今日浮法玻璃现货价格1107元/吨，环比上一交易日上涨4元/吨。需求方面，春节临近，市场逐步转 淡，下游采购意向减弱，深加工企业延续刚需采购，多无存货意向。预计节后整体需求启动或将缓慢， 对市场支撑力度有限。供应方面，1月份有3条浮法产线放水，供应有所下降。节后仍有部分产线存在放 水预期，若按计划执行，浮法日熔量或将延续下降趋势。目前生产企业库存累积，部分地区中游库存高 位。总之，供需两弱背景下，预计短期玻璃期价低位区间震荡，关注成本和产线变动情况。(首创期货) ...

Group 1 - The recent glass spot price trend is sluggish, with most regions operating at a production and sales rate between 80% and 100%, and some companies in Shihe and Hubei have reduced prices by 20-40 yuan per ton [1] - There are rumors that two glass production lines in Hubei are about to undergo cold repairs, involving a daily production capacity of 2000 tons, although confirmation is still needed [1] - In Shihe, there are four coal-fired lines that may be modified or shut down by the end of the year, with a total daily production capacity of 3000 tons potentially affected [1] Group 2 - Currently, there are two production lines in Shihe that are ready to be ignited, with a combined daily production capacity of approximately 2250 tons [1] - The mid-term outlook for glass supply may see a reduction in volume [1] - On the demand side, there has not been an effective recovery in terminal demand, with construction demand being weaker compared to the same period last year, and lower inventory intentions from mid and downstream sectors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, the supply is greater than demand, which suppresses the price. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply has potential reduction factors, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell glass futures on rallies in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position is 1387072 lots, up 8 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 260443, down 10249; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8745 tons, down 1189 tons; the basis is - 72 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 92, down 1 [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1113 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the position is 1695797 lots, down 111349 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 246153, up 68818; the exchange warehouse receipt is 423 tons, down 24 tons; the basis is - 69, down 18; the spread between January and May contracts is - 150, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1174 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Central China heavy soda is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The operating rate is 84.94%, up 0.01%; the enterprise inventory is 169.24 tons, down 0.97 tons [2]. - Glass: The operating rate is 76.35%, unchanged; the production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of production lines is 226, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 6661.3 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 233.7 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 453990000 square meters, up 55979900 square meters; the cumulative completion area is 311290000 square meters, up 34354600 square meters [2]. Industry News - Some soda ash plants are reducing production or running at a lower load, such as Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year plant, Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 tons/year plant, etc. Some are running stably, like Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 million tons/year plant [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the glass market, highlighting inventory pressures and price fluctuations, with a neutral to pessimistic outlook for future pricing trends [4][5][6]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Hubei manufacturers are experiencing stable inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate around 1100 yuan under the 2601 contract [4]. - In contrast, Shahe manufacturers face significant inventory pressure, with production profits higher than last year's deep losses, indicating a potential price drop to the 1010-1030 yuan range if market sentiment turns extremely pessimistic [5]. - The glass market has seen a substantial accumulation of inventory post the October holiday, with mainstream regions at historically high inventory levels, suggesting a short-term negative feedback loop in sales [6]. Group 2: Current Negative Factors - The midstream sector still holds high inventory levels, leading to passive accumulation by manufacturers [7]. - Both Shahe and Hubei manufacturers have inventory levels above the same period last year, with a strong willingness to sell at lower prices following futures price declines [8]. - Shahe's inventory is currently higher than in September 2024, with profits around 90 yuan, indicating a larger price drop potential compared to Hubei, which has seen prices rise from 950 yuan last September to approximately 1040 yuan now [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a slight oversupply, but not to a significant extent, with expectations of maintaining seasonal production in Q4 [6]. - The glass market is anticipated to remain in a low-price fluctuation range of 1000-1200 yuan, with long-term supply-demand expectations continuing to weaken [9]. - Without a rebound in prices from November to December, the market is likely to maintain low-level fluctuations, requiring a reduction in supply for any long-term price increases [9].

Industry Overview - As of August 14, the national float glass industry operating rate is 75.34%, remaining stable over the past two weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 79.78% [1] - Daily production remains at 159,600 tons, which is the highest level this year [1] - The price of float glass raw sheets is experiencing a steady decline, with some manufacturers in East China reducing prices by 2 yuan per weight box, and most manufacturers in Hubei lowering prices by 1-2 yuan per weight box [1] - Inventory levels increased to 63.426 million weight boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.55% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.94%, indicating a slowdown in inventory reduction and weak downstream demand [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Donghai Futures, the daily melting volume of glass has decreased week-on-week, while production lines remain unchanged, indicating stable supply conditions [2] - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, leading to limited demand growth, although downstream processing orders have increased slightly in mid-August [2] - Profit margins are declining due to falling glass prices, with profits from natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuel for float glass also decreasing week-on-week [2] - Overall, the glass supply remains stable, but demand is not expected to see significant increases, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Market Sentiment - Southwest Futures notes that shipments from companies are slowing down, with prices stabilizing [3] - Continuous monitoring of glass spot trade and regional inventory reduction is necessary [3] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the clearance of capacity from old production lines over ten years old [3] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain high, but there may be funding disturbances before the month-end, necessitating careful position management [3]