近期玻璃现货价格走势低迷，多数区域产销持续在80%~100%之间运行，价格方面，周末期间沙河和湖 北部分企业降价20-40元/吨。从基本面来看,市场传闻湖北地区两条玻璃生产线即将冷修，涉及日融量共 2000吨/天，是否落实仍需进一步确认，盘中受消息影响快速拉涨。另一方面，沙河仍有四条燃煤线年 底前存在改造或停产可能，涉及日融量合计3000吨/天。目前沙河已经具备点火条件的生产线共有2条， 涉及日融量合计2250吨/天左右。中期玻璃供应端存在缩量可能。从需求端来看，当前终端需求尚未出 现有效回暖，赶工期需求较往年同期偏弱，中下游备货意向偏低，当前玻璃产销持续低位运行，低需求 或拖累价格持续上冲。（作者单位：齐盛期货） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, the supply is greater than demand, which suppresses the price. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply has potential reduction factors, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell glass futures on rallies in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position is 1387072 lots, up 8 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 260443, down 10249; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8745 tons, down 1189 tons; the basis is - 72 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 92, down 1 [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1113 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the position is 1695797 lots, down 111349 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 246153, up 68818; the exchange warehouse receipt is 423 tons, down 24 tons; the basis is - 69, down 18; the spread between January and May contracts is - 150, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1174 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Central China heavy soda is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The operating rate is 84.94%, up 0.01%; the enterprise inventory is 169.24 tons, down 0.97 tons [2]. - Glass: The operating rate is 76.35%, unchanged; the production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of production lines is 226, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 6661.3 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 233.7 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 453990000 square meters, up 55979900 square meters; the cumulative completion area is 311290000 square meters, up 34354600 square meters [2]. Industry News - Some soda ash plants are reducing production or running at a lower load, such as Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year plant, Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 tons/year plant, etc. Some are running stably, like Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 million tons/year plant [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the glass market, highlighting inventory pressures and price fluctuations, with a neutral to pessimistic outlook for future pricing trends [4][5][6]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Hubei manufacturers are experiencing stable inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate around 1100 yuan under the 2601 contract [4]. - In contrast, Shahe manufacturers face significant inventory pressure, with production profits higher than last year's deep losses, indicating a potential price drop to the 1010-1030 yuan range if market sentiment turns extremely pessimistic [5]. - The glass market has seen a substantial accumulation of inventory post the October holiday, with mainstream regions at historically high inventory levels, suggesting a short-term negative feedback loop in sales [6]. Group 2: Current Negative Factors - The midstream sector still holds high inventory levels, leading to passive accumulation by manufacturers [7]. - Both Shahe and Hubei manufacturers have inventory levels above the same period last year, with a strong willingness to sell at lower prices following futures price declines [8]. - Shahe's inventory is currently higher than in September 2024, with profits around 90 yuan, indicating a larger price drop potential compared to Hubei, which has seen prices rise from 950 yuan last September to approximately 1040 yuan now [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a slight oversupply, but not to a significant extent, with expectations of maintaining seasonal production in Q4 [6]. - The glass market is anticipated to remain in a low-price fluctuation range of 1000-1200 yuan, with long-term supply-demand expectations continuing to weaken [9]. - Without a rebound in prices from November to December, the market is likely to maintain low-level fluctuations, requiring a reduction in supply for any long-term price increases [9].

Industry Overview - As of August 14, the national float glass industry operating rate is 75.34%, remaining stable over the past two weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 79.78% [1] - Daily production remains at 159,600 tons, which is the highest level this year [1] - The price of float glass raw sheets is experiencing a steady decline, with some manufacturers in East China reducing prices by 2 yuan per weight box, and most manufacturers in Hubei lowering prices by 1-2 yuan per weight box [1] - Inventory levels increased to 63.426 million weight boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.55% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.94%, indicating a slowdown in inventory reduction and weak downstream demand [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Donghai Futures, the daily melting volume of glass has decreased week-on-week, while production lines remain unchanged, indicating stable supply conditions [2] - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, leading to limited demand growth, although downstream processing orders have increased slightly in mid-August [2] - Profit margins are declining due to falling glass prices, with profits from natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuel for float glass also decreasing week-on-week [2] - Overall, the glass supply remains stable, but demand is not expected to see significant increases, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Market Sentiment - Southwest Futures notes that shipments from companies are slowing down, with prices stabilizing [3] - Continuous monitoring of glass spot trade and regional inventory reduction is necessary [3] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the clearance of capacity from old production lines over ten years old [3] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain high, but there may be funding disturbances before the month-end, necessitating careful position management [3]