Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: US tariff policies and Middle - East geopolitical issues have increased risk - aversion sentiment, but Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, so gold may continue to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2] - Silver: Multiple Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed risk appetite and silver's bullish sentiment. Silver follows gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2] - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mine production will accelerate, but the supply is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the spot is expected to oscillate, while the futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to capital sentiment [4] - Rebar: Steel enterprise production accidents have limited impact on long - process rebar output, and short - process output recovery takes time. Overall output will remain at a low level. After the holiday, supply and demand are both weak, and there is pressure from high inventory. However, there are macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, so the downside is limited [4] - Iron Ore: After the holiday, iron - water production increase and steel enterprises' inventory digestion co - exist, and the demand expectation for iron ore is average. Considering the expected increase in supply arrivals, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. Due to the macro expectations driven by the Two Sessions and possible weather disturbances on the supply side, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - Crude Oil: US crude oil inventory has increased far beyond expectations, and people are cautious before the US - Iran nuclear talks. The supply pressure of crude oil still exists, and short - term trading is recommended [6] - Natural Rubber: Overseas production areas are gradually entering the production - reduction period, and the prices of overseas natural rubber futures and raw materials have risen. China's bonded - area inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has the expectation of improvement. Overall, natural rubber is expected to oscillate strongly [7] - PX: PX has a high operating rate, the terminal off - season atmosphere is obvious, and the downstream polyester operating rate has been declining. The processing fee has slightly declined. The previous rise in oil prices due to geopolitical reasons has provided some support. Short - term trading is recommended [8] - Copper: The inventory has reached a five - year high, bringing "weak reality" pressure. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, but the pace and strength of recovery need further observation. High inventory suppresses short - term prices, while tight supply at the mine end provides long - term support. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Plastic: The supply side has sufficient inventory, and the demand side has slow resumption of work and insufficient replenishment. The cost of crude oil is relatively stable. Plastic production enterprises' inventory has increased, and the demand is still weak, so it is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term [9] - Methanol: The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, and the port inventory is also high. After the holiday, some downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work. The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - Long - term Treasury Bonds: Risk - aversion sentiment may increase, and the MLF has been renewed in an increased amount after the holiday, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw may be negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate in a triangular - convergence pattern [11] - Aluminum: The early resumption of production at an Icelandic smelter is a marginal repair signal for overseas supply. The global electrolytic aluminum supply shows a pattern of "overseas fluctuations and domestic rigidity". The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and there is great pressure from new capacity. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Trump's speech on tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation have increased risk - aversion sentiment, but Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, weakening the upward momentum of gold [2] Silver - Multiple Fed officials' remarks have dampened rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed silver's bullish sentiment. It follows gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level [2] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 48.9%, with a 32.5% decrease compared to the previous period. The daily output of raw coal has decreased by 72.2 tons to 108.6 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased. The daily output of clean coal has decreased by 28.4 tons to 45.9 tons, and the inventory has decreased by 9.6 tons. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production will accelerate, but the supply is still restricted [4] Rebar - On February 25, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. The price of billets in Tangshan has increased, and the average price of rebar has decreased slightly. Steel enterprise production accidents have limited impact on long - process output, and short - process output recovery takes time. After the holiday, supply and demand are both weak, and there is pressure from high inventory, but the downside is limited due to macro disturbances [4] Iron Ore - From February 16 - 22, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3320.9 tons, an increase of 631.0 tons compared to the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2713.3 tons, an increase of 598.4 tons. After the holiday, iron - water production increase and inventory digestion co - exist, and the demand expectation is average. Considering the expected increase in supply arrivals, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation [5] Crude Oil - As of February 20, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 8.51245 billion barrels, an increase of 15.989 million barrels compared to the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 4.35804 billion barrels, also an increase of 15.989 million barrels. The gasoline inventory decreased by 10.11 million barrels. The daily crude oil output was 13.702 million barrels, a decrease of 330,000 barrels compared to the previous week but an increase of 2 million barrels compared to the same period last year. OPEC + may increase the daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in April [6] Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 67.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 56.5 Thai baht/kg. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade areas was 667,700 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons compared to the previous period. Overseas production areas are entering the production - reduction period, and the downstream is gradually resuming work [7] PX - The 800,000 - ton PX plant of Sinochem Quanzhou has started production, and the estimated PX output in February is 3.08 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 93.39%. The expected output of the PTA market in the next period is 5.7 million tons. As of February 24, the price difference between PX and naphtha was 310 US dollars/ton [8] Copper - As of February 24, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper in mainstream areas has increased by 154,900 tons during the Spring Festival, exceeding 500,000 tons, reaching a five - year high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the import demand has increased [8] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6737 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 329,100 tons, a decrease of 3.15%. The production enterprise inventory is 252,400 tons, an increase of 78.5%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products has decreased by 3.8% [9] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The port inventory of Chinese methanol is 1.4467 million tons, an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 535,300 tons, an increase of 195,000 tons. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 92.75%, an increase of 0.68%. The total operating rate of downstream industries is 69.63%, a decrease of 0.63% [10] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The US trade representative may take tariff measures, which may increase risk - aversion sentiment. After the holiday, the MLF has been renewed in an increased amount, and the capital market is loose, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw may be negative for the bond market [11] Aluminum - Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter will resume production in April 2026, 6 months earlier than expected. The plant has an annual capacity of 320,000 tons and was shut down by two - thirds in October 2025 due to a power failure. It is expected to be close to full production by the end of July [13] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1219 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The weekly output of soda ash is 774,300 tons, a decrease of 1.22%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44%. The operating rate of float glass is 71.07%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. The average price of float glass is 1126 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The total inventory of float - glass sample enterprises is 55.352 million heavy boxes, an increase of 4.31% [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and long - term government bonds, with most expected to show oscillatory trends, and some with specific directional tendencies such as natural rubber being oscillatory and bullish, and soda ash being oscillatory and bearish in the short - term [2][4][5] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Rare metal demand is supported, but silver follows gold's fluctuations. After the holiday, market risk appetite weakened, and the bullish force for silver is less than that of gold. In the medium - term, it is expected to oscillate at a high level [2] - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, and the upward momentum of gold is insufficient. Considering US tariffs and geopolitical factors, it may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2] Ferrous Metals - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing upstream inventory. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost [4] - **Iron Ore**: After the holiday, iron - making water production increases while steel enterprises digest inventory. The demand for iron ore is expected to be average. Considering the possible increase in arrivals at ports, there is still pressure for post - holiday inventory accumulation. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Rebar**: On the first day after the holiday, most downstream terminals have not started work, and trading volume is scarce. Affected by the decline in iron ore and coking coal futures, rebar futures weakened. In the short - term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [5] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supply - side constraints are strengthened, while demand is not fully activated. High prices suppress procurement willingness, and US tariff policies cause market sentiment fluctuations. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, waiting for inventory inflection points and consumption verification [5] - **Aluminum**: There was a small supply surplus in the global aluminum market at the end of last year due to seasonal consumption decline. Supply has a rigid bottom - support, and the strength of demand recovery will determine the upward space. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Iran is the short - term market focus. Non - OPEC+ production increases and the release of previously accumulated production by OPEC+ are driving the market into a re - balancing or inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term trading is recommended [6] Chemicals - **Natural Rubber**: During the Spring Festival, overseas futures and raw material prices rose, and overseas production areas are entering the production - reduction period. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work. Natural rubber is expected to oscillate and be bullish [9] - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased, demand decreased, inventory increased, and production profit decreased. Affected by geopolitical factors, asphalt may be supported and run strongly [10] - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, and inventory may continue to accumulate after the holiday. The cost support is weakened. In the short - term, PVC market prices are expected to oscillate [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with new production capacity putting pressure on the market. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [11] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, port inventory is high, and downstream demand has declined. After the holiday, some downstream enterprises are resuming work. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [12] Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: The central bank's MLF incremental renewal continues, and the capital market is loose, which is beneficial for the bond market. Although the stock market had a good start, its impact on the bond market is limited. In the short - term, the upward momentum of the bond market is insufficient, and it may be bullish in the medium - term [12]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, warns of a structural rotation in global assets as funds flee the dollar at an unprecedented pace due to the "overheating" policies of the Trump administration and tariff impacts [1][2] Fund Flows - Since the beginning of 2026, $104 billion has flowed into developed market funds in Europe and Japan, while only $25 billion has entered U.S. funds, indicating a significant shift in capital away from dollar assets [1][7] - The disparity in fund flows reflects a broader trend of capital outflow from the U.S., with notable inflows into the South Korean stock market, which saw its strongest four-week inflow since 2002, totaling $14.3 billion [7] Asset Performance - Year-to-date asset performance shows gold up 13.4% and oil up 9.5%, while U.S. stocks have slightly declined by 0.2%, and the dollar has dropped by 1.4% [5][12] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop of 24%, marking it as a clear loser in the current asset rotation [5] Historical Context - Hartnett draws parallels with historical market shifts, noting that major political and geopolitical events have historically triggered changes in asset leadership [8] - He suggests that the current environment marks the beginning of a new world order, with emerging markets and small-cap stocks poised to take the lead [12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. national debt is increasing at an alarming rate, with projections indicating that annual interest payments could rise from $1 trillion to $2.1 trillion over the next decade [13] - This growing debt burden may lead to the implementation of yield curve control, establishing a weak dollar as a new norm [13] Market Sentiment - Despite the outflow of funds from the U.S., market sentiment remains highly exuberant, with the Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.4, significantly above the sell threshold of 8 [14] - Conditions for a reversal of this sell signal include a significant increase in cash levels, large-scale short covering in bonds, and a reduction in tech stock positions to neutral levels [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2]. - Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. - The downward space for hog prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - Soybean meal prices will stabilize and rebound in the short term, and pay attention to position risks before the Spring Festival [6]. - Rubber prices may fluctuate [8]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern before the Spring Festival [9]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. - The bond market is bullish in the medium term but with weak short - term upward momentum [12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. - Steel prices may first decline and then rise after the Spring Festival [14]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, but the precious metals market had limited fluctuations. Silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations and is expected to consolidate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Gold**: There are internal differences in the US on tariff policies, and geopolitical uncertainties still exist. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has weakened, which is negative for gold. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Multiple reports point to an oversupply in the global oil market, and the growth rate of oil demand is lower than expected. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The hog price is stable and slightly stronger. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export data is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Although the overall inventory of oil mills is high, the supply of available contracts is tightening before the holiday, providing short - term support for the spot price. The price will stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Congo's copper production has increased, but there are uncertainties due to the complex political situation. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. - **Aluminum**: The US tariff barrier has led to a supply shortage, which further strengthens the bottom support of aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is affected by weather. The market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: The domestic steel market has entered the holiday mode, and the demand has stagnated. The steel price is stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [14]. Chemicals - **PTA**: The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand balance sheet shows inventory accumulation. PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and new production capacity is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. Others - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Monetary easing is the main theme, and the bond market is bullish in the medium term. However, the short - term upward momentum is weak [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may passively fluctuate following gold, with a mid - term high - level shock [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply exceeding demand and new capacity pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [3]. - The domestic steel market is in holiday mode, with downstream demand stagnant. Steel prices are expected to be stable before the festival and may first decline and then rise after the festival [3]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure, but due to the upcoming Two Sessions, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The downward space of hog prices is limited, and the far - month contracts have bottomed out. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [5]. - The price of soybean meal has a short - term bottom support and is expected to stabilize and rebound [6]. - Long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but the shock attribute is still strong [6]. - Crude oil is driven by geopolitics but has supply pressure. It is recommended to focus on risk control during the Spring Festival [7]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the mid - term, affected by geopolitical disturbances [8]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term due to the complex supply situation and weak demand [8]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a shock pattern before the festival and wait for the recovery of demand after the festival [10]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short - term shock [10]. - Plastic prices are expected to be under pressure and weak in the short term [11]. - PTA prices are expected to be weak in the shock [11]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The non - farm data in the US significantly exceeded expectations, but the fluctuation of precious metals was limited. Silver may follow gold, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the mid - term [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and gold is expected to be in a high - level shock in the mid - term [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The price is stable, with supply exceeding demand and new capacity pressure. It is expected to be weak in the short - term shock [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol starts at a high level, with a slight increase in port inventory. It is expected to be weak in the short - term shock [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The export situation in February is not optimistic, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is loose, but the contract volume for delivery is tightening, providing short - term price support. It is expected to stabilize and rebound [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the market, but there is supply pressure. It is recommended to focus on risk control during the Spring Festival [7]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The production will decline during the holiday, and the demand is supported. The fundamentals are expected to be healthy, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory pressure increases, and the supply is affected by weather. The price is under pressure but may fluctuate due to the upcoming Two Sessions [4]. - **Copper**: The supply situation is complex, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term [8]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas supply has a risk of interruption, and domestic supply is stable. The demand is weak in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern before the festival [10]. Building Materials - **Rebar**: The domestic steel market is in holiday mode, with downstream demand stagnant. The price is expected to be stable before the festival and may first decline and then rise after the festival [3]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The price is weak, but there are signs of stopping the decline. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [4]. - **Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is rising, but the demand is weak during the holiday. The price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Plastics - **Plastic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure and weak in the short term [11]. Textiles - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, but the demand is weak during the holiday. It is expected to be weak in the shock [11].

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "risk prevention" is becoming a limiting factor for banks in holding long-term government bonds, with some banks reaching regulatory thresholds for the ratio of economic value change to tier 1 capital (ΔEVE/tier 1 capital) [1][2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - A significant portion of Chinese commercial banks has been acquiring long-term government bonds, with a net issuance of approximately 14 trillion yuan expected by 2025, including 12 trillion yuan for bonds with maturities of 10 years or more [2]. - The ΔEVE ratio is a key regulatory metric that measures potential maximum losses banks may face under different interest rate shock scenarios, with some major state-owned banks approaching a ΔEVE of 15% [2][5]. - International experiences indicate that "risk prevention" does not equate to rigid adherence to regulatory thresholds, as seen in Japan and the U.S., where regulatory measures have been adjusted based on operational realities [5][10]. Group 2: International Comparisons - Japan has adjusted its ΔEVE thresholds for smaller banks, allowing a higher ratio of 20% compared to 15% for larger banks, reflecting the operational context of these institutions [5]. - The U.S. has relaxed its supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requirements for large banks to enhance their ability to provide liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market, indicating a flexible approach to regulatory measures [10]. - Unlike Japan and Europe, the U.S. has minimal regulatory oversight on banks' interest rate risk, allowing banks to set their own ΔEVE thresholds without a mandated "red line" [10]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Monetary Policy - Ensuring macroeconomic stability is fundamental for effective risk prevention, with a focus on flexible fiscal and monetary policies that can adapt to economic cycles [11]. - Current economic conditions in China show weak internal demand, necessitating fiscal expansion to stabilize the overall economic and financial landscape [12]. - The People's Bank of China has significant room for balance sheet expansion, with total assets at 48.2 trillion yuan, indicating potential for increased liquidity support for government bond issuance [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PVC market price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term due to high production, holiday inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand [1]. - Gold is affected by the ongoing US - Iran negotiations, with reduced risk - aversion sentiment and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - The coking coal fundamentals are expected to remain healthy, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely due to capital sentiment [3]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure but will oscillate in the short term due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and macro - expectations [3]. - Rebar prices will oscillate in the short term as demand will seasonally bottom out, supply may decline, and there are macro - disturbances before the Two Sessions [4]. - Short - term pig prices have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts, while focusing on the slaughter volume and sow reduction [4]. - Palm oil prices will maintain a high - level oscillation with a rising price center, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and crude oil trends [5]. - Soybean meal prices are stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds and external soybean prices [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term with high domestic production, falling downstream demand, and rising port inventories [6]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend in the short term due to high inventory, weak demand, and new - capacity pressure [7]. - Crude oil is recommended to be shorted in the short term, and the market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations before the new OPEC+ policy in March [8]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate as investment increases may weaken the demand for monetary easing, but there is insufficient impetus for short - term direction selection [8]. - PX is expected to oscillate weakly as demand weakens during the Spring Festival and supply is high [10]. - Silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [10]. - Natural rubber prices will oscillate in a range due to the tightening supply and weakening demand [11]. - Copper prices will oscillate before the Spring Festival as supply disruptions ease and demand is weak [11]. - Aluminum prices will oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [12]. Summary by Commodity PVC - Price: 4760 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Capacity utilization: 78.93%, up 0.19% [1]. - Social inventory: 120.64 tons, up 2.45% [1]. - Production profit: - 744 yuan/ton for calcium - carbide - based PVC and 21 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [1]. - Downstream开工率: 37%, unchanged from the previous week [1]. Gold - The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are in progress, reducing risk - aversion sentiment and being bearish for gold [1]. Coking Coal - National average ton - coke profit: - 10 yuan/ton; different regions have different profit levels [3]. - Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall, while demand is supported [3]. Iron Ore - Inventory: 10316.64 tons, up 348.05 tons [3]. - Daily consumption: 282.24 tons, up 1.29 tons [3]. - Inventory - consumption ratio: 36.55 days, up 1.07 days [3]. Rebar - Blast furnace开工率: 79.53%, up 0.53 percentage points [4]. - Iron - making capacity utilization: 85.69%, up 0.22 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability: 39.39%, unchanged [4]. - Daily hot - metal output: 228.58 tons, up 0.60 tons [4]. Pig - Average slaughter weight: 123.26 kg, down 0.31 kg [4]. - Slaughter开工率: 41.93%, up 3.05% [4]. - Breeding profit: - 0.39 yuan/head for purchased piglets and 17.88 yuan/head for self - bred and self - raised pigs, both down [4]. - Piglet price: 357.62 yuan/head, down 8.09 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production from February 1 - 5, 2026, increased by 7.65% month - on - month [5]. Soybean Meal - Spot prices in different regions increased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory: over 90 tons, up 94% year - on - year [5]. Methanol - Price: 2207 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [6]. - Port inventory: 147.21 tons, up 1.46 tons [6]. - Production enterprise inventory: 36.83 tons, down 13.16% [6]. - Order backlog: 28.71 tons, up 8.05% [6]. - Capacity utilization: 92.26%, up 1.05% [6]. - Downstream capacity utilization: 70.07%, up 1.23% [6]. Soda Ash - Price: 1227 yuan/ton, relatively stable [7]. - Weekly output: 77.43 tons, down 1.22% [7]. - Manufacturer inventory: 158.11 tons, up 2.39% [7]. - Float glass开工率: 71.86%, unchanged [7]. - Float glass price: 1106 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - Float glass inventory: 5306.4 ten - thousand heavy boxes, up 0.95% [7]. Crude Oil - US online drilling rigs: 412, the highest since December last year, up 1 from the previous week and down 68 from the same period last year [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The State Council meeting promotes investment, which may weaken the demand for monetary easing and is bearish for the bond market [8]. PX - Capacity utilization: 89.87%, with Zhejiang Petrochemical's reformer shutting down and reducing load [9]. - Capacity adjustment: 4313 tons after capacity changes [9]. - Polyester capacity utilization: 76.98% [10]. Silver - US consumer confidence index rises, which is bullish for silver [10]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices: 59.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 54 Thai baht/kg for cup rubber [11]. - Tire factory capacity utilization: 72.09% for semi - steel tires and 60.45% for all - steel tires, both down [11]. Copper - The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile ended, and supply disruptions are reduced [11]. Aluminum - January 2026 average full cost: 16100 yuan/ton, down 2.2% [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the oil market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] - The economic downward pressure in the US increases, which is bearish for silver. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] - The short - term downward space of hog prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] - The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the sentiment of the oil market. The short - term palm oil price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] - In the short term, the steel price may continue to run in a narrow - range oscillation [4] - Affected by supply pressure, the soybean meal price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] - The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] - The methanol market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [6] - The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [7] - The PTA market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is in a short - term transition [8] - The short - term PVC market price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] - The rubber market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] - The gold market may experience increased fluctuations in the short term, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term to find a new balance [10] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for new drivers [10] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day on January 30. The resumption and cancellation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation affected the oil price. Before the new OPEC+ policy in March, the market follows geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] Silver - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than expected. The economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold's passive fluctuations, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] Hog - On February 3, the national wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% compared with the previous day, and the price of eggs decreased by 1.3%. The national hog price mainly declined yesterday due to increased slaughter and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 31, 2026, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the oil market sentiment. The short - term price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] Rebar - On February 4, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. With the cold air moving south and the approaching Spring Festival, the steel market activity decreased. The short - term steel price may continue to oscillate in a narrow range [4] Soybean Meal - On February 4, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased steadily. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is abundant. The price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] Silicon Iron - The starting rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 0.14%. The market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] Iron Ore - From January 26 to February 1, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at 45 ports decreased. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The demand side is weak, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] Methanol - The methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang increased. The port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise inventory also decreased. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and the downstream demand decreases. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Long - term Treasury Bond - The central bank requires to strengthen financial services and coordinate monetary and fiscal policies. The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash is stable. The output increased slightly, and the inventory increased. The float glass start - up increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] PTA - The polyester inventory increased slightly. There may be no new PTA maintenance plans in February. The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. The cost side has high - volatility crude oil [8] PVC - The PVC price increased, the production capacity utilization rate increased, and the social inventory increased. The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8] Rubber - The Thai rubber raw material price is stable. The natural rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire decreased in January 2026. The domestic rubber inventory increased. The market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] Gold - The US January ADP new employment is far lower than expected. The release of non - farm payrolls and CPI data may increase the market volatility. Gold is short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] Copper - Chile's official institution raises the 2026 copper price forecast. The supply is tight, and the demand is promising. The short - term price will continue to oscillate and repair [10] Aluminum - The global alumina production shows regional differentiation. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing statement did not make significant adjustments to its debt issuance strategy, aligning with market expectations, despite prior speculation about measures to lower long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Debt Issuance Strategy - The Treasury plans to maintain the auction sizes for nominal, long-term, and floating-rate bonds unchanged for "at least the next few quarters," a forward-looking guidance that has been in place for two years [1] - The Treasury is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's expansion of short-term Treasury bill purchases and the growing demand from the private sector for these bills [1] - The Treasury reiterated its assessment of the potential to expand the auction sizes for nominal coupon bonds and floating-rate bonds, focusing on structural demand trends and the potential costs and risks of different issuance schemes [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the statement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a daily high of 4.29%, indicating disappointment in the market over the lack of signals for reducing long-term debt supply [2] Group 3: Upcoming Refinancing Auctions - The Treasury announced a total refinancing auction amount of $125 billion for the upcoming week, including $58 billion in 3-year bonds, $42 billion in 10-year bonds, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [4] - This refinancing is expected to raise approximately $34.8 billion in new funds from private investors [4] Group 4: Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - The Treasury will maintain the current auction sizes for TIPS, having previously expanded TIPS auctions to stabilize their market share [5] - There was a divergence among traders regarding TIPS issuance policy, with some expecting no change while others speculated on an expansion in at least one of the three TIPS auctions this quarter [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Bond Purchases - The current scale of the Federal Reserve's short-term Treasury bill purchases reduces the risk of the Treasury overissuing short-term bills beyond investor capacity [6] - However, the Fed's purchasing plan post-April remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, who has previously advocated for reducing the Fed's securities portfolio [6] - Analysts believe that due to the ongoing large federal budget deficit (nearly $2 trillion annually) and the upcoming maturity of a significant amount of medium-term bonds, the Treasury will ultimately need to expand the issuance of coupon bonds [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences, and the market speculates on policy changes after Wash takes office. The US government shutdown crisis is resolved, which may increase risk appetite. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - In February, PTA may have no new maintenance plans, and the demand side is weak around the Spring Festival. PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory. The cost side is affected by the weak supply - demand of PX and high - volatility of crude oil. PTA is in a short - term transition [1]. - The national pig price is mainly declining, with oversupply. However, pre - festival stocking is expected to support the price, and there is an expectation of a small rebound in some areas. The short - term downward space of pig prices is limited [3]. - The increase in palm oil exports in January indicates a boost in demand, mainly due to the expansion of the international soybean - palm oil price difference. Palm oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3]. - During the traditional Spring Festival stocking period, the market stocking sentiment is weak, and the spot performance is weak. Due to sufficient supply, the soybean meal price is expected to decline in the short term [4]. - Manganese silicon continues to have a loose supply - demand situation, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. - As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline. The coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream terminal procurement decreases, and market activity declines. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [5]. - The domestic copper smelting project is restricted, and the growth of refined copper production may slow down. The demand side is weak, and copper prices are expected to oscillate and repair in the short term [6]. - The decline in bauxite shipping and port congestion data indicates an adjustment in short - term demand. Aluminum prices are expected to enter an oscillation and consolidation stage [7]. - In January, the capital market was in a net injection pattern, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to macro - prudential control, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - Geopolitical factors and the expected reduction of India's Russian crude oil purchases have led to a rebound in crude oil futures. Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the market is expected to fluctuate with geopolitical factors [9]. - Domestic rubber is in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the off - season. The inventory has recovered to the medium level, and the demand is weak. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - Geopolitical disturbances and policy uncertainties still exist, but there is no further deterioration. Gold has insufficient downward momentum and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [11]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - The ethylene glycol market has weak supply - demand expectations, with low factory profits, continuous inventory accumulation, and a decline in downstream polyester开工率. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Silver - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The US government shutdown crisis is resolved, and silver may follow gold and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - In January, the average monthly load of PTA was 77.2%, up 3.9% from December and down 2.3% from the same period last year. In February, there may be no new maintenance plans, and the demand is weak. PTA is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory [1]. Pig - On February 3, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.56 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from the previous day. The national pig price is mainly declining, but pre - festival stocking is expected to support the price [3]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.89% compared with the previous month. India's palm oil imports in January increased by 51%. Palm oil prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [3]. Soybean Meal - On February 3, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were mixed. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to decline in the short term [4]. Manganese Silicon - The national 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprise sample has an operating rate of 36.21% and a daily output of 27,485 tons. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The independent coking enterprise sample has a capacity utilization rate of 71.86%, a daily coke output of 628,400 tons, and a coking coal inventory of 1.23479 billion tons. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [5]. Rebar - On February 3, the domestic steel market prices were in a narrow - range consolidation. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [5]. Copper - The domestic copper smelting project is restricted, and the growth of refined copper production may slow down. The demand side is weak, and copper prices are expected to oscillate and repair in the short term [6]. Aluminum - As of January 30, the bauxite shipping volume from major countries to China decreased, and the port congestion volume also decreased. Aluminum prices are expected to enter an oscillation and consolidation stage [7]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - In January, the capital market was in a net injection pattern, which is beneficial to the bond market. However, due to macro - prudential control, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors and the expected reduction of India's Russian crude oil purchases have led to a rebound in crude oil futures. Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the market is expected to fluctuate with geopolitical factors [9]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.8 baht/kg, and the cup glue price is 53.5 baht/kg. As of February 1, the inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber is in the off - season, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Gold - Geopolitical disturbances and policy uncertainties still exist, but there is no further deterioration. Gold has insufficient downward momentum and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [11]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased, and the port inventory increased. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. Soda Ash - The national heavy - quality soda ash mainstream price is 1,227 yuan/ton, and the output and inventory increased. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased, the output increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14].