期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]112 2026-03-22 活体库存去化过程开启 姓名：朱殿霄 从业资格号：F3079229 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018269 一 数据概览及行情观点 数据概览及行情策略 | 维度 | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上期 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 解析与预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 标猪全国均价 | 元/公斤 | 9.87 | 10.03 | -0.16 | -1.60% | 本周现货价格继续下滑，钢联数据显示3月20日当周全国毛猪均价9.87元/公斤，环比下跌0.16 元/公斤。全国毛猪均价全线跌破10元/公斤，白条价格跟随下跌。 | | | 标猪河南均价 | 元/公斤 | 9.94 | 9.99 | -0.05 | -0.50% | | | | 标猪陕西均价（最优交割地） | 元/公斤 | 10.83 | 11.6 | -0.77 | -6.64% | | | | 白条价格 | 元/公斤 | 13.15 | 15.3 | -2.15 | -14.05% | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for live pig sales is progressing slowly, with a divergence in performance among leading enterprises. Supply is expected to remain loose in the coming six months [4] - The cash flow pressure in the industry is significant, with expectations of deep losses in the second quarter as both live pigs and piglets may face substantial deficits [4][56] - The industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with cash flow continuously depleting and pessimistic expectations accelerating capacity reduction [82] Summary by Sections 1. Sales Volume - The industry sales progress in February was below expectations, with a completion rate of only 95%. March is expected to see a 25% increase in planned sales compared to February [8] - The actual sales volume for February was 21.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19% but a month-on-month decrease of 22% [16] - The estimated theoretical total output of commodity pigs for the first half of 2026 is expected to increase by 7.84% year-on-year [8] 2. Pig Prices and Profits - February pig prices showed a decline of 24% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, with average profits turning negative at -99 yuan per head [56] - The price of piglets saw a seasonal increase in February, but the sentiment for replenishment is expected to weaken [59] - The price difference between fattened pigs and market pigs expanded seasonally but remains lower year-on-year [63] 3. Production Capacity - The breeding stock showed a slight increase in February, but the industry is expected to face ongoing cash flow issues leading to accelerated capacity reduction [76] - As of December 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 2.87%, indicating a persistent overcapacity issue [79] - The industry is advised to optimize capacity by eliminating low-yield sows and enhancing the breeding of high-efficiency pigs [79] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that it is an opportune time to invest in leading breeding enterprises during this low cycle phase [82] - Recommended companies include DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs, among others [84]

一、商品猪销售情况 公司 2026 年 2 月份销售商品猪 48.11 万头（其中仔猪销售 18.42 万头），销售收 入 47,970.06 万元，销售均价 12.77 元/公斤（商品肥猪均价为 11.57 元/公斤），环比变 动分别为-29.46%、-28.87%、-6.06%。 证券代码：002124 证券简称：天邦食品 公告编号：2026-006 天邦食品股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月份商品猪销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没 有虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 1、商品猪市场价格的大幅波动（下降或上升），都可能会对公司的经营业绩产生 重大影响。 2、生猪市场价格变动的风险是整个生猪生产行业的系统风险，对任何一家生猪生 产者来讲都是客观存在的、不可控制的外部风险。 敬请广大投资者审慎决策，注意投资风险。 2026 年 1-2 月销售商品猪 116.31 万头（其中仔猪销售 47.44 万头），销售收入 115,408.32 万元，销售均价 13.24 元/公斤（商品肥猪均价为 12.10 元/公斤），同比变动 分别为 23.11%、-12.67%、-18. ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianbang Foods has confirmed that the acquisition of Xingnongfa has been conducted in compliance with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no benefit transfer occurs [2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company stated that the acquisition process has strictly followed internal decision-making procedures and information disclosure obligations [2] - Some pig farms acquired are not yet operational due to construction and environmental reasons, while others are operating normally according to the company's production plan [2]

证券日报网讯2月25日，天邦食品（002124）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年2月13日， 公司最新的股东户数是83463户。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese feed acidifier industry is experiencing growth as the country reduces antibiotic use in livestock farming, with feed acidifiers emerging as a safe and effective alternative, supported by government regulations and market demand for cost-effective solutions [1][9]. Industry Overview - Feed acidifiers are environmentally friendly additives that lower the pH in animal digestive tracts, improving gut health and nutrient absorption, and are composed of organic and inorganic acids [3][8]. - The industry is transitioning towards "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with increasing demands for refined and specialized feed formulations [1][9]. Market Size and Growth - The market size of China's feed acidifier industry is projected to reach 4.612 billion yuan by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.65% [1][9]. - The production volume of feed acidifiers is expected to reach 399,100 tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, while demand is anticipated to reach 395,100 tons, increasing by 11.5% [8]. Competitive Landscape - The feed acidifier market is fragmented, with no dominant players, but competition is expected to intensify, leading to increased market concentration in the future [9][12]. - Key companies in the industry include Weifang Jiayijia Biotechnology Co., Ltd., Shanghai Meinong Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and others [10][11]. Industry Trends - The demand for feed acidifiers is on the rise, particularly in poultry and livestock sectors, as they enhance feed digestibility and animal performance [12]. - The industry is moving towards green and sustainable production practices, incorporating bio-based organic acids and optimizing manufacturing processes to reduce waste [13]. - Product innovation is focusing on composite and precise formulations to meet diverse needs across different animal species and growth stages, enhancing the effectiveness of feed acidifiers [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][45] Core Viewpoints - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies increased by 12.54% year-on-year but decreased by 11.15% month-on-month, totaling 18.02 million heads [6][9] - The average selling price of commercial pigs for 15 sample pig companies in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but an increase of 8.83% month-on-month [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in January was 121.41 kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17] - The industry is experiencing a return to losses in breeding profits before the festival, with the average weight of pigs still at historically high levels [19][20] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with sufficient safety margins, and the cost advantages of leading companies like Muyuan are expected to expand [34][35] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies was 18.02 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 12.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% [6][9][11] Selling Price - The average selling price of commercial pigs in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 19.30% year-on-year but up 8.83% month-on-month [13][14][16] Average Weight - The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 121.41 kg in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17][19] Industry Overview - The industry is facing a return to losses in breeding profits, with the average weight of pigs remaining high historically [19][20][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a forward-looking layout at the bottom, emphasizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale, with a focus on companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong [33][34][35]

Core Viewpoint - Tianbang Food (002124) expects a net profit loss of 1.11 billion to 1.31 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to a decline in the average selling price of commodity pigs, high interest and vacancy costs, and significant asset impairment provisions [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The average selling price of commodity pigs is expected to decline by 17.85% to 14.65 yuan/kg [2] - Interest and vacancy costs are estimated to total approximately 675 million yuan [2] - Asset impairment provisions are projected to be between 761 million and 938 million yuan [2] - The company's operating cash flow is anticipated to be between 850 million and 950 million yuan [2] Group 2: Recent Events - On February 6, 2026, Tianbang Food reported sales data for January 2026, with 682,000 commodity pigs sold and sales revenue of 674 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.01% and a year-on-year increase of 9.93% [3] - The average selling price for January was 13.60 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 14.54% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.83% [3] - The stock price of Tianbang Food experienced slight fluctuations, with a closing price of 2.50 yuan and a cumulative decline of 0.40% over the past seven trading days [3] Group 3: Institutional Insights - During a recent investor meeting, institutional investors discussed industry cycle strategies, cost optimization, and full industry chain collaboration with Tianbang Food's management [4] - The company emphasized its focus on intelligent farming and the prepared food business to address challenges, although specific financial targets were not disclosed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in a relaxed supply environment, with overall pig prices declining throughout 2025, despite a slight year-end recovery, remaining at relatively low levels. The competition is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency and collaboration within the industry chain [2][5][26]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The pig farming industry is expected to face supply pressure in the first half of 2026, with a projected output of 719.73 million pigs in 2025, a 2.4% increase, and a pork production of 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase [2][4]. - The breeding efficiency is improving, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 18.32 in 2021 to 24.03 in 2024, indicating a reduction in production costs [4][6]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with over 70% of pig farming being scaled, and the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% of output [4][5]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - Overall pork consumption is expected to show weak recovery in 2026, influenced by population and income levels, with a projected per capita pork consumption of 26.6 kg per year, a 5.4% decrease from the previous year [8][9]. - The demand for pork is being affected by the availability of alternative meats, which may divert consumption away from pork [8][9]. - The overall pig price trend in 2025 was downward, with slight year-end recovery, but still at low levels, influenced by seasonal demand and supply pressures [9][11]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The pig farming industry is positioned as a conversion link in the value chain, connecting upstream feed and breeding industries with downstream slaughtering and processing sectors [12]. - The bargaining power of upstream suppliers is weak, while the downstream bargaining power varies, with leading companies establishing long-term supply agreements to enhance pricing power [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards efficiency and collaboration, with leading companies focusing on integrated operations across the supply chain [14][16]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The industry is guided by policies aimed at stabilizing production and improving quality, with a focus on enhancing breeding efficiency and reducing costs through technological advancements [17][19]. - Leading companies are leveraging technology to restructure cost advantages, while smaller firms are encouraged to innovate in niche markets [20][21]. - The regulatory environment is evolving towards more systematic management, emphasizing compliance and quality control across the supply chain [19]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - In 2025, the agricultural sector issued 75 bonds totaling 51.134 billion yuan, with major issuers being leading companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope [21][22]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence in credit quality, with larger firms maintaining stable financing channels while smaller firms face tighter financing conditions [25][27]. - The overall credit risk in the pig farming industry is manageable, with stronger companies expected to solidify their credit standing amid ongoing market pressures [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pig farming sector, recommending continued investment in this area due to low historical valuations and potential recovery in prices [4][9]. Core Insights - The price of live pigs has dropped to 11.87 yuan per kilogram, indicating a potential restart of destocking in the pig farming industry [3][4]. - The report highlights that the average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2025, suggesting an oversupply situation [4]. - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines for pigs after the Spring Festival, with the industry likely to face increased losses and further capacity reduction [4]. - The report notes that the average utilization rate of breeding facilities is currently high, which may contribute to the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.87 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.8% [4]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is 4 kg heavier than the same period in previous years [4]. - The report indicates that the breeding sector has experienced three weeks of profitability but has recently returned to losses, with an average loss of 38 yuan per head [4]. - The report lists the monthly slaughter volumes of major listed pig companies, with a total of 13.08 million pigs slaughtered in January 2026, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [4]. Poultry Farming - The report states that the inventory of white feather broiler chickens remains high, while yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months [5][7]. - The average price of yellow feather broilers is reported at 14.95 yuan/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease [7]. Cattle Industry - The report notes that the total cattle inventory in China has decreased by 8.6% as of the end of 2025, with expectations for continued declines in 2026 [9]. - The report suggests that declining cattle inventory is a precursor to rising beef prices, with predictions for accelerated price increases in the first half of 2026 [9]. Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion yuan [8]. - The report highlights that the pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [8].