美股跌，黄金跌，美国国债跌，唯独美元上涨——熟悉的场景背后，是熟悉的配方——市场对美联储降 息的押注减弱。 昨晚三位地区联储主席发表讲话，给市场冷水。 19:00左右，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，目前似乎并无需急于降息。关税上调将增加年底前通胀上 升的风险，目前的通胀风险大于劳动力市场出现问题的风险。 20:00左右，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，仍预计年内降息一次（而市场预期的是两次），在当今 环境下，任何点预测或前景判断都伴随很大的置信区间。 24:00左右，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，如果明天就要做出决定，她不会支持降息。 三位官员演讲的时间贯穿美股开盘前后，接连放话，观点雷同，这不是巧合，而是刻意安排的"预期管 理"，尤其是首位出场者施密德接受的是CNBC专访。市场原本认为9月降息的概率有80%，昨晚直接被 打到65%，最后又回到70%左右。 鲍威尔今晚22:00将发表演讲，而昨晚"新美联储通讯社"突然发了一篇写鲍威尔生活状态的文章： 鲍威尔告诉同事，并没有感到压力重重。72岁的他仍然保持着自己人生中最好的状态，每周游泳三次， 并跟随私人教练锻炼。这种养生法有助于缓解压力，尽管有时会半夜惊醒。 这是一 ...

本周，全球金融市场的目光聚焦于美国怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔——美联储年度经济政策研讨会将在此举行，市场期待从中获取 关于未来利率路径的重要信号。 根据议程安排，美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五（8月22日）晚间10点发表主题演讲。投资者普遍预期，他将就美联储后续 货币政策取向及其独立性等关键议题传递信息。 目前市场对降息预期持续升温。联邦基金利率期货定价显示，交易员预计美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的概率已超过92%， 并且多数观点认为年内还将迎来至少一次降息。 但也正因如此，一旦鲍威尔在讲话中释放与市场预期相左的信号，可能引发显著波动。Slimmon表示，住宅建筑类股的强势反弹 本身就体现出市场已高度确信降息在即，若鲍威尔传递相反信息，"市场将更容易遭遇抛售压力"。 摩根士丹利在最新研究报告中提出，不同于市场期待的"降息绿灯"，本次杰克逊霍尔会议更可能成为美联储反击过度宽松预期 的舞台，鲍威尔或作出偏"鹰派"的表态。 该行分析称，美联储目前的政策核心在于"保留选择权"——尤其是在八月全面就业与通胀数据发布之前，央行不希望被市场预 期"捆绑手脚"。报告强调："如果美联储放任市场以近乎确定的姿态为降息定价，那么到 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that S&P 500 companies significantly exceeded market expectations in Q2 earnings, with an overall EPS growth of 11% year-over-year, surpassing the prior 4% market forecast [1][2] - The report highlights that 60% of the companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations by more than one standard deviation, marking one of the highest frequencies of earnings surprises on record [1][3] - Companies maintained profit margins despite tariff pressures through strategies such as supplier negotiations, supply chain adjustments, cost-cutting measures, and passing on price increases to consumers [2][3] Group 2 - The softening of the US dollar has provided additional momentum for sales growth among S&P 500 companies, contributing to accelerated revenue growth in Q2 [4][5] - Large multinational companies have benefited significantly from currency fluctuations, while smaller companies face greater risks in sales growth due to their inability to fully capitalize on the advantages of a weaker dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that contrary to market expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, persistent service sector inflation may lead to a more hawkish stance from Chairman Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market traders have locked in a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by a weak July employment report and downward revisions of historical data [5][6]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that as long as inflation data does not show a catastrophic spike, a preventive rate cut is likely, leading to a "one-way street" towards a September cut [6][4]. Group 2: Service Sector Inflation Concerns - Morgan Stanley identifies service sector inflation as the real issue, overshadowing external factors like tariffs, with core CPI rising from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year in July [7][8]. - Service prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while goods prices rose only 0.2%, indicating a more persistent inflationary trend driven by domestic factors [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell faces the challenge of managing market expectations without being cornered into a rate cut, as failing to cut rates could lead to significant market turmoil [9][10]. - The Fed's goal is to retain flexibility, especially before the complete release of employment and inflation data, to avoid being forced into a decision by market pricing [9][10]. Group 4: Implications for Future Policy - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be a critical moment for Powell to signal that inflation concerns are more pressing than employment issues, aiming to break the market's certainty about a rate cut [12]. - Investors should prepare for potential market corrections due to discrepancies in expectations, as Powell's message may emphasize patience until more data is available [12].

Group 1 - The July non-farm payroll report showed a significant decline, with only 73,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, marking the worst performance of the year [2][5] - The previous two months' data were revised downwards by a total of 258,000 jobs, which contradicts the narrative of a thriving economy [2][5] - The political implications of the data manipulation allegations are significant, as they highlight concerns over the independence of statistical agencies in the U.S. [2][13] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals are deteriorating under the pressures of high interest rates, tariffs, and tight fiscal policies, leading to a contraction in the manufacturing sector [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have increased corporate financing costs, contributing to a decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI to 48% [8] - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised import costs, adversely affecting industries such as automotive and steel, and leading to job losses in agriculture and manufacturing [8][9] Group 3 - The political maneuvering surrounding employment data is seen as a strategy to influence public perception ahead of elections, with historical patterns indicating data manipulation during election years [5][11] - The reduction in foreign labor has created labor shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant workers, further complicating the employment landscape [11] - The ongoing debate over the integrity of employment data could undermine the credibility of U.S. economic policies and the Federal Reserve's decision-making [13][15]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the upcoming US-Iran nuclear negotiations and OPEC's potential production increases [1][3] - As of June 27, international oil prices showed slight increases, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28, while Brent crude oil settled at $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 [1] - OPEC is expected to announce an increase in production by 410,000 barrels per day for August, reflecting Saudi Arabia's efforts to regain market share [1][3] Group 2: OPEC's Strategy - OPEC has shifted its strategy from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "increased production to secure market share," with Saudi Arabia leading this approach [3] - The organization has implemented significant production increases over the past few months to punish member countries that have exceeded production quotas [1][3] - OPEC's gradual release of production signals aims to manage market expectations and prevent excessive price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Seasonal demand, particularly during the summer travel peak, combined with low US crude oil inventories, is providing fundamental support for oil prices [4] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and easing trade tensions further boosts demand-side dynamics [4] - Equinor's $2 billion Fram Sør oil and gas development project highlights the ongoing economic viability of traditional oil and gas projects amid the energy transition [2][4] Group 4: Geopolitical Risk and Price Volatility - The geopolitical risk premium in the spot market has significantly decreased from a peak of $15 per barrel to less than $1 due to the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement [3] - The US's shift in policy to support Iranian oil exports has accelerated the restructuring of geopolitical rules in the oil market [3] - The upcoming US-Iran negotiations will determine the pace of Iran's 5.7 million barrels per day production capacity release, impacting supply expectations [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's economic thought, particularly regarding boosting consumption as a key driver for high-quality development [1][2][3] - The provincial government is committed to expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption as a vital strategy for economic growth, aiming to unlock the potential of domestic demand [1][3] - Suggestions were made to enhance financial services, develop new economic engines, and stimulate various sectors such as tourism and sports to upgrade consumption structures and optimize the consumption environment [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting called for continuous learning and understanding of policies aimed at increasing income, reducing burdens, and enhancing consumer willingness, while also focusing on creating effective demand and high-quality supply [2] - There is a focus on improving the consumption system and policy framework, encouraging local governments to explore innovative measures to stabilize and expand consumption [3] - A specialized report on "Boosting Consumption and Strengthening Expectation Management" was presented to provide insights into effective strategies for enhancing consumer confidence [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market jumped 1.26% amid international capital reacting to U.S. President Trump's management of expectations regarding potential military action against Iran [1] - Trump's decision to delay military action against Iran for two weeks aligns with Israel's urgency to target Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow nuclear site [1] Geopolitical Risks - Iran's missile attacks have decreased in intensity, averaging 20-30 high-intensity missiles daily, but threats to Israeli targets in Europe have emerged [2] - The Iraqi Shiite militia "Hezbollah" has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. intervenes in the Israel-Iran conflict, leading to a decline in shipping traffic through the strait [2] Financial Developments - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched a cross-border payment system, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for cross-border remittances [3] - Major Chinese banks involved in the cross-border payment system saw stock increases of around 2% [3] - Insurance stocks also surged, with companies like China Life and New China Life rising over 4% due to stable investment returns [3] Industry Innovations - China's domestic EUV lithography machine has achieved a significant milestone with a production yield exceeding 70%, marking a critical point in the development of high-end chip manufacturing [6] - This advancement indicates a potential shift in the global semiconductor landscape, reducing reliance on foreign technology [6] Company-Specific Insights - China Coal Energy reported a decline in revenue and profit due to falling coal prices, with average prices for various coal types down significantly compared to the previous year [7] - The company is implementing cost-reduction measures and has seen its major shareholder increase their stake, reflecting confidence in the company's future [8]

Group 1: Political and Capital Dynamics - The current negotiations between the US and China focus on implementation rather than deepening, with significant capital already positioned to stabilize expectations before major announcements [2] - The strategic value of key raw materials, such as rare earths, is highlighted in the context of global supply chain restructuring, with some overseas manufacturers having only 2-3 weeks of inventory left [4] - The unexpected decline in US CPI is altering global capital flows, leading to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September, reflecting deeper economic dynamics [5][7] Group 2: Market Behavior and Investment Strategies - The market is currently characterized by volatility, with a paradox where nearly 4,000 stocks have risen since April, yet this has not translated into widespread individual gains, indicating a "selective bull market" [8] - The behavior of institutional investors is crucial, as they tend to accumulate shares during market fluctuations rather than panic selling, which is essential for understanding market movements [10] - The phenomenon of "shakeout" in stock movements illustrates how major players exploit retail investors' psychological weaknesses, leading to forced selling during temporary downturns [11][13] Group 3: Data-Driven Investment Evolution - Ordinary investors face challenges such as filtering information noise, managing emotions, and recognizing behavioral patterns, which can be addressed through a data-driven decision-making framework [14][16] - The importance of aligning investment methods with individual risk tolerance is emphasized, as there are no universal truths in capital markets, only evolving survival strategies [14]

Group 1 - The essence of "stabilizing expectations" is to stabilize confidence, which is rooted in the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and policy implementation [2][3] - Effective management and guidance of expectations require timely and decisive policy actions, especially during periods of market volatility [3] - A coordinated approach to policy implementation enhances the effectiveness of measures aimed at stabilizing expectations and boosting market confidence [3][4] Group 2 - Major strategies and key reforms play a crucial role in stabilizing expectations, with a focus on improving the business environment and facilitating inbound consumption [5][6] - The "Two New" policies have successfully activated consumer potential and driven investment growth by addressing both traditional and emerging demands [4][5] - A favorable business environment, exemplified by efficient processes in places like Hangzhou, is essential for fostering enterprise growth and enhancing market expectations [5]