来源：市场资讯 生猪周期怎么看——华创资管多资产周报（商品篇） 上周（11月3日-7日）商品市场走势整体偏弱，南华工业品指数环比下跌0.72%。工业品品种方面，上周 涨幅排名前5的分别为纸浆、对二甲苯、尿素、铝、锌；跌幅前5的分别为沥青、铁矿石、甲醇、丁二烯 橡胶、丙烯。焦煤、碳酸锂、多晶硅等主要反内卷品种表现震荡。 纸浆方面，上周期货价格上涨3.10%，技术面上呈现一定多头走势，纸浆进口成本处于低位，企业利润 有所改善。国内主流港口纸浆库存窄幅去库，但整体仍处于相对高位，供给较为宽松。需求方面，下游 造纸开工率普遍上涨，白卡纸开始备货春节订单，库存有所累积，交投有所回暖。 沥青方面，上周期货价格下跌6.59%，日线跌幅逐渐扩大，基本面上受到国际油价回落和自身需求偏弱 的影响。随着气温降低，北方地区道路项目基本已经停工，南方地区部分项目或陆续进入赶工阶段，后 续项目需求承压。虽然供给端也有所收缩，装置开工率低位运行，但需求疲弱导致沥青期现价格均明显 下跌。 农产品方面，上周南华农产品指数再度反弹，环比上涨0.57%。分品种看，上周涨幅排名前5的农产品 期货分别为菜粕、豆粕、鸡蛋、玉米、玉米淀粉；跌幅前5的分别 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent developments in the livestock industry, particularly the pig farming sector, where a policy shift is expected to lead to a reduction in production capacity and a potential revaluation of low-cost advantage companies [1][2] - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Brother Technology (002562) leading the gains at 10.02%, while Haida Group (002311) experienced the largest decline [1] - The Livestock ETF (159867) has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 98.05 million yuan, totaling 218 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1] Group 2 - The recent pig production capacity adjustment meeting mandated that 25 leading pig companies must collectively reduce production by 1 million breeding sows by the end of the year, marking a shift from policy discussions to quantitative assessments [1] - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from a rotation in the pig cycle and a reduction in supply, which could positively influence pig prices and the overall performance of the sector [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.57% of the index, with leading companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuffs (300498) being significant players in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by favorable market conditions and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.881 billion yuan, up 519.42% year-on-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit was 18.747 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 565.61% [1]. - In Q4 alone, the company reported revenue of 41.172 billion yuan, a 47.61% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, up 405.67% [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company sold 71.6 million pigs and processed 12.52 million pigs, with total pork product sales reaching 1.42 million tons [2]. - The company has improved breeding efficiency and optimized feed formulas, which has led to reduced breeding costs [2]. - As of January 2025, the total breeding cost is approximately 13.1 yuan/kg, with a target to reach 12 yuan/kg [2]. Industry Position and Shareholder Returns - The company is a leading player in the pig farming industry, benefiting from strong management practices [2]. - The company has revised its shareholder return policy, committing to distribute at least 40% of the distributable profits as cash dividends annually [2]. - The long-term profitability of the industry is expected to remain stable, particularly for companies with management and cost advantages [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.69 billion yuan, 19.84 billion yuan, and 22.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 3.60 yuan, 3.63 yuan, and 4.11 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.75, 10.67, and 9.42 [3].