Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price based on the last closing price of 7.41 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown growth in its pig farming business while reducing costs, and its feed sales continue to grow [1][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.2% to 411 million [3][4]. - The company expects further cost optimization in production efficiency and other expenses [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.764 billion, a decline of 6.49% year-on-year, with a net profit of 73.46 million, down 74.58% [3]. - The total number of pigs sold in the first three quarters was 2.2823 million, an increase of 6.46% year-on-year [3]. - The comprehensive cost of pig farming in Q3 was 12.78 yuan/kg, down from 13 yuan/kg in the first half of the year [3]. Feed Business Performance - The feed business achieved sales of 2.12 million tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.62%, with Q3 sales reaching 776,000 tons, up 11.8% [4]. - Pig feed sales increased by 18% to 462,300 tons, while poultry feed sales grew by 8% to 165,500 tons [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Due to the anticipated decline in pig prices, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered, with expected net profits of 585 million and 979 million respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.43 yuan for 2025 and 0.72 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17.23x and 10.29x [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 34.46%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.53 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 1169.77% [1] - The company plans to reduce its total cost of sales for commodity pigs to 11 yuan/kg by the end of 2025, demonstrating effective cost management [2] - A high dividend payout ratio of 47.5% of net profit for the first half of 2025 indicates strong cash flow and management confidence in future performance [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 24.174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.2% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 4.43 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.4x [4] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 145.676 billion yuan in 2025 to 155.810 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.6% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, but a substantial improvement in its core business profitability is noted, indicating a shift from reliance on non-recurring gains to sustainable earnings from its main operations [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million to 370 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 56.01% to 58.39% [1]. - The expected net profit after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 238 million and 258 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 281 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and a net profit of 102 million yuan after excluding non-recurring items, compared to a loss of 455 million yuan in the previous year [1]. Operational Strategies - The company has implemented cost-reduction strategies, including smart upgrades to breeding facilities, disease prevention optimization, and innovative farming models, which have strengthened its core business profitability [2]. - The focus on cost control has allowed the company to achieve a turnaround in its core business, contrasting with the previous year's reliance on non-recurring gains for profitability [1][4]. Regulatory and Financial Challenges - The company faced regulatory scrutiny for failing to return 1.16 billion yuan of idle raised funds on time, leading to administrative measures from the regulatory authorities [3]. - Cash flow and debt pressure remain significant issues, with a negative operating cash flow of 964 million yuan in 2024, although there was an improvement in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company secured 740 million yuan in investments from industry investors to alleviate debt and improve liquidity, but the long-term financial health remains uncertain [3]. Industry Context - The cyclical volatility of pig prices continues to pose a risk to the profitability of breeding companies, including the company, which has achieved temporary profitability through cost reduction [4]. - The ability to maintain stable profitability amidst industry cycles remains a critical challenge for the company [4].

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant growth in sales volume, with many companies reporting double-digit year-on-year increases in sales of pig-related products, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2]. Sales Performance - In May, several companies reported substantial increases in sales volume, with some exceeding 150% year-on-year growth. For instance, Muyuan Foods sold 6.406 million pigs, up 30.42% year-on-year; Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.1554 million pigs, an increase of 32.64%; Zhengbang Technology sold 638,600 pigs, up 158.02%; and Tangrenshen sold 482,800 pigs, up 47.69% [1][2]. - Other companies like Kemin Foods and Dabeinong also reported double-digit growth in sales, with Kemin's subsidiary selling 48,300 pigs, up 23.06%, and Dabeinong selling 386,300 pigs, up 17.99% [2]. Production and Cost Management - Muyuan Foods attributed its sales increase to improved production efficiency and operational planning, while Wens Foodstuff cited increased piglet production and demand for piglets as contributing factors. Zhengbang Technology noted a gradual recovery in its business as a reason for its sales growth [2]. - Despite positive year-on-year comparisons, some companies saw a decline in sales compared to April, indicating a mixed performance in the short term [2]. Slaughter Volume and Market Outlook - The average daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises increased to 149,100 pigs in late May, reflecting a recovery in terminal consumption driven by pre-festival stocking demands. However, slaughter volumes are expected to decline post-festival [3]. - The industry anticipates a decrease in pig prices due to rising temperatures affecting weight gain and initiating inventory reduction actions. Nevertheless, the slow growth in the number of breeding sows may provide a buffer against supply pressures in the medium term [3]. Cost Control - Muyuan Foods reported a decrease in pig farming costs to approximately 12.2 yuan/kg in May, down nearly 0.2 yuan from the previous month, attributed to improved production performance. The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg through technological innovation and refined management [3][4]. - Wens Foodstuff reported a comprehensive cost of 6 yuan/lb for pig farming in April, while New Hope indicated a current cost of 12.9 yuan/kg, with expectations for further reductions by year-end [4].