首席经济学家：郑后成 执业证书编号：S0990521090001 电话：0755-83008511 邮箱：houchengzheng@163.com 相关报告 1.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国将继续 在国际经贸斗争中"占优"，"绿色"主 题排序"跨越式"上升（20251212） 2.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年 A 股大盘 或面临支撑，年内高点大概率位于下半年 （20251205） 3.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国 CPI 同比大概率高于 2025 年（20251124） 4.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国外汇储 备大概率在3.3万亿美元基础上稳步上行 （20251110） 5.英大证券宏观评论：高水平科技引领发 展新质生产力，明后两年我国 GDP 增速 预期目标或均为"5.0%左右"（20251030） 6.英大证券宏观评论："适时加力"落在 4 季度概率大于 3 季度，中期我国资本市 场还将保持"回稳向好"势头（20250807） 7.英大证券宏观评论："猪油"共振向下 是 5 月 CPI 当月同比承压主因，6 月我国 PPI 当 月 同 比 大 概 率 还 将 低 位 徘 徊 （202 ...

Group 1 - The discussion at The Year Ahead 2026 summit featured insights from prominent figures in investment and economics, including concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and potential market bubbles [2][3][4] - There is skepticism regarding the long-term viability of AI investments, with comparisons drawn to past infrastructure investments in China that did not yield sustainable returns [3][16][17] - The panelists expressed a consensus that gold is not a guaranteed investment, with historical precedents indicating potential long-term bear markets for gold due to central bank selling [11][38][39] Group 2 - The panel highlighted the importance of diversifying investments beyond AI, suggesting that commodities and mining stocks may offer better returns than AI-related stocks [7][21][22] - There is a growing belief that the Chinese yuan may gradually replace gold and the US dollar in international reserves, indicating a shift in global economic dynamics [11][39][42] - The discussion emphasized the need for a balanced investment strategy, with recommendations for low-risk assets that provide stability during economic uncertainty [56][57] Group 3 - The panelists noted that the current economic environment is characterized by a mismatch in production relationships, which could continue to exert pressure on the economy [13][15] - The importance of recognizing the cyclical nature of markets was underscored, with suggestions to focus on companies that can thrive even in downturns [26][55] - The potential for significant changes in the market landscape was acknowledged, with a call for investors to remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving conditions [30][31][50]