Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, the supply is greater than demand, which suppresses the price. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply has potential reduction factors, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell glass futures on rallies in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position is 1387072 lots, up 8 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 260443, down 10249; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8745 tons, down 1189 tons; the basis is - 72 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 92, down 1 [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1113 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the position is 1695797 lots, down 111349 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 246153, up 68818; the exchange warehouse receipt is 423 tons, down 24 tons; the basis is - 69, down 18; the spread between January and May contracts is - 150, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1174 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Central China heavy soda is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The operating rate is 84.94%, up 0.01%; the enterprise inventory is 169.24 tons, down 0.97 tons [2]. - Glass: The operating rate is 76.35%, unchanged; the production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of production lines is 226, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 6661.3 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 233.7 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 453990000 square meters, up 55979900 square meters; the cumulative completion area is 311290000 square meters, up 34354600 square meters [2]. Industry News - Some soda ash plants are reducing production or running at a lower load, such as Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year plant, Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 tons/year plant, etc. Some are running stably, like Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 million tons/year plant [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.9.22-9.26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货先扬后抑，主力合约SA2601收盘较前一周下跌1.90%报1293元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周下跌2.04%。 供给方面，近期纯碱检修企业少，个别企业短停，对于整体影响较小，预计下周供应依 旧处于较高水平，下周产量预计77万吨，开工率89%；需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一 般，按需为主，节前补库为主，低价成交居多，货源相对宽松，下游存货意向不足，按需补 充；周内，浮法日熔量16.07万吨，环比增加500吨，光伏8.88万吨，环比稳定。截止9月25 日，全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合 来看，纯碱基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of the sentiment of policy incentives, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, so supply remains high. The daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakening terminal demand. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,235 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,332 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% compared with the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash and the fading of policy - induced positive sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: As the peak maintenance season in summer approaches, production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - grade soda ash has cut production, leading to weakening demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.84% to 1,332 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.59% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 4.90% to - 97 yuan [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - grade soda ash in the Shahe market, Hebei is 1,235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy - grade soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - grade soda ash, which is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual planned launch of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - For float glass, the national daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - For photovoltaic glass, prices have been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume of in - production glass has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward at a low level. The supply of soda ash increased slightly while the demand was weak. Considering the high inventory, it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 last week was 1,156 yuan/ton, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease [2]. - The industry's production capacity is operating normally with a slight increase in supply. The expected output next week is 760,000 tons, and the operating rate will rise to around 87% [2]. - The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,100 tons to 155,700 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 480 tons to 98,300 tons. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the overall consumption volume fluctuates little [2]. - As of June 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,686,300 tons, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, and the daily melting volume is decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Weekly Quotes | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,212 | 1,252 | 40 | | Current Value | 1,156 | 1,200 | 44 | | Change Rate | - 4.62% | - 4.15% | 10.00% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease from the previous week [13]. - The profit of the combined soda - making method for heavy soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [16]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, including 405,800 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output falling from a historical high [20]. - The weekly heavy - soda production rate of soda ash is 54.83% [22]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [29]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1,686,300 tons, including 875,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the supply - demand gap, growth rate, etc. [36]