Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar driven by rising oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5]. - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the increase in the opening rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal, while the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative. Overall, the price of protein meal fluctuates greatly and lacks certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [12]. - For oils, the current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran event. Before the event ends, with high oil prices and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, the supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. For the futures, hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. - For pigs, the supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. For the futures, consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop from 43.5 million tons to 40.3 million tons due to high energy prices [4]. - From January to February 2026, China's sugar imports increased by 440,000 tons compared with the same period last year [4]. - In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production was 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait - and - see due to the unstable international oil prices [5]. Cotton - **Market Information**: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [7]. - From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased by 110,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and cotton yarn imports increased by 80,000 tons [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports [7]. - From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; exports to China were 3,300 tons, and the cumulative exports to China were 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons [7]. - As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill opening rate was 78.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 percentage points [7]. - The USDA predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the February prediction and 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term positive for US cotton prices, and consider going long on dips in the medium term [9]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [11]. - From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; exports to China were 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the February prediction and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term positive for US soybean prices, but the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards is negative. Short - term wait - and - see [12]. Oils - **Market Information**: - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and large refineries are required to bear 70% of the exemption quota [14]. - The President of Indonesia said that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives producers in Indonesia cannot export related products before meeting domestic demand [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year [14]. - In the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oils inventory was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium term due to the US - Iran event and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were partially stable, with some low - price areas rising and high - price areas falling. The supply of large - sized eggs in the production area is abundant, while the supply of small - sized eggs is still tight. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the procurement volume may increase slightly, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: - Over the weekend, the decline of domestic pig prices slowed down, with some rising, some falling and some stable. At the end of the month, the reduction of supply by some farmers and the support of second - fattening purchases made pig prices run strongly. Some farmers are waiting and seeing, while some are clearing inventory [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. Consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded to media reports regarding Trump's comments on the Strait of Hormuz, clarifying that the reports are completely erroneous and that the visit is unrelated to the issue of navigation in the Strait [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].