美联储难以控制的外部因素推高了资产负债表规模。 同意美联储资产负债表确实应该缩减。 美联储理事沃勒：2.7万亿美元是"充足准备金"水平的粗略基准。 充足准备金体系有助于稳定金融系统。 支付准备金利息对财政部没有成本负担。 一旦准备金达到充足水平，美联储可以增持短期国库券。 需要考虑将资产负债表结构转向短期国库券。 资产负债表未必需要像一些人认为的那样大幅缩减。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：不支付准备金利息将需要更积极的公开市场操作来控制流动性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 "7•8 National Insurance Publicity Day" emphasizes the theme "Love and Responsibility: Insurance Makes Life Better," showcasing the insurance industry's commitment to public service and social governance through innovative online and offline activities [1][3]. Group 1: Activities and Engagement - The insurance industry has organized various activities to engage the public, including financial knowledge lectures and risk reduction services, particularly in response to recent severe weather events [3][4]. - Major companies like People's Insurance Company and China Life Insurance have implemented the "Five Entering" initiative, bringing insurance knowledge to schools, rural areas, and communities [3][4]. - Sunshine Property Insurance and others have focused on financial literacy and risk reduction, addressing public concerns through knowledge dissemination and training [4]. Group 2: Industry Impact and Public Awareness - The activities conducted during the publicity day aim to bridge the communication gap between the insurance industry and the public, enhancing insurance awareness and understanding of products [4][5]. - The insurance sector's proactive approach in risk reduction and public education is seen as a means to lower overall insurance costs and improve the industry's social image [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Growth and Financial Data - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total assets of insurance companies and asset management firms reached 35.9 trillion yuan, a 13.9% increase from the beginning of the year [7]. - In 2024, the insurance premium income was 5.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, while claims and payouts increased by 19.4% to 2.3 trillion yuan [7]. - The insurance industry has expanded its coverage, providing agricultural insurance to 164 million households and health insurance to 1.2 billion people [7][9]. Group 4: Future Opportunities and Innovations - The insurance industry is poised for high-quality development, with new policies aimed at expanding coverage and improving service quality by 2029 [10][11]. - There is potential for innovation in inclusive insurance products to meet diverse public needs, particularly in health and elderly care [11][12]. - The integration of insurance technology is transforming the industry, enhancing efficiency and customer experience through AI, blockchain, and big data [12].

中国人民银行等六部门：实施好货币政策，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，综合运用准备金、再贷款再贴 现、公开市场操作等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，持续推动社会综合融资成本下降。 ...

Historical Evolution of Deposit Reserve System - The deposit reserve system originated in the early 18th century in the UK, evolving from spontaneous interbank clearing needs to a legal risk buffer mechanism in the early 19th century in the US [5][21] - In China, the system was officially established in 1984 when the People's Bank of China began exercising central bank functions, with significant reforms occurring in 1998 to enhance the payment and clearing functions of reserve deposits [5][10] - Since 2015, China's reserve requirements have been assessed using an average method, providing important liquidity management buffers for banks [5][10] International Comparisons and Practices - Internationally, central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have adopted various reserve management practices, including accepting cash reserves and implementing tiered reserve requirements [13][47] - The experience of developed countries shows a trend of lower legal reserve requirements and higher excess reserves compared to China, which currently operates under a framework of structural liquidity shortage [8][13] Future Directions of Deposit Reserve System Reform - Conditions for breaking the 5% experience lower limit for reserve requirements are gradually maturing, with necessary institutional arrangements in place to support the transition [6][14] - The shift from quantity-based monetary policy to price-based policy is a prerequisite for relaxing the legal reserve requirement system, indicating a potential future direction for reform [6][14] Regulatory Functions and Macro-Prudential Management - The deposit reserve system has evolved to include differential reserve requirements and macro-prudential assessments, enhancing the ability to manage systemic financial risks [5][34] - The introduction of the macro-prudential assessment framework in 2016 marked a significant shift in focus from narrow credit growth to broader credit metrics, integrating various financial indicators into the regulatory framework [34][37] Implications for the Bond Market - If the reform of the reserve requirement system is implemented, it may lead to short-term benefits for the bond market, including increased liquidity and potential for larger fund releases during rate cuts [14] - However, the long-term impact on the bond market may be neutral, as the transition to price-based control could diminish the influence of reserve adjustments on market dynamics [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the evolving role of the central bank in monetary policy, liquidity management, and financial regulation, highlighting the transition to a "super central bank" era in China [4][6] - It discusses the importance of understanding the monetary policy framework, which includes objectives, tools, and transmission mechanisms, and how these elements adapt to changing economic conditions [4] - The report notes that fiscal net spending has become a significant contributor to monetary expansion, accounting for approximately 50% of M2 growth in 2024 [4][57] Summary by Sections 01 Modern Monetary Issuance Mechanism - The section explores how money is created within the current "central bank-commercial bank" credit monetary system, detailing the processes of base money issuance and broad money creation [24] 02 Evolution of Central Bank Control over Base Money - This section outlines the historical phases of base money control, including the dominance of foreign exchange reserves and the introduction of various monetary policy tools to manage liquidity [67][91] 03 Efficiency of Quantity-Based Monetary Policy Transmission from M2 Structure - The report analyzes the relationship between M2 growth and monetary policy effectiveness, indicating that the correlation has weakened due to structural changes in the economy [54] 04 Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework and Implementation - It discusses the shift from quantity-based targets to a focus on interest rates as the central mechanism for monetary policy transmission, reflecting the need for modern monetary policy in a transforming economy [5][61] 05 Special Topic: Modern Monetary Theory and the Federal Reserve's Monetary Framework - This section introduces the implications of modern monetary theory in the context of China's monetary policy, particularly in relation to fiscal spending and its impact on liquidity [57][60]

综合资金缺口看，刚性因素中，6 月一般存款增长冻结的准备金规模或在 2256 亿元附近，货币发行及非金融机构存款或小幅消耗流动性 1152 亿元左右；工 具到期方面，1.2 万亿的买断式逆回购到期，6 月已前置操作 1 万亿，关注后 续是否有"加场"操作，MLF 到期量在 1820 亿元，规模相对有限，若月末资 金压力增大，或依旧是延续超额续作的思路。财政因素中，6 月财政支出有所 加大，但或主要体现在季末，叠加政府债券发行规模不小，政府存款对于流动 性的补充或在 4000 亿元附近，略低于去年水平。合计 6 月流动性缺口在 1.4 万亿附近，考虑 1 万亿买断式逆回购已经投放，整体资金缺口压力相对有限。 跨半年央行多以呵护为主，预计资金大幅收敛的风险相对可控。6 月初 DR007 中枢较利率的偏离度在 15bp 附近，DR001 接近 1.4%水平，买断式逆回购前置 操作，整体有利于稳定资金预期。从历史情况看，以往 6 月除 2020 年处于货 币政策收紧区间，资金价格明显走高；以及 2019 年 6 月包商银行接管事件爆 发后，央行为维稳大量投放流动性，DR007 资金价格有所下行外，其余年份 DR007 ...

（上接1版） 5日，央行还公告了上月各种工具的投放、回笼汇总情况。这使得货币政策工具的操作更加公开透明， 与市场的沟通机制更加有效。 央行在官网新设立"中央银行各项工具操作情况"栏目，同时在该栏目中发布了"2025年5月中央银行各项 工具流动性投放情况"表格。 在"2025年5月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况"表格中，央行披露了"准备金、中央银行贷款、公开市 场业务"三类工具类型、"调整法定存款准备金率、常备借贷便利（SLF）、中期借贷便利（MLF）、抵 押补充贷款（PSL）、其他结构性货币政策工具、短期逆回购、买断式逆回购、公开市场国债买卖、中 央国库现金管理"九类具体工具的投放回笼情况。 数据显示，5月准备金净投放1万亿元，SLF净投放5亿元，MLF净投放3750亿元，中央国库现金管理净 投放2400亿元；PSL净回笼2700亿元，买断式逆回购净回笼2000亿元。 明明表示，回顾5月，央行已通过降准释放长期资金1万亿元，MLF净投放3750亿元，而买断式逆回购 则净回笼2000亿元，整体长端流动性供给超过万亿元，缓解了当月政府债集中发行带来的流动性压力。 6月政府债发行压力或低于5月，考虑到降准等总量工具 ...

央行官网开设中央银行各项工具操作情况栏目 金十数据6月5日讯，央行在官网开设中央银行各项工具操作情况栏目，并更新了2025年5月中央银行各 项工具流动性投放情况。该栏目公布了三大类九种工具的月度投放和回笼情况。根据该栏目公布数据， 2025年5月准备金净投放10000亿元，常备借贷便利（SLF）净投放5亿元，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投 放3750亿元，中央国库现金管理净投放2400亿元。 （金融时报） ...

富邦人寿：5月有270亿元台币外价准备金，可以全数冲抵汇率损失。 ...