and ensuring that borrowed funds are lent to those capable of repayment [3][53]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks emphasizes that outstanding investors remain emotionally stable and are not swayed by market noise [4][33]. - He highlights the difficulty of investing, stating that if emotions drive decisions, it becomes even harder to succeed [5][71]. - The current market environment is characterized by high valuations, with the S&P 500's expected P/E ratio around 22, above the historical average of 16 [7][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategies - Marks categorizes market states into three: expensive, cheap, and reasonable, suggesting that if valuations are merely reasonable, no action is typically warranted [11][12]. - He advises against excessive trading, advocating for a long-term investment approach, as staying in the market is more beneficial than trying to time it perfectly [13][42]. - Historical data indicates that buying at high P/E ratios (like 22) often leads to low future returns, typically between -2% and +2% over the next decade [15][14]. Group 3: Emotional Control and Decision Making - Successful investors share a common trait of emotional stability, which is crucial during extreme market conditions [33][22]. - Marks stresses the importance of recognizing market sentiment, whether optimistic or pessimistic, to make informed investment decisions [19][20]. - He warns against the common pitfalls of fear of loss and the fear of missing out (FOMO), which can lead to poor investment choices [67][68]. Group 4: Long-Term Investment Mindset - Marks suggests that the best investment opportunities often arise during economic downturns when fear prevails, making it difficult for investors to buy [27][30]. - He advocates for a longer holding period to ride out market fluctuations, as emotional reactions to short-term events can hinder long-term success [36][42]. - The key to successful investing is to focus on fundamental analysis rather than being distracted by short-term market noise [50][51]. Group 5: Risk and Return - Marks explains that higher returns are typically associated with higher risks, and investors must understand the risks they are taking [77][81]. - He emphasizes that risk should not be taken lightly; it requires thorough understanding and calm judgment [80][73]. - The true challenge in investing lies in balancing risk and return while maintaining a clear understanding of market dynamics [113][112].
做显而易见的事,赚不到超额收益!霍华德·马克斯最新谈:投资的反人性智慧
聪明投资者· 2025-06-16 06:54
以下文章来源于IN咖 ,作者热爱学习的 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 "想获得超额收益,绝不可能靠做那些显而易见的事。" 霍华德·马克斯上周接受The Motley Fool联合创始人及分析师团队直播对谈,交流了50多分钟。 提问者没有将问题聚焦在宏观经济以及政策的评价中,而是回到霍华德·马克斯的舒适区域,关于投资 的本质和常识。 霍华德坦言,真正重要的,永远是两件事: 你有没有买入能持续增长的公司?你借的钱,是不是借给 了能还的人? 这番话,对今天的我们尤其有参考价值。当"创新药""潮玩""AI"等概念在不同市场反复掀起热潮时, 我们是否真正理解了自己在买什么、为什么买? 尤其在港股这样估值极低、但不确定性极高的市场中,更需要分清:哪些是"被错杀",哪些是"看上去 便宜但其实很贵"。 霍华德强调,真正出色的投资人,往往是那些"情绪冷静、不被新闻带节奏"的人。 他也引用了一句幸运饼干里的话:"谨慎的人很少出错,但也写不出伟大的诗。"幽默之余,道理朴实深 刻。 参与提问的三位主持轮番上阵,从投资者心理误区、反人性行为机制,到团队选人标准、长期收益来 源……层层递进,霍华德也很耐心,娓娓道来。 他反反 ...
普通人难以致富的三大真相!99%的人都踩过坑!
天天基金网· 2025-03-28 10:08
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that wealth accumulation is primarily a privilege for a minority, and ordinary individuals face significant challenges in breaking through socioeconomic barriers solely through labor [1][2]. Group 1: Traps Ordinary People Face - **Follow-the-Trend Trap**: Many individuals fall into the trap of joining popular trends, such as opening a milk tea shop or investing in a rising stock market, often resulting in financial losses [3][4]. - **Get-Rich-Quick Trap**: Courses promising high income with no prior experience are often misleading, teaching deceptive practices rather than legitimate wealth-building strategies [5][6]. - **Consumption Trap**: Excessive spending on luxury items and lifestyle choices can lead to financial instability, with appearances often misleading about true wealth [7][8]. Group 2: Five Golden Paths for Ordinary People - **Cognitive Monetization**: Individuals can leverage skills, such as programming, to create income opportunities, moving away from physical labor competition [9]. - **Side Business Leverage**: Engaging in side jobs, from ride-sharing to knowledge-based services, can significantly increase income without full-time commitment [10]. - **Low-Cost Entrepreneurship**: Starting small businesses with minimal investment can yield substantial profits, emphasizing the importance of testing ideas before scaling [11]. - **Counterintuitive Investment**: Regular investment in index funds, such as the CSI 300, can outperform most retail investors over time [13]. - **Networking for Profit**: Building and leveraging professional relationships can create additional income streams through referrals and collaborations [12]. Group 3: Ultimate Truths and Actionable Steps - **Time Over Money**: Investing time in skill development can lead to exponential income growth compared to traditional labor [14]. - **Risk Management Over All-In Betting**: Maintaining a financial safety net is crucial before pursuing high-risk ventures [14]. - **Focus Over Trend-Chasing**: Specializing in niche markets can yield better financial returns than general knowledge [14]. - **Rejecting Consumerism**: Prioritizing savings over luxury purchases is essential for building wealth [14]. - **Immediate Actions**: Individuals are encouraged to assess their skills, cut unnecessary expenses, and engage with high-value networks to enhance their financial prospects [14].