按照惯例，美国白宫总会在年中会发布一个经济预测，对上半年的经济进行总结，对下半年的情况进行展望。而2020年这个发布会却被推迟。 原因很简单，这一年上半年美国的经济状况实在是拿不出手，赶在选举临近的节骨眼上，一旦公布出来，估计是茅坑里扔石头，分量十足，毕竟亮丽的风景 线在全美正此起彼伏呢。 当年美国一季度GDP数据发布，萎缩5%。其实这个数字并没有表面上看起来的那么糟糕，因为5%的数据是环比折年率，这个数据放大了可能的经济下滑， 如果按同比计算，美国的经济增长实际上还是正向的。唉，神奇的统计口径，神奇的数字游戏。 但是二季度的经济数据可能就要比较吓人了。按照美联储公布的周度高频经济数据显示，4月份美国经济最糟糕的时候下滑了10.9%。光说数字你们可能没 什么反应，没关系，对比一下2008年金融危机，当时美国经济最严重时，下滑了4%，已经让全世界在哭爹喊娘了。 QE3:发生在2012年9月15日到2014年10月之间，主题还是MBS等债务抵押证券，每月收购400亿，同时对外发行等量国债来套取现金。细节不提了，归纳起 来一句话，解决到期债务的置换展期问题，俗称印钱发债还欠账。 QE4:与QE3几乎是同步进行，从2 ...

在选民政治的特殊国情制约下，削减公民福利和加税几乎是美国任何一个政党都不敢触碰的红线。而历 届政府"只扫本届门前雪"的减税策略，使得美国逐渐从以往的"财政自律模式"彻底滑向"债务依赖型模 式"。在减税政策惯性和社会保障、医疗保险和国债利息等刚性支出挤压下，债务规模失控、短债供给 激增与市场承接能力边际减弱的三重压力使得美国政府"破罐破摔"迹象明显。 尤其是"大而美"法案通过后，美国政府债务占GDP比重将进一步提升至125%，国债上限从36万亿美元 推高至41万亿美元(该法案的刺激效应将在2026财年兑现)，这意味着美国政府的债务上限已经"名存实 亡"。美联储从二级市场购买国债为核心的赤字货币化操作，也正在日益从幕后走向台前，全球安全资 产不得不进入了一个重新寻锚的动荡期，长端美债价格波动幅度加大已不可避免。 抛开这些长期因素不谈，此次美债收益率飙升背后，同样也有短期供给增加等结构性因素。进入7月以 来，美债发行速度和规模都有所增加。尤其是贝森特履新财政部长以来，美国国债发行呈现出长端占比 增加的结构性特征。根据美国财政部借款咨询委员会(TBAC)的最新估算，四季度美债的净发行量约为 5900亿美元，其中长债4 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry and its dynamics in 2025, highlighting geopolitical tensions and economic policies impacting supply chains and market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Non-Ferrous Metals Market - Geopolitical conflicts may intensify resource nationalism, disrupting the supply chain of non-ferrous metals [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metals market in 2025 is divided into two halves: the first half driven by tariff adjustments and supply disruptions, while the second half is expected to see a decline in real interest rates, further boosting metal prices [1][3]. - The current state of the non-ferrous metals market is described as lackluster, with demand not yet compelling enough to force new easing policies [4]. Gold Market - The gold market is anticipated to experience minor pullbacks followed by significant upward trends, attributed to insufficient global wealth allocation towards gold [5]. - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhaojin Mining, Zhongrun Resources, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the rising gold prices [5]. Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices have surged due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, which accounts for 70-80% of global supply [6]. - If the ban persists, downstream inventory may clear, enhancing valuations for companies like Huayou Cobalt and others [6]. Fiscal Policy Impact - The 2025 fiscal policy is characterized by rapid government bond issuance, with the balance growth rate increasing from approximately 15% at the end of 2024 to 21% by May 2025 [8]. - Fiscal spending has accelerated, directly impacting infrastructure and consumer spending, with appliance consumption growth reaching over 50% due to trade-in subsidies [8]. Challenges Ahead - The second half of 2025 may face challenges due to limited subsidy amounts and potential export pressures, which could constrain economic growth [9][10]. - The monetary policy is expected to loosen further, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially dropping to 1.3%-1.4% [11]. Shipping and Transportation - The shipping sector is affected by geopolitical tensions, with the Red Sea reopening delayed, improving supply-demand dynamics [3][20]. - Oil shipping rates have surged due to increased costs from geopolitical conflicts, significantly enhancing profitability for shipping companies [20]. Cement and Construction Materials - The cement industry is experiencing a decline in prices due to reduced demand and cost control measures, with prices dropping from 400 RMB per ton to 360 RMB [13]. - The construction materials sector is currently weak, with potential risks of demand decline and increased competition [15]. Coal and Steel Industries - The coal industry is facing a downturn due to weak demand and high supply, with prices for thermal coal down 20% year-on-year [17]. - The steel industry is maintaining decent profit levels despite weak prices, with expectations for improved margins due to lower raw material costs [19]. Aviation Industry - The aviation sector anticipates high passenger load factors during the summer season, with demand growth outpacing supply growth [23][24]. - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions are expected to impact airline costs, but overall profitability is projected to improve [25]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector faces dual pressures from rising costs and weakening demand, with uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs on exports to China [28]. - Companies in the coal chemical sector, such as Hualu and Baofeng, are highlighted as having cost advantages due to rising oil prices [29]. Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemicals sector is experiencing supply issues, particularly with glyphosate prices rising significantly [30]. Tire Industry - The tire industry benefits from declining natural and synthetic rubber prices, leading to improved profitability for companies like Zhongce Rubber and Sailun [31]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic landscape is complex, with various sectors facing unique challenges and opportunities driven by geopolitical events, fiscal policies, and market dynamics [2][7][10].