宏观政策加力

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工业生产较快增长 消费潜能继续释放
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-15 19:09
Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - Consumer spending continues to expand and improve, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, and a 3.4% increase in August alone [1] - The "trade-in for new" policy has shown positive effects, with retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and communication equipment increasing by 18.6%, 14.3%, and 7.3% respectively in August [1] - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Developments - The decline in new housing sales has narrowed, with a 4.7% year-on-year decrease in sales area from January to August, a reduction of 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - New home prices are also seeing a reduced decline, with most cities experiencing a smaller year-on-year price drop in August compared to July [3] - The inventory reduction in the real estate market is progressing steadily, with a decrease of 3.17 million square meters in unsold housing inventory from July to August [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - Overall, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with potential new measures aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [4][5] - Analysts suggest that new fiscal measures and possible interest rate cuts from the central bank may be introduced in the fourth quarter to counter external demand slowdowns [4]
宏观政策适时加力,巩固拓展经济回升向好势头
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-30 22:58
Economic Policy and Strategy - The central government emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to enhance flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote domestic and international dual circulation [1][2] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2][3] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity, with a focus on supporting technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The government aims to support consumption as a priority to effectively release domestic demand potential, including a continuation of the 138 billion yuan subsidy for replacing old consumer goods [3] - Policies will be developed to enhance service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial support for personal consumption loans [3] - Structural reforms will be pursued to improve supply quality and stimulate market vitality, focusing on fostering internationally competitive emerging industries and integrating technological and industrial innovation [3][4] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market is increasingly seen as a barometer for the macroeconomy, with efforts to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity to support economic recovery [4] - The implementation of urban renewal actions and the promotion of a healthy real estate market are viewed as essential for economic stability [4] - A systematic approach combining short-term goals with long-term tasks is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of policies and release economic potential [4]
详解政治局会议:宏观政策适时加力,依法依规治理企业无序竞争
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-30 13:04
Core Points - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized the importance of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which will focus on the economic situation and work for the second half of the year [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" will set the direction for national economic and social development, highlighting the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks [2][3] - The meeting identified four major advantages for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period: the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super-large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [2][3] Economic Policy and Strategy - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policies, effective release of domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring social welfare [4][5] - It was noted that China's economy showed resilience with a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, but there are concerns about investment slowdown and real estate market fluctuations [5] - The meeting emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance policy effectiveness and support economic recovery [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential and expanding consumption, particularly in the service sector [7] - It highlighted the need to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and to view the service industry as part of the real economy [7] Reform and Market Development - The meeting reiterated the commitment to deepen reforms, promote technological innovation, and enhance the integration of technology and industry [8] - It emphasized the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and governance [8][10] International Trade and Foreign Investment - The meeting recognized the need to expand high-level opening-up and stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of increased uncertainties in international trade [10][11] - Specific measures were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises and optimize export tax rebate policies [10]
我国物价有望保持低位回升态势
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-05-11 18:52
Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]