丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PPI 降幅扩大，"反内卷"势在必行 ——6 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转涨，核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、为 2024 年 5 月以来新高，油价、金价等工业消 费品价格回升是主要拉动。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大、创 2023 年 8 月以来新低，其中，国内需 求疲弱、部分行业产能过剩，煤炭、钢材、水泥降幅扩大是主要拖累。往前看，猪价或维持窄 幅震荡、能源价格面临一定下行压力，CPI 同比回升的关键仍在于居民消费需求的回升；7 月 中央财经委员会直指"内卷式"竞争治理，多行业积极响应，或提振部分行业价格回升，除了 供给侧的优化，加大对国内基建、地产投资以及居民消费等领域支持的需求侧政策同样重要。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title PPI 降幅扩大，"反 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend of the economy remains positive despite external shocks and challenges [2] Group 1: Economic Performance - In Q1, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating improved social confidence and progress in high-quality development [2] - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs [2] - As of the end of March, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4% and 7.0% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 265.4 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains abundant [3][4] - The focus will be on balancing short-term and long-term goals, stabilizing growth while preventing risks, and enhancing policy coordination [4] - The central bank aims to promote reasonable price recovery and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [4] Group 3: Consumer Support Initiatives - The central bank plans to introduce a comprehensive financial policy package to boost consumption, which is crucial for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [5][6] - Specific measures include maintaining a favorable financial environment for consumption, enhancing financial services in key sectors, and optimizing consumer credit products [6] Group 4: Price Trends - The report indicates that price levels are expected to recover from low levels, with Q1 core CPI rising by 0.3% and a narrowing decline in PPI [7][8] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices [8]