首席经济学家：郑后成 执业证书编号：S0990521090001 电话：0755-83008511 邮箱：houchengzheng@163.com 相关报告 1.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国将继续 在国际经贸斗争中"占优"，"绿色"主 题排序"跨越式"上升（20251212） 2.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年 A 股大盘 或面临支撑，年内高点大概率位于下半年 （20251205） 3.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国 CPI 同比大概率高于 2025 年（20251124） 4.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国外汇储 备大概率在3.3万亿美元基础上稳步上行 （20251110） 5.英大证券宏观评论：高水平科技引领发 展新质生产力，明后两年我国 GDP 增速 预期目标或均为"5.0%左右"（20251030） 6.英大证券宏观评论："适时加力"落在 4 季度概率大于 3 季度，中期我国资本市 场还将保持"回稳向好"势头（20250807） 7.英大证券宏观评论："猪油"共振向下 是 5 月 CPI 当月同比承压主因，6 月我国 PPI 当 月 同 比 大 概 率 还 将 低 位 徘 徊 （202 ...

黄奇帆表示，过去十几年，我国进入到了"以国内大循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促 进"的新发展格局。在新格局下，中国制造出现了三个新的发展特征。 在科研开发方面实现自立、自研、自强。在0~1的自主创新、原始创新方面，1~100的科研成 果产业化转化方面和100~100万的产业链集群创新方面均取得了重大成就。 在产业链集群方面，由过去改革开放初期以"两头在外、大进大出、加工贸易为主"的状态， 转变为产业链集群"一头在外、一头在内，上中下游零部件原材料中间品"的产业链集群，80% 的附加值在国内形成，以一般贸易的状态出口导向，与以前50%以上都是加工贸易形成的产业 链的生产体系有根本性的不同。 在国内大循环为主的格局下，中国进出口、引进外资，形成了更高水平、更深层次、更宽领 域的开放，过去10来年，平均每年引进外资总量达到1200亿美元。 记者丨陈梦璇 编辑丨蒋韵 11月18日，中国金融四十人论坛学术顾问、重庆市原市长黄奇帆在第二十届中国经济论坛上 发表主旨演讲时表示，"十五五"期间抓好新质生产力发展， 要围绕存量的绿色低碳和数字化 改造、增量的十五大战略性新兴产业和未来产业的集群化发展，以及生产性服务业三个方面 ...

Group 1 - The suspension of tariffs provides a significant boost to Chinese enterprises, alleviating export pressures and supporting stable growth in foreign trade [3] - The pause in tariffs allows China to adjust its economic structure and promotes high-quality development, creating a time window for these changes amid weak global economic recovery [3] - The easing of tariffs ensures the normal operation of foreign trade enterprises, which in turn supports the development of related industries and stabilizes employment [3] Group 2 - Future development remains fraught with challenges, as the U.S. has historically politicized trade issues to curb China's growth and maintain its global dominance [4] - The U.S. may implement non-tariff measures to further restrict China, including technological blockades and investment barriers [4] Group 3 - Companies must accelerate transformation and upgrading, enhance independent innovation capabilities, and improve product value and competitiveness to address long-term challenges [5] - Strengthening brand development and diversifying market expansion are essential strategies for companies to manage risks and avoid trade-related issues [5] - The joint statement from the U.S. and China is seen as a positive signal for stabilizing bilateral economic relations, with hopes for continued cooperation and mutual benefits [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a new development pattern that focuses on domestic circulation while promoting mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulation, as proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2020 [1]. Group 1 - The new development pattern has been a strategic deployment that strengthens the resilience of the Chinese economy over the past five years [1]. - The article suggests that China is actively responding to the challenges of the current and future economic landscape by leveraging its own advantages while remaining open to the world [1].

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. government's trade war and tariff policies are seen as detrimental to global economic development and are unlikely to achieve the intended effects, with China demonstrating greater economic resilience to external shocks [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs is viewed as a manifestation of its hegemonic ambitions, aiming to restructure economic relations globally [1] - Experts argue that unpredictable tariff policies hinder not only global trade but also the U.S. economy itself, with potential negative impacts expected to manifest by the end of 2025 if the current situation persists [2] - The high tariffs are perceived as negotiation tools rather than sustainable measures, with expectations of partial reductions and exemptions in the future [2] Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - China's economy is characterized by strong resilience, capable of effectively responding to the challenges posed by the U.S. trade war [3] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its trade partners and enhance economic interactions with countries outside the U.S., potentially strengthening its position in the Russian market [3] - Despite short-term losses due to the trade war, China's economic influence is expected to grow, positioning it as a significant player in a multipolar world [3]