今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel统计全国45个港口进口铁矿库存 总量15054.65万吨，环比下降75.06万吨；日均疏港量329.92万 吨，增2.97万吨；在港船舶数量120条，增4条。评：发运保持 增加，前期到港冲高后继续回落，近期到港节奏波动较大，关 注后期到港量变化;需求端，铁水小幅走弱，虽然大规模检修尚 未出现，但随着利润持续压缩以及钢企检修季的到来，铁水仍 有季节性走弱预期。库存方面，到港量下滑，累库压力缓解， 补库需求有待释放。铁水产出虽然仍有季节性下降预期，但短 期仍有支撑，补库需求暂未明显释放，短期矿价震荡偏强运 行。 【短评-黄金】多位美联储官员释放降息信号。美联储"三 把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称，随着劳动力市场降温，美 联储在近期仍有进一步降息的空间。美联储理事米兰也表示， 如果他的投票在下一次议息中具有决定性作用，他将支持降息 25个基点。评：美联储降息预期增加，但是由于就业数据缺 席，降息的决策仍然具有很大不确定性。黄金承压，中期或高 位震荡。关注美元指数对黄金的影响。 投资咨询中心 2025年11月24日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiumi ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals, with potential for mid - term high - level oscillations [1] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The rebar futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range at a low level [4] - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [6] - The LH2601 contract for live pigs may decline in the short term and oscillate at the bottom [7] - The soybean meal 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - The palm oil price will oscillate at a low level [8] - The long - term treasury bond market will oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [8] - Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term [9] - The crude oil price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: On November 17, Fed officials had different views on a December interest - rate cut. The market probability of a December rate cut dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals. Mid - term high - level oscillations are possible. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - **Silver**: Although there are rumors about Trump's tariff rebate, the change in the Fed's December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, pressuring precious metals. Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the divergence between gold and silver [9] Agricultural Products - **Rubber**: Thai raw rubber prices are 56.6 Thai baht/kg. Hainan's glue - to - whole - milk price is 16,100 yuan/ton. Due to cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand, raw material prices may remain high. However, with expected increases in overseas ship arrivals, insufficient terminal demand, and expected declines in downstream enterprise开工, natural rubber is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil refinery operating rates are slowly rising, and crushing volumes are high. Demand is relatively stable, and soybean meal inventory is increasing, limiting price increases. The domestic breeding industry is weak, which may limit demand growth. The 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - **Palm Oil**: From November 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.5%. Foreign quotes are low, and the price - performance ratio has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will oscillate at a low level [8] - **Live Pigs**: As of November 17, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter is 123.53 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 33.61%. Farmers want to raise prices, but terminal demand is insufficient, and slaughterhouses are not enthusiastic about purchasing. The price is under pressure. The LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [7] Industrial Metals - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.81%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.8%. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and production is decreasing. Demand is also falling due to the off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is decreasing. There may be policy benefits in December, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [4] - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 9,076.01 tons, and the daily consumption is 292.63 tons. The impact of the hurricane has ended, and the shipping end is stable. Demand may decline seasonally. Inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - **Coking Coal**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 71.64%. Supply is still tight in China. Coke production is declining, and downstream procurement has slowed down. The futures market is under pressure, but the fundamentals still provide support, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of November 14, the number of US online drilling oil wells increased by 3 compared to the previous week. The attack on a Russian oil storage facility has raised supply concerns. However, the overall supply is excessive, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **Asphalt**: The weekly output is 51.4 tons, and the inventory is decreasing. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream purchasing is cautious. Refinery profits have been boosted, suppressing the asphalt price, which is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu is 2,047 yuan/ton. The domestic operating rate is high, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Soda Ash**: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,263 yuan/ton. Production is slightly decreasing, and inventory is relatively stable. The glass industry's operating rate is slightly decreasing. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - **PVC**: The price of SG - 5 type in East China is 4,520 yuan/ton. Production is expected to remain high, but profits are poor. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign trade growth is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences regarding a potential December interest rate cut. The end of the US government shutdown has led to simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the exchange - rate, increasing market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The natural rubber market is currently in a state of mixed long and short factors. Prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations due to factors such as supply disruptions and inventory pressure [2]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation in the short term, with attention on raw material cost adjustments [4]. - The coking coal market is in a stalemate between long and short forces. The main contract has seen a pullback at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and future supply conditions should be closely monitored [5]. - The steel market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term, with limited upside and downside potential [6]. - The live hog market's LH2601 contract still faces downward pressure in the short term, with bottom - end oscillations and range - bound trading [6]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation between 3030 - 3090 in the short term [7]. - The palm oil market has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. - The long - term treasury bond market is expected to have a slightly bullish medium - term oscillation, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The silver market is short - term bearish but bullish in the medium term, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a weak oscillation, with supply - surplus concerns being the core factor determining price direction [10]. - The PTA market is expected to be range - bound, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [12]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [13]. - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Fed has internal differences on a December rate cut. The end of the government shutdown has increased market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and medium - term high - level oscillating. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are stable, and domestic inventories show different trends. The domestic production area is entering a reduction period, and overseas rainfall has affected supply. However, high inventory and a large price difference with synthetic rubber restrict price increases. Short - term price range - bound oscillations are expected [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of manganese silicon have increased slightly. Cost is in a stalemate, demand support is weakening, and supply is expected to remain high. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate and production of coking coal mines have increased. The market is in a long - short stalemate due to supply - side support and energy supply concerns. The main contract has pulled back, and actual supply should be monitored [5]. Rebar - This week, rebar production, inventory, and demand have all decreased. The steel market has weak supply and demand, with a larger inventory decline and cost support. Short - term narrow - range oscillations are expected [6]. Live Hogs - The national live hog price has continued to decline. Weak terminal demand, low slaughterhouse acquisition enthusiasm, and high breeding - end sales pressure have led to downward pressure on the LH2601 contract [6]. Soybean Meal - Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil - mill开机率 is rising, and demand is stable. Inventory is increasing, restricting price increases. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [7]. Palm Oil - Indian palm oil imports have decreased significantly in October due to high inventory. The domestic market is in an adjustment phase with limited supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The growth of social financing in October has slowed, and the marginal effect of monetary policy easing has weakened. Macro - control may shift to promoting consumption. The bond market is slightly bullish in the medium term, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw [9]. Silver - The end of the US government shutdown has reduced risk appetite. Silver is short - term bearish and medium - term bullish, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. Crude Oil - The IEA has further raised the supply - surplus pressure forecast. The market is concerned about supply surplus, and prices are expected to operate in a weak oscillation [10]. PTA - PTA production has decreased, polyester inventory has decreased, and demand is fair. With crude oil oscillating weakly, PTA is expected to be range - bound, and waiting and seeing is advisable [12]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and waiting for further stabilization is recommended [12]. Soda Ash - The price of soda ash has risen slightly, production has decreased, and inventory has changed slightly. The glass market has weak demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. Plastic - The price of LLDPE has increased slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen. Downstream demand is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic downward pressure in the US is increasing, raising the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are still internal differences within the Fed. Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner [1]. - The US government shutdown is about to end, risk appetite has increased. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. - The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. - The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. - The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. - The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner due to weak supply - demand drivers [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - According to ADP statistics, from October 1 - 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total loss of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US economic downward pressure increases the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar index has weak upward momentum, and gold is volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. Crude Oil - A Reuters survey of five analysts shows that as of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by about 1.2 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 6 million barrels; US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 1.2 - 4 million barrels. Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the expectation of the end of the US government shutdown has led to three consecutive days of oil price increases. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner. The OPEC and IEA November "Oil Market Monthly Reports" will be released on November 12 and 13 respectively [1]. Silver - The US Senate passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government shutdown. The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the shutdown, and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the Senate - passed temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday. The end of the government shutdown has increased risk appetite. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are both positive for the bond market. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. Hog - According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, up 0.01 point from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from the previous day. The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress was a bit slow and still under pressure, while the slaughter of large - weight hogs by small farmers increased, and the terminal demand was insufficient. The supply exceeded the demand, and the price mainly adjusted weakly. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short - term and will oscillate at the bottom. The breeding side can hedge in a timely manner according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. Soybean Meal - According to Mysteel statistics, on the previous trading day, the total sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous trading day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 125,100 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the far - month basis sales volume was 189,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 53.51%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous day. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills is slowly recovering, and the crushing volume is at a relatively high level, while the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory limits the upward space of spot prices. The purchasing sentiment of downstream feed enterprises is average, and they mainly replenish inventory based on existing inventory levels. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 3030 - 3090 in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. The implementation of Canada's clean - fuel regulations and local government blending policies has led to a rise in rapeseed oil prices, driving up palm oil prices. Domestically, the basis prices in various regions, especially in South China, have increased rapidly, and the market trading is light, mainly fulfilling previous contracts. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 88,800 tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2060 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The domestic weekly methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to resume operation this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. Short - fiber - The production of Chinese polyester short - fiber this cycle was 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.21%. The average comprehensive production capacity utilization rate during this cycle was 88.37%, a week - on - week increase of 2.74%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber factories on the previous trading day was 41.96%, a decrease of 28.51% from the previous trading day. Supply has increased while demand has remained flat, with a slight inventory build - up this week. After the sales - to - production ratio reached a high, it declined, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0352 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 769 yuan/ton, and the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 465 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 39.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1264 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The weekly production of soda ash was 746,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%. The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. Synthetic Rubber - As of November 11, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 6975 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - polybutadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton. As of November 11, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 237 yuan/ton. Based on the butadiene price, the static cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber was estimated to be 8500 yuan/ton. On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. The raw material side is still under pressure from large domestic supply. On the demand side, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are less than expected. Some enterprises plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. There is a lack of substantial positive factors. The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities having various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external policies [1][3][4]. - Some commodities like焦煤,黄金, and白银 have relatively positive outlooks in the short - to - long term, while others such as沥青, rubber, and methanol are expected to be weak [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **焦煤**: Domestic supply is disrupted, import supplement is limited, and the spot market is stable and slightly strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot is short - term easy to rise and hard to fall, while the futures may oscillate [1]. - **螺纹钢**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but the cost support from winter storage and potential policy benefits may lead to a low - level wide - range oscillation [3]. - **铁矿石**: After the peak of arrivals, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance. The price may oscillate and strengthen after a rapid decline [4]. - **白银**: Short - term oscillation and long - term bullish due to the changing risk sentiment and the divergence from gold [8]. **Agricultural Products** - **生猪**: Supply pressure is large, terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the price has short - term downward pressure [5]. - **棕榈油**: The production reduction expectation fails, and the supply pressure restricts the price increase. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [5]. - **菜粕**: Supply is rigidly short, and the price decline risk is reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **沥青**: Cost support weakens, and the off - peak demand increases the downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **橡胶**: Demand lacks substantial benefits, and the trade barriers and inventory issues lead to a weak outlook [9]. - **甲醇**: The port inventory accumulates slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - **纯碱**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. **Others** - **长期国债**: Economic recovery does not interfere with monetary policy, and the bond market has increasing positive factors. It is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [10]. - **塑料**: Supply is high, demand is off - peak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international oil price continues to decline due to increased US crude oil inventories, and it will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, with the oversupply pressure slightly easing in Q1 next year [1]. - Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term and has limited downside space in the short term, affected by the US government shutdown, Sino - US relations, and the high - level US dollar index [2]. - Synthetic rubber will run weakly due to supply increments and demand - side constraints [4]. - PTA has weak fundamental drivers with clear supply increments, stable demand, and a slightly accumulating balance sheet [4]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside space under the background of loose supply and pressured demand [5]. - Coking coal's upward drive weakens after the macro - level positive factors are realized [5]. - Steel prices are expected to decline slightly in the short term due to approaching off - season and potential supply contractions [6]. - Live hog prices may still decline after a rebound due to large supply pressure and unchanged terminal demand [6]. - Palm oil will run weakly in the short term due to unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices have a lower risk of decline due to supply shortages, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [8]. - Silver will oscillate with a bullish bias due to positive economic data in the US and pressure from the rising US dollar index [8]. - Long - term treasury bonds will oscillate with a bullish bias in the medium term due to economic pressure and positive factors from the central bank [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Caustic soda's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - As of October 31, US total crude oil inventories (including strategic reserves) were 830.763 million barrels, an increase of 5.7 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude inventories were 421.168 million barrels, an increase of 5.2 million barrels; gasoline inventories were 206.009 million barrels, a decrease of 4.73 million barrels [1]. - US daily crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels as of October 31, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 151,000 barrels from the same period last year [1]. Gold - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record, and may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [2]. Synthetic Rubber - From January to October 2025, domestic butadiene production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.5%; in October, the production was 457,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.47% [4]. - In October, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.39% [4]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, with POY at 14 - 23 days, FDY at 12 - 22 days, and DTY at 13 - 25 days [4]. Iron Ore - From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 3.3141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2298 million tons [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,000 tons [5]. Steel - As of a certain period, the national building materials social inventory was 638,400 tons, an increase of 2,180 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 347,750 tons, a decrease of 8,350 tons; and the production was 397,070 tons, an increase of 1,470 tons [6]. Live Hogs - On November 5, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.19 yuan/kg, a 0.9% increase from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - In October, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 2.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.31%, reaching an eight - year high [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 44th week of 2025, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China was 514,800 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week [8]. Silver - The US October ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, the new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, the service payment price index rose to 70, and the employment index rose to 48.2 [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6 (previous value 52.9), and the composite PMI was 51.8 (previous value 52.5) [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the weekly production was 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,082 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.09%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the port sample inventory was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons; and the sample enterprise production inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 442,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84% [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The divergence within the Fed has increased, making the December interest rate cut more uncertain. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the safe - haven sentiment has cooled significantly, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - For rubber, although the overall shipment pressure remains high in November and the utilization rate of production capacity is restricted, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts in China provide medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, the end of the traditional peak demand season, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - The coke spot market is running strongly. Although the coking profit is under pressure and the steel mill's production is restricted, the hot metal is expected to rebound after a short - term decline, and the third round of price increase has started [5]. - For silicon iron, the high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. - The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6]. - For silver, the short - term is in a shock, and it is still bullish in the long term due to the increasing economic downward pressure in the US and the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short term due to the significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and the expected inventory accumulation [8]. - The price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PX should be treated with a shock perspective. Although the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level and the PXN processing fee is under pressure, the stable crude oil provides support for the lower price [11]. - Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and the price may be in a shock state. Only when the geopolitical conflict intensifies can the price center rise [13]. - Polypropylene is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - Soda ash is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold**: The divergence within the Fed makes the December interest rate cut uncertain. Sino - US relations ease, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - **Silver**: The US economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver in the short term, but the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts is bullish in the long term. It is in a shock - bullish state with limited downward space [7]. - **Steel (including rebar)**: Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - **Coke**: The coke spot market is running strongly. The third round of price increase has started, and the futures price is expected to be stable [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The domestic market is weak in the short term [8]. - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The overall shipment pressure is high in November, but the low inventory in China provides medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PX**: It should be treated with a shock perspective. The high load of Asian and domestic PX and the pressure on PXN processing fees coexist with the support from stable crude oil [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price has stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and it may be in a shock state [13]. - **Polypropylene**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Soda Ash**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6].

Key Points of the Research Report Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations of various commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, with expectations of price trends such as oscillation, weakening, or strengthening based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Metals - **螺纹钢 (Rebar)**: Fundamentals continue to improve, but inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. After a short - term macro sentiment cools, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. However, there is cost support and potential policy benefits, so there is a rebound drive after a weak adjustment [1] - **黄金 (Gold)**: There are differences in the Fed's decision on another interest rate cut, increasing market volatility. Although the US government shutdown has reduced the risk - aversion sentiment, the buying power of gold remains strong. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - **焦煤 (Coking Coal)**: Supply is affected by frequent inspections, mine production cuts, and other factors, with limited increase. Demand remains stable, and the upstream coal mines have reduced their inventories to a low level in recent years. The coking coal spot market is stable and slightly strong, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **铁矿石 (Iron Ore)**: Supply has short - term disturbances, and demand has decreased significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not obvious. After the macro factors are realized, the market may turn to fundamental trading, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **白银 (Silver)**: Positive information from China - US talks and the better - than - expected economic recovery in the Eurozone have increased risk appetite and boosted silver. It is expected to oscillate upwards with limited downside space [7] Agricultural Products - **生猪 (Live Pigs)**: In early November, the market supply of pigs is becoming more abundant, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened. Terminal consumption has not been significantly boosted. The price of live pigs is expected to decline slowly, and the main contract LH2601 is under short - term downward pressure [5] - **菜粕 (Rapeseed Meal)**: Supply is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. The domestic rapeseed crushing has basically stagnated, and the oil mill operating rate is low. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6] - **棕榈油 (Palm Oil)**: Affected by rapeseed oil, the futures price has broken through the previous low. Although domestic spot demand has been released, terminal consumption has not improved, and future arrivals are expected to be large. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] Energy - **原油 (Crude Oil)**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in December, and the market will be under pressure for the rest of the year. The oversupply pressure will be slightly relieved in the first quarter of next year. It should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [11] - **沥青 (Bitumen)**: The capacity utilization rate has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the peak - season demand is not strong, increasing the downward pressure. The overall trend is weak - oscillation [12] Financial Products - **长期国债 (Long - term Treasury Bonds)**: The PMI data shows increased economic downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be intensified. The open - market trading of treasury bonds is likely to lower interest rates, which is a positive factor for the bond market. Due to liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **甲醇 (Methanol)**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The inland market is weak, and the port basis is weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2210 [8] - **纯碱 (Soda Ash)**: The float glass industry is stable with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high - level supply and low - level demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1240 [9] - **聚丙烯 (Polypropylene)**: Supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to concentrated equipment maintenance, and commercial inventories have decreased. Demand has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. The cost support is strong. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6620 [10] Rubber - **橡胶 (Rubber)**: In November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization. However, China's rubber inventories have continued to decline, providing medium - term support. The downward space of rubber prices may be limited [13]

Group 1: Core Views - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes enhancing the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market, improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of market systems, and strengthening the effectiveness and deterrence of regulatory enforcement [1] - The measures align with the "14th Five-Year Plan" development goals and the blueprint for building a financial powerhouse, aiming for high-quality development of the capital market [1] Group 2: Stability Measures - The CSRC aims to cultivate high-quality listed companies and improve the "long money, long investment" ecosystem to solidify the internal stability of the market [2] - Market experts suggest enhancing governance training for management and shareholders of listed companies, increasing supervision, and promoting regular dividends and buybacks to foster long-term investment confidence [2][3] - There is a focus on increasing the proportion of long-term capital investments, such as insurance funds and pensions, to enhance market stability [2] Group 3: Activation of Growth - The capital market's core value is to serve the real economy, requiring higher inclusiveness and adaptability to provide precise financing support for various types of enterprises [4] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, enhancing the multi-tiered equity market's nurturing function [4][5] Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Framework - High-quality development of the capital market relies on strict regulation and legal guarantees, with a focus on combating securities and futures violations [6] - The CSRC aims to enhance information disclosure regulation to maintain market transparency and fairness [6] - Digital and intelligent regulatory technologies are highlighted as key areas for improving regulatory effectiveness and investor protection [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes enhancing the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market, improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of market systems, and strengthening the effectiveness and deterrence of regulatory enforcement to promote high-quality development of the capital market [1] Group 1: Stability Mechanisms - The CSRC aims to cultivate high-quality listed companies and improve the "long money long investment" ecosystem to strengthen the internal stability of the market [1] - Market participants expect that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to enhance the quality of listed companies and create a favorable environment for long-term capital investment [2] - The proportion of institutional investors is expected to increase significantly, enhancing the market participation and influence of long-term capital such as insurance funds and pension funds, which will reduce market volatility and highlight long-term investment value [2] Group 2: Market Adaptability - The core value of the capital market is to serve the real economy, which requires higher inclusiveness and adaptability to provide precise financing support for various types and stages of enterprises [3] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, enhancing the financing capabilities of the multi-tiered capital market to better meet the diverse needs of the real economy [3][4] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Framework - High-quality development of the capital market relies on a fair order and legal protection under strict regulation, with a focus on combating various securities and futures violations [5] - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of transparency in information disclosure to maintain market order and ensure fair practices [5] - Digitalization and intelligence in regulatory practices are seen as crucial for enhancing regulatory effectiveness and investor protection [6]