Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline to an increase, which aligns with market expectations[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since May 2024, indicating a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023, reflecting weakened domestic demand and overcapacity in certain industries[6] Group 2: Price Movements and Influences - Industrial consumer goods prices rebounded, significantly contributing to the CPI increase, with fuel prices declining by 10.8% year-on-year, a reduction of 2.1 percentage points[6] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was exacerbated by significant drops in coal, steel, and cement prices, with coal prices falling by 21.8%[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The outlook for pork prices suggests they will remain stable, while energy prices may face downward pressure due to geopolitical risks[2] - The Central Financial Committee's focus on addressing "involution" in competition may help stabilize prices in various sectors, emphasizing the importance of demand-side policies alongside supply-side optimization[2] - To promote a recovery in consumer prices, both supply and demand sides must work together, with a focus on enhancing employment and social security to boost household income[6]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend of the economy remains positive despite external shocks and challenges [2] Group 1: Economic Performance - In Q1, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating improved social confidence and progress in high-quality development [2] - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs [2] - As of the end of March, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4% and 7.0% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 265.4 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains abundant [3][4] - The focus will be on balancing short-term and long-term goals, stabilizing growth while preventing risks, and enhancing policy coordination [4] - The central bank aims to promote reasonable price recovery and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [4] Group 3: Consumer Support Initiatives - The central bank plans to introduce a comprehensive financial policy package to boost consumption, which is crucial for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [5][6] - Specific measures include maintaining a favorable financial environment for consumption, enhancing financial services in key sectors, and optimizing consumer credit products [6] Group 4: Price Trends - The report indicates that price levels are expected to recover from low levels, with Q1 core CPI rising by 0.3% and a narrowing decline in PPI [7][8] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices [8]