在支出刚性和收入减少大背景下，美国财政部的国债发行规模正不断创出新高。近期，美国财政部发行在外的国债余额首次突破30万亿美 元大关，这一规模几乎是2018年的两倍。 而截至11月，美国联邦政府债务总额已高达38.4万亿美元，这已无限接近41.1万亿的法定债务上限，随着"大而美"法案影响效应在2026财 年的逐渐兑现，美国政府的债务危机或进一步加剧。 这引发了市场对美国财政悬崖的担忧，毕竟2024年美国按现价计算的GDP，只有29.18万亿美元。按此折算，那么美国联邦政府债务总额 占GDP的比重为126.79%，这远超了国际通行的警戒线。 受持续增加的天量债务影响，美联储不得为财政赤字融资这一约定俗成的惯例已被打破。现有资料显示，为了解决大幅增加的政府开支， 美国财政部发行国债、美联储从二级市场购买国债的赤字货币化操作日渐公开化，这放大了市场对美债和美国财政危机的焦虑情绪。受此 影响，今年以来，全球三大主要信用评级机构相继下调了美国的主权信用AAA级(表示极低的违约风险)评级。 虽然从理论上来看，以赤字货币化为核心理念的现代货币理论(MMT)重新解读了货币与财政、债务之间的内在逻辑，认为应当通过功能性 财政解决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lead to her becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, with a shift towards a more moderate and conservative policy stance, alleviating investor concerns about extreme fiscal expansion and pressure on the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae's campaign reflected a pragmatic shift from her previous hardline positions, avoiding past statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes, which helped her gain more support within the LDP [2][3]. - The concept of "Responsible Expansionary Fiscal Policy" proposed by Kishi emphasizes strategic fiscal mobilization to address social issues, aiming for job and income growth, and a gradual reduction of government net debt-to-GDP ratio, contrasting with modern monetary theory (MMT) [2][3]. Economic Policy Influences - Kishi's economic policies are influenced by former advisor Honda Yoshihiro, incorporating traditional measures such as refundable tax credits and the elimination of temporary gasoline taxes [3]. - She has indicated that cutting consumption tax is not a priority and the likelihood of increasing financial income tax in the short term is low, despite previous proposals to raise the tax rate on financial income over 500,000 yen [3]. Monetary Policy Alignment - Kishi respects the independence of the Bank of Japan, aligning her economic judgments with the cautious stance of Bank Governor Ueda Kazuo, which may lead to a cooling of market expectations for imminent interest rate hikes [5]. - If economic recovery is clear and wage growth stabilizes inflation at 2%, Kishi's government would not oppose interest rate increases, indicating a flexible approach to monetary policy [5]. Key Policy Focus Areas - Kishi's administration will prioritize national security, domestic investment, and structural reforms, with a strong emphasis on "economic security" [6]. - Plans include increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2027, promoting investment in critical sectors like AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology through tax incentives, and establishing a Foreign Investment Review Committee [6]. - Additional reforms aim to address rising prices, enhance energy security, and ensure food safety through agricultural structural reforms [6].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) positions her as a potential first female Prime Minister of Japan, with a shift towards a more moderate and conservative policy stance, alleviating investor concerns about extreme fiscal expansion and pressure on the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Policy Stance - Kishi has moved from a hardline stance to a more pragmatic approach to gain support within the LDP, avoiding previous statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes [2][3]. - Her campaign emphasized "responsible expansionary fiscal policy," focusing on strategic fiscal mobilization to address social issues, which contrasts with the extreme fiscal expansion associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) [2][3]. Economic Policy Influences - Kishi's economic policies are influenced by former advisor Honda Yoshihiro, incorporating traditional measures such as refundable tax credits and the elimination of temporary gasoline taxes [3]. - Concerns regarding consumption tax cuts and increased financial income tax are deemed exaggerated, suggesting that fiscal sustainability risks may not be as significant as perceived [3]. Monetary Policy Alignment - Kishi respects the independence of the Bank of Japan, indicating that the government sets fiscal and monetary policy goals while the Bank decides on the best monetary policy tools [4]. - Her economic views align with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, both expressing caution regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs and recognizing that current inflation is primarily driven by supply-side factors [4][6]. Tax Policy Outlook - Kishi has indicated that cutting consumption tax is not a priority, and the likelihood of increasing financial income tax in the short term is low [5]. - Any potential increase in financial income tax would depend on achieving a 2% inflation target, rather than being implemented immediately [5]. Key Policy Focus Areas - Kishi's administration will prioritize national security, domestic investment, and structural reforms, with a strong emphasis on "economic security" [7][8]. - Plans include increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2027, promoting investment in critical sectors like AI and semiconductors, and establishing a Foreign Investment Review Committee [8].

Core Viewpoint - The persistent structural imbalance in the U.S. fiscal trajectory has become a central concern for the Federal Reserve, as highlighted by Chairman Jerome Powell since 2018, indicating deep-rooted contradictions in the U.S. economic governance system [1] Group 1: Long-term Fiscal Trajectory Risks - Powell first articulated concerns about the erosion of the tax base due to aging population and rising healthcare costs at the 2018 Jackson Hole conference, noting that federal debt as a percentage of GDP has surpassed 78% [3] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that if current policies continue, the baseline deficit rate will remain high at 5.8% over the next decade, with public debt projected to exceed 134% of GDP by 2035, nearly doubling from 2019 levels [3] - Powell emphasized the "non-cyclical" nature of fiscal imbalance, stating that even in a fully employed economy, mandatory spending as a percentage of GDP is increasing by 0.7 percentage points annually [3] Group 2: Credit Rating Downgrade and Market Anxiety - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 on May 17, marking the first such action since the 2011 S&P event, warning that if tax cuts from the Trump era are made permanent, the fiscal gap could expand by an additional $4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The report highlighted that while the U.S. economy is resilient, fiscal flexibility is declining at a rate of 1.2% per year, undermining its institutional advantages [4] - The White House's optimistic growth forecast faces challenges, including low productivity growth, limited labor force participation improvement, and geopolitical impacts on capital spending [4] Group 3: Policy Stalemate and Financial Risks - There is a fundamental divide between the two parties regarding fiscal reform, with Democrats advocating for corporate tax reform and taxes on the wealthy to raise $3.6 trillion, while Republicans support making the 2017 tax cuts permanent [5] - Powell reiterated a neutral stance on specific policy combinations but stressed that current debt dynamics are unsustainable [5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates that a 50 basis point increase in credit risk premium on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields could reduce GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points over the next five years [5] Group 4: Governance Challenges and Reform Outlook - Powell's warnings highlight the limitations of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) practices, as the Treasury's bond issuance is significantly outpacing the Fed's balance sheet reduction through quantitative tightening [6] - This policy mismatch has led to a rapid decline in reserve balances, prompting the New York Fed to increase its repurchase operations by $150 billion in May [7]