Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended include: Huanlan Environment, Green Power, Green Power Environmental Protection, Conch Venture, Yongxing Shares, Everbright Environment, Junxin Shares, Yuehai Investment, Meike Technology, Jiufeng Energy, Yutong Heavy Industry, Jingjin Equipment, New Energy, Kunlun Energy, Sanfeng Environment, Xingrong Environment, Hongcheng Environment, China Water Affairs, Weiming Environmental Protection, Longjing Environmental Protection, High Energy Environment, Blue Sky Gas, New Energy Shares, Science and Technology, Jinke Environment, Yingke Recycling, and Lude Environment [1] Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will release a carbon emission trading market quota plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries. The distribution plan continues the framework of the power generation industry, with a full-cycle free allocation from 2024 to 2025, reserving space for a combination of free and paid allocation by 2027. The plan covers quota management for the three industries from 2024 to 2025, adding approximately 1,500 key emission units and shortening the implementation period by two years [1] Company Tracking - High Energy Environment is experiencing price elasticity due to rising metal prices, with stable operations in the resource recycling sector and active overseas expansion. Longjing Environmental Protection is seeing performance contributions from green electricity in mining, accelerating investment in incremental projects, and revitalizing its old and new business [1] Solid Waste Sector Insights - In July-August 2025, national subsidies for recycling accelerated significantly, with Everbright receiving 2.064 billion yuan in subsidies, exceeding the 1.534 billion yuan received in the same period of 2024. The solid waste sector is seeing improvements in return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, with a 1% year-on-year revenue increase and an 8% rise in net profit for the first half of 2025. The sector's operating cash flow net amount reached 6.9 billion yuan, a 9% increase [2] Water Sector Insights - The water sector is expected to see a cash flow turning point, with a projected significant increase in free cash flow starting in 2026. The dividend payout ratio for core companies is expected to rise, with a 34% payout ratio anticipated for 2024. Price reforms in water pricing are expected to enhance growth and valuation [3] Sanitation Sector Insights - The penetration rate of electric sanitation is accelerating, with a significant increase in sales of new energy equipment. In the first half of 2025, the sales of sanitation vehicles reached 49,577 units, a 3.20% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 8,284 units, a 69.34% increase [6][5]

Investment Highlights - The report highlights significant acceleration in national subsidies recovery for the environmental sector in July-August 2025, with Everbright receiving 2.064 billion yuan, surpassing the 1.534 billion yuan received in the same period of 2024 [1][4] - The solid waste sector has shown improvements in return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, with a 1% increase in revenue and an 8% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [5][6] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hanlan Environment, Green Power, and Everbright Environment, among others [2] Solid Waste Sector Insights - The solid waste sector's performance in the first half of 2025 includes a 9% increase in operating cash flow, reaching 6.9 billion yuan, and a 24% increase in free cash flow compared to the first half of 2024 [5][6] - The average waste incineration companies saw a 1.8% increase in tonnage output and a 1.2% increase in grid-connected output in the first half of 2025 [5][6] - Companies are expanding their operations and improving efficiency, with notable increases in heating supply rates for several firms [5][6] Water Sector Analysis - The water sector is expected to experience a cash flow turnaround, with a projected increase in free cash flow for companies like Xingrong and Shouchuang starting in 2026 [6] - Price reforms in water services are anticipated to enhance growth and valuation, with recent price adjustments in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [6] Sanitation Sector Developments - The penetration rate of electric sanitation vehicles is accelerating, with a 77.6% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first seven months of 2025 [7][8] - The report notes a significant rise in the number of automated sanitation projects, indicating a growing trend towards automation in the sector [7][8] Industry Tracking - The report tracks the performance of various sectors, including the increase in sales of sanitation vehicles and the profitability of biodiesel production, with a notable rise in the price of used cooking oil [8] - Lithium battery recycling is also highlighted, with improvements in profitability due to changes in pricing for lithium and cobalt [8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the environmental industry, highlighting robust operational growth and improved cash flow, particularly in waste incineration and water services [2][6]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is experiencing steady growth in operations and cash flow improvements, with significant opportunities arising from the automation and electrification of sanitation services [5][29]. - Waste incineration companies have shown enhanced return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, leading to consistent dividend payouts [3][6]. - Water services are witnessing stable performance with declining capital expenditures and accelerated water price increases [4][6]. - The sanitation sector is rapidly adopting electric vehicles, with a notable increase in sales of new energy sanitation equipment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Waste Incineration - The average waste incineration companies reported a 1.8% increase in waste processed per ton and a 1.2% increase in electricity sold per ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. - Significant growth in heating services was observed, with top companies like Haichuang and Green Power showing increases of 170% and 115% respectively [6]. - The sector is focusing on operational efficiency and expanding B-end and C-end services to enhance profitability and cash flow [6]. Water Services - The water services sector reported a 2% decline in revenue but a 6% increase in net profit in the first half of 2025, with notable performance from Zhongshan Public Utilities due to high investment returns [14][15]. - Major cities have implemented water price increases, which are expected to drive a new round of water price reforms [6][15]. - Key recommendations include companies like Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment, which are expected to benefit from price adjustments and stable growth [6][15]. Sanitation - The penetration rate of electric sanitation vehicles is accelerating, with a 77.6% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The rise of automation in sanitation is evident, with over 290 new projects in the autonomous driving sector, of which more than 90 are focused on automated cleaning [6]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Yutong Heavy Industry and others that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 22.46 [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the trends of electrification and intelligence in sanitation services, with a robust pipeline of contracts contributing to stable revenue [5][6]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.423 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.55%, primarily due to a reduction in intelligent equipment revenue [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 was RMB 93.74 million, a slight decrease of 0.93% year-on-year, mainly due to increased provisions for bad debts [5]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 5.040 billion in 2024, RMB 5.557 billion in 2025 (up 10.27%), RMB 6.131 billion in 2026 (up 10.32%), and RMB 6.767 billion in 2027 (up 10.39%) [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 145.44 million in 2024, RMB 179.99 million in 2025 (up 23.75%), RMB 212.94 million in 2026 (up 18.30%), and RMB 243.04 million in 2027 (up 14.14%) [4]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.43, with a projected PB of 2.7 times for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 22.46 [9]. Business Segments - In the sanitation services segment, the company has annual contracts worth RMB 4.152 billion, which are expected to contribute stable income [6]. - The company achieved a market share of 3.53% in the sanitation equipment market and 8.27% in the new energy sanitation equipment market, ranking fifth and third in the industry, respectively [7]. - The company has successfully deployed cleaning robots in approximately 40 cities, showcasing its commitment to the electrification and intelligence transformation of sanitation equipment [8].

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