首席经济学家：郑后成 执业证书编号：S0990521090001 电话：0755-83008511 邮箱：houchengzheng@163.com 相关报告 1.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国将继续 在国际经贸斗争中"占优"，"绿色"主 题排序"跨越式"上升（20251212） 2.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年 A 股大盘 或面临支撑，年内高点大概率位于下半年 （20251205） 3.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国 CPI 同比大概率高于 2025 年（20251124） 4.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国外汇储 备大概率在3.3万亿美元基础上稳步上行 （20251110） 5.英大证券宏观评论：高水平科技引领发 展新质生产力，明后两年我国 GDP 增速 预期目标或均为"5.0%左右"（20251030） 6.英大证券宏观评论："适时加力"落在 4 季度概率大于 3 季度，中期我国资本市 场还将保持"回稳向好"势头（20250807） 7.英大证券宏观评论："猪油"共振向下 是 5 月 CPI 当月同比承压主因，6 月我国 PPI 当 月 同 比 大 概 率 还 将 低 位 徘 徊 （202 ...

戴绪龙：总的来看，中国面临的国际形势依然严峻复杂。 中央经济工作会议近日在京举行，围绕中国经济展开了"今年怎么看、明年怎么办"的讨论，并最终定 调。值得关注的是，此次会议多次提及外部环境，并提出必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战，坚持对外开 放，推动多领域合作共赢。 当前外部环境如何？有哪些"老问题"和"新挑战"？未来将如何应对外部环境的变化？带着这些问题，南 都N视频记者采访了商务部中国国际经济合作学会副会长、致公党中央委员戴绪龙。 戴绪龙近年来一直关注国际经济合作、资源与环境经济、可持续发展等领域，在服贸会、进博会多次担 任国际经济论坛总负责人。他说："这次中央经济工作会议有很多新提法值得关注，比如建设三大国际 科创中心，从原来的北京、上海、粤港澳大湾区扩容至京津冀、长三角和粤港澳大湾区，另外还部署了 多项支持科技创新的举措，可以看出我国未来科技强国的信心和决心。" 国际形势严峻复杂，中美经贸摩擦长期存在 南都：中央经济工作会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深。从 外部环境来看，您认为当前我国面临哪些"老问题"和"新挑战"？ 同时，深化结构改革，推进重点领域改革，激发市场活力。会 ...

黄奇帆表示，过去十几年，我国进入到了"以国内大循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促 进"的新发展格局。在新格局下，中国制造出现了三个新的发展特征。 在科研开发方面实现自立、自研、自强。在0~1的自主创新、原始创新方面，1~100的科研成 果产业化转化方面和100~100万的产业链集群创新方面均取得了重大成就。 在产业链集群方面，由过去改革开放初期以"两头在外、大进大出、加工贸易为主"的状态， 转变为产业链集群"一头在外、一头在内，上中下游零部件原材料中间品"的产业链集群，80% 的附加值在国内形成，以一般贸易的状态出口导向，与以前50%以上都是加工贸易形成的产业 链的生产体系有根本性的不同。 在国内大循环为主的格局下，中国进出口、引进外资，形成了更高水平、更深层次、更宽领 域的开放，过去10来年，平均每年引进外资总量达到1200亿美元。 记者丨陈梦璇 编辑丨蒋韵 11月18日，中国金融四十人论坛学术顾问、重庆市原市长黄奇帆在第二十届中国经济论坛上 发表主旨演讲时表示，"十五五"期间抓好新质生产力发展， 要围绕存量的绿色低碳和数字化 改造、增量的十五大战略性新兴产业和未来产业的集群化发展，以及生产性服务业三个方面 ...

Group 1 - The suspension of tariffs provides a significant boost to Chinese enterprises, alleviating export pressures and supporting stable growth in foreign trade [3] - The pause in tariffs allows China to adjust its economic structure and promotes high-quality development, creating a time window for these changes amid weak global economic recovery [3] - The easing of tariffs ensures the normal operation of foreign trade enterprises, which in turn supports the development of related industries and stabilizes employment [3] Group 2 - Future development remains fraught with challenges, as the U.S. has historically politicized trade issues to curb China's growth and maintain its global dominance [4] - The U.S. may implement non-tariff measures to further restrict China, including technological blockades and investment barriers [4] Group 3 - Companies must accelerate transformation and upgrading, enhance independent innovation capabilities, and improve product value and competitiveness to address long-term challenges [5] - Strengthening brand development and diversifying market expansion are essential strategies for companies to manage risks and avoid trade-related issues [5] - The joint statement from the U.S. and China is seen as a positive signal for stabilizing bilateral economic relations, with hopes for continued cooperation and mutual benefits [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a new development pattern that focuses on domestic circulation while promoting mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulation, as proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2020 [1]. Group 1 - The new development pattern has been a strategic deployment that strengthens the resilience of the Chinese economy over the past five years [1]. - The article suggests that China is actively responding to the challenges of the current and future economic landscape by leveraging its own advantages while remaining open to the world [1].

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's speech at the second China-Central Asia Summit and the spirit of the 11th Provincial Committee's ninth plenary session, focusing on development opportunities and cooperation with Central Asia [2][3] Group 1: Development Strategy - The city aims to leverage its resources to seize development opportunities, focusing on major projects to enhance cooperation in modern agriculture, automotive equipment, logistics, cultural tourism, and education technology with Central Asia [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to align thoughts and actions with the provincial decision-making, concentrating on the "two highs and four efforts" to advance modernization in the Central Plains [2] Group 2: Key Initiatives - The meeting discussed the rectification of feedback from the provincial inspection, emphasizing continuous improvement, evaluation, and transforming results into governance and development effectiveness [3] - The construction of the Zhengzhou metropolitan area was a focal point, with a call for high standards in planning and coordination to invigorate reform and development [3] - Preparations for the 2025 China (Zhengzhou) Yellow River Cultural Month were also addressed, aiming to promote Yellow River culture and enhance the city's cultural identity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. government's trade war and tariff policies are seen as detrimental to global economic development and are unlikely to achieve the intended effects, with China demonstrating greater economic resilience to external shocks [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs is viewed as a manifestation of its hegemonic ambitions, aiming to restructure economic relations globally [1] - Experts argue that unpredictable tariff policies hinder not only global trade but also the U.S. economy itself, with potential negative impacts expected to manifest by the end of 2025 if the current situation persists [2] - The high tariffs are perceived as negotiation tools rather than sustainable measures, with expectations of partial reductions and exemptions in the future [2] Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - China's economy is characterized by strong resilience, capable of effectively responding to the challenges posed by the U.S. trade war [3] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its trade partners and enhance economic interactions with countries outside the U.S., potentially strengthening its position in the Russian market [3] - Despite short-term losses due to the trade war, China's economic influence is expected to grow, positioning it as a significant player in a multipolar world [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Welfare China 2035" framework proposed by Guotai Junan Asset Management, which aims to address structural issues in China's economy as it transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on consumption-driven growth and improving social welfare [1][2][3]. Economic Transition - The transition in China's economy is marked by a shift from production-driven to consumption-driven growth, with final consumption expenditure consistently accounting for over 50% of GDP for the past 11 years [3]. - In 2023, final consumption accounted for 55.6% of GDP, significantly lower than developed countries like the US (81%) and Japan (75%) [3]. Income Distribution - In 2024, the proportion of per capita disposable income to GDP is projected to be 43.15%, which is still below the levels seen in developed countries [4]. - The income disparity between urban and rural residents is significant, with the urban-rural income ratio at 2.34 in 2024 [4]. Social Welfare - China's social welfare spending is low, with only 14.5% of the general public budget allocated to social security and employment, compared to 33% in Japan and 22% in the US [4][5]. - The social security system relies heavily on personal and family contributions, limiting consumption potential [5]. Structural Imbalances - The current economic model, heavily reliant on investment, is facing diminishing returns, with a capital formation rate of 41% in 2023, far exceeding the global average of 25% [6][7]. - The need for a transition to a consumption-driven economy is emphasized to address issues like manufacturing overcapacity and external trade imbalances [6][7]. "Welfare China 2035" Framework - The framework aims to innovate the distribution of national wealth, improve the social security system, and optimize the supply-demand cycle to release consumption potential [8]. - Key goals include increasing disposable income, expanding the middle-income group, and achieving social security coverage for all [9][10]. Income Distribution Reform - The reform aims to increase labor compensation in the income distribution system and explore new factors like technology and data in income distribution [11][12]. - Direct tax systems will be established to reduce the tax burden on labor compared to capital income, enhancing compensation for low- and middle-income groups [12]. Enhancing Property Income - The strategy includes measures to stabilize the stock market and increase residents' property income by facilitating long-term capital market investments [14]. - Policies will be implemented to allow rural housing transactions and mortgages, potentially generating significant property income for rural residents [16]. Welfare Initiatives - Initiatives will be introduced to enhance the sense of well-being among citizens, including childcare subsidies and improved healthcare and pension support [17]. - The goal is to reduce precautionary savings and stimulate consumption by ensuring reliable social security [17]. Conclusion - The "Welfare China 2035" strategy represents a significant shift in China's economic model, aiming to create a consumption-driven society that balances supply and demand, ultimately contributing to shared prosperity and high-quality development [18].