Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Daily Report on Risk Management of Pig Enterprises - Date: August 19, 2025 - Author: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply increase trend in the pig market is obvious, and both the industry and funds are aware of it. The futures market has priced in the expectation of oversupply. The fundamental situation remains one of oversupply, while policy expectations provide an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.94%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.75% [2]. 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, they can short - sell LH2511 pig futures at a recommended ratio of 20% to lock in finished - product profits, sell call options (either over - the - counter or exchange - traded) at a 20% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw material prices, they can buy pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either over - the - counter or exchange - traded) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Frequent policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The supply increase trend is well - recognized, and the futures market has reflected the oversupply expectation. The fundamental situation is oversupply, and policy expectations offer an opportunity for arbitrage [3]. 3.4利多解读 - No information provided in the report. 3.5利空解读 - Positive factors: Improved macro - sentiment boosts market confidence, the standard - fat price spread is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of production capacity reduction from the policy side [5]. - Negative factors: The inventory of breeding sows remains high, the inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high, the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remains high with losses in slaughtering profit, and downstream terminal consumption is weak [5]. 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average pig spot price is 13.62 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0.01 yuan and a growth rate of 0.07%. Prices vary by region, such as 13.63 yuan/kg in Henan (up 0.04 yuan, 0.29%), 13.65 yuan/kg in Hunan (down 0.02 yuan, - 0.15%), etc. [8]. 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of different pig futures contracts are as follows: Pig 01 is 14,200 yuan/ton, Pig 03 is 13,330 yuan/ton, Pig 05 is 13,810 yuan/ton, Pig 07 is 14,260 yuan/ton, Pig 09 is 13,780 yuan/ton, and Pig 11 is 13,900 yuan/ton, all with no daily change [9]. 3.8 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - For example, the spread of LH01 - 03 is 870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 2.25%); the basis of Henan - 01 contract is - 570 yuan/ton, with no change [17][19].

南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/08/14 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13400强支撑 | 10.94% | 0.75% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2511 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购管理 未来有采购计划，担心原料有上涨风险 | 为防止未来生猪价格上涨，依据采购计划买入生猪远期合约，锁定采购成本 | 生猪远月合约 | 买入 | 依据采 ...

南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/08/12 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13400强支撑 | 10.94% | 0.75% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2511 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购管理 未来有采购计划，担心原料有上涨风险 | 为防止未来生猪价格上涨，依据采购计划买入生猪远期合约，锁定采购成本 | 生猪远月合约 | 买入 | 依据采 ...