Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with tight local supplies and a rising price center. The supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance or production reduction, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1215 line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market trended volatile and slightly stronger, with tight local supplies and a rising price center. Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 698,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15%. The comprehensive production capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons or 3.47%. The pending orders of soda ash were close to 11+ days, a decrease of about 1+ days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises are poor, and the domestic soda ash production start-up is expected to rise at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the output of photovoltaic glass remaining stable for the time being. In the context of loose supply and demand of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the changes in soda ash production start-up. The price of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1215 line [2]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash production start-up, progress of new capacity investment, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was dull and stable, with prices adjusting narrowly. The futures price trended volatile and stable, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and volatile characteristic [8]. Supply Situation Analysis - As of November 27, the domestic soda ash output was 698,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 315,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9,600 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 383,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,100 tons. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the combined soda process (double tons) was -140 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 13.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia-soda process was -38.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of November 27, the domestic in-production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, a week-on-week decrease of 0.78% and a year-on-year increase of 1.29%; the capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%. In December, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, with terminal construction gradually stopping and component purchases decreasing, resulting in a corresponding decrease in photovoltaic glass consumption, while the decline in the supply side is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December. - **Float Glass**: As of November 27, the average start-up rate of the float glass industry was 74.52%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 78.84%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.45 percentage points. This week, there are plans to shut down some float glass production lines, and the output may decrease [13]. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of November 27, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons or 3.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 40,500 tons [15]. Position Analysis - As of November 28, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 967,337, a decrease of 526, and the short positions were 1,232,557, an increase of 11,587. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the soda ash futures prices have significantly declined, approaching yearly lows due to weakening demand and increasing supply pressures [1][5][8] Group 2 - The cold repair of glass production lines in Hebei has led to a reduction in daily melting capacity by 2400 tons, with further cold repairs expected to exceed 4000 tons per day by the end of the year [2][4] - The glass inventory continues to accumulate, causing prices to drop and production profits to deteriorate, leading to more production lines entering loss-making states [2][3] Group 3 - New soda ash production capacities are set to come online, including a 280,000-ton natural soda project by Yuanxing Energy expected to start by the end of December, which will further increase supply pressure [5][6] - The overall soda ash production capacity utilization rate was 83.30% in November, with a production volume of 3.1123 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease [5][6] Group 4 - The theoretical profit for soda ash production using the soda-lime method was reported at -140 RMB/ton, indicating a worsening profitability scenario [6] - The coal prices have shown signs of stagnation, leading to weakened cost support for soda ash production [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash shows mixed performance, with the main contract closing at 1173.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.26% [1] Supply Side - According to Zhengxin Futures, the recovery of previously reduced production facilities has led to an increase in operating rates, maintaining overall production at relatively high levels [1] - Soda ash manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling existing orders, with inventory levels still considered high despite a short-term decrease [1] Demand Side - Everbright Futures indicates that demand remains stable, with downstream sectors continuing to replenish stocks at lower prices, and both pending orders and shipments from soda ash manufacturers are in good condition [1] - As of the latest data, soda ash inventories decreased by 1.75% compared to the previous week, which supports manufacturers' pricing strategies [1] - However, there has been an increase in the release of water from downstream float glass production lines, posing challenges to the essential demand for soda ash [1] Inventory Status - As of November 24, 2025, total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China stands at 1.6157 million tons, a decrease of 28,700 tons or 1.75% from the previous week [1] - The inventory breakdown includes 740,800 tons of light soda ash (down 16,300 tons) and 874,900 tons of heavy soda ash (down 12,400 tons) [1] Market Outlook - Ningzheng Futures suggests that current profits for soda ash manufacturers are not favorable, with expectations of stable operating rates in the coming week [1] - Downstream demand for soda ash is anticipated to remain steady, particularly with stable production levels in the float glass sector [1] - Given the loose supply-demand dynamics, it is expected that soda ash inventories will continue to remain high, with a focus on monitoring changes in production rates [1] - Soda ash prices are projected to trend weakly in the near term, with resistance expected around the 1190 CNY level for the January contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic soda ash market is trending steadily with narrow price adjustments. With increasing supply, stable downstream demand, and a balanced production - sales situation, the inventory is expected to remain high. The soda ash price is forecasted to be weakly volatile in the near term, with the 01 contract facing resistance at the 1250 line. Key factors to watch include soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and inventory changes [2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 75.76 million tons, a 2.29% increase from the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 170.20 million tons, a 0.01% decrease. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to 11.6 days [2]. - Currently, soda ash enterprises have poor profits. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to remain high and stable this week. The downstream demand is expected to be stable, and the output of float glass is expected to run smoothly. With a loose supply - demand situation, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the 01 contract facing resistance at 1250 [2]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Spot and Futures Market**: The East China soda ash market was stable with narrow price adjustments and little change in basis [6]. - **Supply**: As of November 13, the domestic soda ash output was 73.93 million tons, a 1.01% decrease. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was - 182 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method was - 23.50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Demand** - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of November 13, the in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 89380 tons/day, a 1.42% increase from the previous week but a 1.76% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 68.35%, up 0.96%. There is an expectation of cold - repair of production lines this week, with an estimated reduction of 1200 tons/day. In November, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is expected to decline, and the market difference is expected to widen [12]. - **Float Glass**: As of November 13, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75%, down 0.92 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.56%, down 0.86 percentage points. There are no plans for ignition or water - release of production lines this week, and the output may remain stable [12]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 13, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 170.73 million tons, a 0.40% decrease. The inventory of light soda ash was 80.02 million tons, down 1.44 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 90.71 million tons, up 0.75 million tons [14]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 14, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 920790, a decrease of 40204, and the short positions were 1168939, an increase of 3342. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, the supply is greater than demand, which suppresses the price. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply has potential reduction factors, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell glass futures on rallies in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position is 1387072 lots, up 8 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 260443, down 10249; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8745 tons, down 1189 tons; the basis is - 72 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 92, down 1 [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1113 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the position is 1695797 lots, down 111349 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 246153, up 68818; the exchange warehouse receipt is 423 tons, down 24 tons; the basis is - 69, down 18; the spread between January and May contracts is - 150, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1174 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Central China heavy soda is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The operating rate is 84.94%, up 0.01%; the enterprise inventory is 169.24 tons, down 0.97 tons [2]. - Glass: The operating rate is 76.35%, unchanged; the production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of production lines is 226, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 6661.3 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 233.7 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 453990000 square meters, up 55979900 square meters; the cumulative completion area is 311290000 square meters, up 34354600 square meters [2]. Industry News - Some soda ash plants are reducing production or running at a lower load, such as Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year plant, Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 tons/year plant, etc. Some are running stably, like Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 million tons/year plant [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 decreased by 1.90% compared to the previous week, reaching 1293 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% drop from the previous week. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain at a high level next week, with an estimated output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, mainly on - demand, with pre - holiday inventory replenishment and more low - price transactions. The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons as of September 25, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, but still at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1318 yuan/ton to 1293 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.90%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1225 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decrease. The main basis remained unchanged at - 93 yuan/ton [8]. II. Soda Ash Spot Market 1. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [18]. 2. Soda Ash Operating Rate, Capacity, and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.12%. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][24][26]. 3. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [27]. III. Fundamental Analysis - Demand 1. Soda Ash Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash was 113.40% [30]. 2. Soda Ash Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% was stable [33]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [40]. V. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of the sentiment of policy incentives, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, so supply remains high. The daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakening terminal demand. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,235 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,332 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% compared with the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash and the fading of policy - induced positive sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: As the peak maintenance season in summer approaches, production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - grade soda ash has cut production, leading to weakening demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.84% to 1,332 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.59% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 4.90% to - 97 yuan [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - grade soda ash in the Shahe market, Hebei is 1,235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy - grade soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - grade soda ash, which is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual planned launch of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - For float glass, the national daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - For photovoltaic glass, prices have been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume of in - production glass has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward at a low level. The supply of soda ash increased slightly while the demand was weak. Considering the high inventory, it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 last week was 1,156 yuan/ton, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease [2]. - The industry's production capacity is operating normally with a slight increase in supply. The expected output next week is 760,000 tons, and the operating rate will rise to around 87% [2]. - The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,100 tons to 155,700 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 480 tons to 98,300 tons. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the overall consumption volume fluctuates little [2]. - As of June 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,686,300 tons, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, and the daily melting volume is decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Weekly Quotes | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,212 | 1,252 | 40 | | Current Value | 1,156 | 1,200 | 44 | | Change Rate | - 4.62% | - 4.15% | 10.00% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease from the previous week [13]. - The profit of the combined soda - making method for heavy soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [16]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, including 405,800 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output falling from a historical high [20]. - The weekly heavy - soda production rate of soda ash is 54.83% [22]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [29]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1,686,300 tons, including 875,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the supply - demand gap, growth rate, etc. [36]