今 日 早 评 重点品种： 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在国会发表其第二任期的首 次国情咨文演讲，演讲历时108分钟，创下历史纪录。特朗普在 演讲中宣布，将绕过最高法院裁决、通过其他法律途径持续加 征关税，并明确提出以关税收入取代个人所得税。特朗普表 示，更倾向于用外交手段解决伊朗核问题，但绝不允许伊朗拥 有核武器。评：美国关税政策及中东地缘政治问题使得避险情 绪升温，但是美联储官员讲话打压降息预期，黄金进一步上涨 动力减弱，关注美国关税及地缘扰动，黄金中期或依然高位震 荡。 【短评-白银】亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克临别之际发文， 强调捍卫美联储独立性。2月26 日，美联储施密德周三表示， 过高的通胀仍是美联 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国政府计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能 项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球金属贸易 集团的计划，首批将聚焦锗、镓、锑、钨四种金属，随后将逐 步扩大覆盖范围。评：稀有金属需求持续有支撑，但是白银更 多关注黄金的波动，节假日期间市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银 做多力量小于黄金。关注后续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金 被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，AI已引发美国劳动力 市场的代际更迭，可能导致失业率上升，美联储可能无法以降 息应对，货币政策可能陷入两难，降息既无法有效应对结构性 失业，又可能推高通胀。评：美联储理事库克及芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比均表示，只是降息不能解决所有问题，市场对降息 预期有所减弱。黄金进一步上涨动力不足，关注美国关税及地 缘扰动，黄金中期或依然高位震荡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月25日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.c ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, warns of a structural rotation in global assets as funds flee the dollar at an unprecedented pace due to the "overheating" policies of the Trump administration and tariff impacts [1][2] Fund Flows - Since the beginning of 2026, $104 billion has flowed into developed market funds in Europe and Japan, while only $25 billion has entered U.S. funds, indicating a significant shift in capital away from dollar assets [1][7] - The disparity in fund flows reflects a broader trend of capital outflow from the U.S., with notable inflows into the South Korean stock market, which saw its strongest four-week inflow since 2002, totaling $14.3 billion [7] Asset Performance - Year-to-date asset performance shows gold up 13.4% and oil up 9.5%, while U.S. stocks have slightly declined by 0.2%, and the dollar has dropped by 1.4% [5][12] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop of 24%, marking it as a clear loser in the current asset rotation [5] Historical Context - Hartnett draws parallels with historical market shifts, noting that major political and geopolitical events have historically triggered changes in asset leadership [8] - He suggests that the current environment marks the beginning of a new world order, with emerging markets and small-cap stocks poised to take the lead [12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. national debt is increasing at an alarming rate, with projections indicating that annual interest payments could rise from $1 trillion to $2.1 trillion over the next decade [13] - This growing debt burden may lead to the implementation of yield curve control, establishing a weak dollar as a new norm [13] Market Sentiment - Despite the outflow of funds from the U.S., market sentiment remains highly exuberant, with the Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.4, significantly above the sell threshold of 8 [14] - Conditions for a reversal of this sell signal include a significant increase in cash levels, large-scale short covering in bonds, and a reduction in tech stock positions to neutral levels [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2]. - Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. - The downward space for hog prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - Soybean meal prices will stabilize and rebound in the short term, and pay attention to position risks before the Spring Festival [6]. - Rubber prices may fluctuate [8]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern before the Spring Festival [9]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. - The bond market is bullish in the medium term but with weak short - term upward momentum [12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. - Steel prices may first decline and then rise after the Spring Festival [14]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, but the precious metals market had limited fluctuations. Silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations and is expected to consolidate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Gold**: There are internal differences in the US on tariff policies, and geopolitical uncertainties still exist. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has weakened, which is negative for gold. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Multiple reports point to an oversupply in the global oil market, and the growth rate of oil demand is lower than expected. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The hog price is stable and slightly stronger. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export data is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Although the overall inventory of oil mills is high, the supply of available contracts is tightening before the holiday, providing short - term support for the spot price. The price will stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Congo's copper production has increased, but there are uncertainties due to the complex political situation. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. - **Aluminum**: The US tariff barrier has led to a supply shortage, which further strengthens the bottom support of aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is affected by weather. The market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: The domestic steel market has entered the holiday mode, and the demand has stagnated. The steel price is stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [14]. Chemicals - **PTA**: The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand balance sheet shows inventory accumulation. PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and new production capacity is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. Others - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Monetary easing is the main theme, and the bond market is bullish in the medium term. However, the short - term upward momentum is weak [12].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人， 远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录得 4.3%，创2025年8月以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。 评：非农数据大幅超预期，但是贵金属波动有限，市场或进一 步等待美联储货币政策明朗，但是在沃什正式上任前，各方都 是猜测。白银或跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注 黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1222元/吨，价格暂 稳；纯碱周度产量77.43万吨，环比-1.22%；纯碱厂家总库存 158.11万吨，周上升2.39%；浮法玻璃开工率71.86%，周度持 平；全国浮法玻璃均价1107元/吨，环比上日持平；全国浮法玻 璃样本企业总库存5306.4万重箱，环比+0.95%。评：浮法玻璃 开工较稳，库存上升，华东市场操作偏淡，汽运陆续结束，个 别企业靠船运少量外发，下游多放假，市场成交有限。国内纯 碱市场持稳运行，成交气氛一般，个别企业产量提升，临近假 期，下游需求备货基本告一段落。纯碱供强需弱，新产能投放 压力大，预计短期维持震荡偏弱。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月12日 研究 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "risk prevention" is becoming a limiting factor for banks in holding long-term government bonds, with some banks reaching regulatory thresholds for the ratio of economic value change to tier 1 capital (ΔEVE/tier 1 capital) [1][2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - A significant portion of Chinese commercial banks has been acquiring long-term government bonds, with a net issuance of approximately 14 trillion yuan expected by 2025, including 12 trillion yuan for bonds with maturities of 10 years or more [2]. - The ΔEVE ratio is a key regulatory metric that measures potential maximum losses banks may face under different interest rate shock scenarios, with some major state-owned banks approaching a ΔEVE of 15% [2][5]. - International experiences indicate that "risk prevention" does not equate to rigid adherence to regulatory thresholds, as seen in Japan and the U.S., where regulatory measures have been adjusted based on operational realities [5][10]. Group 2: International Comparisons - Japan has adjusted its ΔEVE thresholds for smaller banks, allowing a higher ratio of 20% compared to 15% for larger banks, reflecting the operational context of these institutions [5]. - The U.S. has relaxed its supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requirements for large banks to enhance their ability to provide liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market, indicating a flexible approach to regulatory measures [10]. - Unlike Japan and Europe, the U.S. has minimal regulatory oversight on banks' interest rate risk, allowing banks to set their own ΔEVE thresholds without a mandated "red line" [10]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Monetary Policy - Ensuring macroeconomic stability is fundamental for effective risk prevention, with a focus on flexible fiscal and monetary policies that can adapt to economic cycles [11]. - Current economic conditions in China show weak internal demand, necessitating fiscal expansion to stabilize the overall economic and financial landscape [12]. - The People's Bank of China has significant room for balance sheet expansion, with total assets at 48.2 trillion yuan, indicating potential for increased liquidity support for government bond issuance [19].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-PVC】 华东SG-5型PVC 4760元/吨，环比上日-90元 /吨；PVC周产能利用率78.93%，上升0.19%；PVC社会库存 120.64万吨，环比增加2.45%；全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛 利-744元/吨；全国乙烯法PVC生产企业平均毛利21元/吨；国内 PVC管材样本企业开工37%，周环比持平。评：PVC生产企业假期 预期稳定生产，开工及产量高位稳增，行业库存快速进入节日 累库模式，内需处于传统淡季，下游开工弱稳，春节临近，部 分下游逐步放假，市场销售节后订单为主，原料电石价格预期 较稳。预计短期PVC市场价格震荡略偏弱。 【短评-黄金】伊朗与美国在阿曼举行的核谈判结束，双方 就继续对话达成共识。双方在阐明各自立场和诉求的同时，同 意在与各自政府进行磋商后，就下一轮对话作出决定。伊朗外 交部长阿拉格齐称，本轮美伊磋商是"良好开端"。评：美伊 谈判进行中，避险情绪减弱，利空黄金。美财长对美联储缩表 发表言论，给贵金属市场以稳定信心。黄金中期依然看高位震 荡，关注地缘扰动。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月09日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiumin ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the oil market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] - The economic downward pressure in the US increases, which is bearish for silver. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] - The short - term downward space of hog prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] - The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the sentiment of the oil market. The short - term palm oil price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] - In the short term, the steel price may continue to run in a narrow - range oscillation [4] - Affected by supply pressure, the soybean meal price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] - The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] - The methanol market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [6] - The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [7] - The PTA market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is in a short - term transition [8] - The short - term PVC market price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] - The rubber market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] - The gold market may experience increased fluctuations in the short term, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term to find a new balance [10] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for new drivers [10] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day on January 30. The resumption and cancellation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation affected the oil price. Before the new OPEC+ policy in March, the market follows geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] Silver - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than expected. The economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold's passive fluctuations, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] Hog - On February 3, the national wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% compared with the previous day, and the price of eggs decreased by 1.3%. The national hog price mainly declined yesterday due to increased slaughter and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 31, 2026, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the oil market sentiment. The short - term price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] Rebar - On February 4, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. With the cold air moving south and the approaching Spring Festival, the steel market activity decreased. The short - term steel price may continue to oscillate in a narrow range [4] Soybean Meal - On February 4, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased steadily. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is abundant. The price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] Silicon Iron - The starting rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 0.14%. The market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] Iron Ore - From January 26 to February 1, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at 45 ports decreased. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The demand side is weak, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] Methanol - The methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang increased. The port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise inventory also decreased. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and the downstream demand decreases. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Long - term Treasury Bond - The central bank requires to strengthen financial services and coordinate monetary and fiscal policies. The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash is stable. The output increased slightly, and the inventory increased. The float glass start - up increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] PTA - The polyester inventory increased slightly. There may be no new PTA maintenance plans in February. The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. The cost side has high - volatility crude oil [8] PVC - The PVC price increased, the production capacity utilization rate increased, and the social inventory increased. The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8] Rubber - The Thai rubber raw material price is stable. The natural rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire decreased in January 2026. The domestic rubber inventory increased. The market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] Gold - The US January ADP new employment is far lower than expected. The release of non - farm payrolls and CPI data may increase the market volatility. Gold is short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] Copper - Chile's official institution raises the 2026 copper price forecast. The supply is tight, and the demand is promising. The short - term price will continue to oscillate and repair [10] Aluminum - The global alumina production shows regional differentiation. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing statement did not make significant adjustments to its debt issuance strategy, aligning with market expectations, despite prior speculation about measures to lower long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Debt Issuance Strategy - The Treasury plans to maintain the auction sizes for nominal, long-term, and floating-rate bonds unchanged for "at least the next few quarters," a forward-looking guidance that has been in place for two years [1] - The Treasury is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's expansion of short-term Treasury bill purchases and the growing demand from the private sector for these bills [1] - The Treasury reiterated its assessment of the potential to expand the auction sizes for nominal coupon bonds and floating-rate bonds, focusing on structural demand trends and the potential costs and risks of different issuance schemes [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the statement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a daily high of 4.29%, indicating disappointment in the market over the lack of signals for reducing long-term debt supply [2] Group 3: Upcoming Refinancing Auctions - The Treasury announced a total refinancing auction amount of $125 billion for the upcoming week, including $58 billion in 3-year bonds, $42 billion in 10-year bonds, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [4] - This refinancing is expected to raise approximately $34.8 billion in new funds from private investors [4] Group 4: Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - The Treasury will maintain the current auction sizes for TIPS, having previously expanded TIPS auctions to stabilize their market share [5] - There was a divergence among traders regarding TIPS issuance policy, with some expecting no change while others speculated on an expansion in at least one of the three TIPS auctions this quarter [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Bond Purchases - The current scale of the Federal Reserve's short-term Treasury bill purchases reduces the risk of the Treasury overissuing short-term bills beyond investor capacity [6] - However, the Fed's purchasing plan post-April remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, who has previously advocated for reducing the Fed's securities portfolio [6] - Analysts believe that due to the ongoing large federal budget deficit (nearly $2 trillion annually) and the upcoming maturity of a significant amount of medium-term bonds, the Treasury will ultimately need to expand the issuance of coupon bonds [6]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息 不止100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。 不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标 之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 评：美联储内部依然存在诸多分歧，市场开始推测沃什上台之 后的政策变动情况。美国政府停摆危机解除，或提升风险偏 好。白银或跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄 金、白银相互影响。 【短评-PTA】1月PTA月均负荷在77.2%附近，较12月提升 3.9%，较去年同期下降2.3%。目前PTA负荷至76.6%。评：2月来 看，新凤鸣原计划有套装置存检修计划，不过目前推迟。2月 PTA可能无新增检修计划，而需求端在春节前后，终端面临放 假，聚酯负荷降至年内低点，PTA供需预期偏弱，预计大幅累 库。成本端，PX供需预期偏弱，成本端原油高波动。PTA短线过 渡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月04日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：ca ...