新质生产力勃发奔涌，科技创新突飞猛进，城乡面貌日新月异，快速发展变化的中国为世界注入稳定 性，正说明预期稳定不等于一成不变、停滞不前。洞察大势、遵循规律，在历史前进的逻辑中前进，在 时代发展的潮流中发展，便不惧一时一地的波动、眼前暂时的风雨——这何尝不是一种更深层次的预 期。 历史有其规律和逻辑，文明有其方向和轨迹，和平、发展、合作、共赢的潮流不可阻挡。坚定站在历史 正确一边、站在公平正义一边，以人民之心为心、以天下之利为利的中国，将以推动构建人类命运共同 体的务实行动形塑世界关于自身的预期，也为世界大同、天下一家的愿景预期蓄势夯基。 说回"路线"，小说《长安的荔枝》中，主人公李善德为了将鲜荔枝从岭南运到长安，耗费大量人力物力 财力反复试验，才最终找到一条"最优路线"。如今指尖轻点，路径规划、预估时间一目了然，能轻松实 现预期清晰、心中有数。 影响选择的关键因素，在于"预期"。日常生活中，人们往往会倾向于预期更稳定、意外更少的选项，因 为越稳定的预期，意味着节奏愈可掌控、收益愈可预料。由日常生活到经济生活，同理。稳定的预期， 是人们下决心、作决策时的重要锚点，是信心与行动的基石。由此，便不难理解为何许多地方优 ...

综合分析与未来展望。邓正红软实力理论为理解当前油价波动提供了系统框架。 油价走低是多重软实力要素共振的结果：规则重构（如乌克兰和平谈判） 削弱地缘溢价，预期管理失效（如供应过剩担忧）主导市场情绪，软硬实力协同失衡（如欧佩克战略转型）压制价值创新。未来走势取决于地缘政治进展、 制裁力度及全球经济复苏态势，凸显规则重构与心理预期在能源市场中的主导地位。 这一现象印证了邓正红关于"宇宙本质是隐性规则与显性物质的动态平 衡系统"的核心观点，揭示了能源软实力在全球化背景下的复杂作用机制。 软实力竞争进入"规则-预期"新阶段。就短期来看，油价将维持每桶58~63美元区间震荡，波动率收窄，市场进入"基本面主导、预期修正"的慢变量周期。就 中期来看，若美乌协议落地，俄罗斯原油出口路径重构，全球供应格局将进入"去地缘化"新阶段，软实力竞争焦点将转向，包括欧佩克能否主导"可控增 产"规则，中国能否构建"非美元计价+稳定采购"新体系，绿色能源价值升级是否加速削弱石油软实力的长期基础。就长期来看，石油软实力的终极形态， 是"数字精度×绿色效度"融合的新型能源治理能力，即通过智能预测、碳足迹管理、供应链透明化，实现从"资源控制"到"价 ...

每经AI快讯，全国发展和改革工作会议12至13日在北京召开。会议强调，扎扎实实做好明年发展改革 重点工作。要深入领会党中央战略意图，坚持因地制宜，提高规划质量，加强规划内容审核衔接，把党 的二十届四中全会《建议》确定的各项决策部署和工作要求落到实处。同时，加强经济监测预警分析， 完善政策工具箱，加强预期管理，做好今明两年政策衔接、工作衔接，推动政策靠前发力，实现良好开 局。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

出台实施增量政策 韩文秀：明年还将根据形势变化 12月13日，2025-2026中国经济年会召开，主题为"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展 为'十五五'开好局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展改革委副秘书 长肖渭明，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣发表演讲。 韩文秀表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进，提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节，切实提升宏 观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，先后出台实施了一系列政策措施，明年还将根据 形势变化出台实施增量政策。要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。市场经 济很大程度上是预期经济，要健全预期管理机制，做好经济宣传和舆论引导，及时回应市场关切，有效 提振社会信心。 要深入扩大高水平对外开放，进一步拓展中间品贸易。培育服务出口新增长点，引导外资更多投向先进 制造、现代服务、高新技术、节能降碳环保的领域，扎实推动共建"一带一路"高质量发展，研究一批扩 大自主开放单边开放的新举措。以海南自贸港全岛封关为契机，不断完善政策制度体系，加快推进区域 和双边贸易投资协定进程，扩大和丰富高标准自由贸易区域网络。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Economic Performance - The overall economic indicators for this year are expected to meet targets, with a growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [1]. - The International Monetary Fund and other institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth for the next two years [1]. Policy Implementation - In 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, focusing on maintaining stable economic growth, employment, and price stability [2]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [2]. Consumer Market - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching nearly 60% by November [3]. - Plans to enhance consumer spending include implementing a rural income increase plan and improving basic pensions for urban and rural residents [3]. Investment Expansion - There is substantial investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and social welfare improvements, with plans to increase central budget investment and optimize local government bond usage [4]. - Measures will be taken to stimulate private investment and shift fixed asset investment towards stabilization [4]. Technological Innovation - The establishment of major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area has made significant progress [5]. - Support for basic research and the development of new technologies will be prioritized, alongside enhancing intellectual property protection [6]. Market Regulation - The government will continue to promote a unified national market and regulate local government economic activities, including a list of encouraged and prohibited investment practices [7]. - Efforts will be made to improve the business environment and deepen reforms to attract foreign investment [8]. Environmental Initiatives - The government aims to achieve carbon peak and promote green energy sources, with a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries [10]. - Plans include the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories to foster sustainable development [10]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment policies will be prioritized to address the current supply-demand imbalance in the job market, with measures to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [11]. - Strategies will be implemented to prevent the emergence of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [11].

12月13日，2025-2026中国经济年会召开，主题为"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展 为'十五五'开好局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展改革委副秘书 长肖渭明，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣发表演讲。 韩文秀：明年还将根据形势变化 出台实施增量政策 韩文秀表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进，提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节，切实提升宏 观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，先后出台实施了一系列政策措施，明年还将根据 形势变化出台实施增量政策。要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。市场经 济很大程度上是预期经济，要健全预期管理机制，做好经济宣传和舆论引导，及时回应市场关切，有效 提振社会信心。 具体而言，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出 总量。既着眼当前，用好用足政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。现在一些地方 财政困难，要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构，强 化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好 ...

会议强调，要着力强化预期管理在宏观经济治理中的重要作用，坚持有为政府和有效市场相结合， 注重系统设计和具体实施相贯通，健全政府与各类经营主体的常态化沟通机制，增强规划计划的可期性 和引导性，提升经济政策的协同效能和激励作用，实现稳预期与稳增长、稳就业的内在统一，推动经济 社会发展预期稳定向好。 会议强调，要以坚定决心和韧劲打好"保回迁"收官攻坚战，坚持党政同责、市区联动，督导压实投 资开发建设单位主体责任，充分发挥施工企业施工组织能力，加快工程款拨付，精准用好金融、资产等 支持政策，全域高效统筹配置资源，在维护群众利益大事上一抓到底、较真碰硬，分类施策解决堵点卡 点问题，加快回迁安置项目建设进度，确保群众早日回迁。 会议还研究了其他事项。 近日，市委常委会召开会议，学习习近平总书记在中央政治局第二十三次集体学习时的重要讲话和 致中国志愿服务联合会第三届会员代表大会的贺信精神，研究完善网络生态治理长效机制，细化"志愿 之城"建设措施；传达学习中央重要文件精神，研究加强预期管理工作；听取全市"保回迁"进展情况， 部署收官攻坚重点工作。 市委副书记、市长叶牛平主持会议。 会议强调，要认真贯彻习近平总书记关于加强网络 ...

亚洲股市之外，全球市场正上演"美元走弱、万物皆涨"的罕见行情。黄金与美股期货双双突破昨日高 点，美国国债价格同步走高，而美元指数则持续下挫——这一系列联动发生在美联储核心通胀指标公布 前夜，构成极具戏剧性的市场预演。 本文源自：热点快报 按常规逻辑，重要数据发布前市场应呈现"轻仓观望、关键位蓄势"的谨慎姿态。但当前行情却呈现"美 元下跌+股指期货上行+黄金突破+美债收益率下行"的全面一致特征，这种在关键数据窗口期提前形成 的单边趋势，早已超越"中性预期"的合理范畴。 作者：AI君 这种异常行情背后往往隐藏着两种可能：其一，关键经济数据可能已被市场通过非官方渠道提前获悉； 其二，华尔街主力机构已形成"无论数据好坏，均按此方向解读"的共识性策略。若属后一种情形则更需 警惕——当市场在数据发布前便以突破性走势形成一致性预期，往往意味着交易逻辑已从"数据本身"转 向"数据后的叙事逻辑"。 此刻的市场已非单纯的数据反应场，而成为叙事博弈的战场。那些在关键点位形成的突破性走势，既可 能是对潜在利好的提前定价，也可能是叙事主导下的预期管理。今晚的焦点，已悄然从"通胀数据的具 体数值"转向"市场如何解读这个数值"——这场关于 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in November shows a slight recovery to 49.2%, indicating improvements in both domestic and overseas demand, although it remains in a contraction zone for the eighth consecutive month [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The November PMI reflects improvements in 11 sub-indices, including new orders and production expectations, with a composite PMI output index at 49.7%, suggesting overall economic stability [2][5]. - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, while the production index rose to the critical point of 50.0%, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction [5][6]. Policy Impact - Recent government policies, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds, are expected to stimulate domestic market demand and infrastructure investment [5][8]. - The positive outcomes from recent US-China trade talks have also contributed to a marginal increase in export orders, with the new export orders index rising by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the largest increase in six months [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors continue to show strong demand, with their PMIs remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, while traditional energy-intensive industries are still in contraction [6]. - Specific industries such as agricultural processing and non-ferrous metal smelting are experiencing active demand, whereas sectors like petroleum and chemical manufacturing are lagging [6][7]. Price Trends - The main raw material price index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating ongoing expansion since the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [7]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to see a slight month-on-month increase, although year-on-year comparisons may still reflect a decline due to higher base effects from the previous year [7][8]. Future Outlook - The construction PMI is anticipated to rise into the expansion zone as the effects of the new policy financial tools and special bonds materialize [8]. - The overall industrial product prices remain subdued, influenced by weak consumer demand and declining real estate investments, with the long-term effects of "anti-involution" policies on prices still under observation [8].