报告正文 1.生产高频跟踪：工业生产延续弱势，建筑业开工有所分化 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均不及去年同期。 上周（12月14日至12月20日），高炉开工率 环比-0.1%，同比回升0.8个百分点至-1.1%；钢材表观消费环比-0.5%、同比回升0.7个百分点至-4.1%。钢材 社会库存延续回落，环比-3.7%。 = 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 图 39: 上周，高炉开工率位于低位 全国高炉开工率 (247家) • 2022 ··· 2019 ■ ■ ■ · 2020 2021 2023 2025 -- 2024 % 85 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 图 40：上周，钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2019 ■ ■ ■ • 2020 2021 · 2022 2023 -- 2024 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, criticized the actions of key partners, the EU and India, indicating that contentious trade negotiations are likely to continue into next year [2][6]. Group 1: EU Trade Relations - Greer expressed strong concerns regarding the EU's regulatory measures against U.S. tech companies, suggesting these measures are discriminatory [2][6]. - He highlighted non-tariff barriers excluding U.S. agricultural products and various regulatory measures limiting industrial exports as significant challenges in EU negotiations [2][6]. - Greer's office threatened retaliation against the EU for taxing U.S. tech companies, naming potential targets such as Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify Technology SA [2][6]. Group 2: India Trade Relations - The trade negotiations with India, initiated earlier this year, have yet to yield an agreement, despite ongoing discussions [2][6]. - Recent communications between U.S. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi indicate efforts to bridge differences and reshape bilateral relations [3][7]. - This marks the fourth conversation between the leaders since Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, reflecting limited progress in achieving a trade agreement [3][7]. Group 3: Digital Regulation Concerns - The focus of contention lies in the EU's push for regulations on U.S. tech giants, including Google, Meta Platforms, and Amazon, with critics arguing that these regulations hinder technological innovation and have unfair funding intentions [3][7]. - Greer pointed out that despite the EU's claims of income thresholds in their new regulatory framework, it appears that only U.S. companies are affected [3][7]. - The EU defended its actions, asserting its commitment to "defend its tech sovereignty" [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting weak performance in various sectors while noting some marginal improvements in construction and consumer activity. Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% to 81.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - Steel apparent consumption has also decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 2.68% and a year-on-year drop of 2.4 percentage points to 1.2% [2] - Social inventory of steel continues to decline, down 2.9% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand show marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 38.9% [23] - Cement shipment rates decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 44.4%, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [23] - Cement inventory ratio continues to decline, down 1.9% week-on-week [23] Demand Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 24% week-on-week and 20.8 percentage points year-on-year [46] - The migration scale index remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points to 19.8% [58] - Movie attendance and box office revenue saw significant increases, with attendance up 322.0% year-on-year and revenue up 313.9% [64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally rising, with vegetable prices increasing by 2.1% week-on-week, while pork prices fell by 0.7% [88] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 1% week-on-week, with energy prices up 0.3% and metal prices up 1.7% [100]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity market experienced a widespread decline on November 21, primarily influenced by external market weaknesses, with significant drops in various sectors, particularly lithium carbonate and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1458.04 points, down 16.46 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2015.90 points, down 22.76 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - Most active commodities, except for some agricultural products, saw declines, with lithium carbonate hitting a daily limit down of 9% [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market faced a rapid cooling, with multiple contracts, including the main contract, closing at the daily limit down, leading the commodity market decline on November 21 [2]. - The market's downturn was exacerbated by the announcement from the Guangxi Futures Exchange to raise trading fees and margin requirements for certain lithium carbonate contracts, further dampening bullish sentiment [2]. - The main contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with over 68,000 contracts reduced and a net outflow of more than 2.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals also suffered from the overall market weakness, with the main silver contract dropping 3.7% and gold down 1.4% [3]. - The release of better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to the decline in precious metals [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe the long-term fundamentals supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting a potential rebound after adjustments [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Performance - In contrast to industrial commodities, certain agricultural products showed resilience, with starch and corn contracts rising over 1%, leading the commodity market [4]. - The strength in the corn market is attributed to reduced new grain supply from Northeast China and strong demand from feed enterprises, with average feed enterprise inventory increasing by 2.42% week-on-week [4][5]. - The oilseed sector exhibited mixed performance, with soybean oil and meal generally declining, while rapeseed meal saw a rebound after reaching a low point [5].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the challenges posed by Trump's tariff policies, China's export resilience has exceeded market expectations, with its global export share reaching a historical high of 14.2% in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with its share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to approximately 10% [3] - In response to tariff pressures, China has diversified its export markets, with exports to ASEAN and Africa growing by 14.3% and 26.1% respectively in the first ten months of the year [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - China's export product structure has improved, with high-tech industrial products accounting for 53.3% of exports in September, marking a historical high [5][7] - The export growth of high-tech products has contributed significantly to overall export growth, with a 9.0% increase in the first nine months of the year [5][7] - The competitiveness of Chinese products has been bolstered by a stable RCA index above 1 for various industrial products, indicating a strong comparative advantage [9][11] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, which are often processed in other countries before reaching final markets, raising concerns about the sustainability of this export model [13][15] - The decline in export prices due to domestic demand issues and increased competition has led to a trend of "trading at lower prices for volume," impacting overall export value [15] - The IMF has highlighted that the long-term support for China's export resilience from diversifying markets may be uncertain, as demand from major economies remains crucial [15][17]

Core Insights - The number of bankruptcies in the U.S. reached 655 by the end of October 2025, approaching the total of 687 for the entire year of 2024, marking a 15-year high [1] - The bankruptcy rate is accelerating, with 76 companies filing in August alone, the highest monthly figure since 2020, and 68 in October [1] Industry Impact - The industrial and consumer goods sectors are the hardest hit, with 98 and 80 bankruptcy filings respectively, indicating a severe crisis in these industries [3] - Industrial companies face challenges from global supply chain disruptions, rising raw material and logistics costs, and the impact of tariff policies [3] - Consumer goods companies are struggling with weak demand and high inventory levels, leading to significant financial distress [3] Major Company Bankruptcies - Notable bankruptcies include FirstBrandsGroup, with over $10 billion in debt, and Tricolor Holdings, which resulted in a $1.7 billion write-off for JPMorgan [5] - Office Properties Income Trust (OPI) also filed for bankruptcy, burdened by over $1 billion in debt amid a downturn in the office real estate market [5] Causes of Bankruptcy Surge - The surge in bankruptcies is attributed to rising interest rates initiated by the Federal Reserve, which have significantly increased borrowing costs for companies [7] - Tariff policies from the previous administration have further exacerbated the financial strain on companies reliant on imported materials, particularly in the industrial sector [7] Future Outlook - The market is divided on the future of the bankruptcy trend, with optimists viewing it as a normal industry correction, while cautious analysts warn of the potential for worsening conditions if high tariffs and interest rates persist [11] - The current environment is characterized by a struggle for survival among companies, balancing high costs against weak demand [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the current pig cycle is nearing its bottom, with potential for a price increase in the future, driven by supply adjustments in response to declining breeding profits [10][19]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall commodity market showed a weak trend, with the South China Industrial Products Index declining by 0.72% week-on-week [1]. - The top five gainers in industrial products included pulp, paraxylene, urea, aluminum, and zinc, while the biggest losers were asphalt, iron ore, methanol, butadiene rubber, and propylene [1]. Group 2: Pulp Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices increased by 3.10%, showing a bullish trend technically, with low import costs and improved corporate profits [2]. - Domestic pulp inventory at major ports has seen a slight decrease, but remains at a relatively high level, indicating a loose supply [2]. - Demand from downstream paper production has generally increased, with white cardboard starting to stock up for the Spring Festival orders, leading to a recovery in trading [2]. Group 3: Asphalt Market Analysis - Asphalt futures prices fell by 6.59%, influenced by a drop in international oil prices and weak demand [6]. - With decreasing temperatures, road projects in northern regions have largely halted, while southern projects may enter a rush phase, putting pressure on future demand [6]. - Despite a contraction in supply with low operating rates, weak demand has led to significant declines in both futures and spot prices [6]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Overview - The South China Agricultural Products Index rebounded by 0.57% week-on-week, with the top five gainers being soybean meal, chicken eggs, corn, and corn starch, while the biggest losers included red dates, fiberboard, rapeseed, apples, and palm oil [8]. Group 5: Pig Cycle Analysis - The pig cycle is primarily driven by supply-side factors, with stable pork demand in China. When pork prices rise, farmers increase breeding, leading to a subsequent supply surplus and price decline [10]. - Historical trends show that the time from price peak to trough is typically around one year, while the recovery phase can take between one to four years [10]. - Current pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with expectations of a price peak around August 2024, suggesting that prices may be close to their bottom now [10]. Group 6: Breeding and Supply Dynamics - The growth rate of breeding sows is expected to peak in April 2025, after which it will gradually decline, impacting pig supply [12]. - The relationship between pig output and pork prices is inversely correlated, with a lag of about six months [12]. - As of late September 2025, breeding profits have turned negative, leading to a slow reduction in breeding sows, but an acceleration in this reduction is anticipated due to ongoing losses [14][19].

Core Insights - The trend of online, centralized, and intelligent procurement of industrial products has become increasingly significant during this year's "11.11" shopping festival [1] - JD's self-operated hardware city saw a 123% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with over a hundred subcategories experiencing transaction growth exceeding three times [1][2] - The digitalization of production processes, exemplified by Delixi Electric's nearly fully automated factory, highlights the importance of smart management systems in enhancing production efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Procurement Trends - The number of enterprise customers for Delixi Electric increased by 58% during "11.11," with average transaction value rising by 172% [2] - JD's "super supply chain" integrates digital and physical supply chain systems, redefining the procurement experience for industrial products [2][4] - The traditional procurement model is plagued by issues such as fragmentation and lack of transparency, making it difficult for companies to find reliable suppliers [2][4] Group 2: Quality Assurance and Standardization - JD Industrial launched the "China Industrial Product Non-Fake Action" to combat the trust crisis in industrial procurement, promising a "tenfold compensation" for counterfeit products [4] - A full traceability system has been established, ensuring product quality and providing data for supply chain optimization [4] - The "Mercator" standard product library was created to address the issue of inconsistent product naming and coding, facilitating easier procurement [5][7] Group 3: Efficiency and Cost Reduction - The "Mercator" system has significantly reduced the workload for procurement teams, allowing a small number of employees to handle tasks previously requiring many [8][9] - JD's platform enables a large group to complete a procurement process worth approximately 20 million yuan in a single interaction, streamlining operations [9] - The introduction of flexible delivery options, such as "京准达" and "及时达," addresses the urgent procurement needs of industrial clients [9][10] Group 4: Future Innovations - JD Industrial is exploring the application of industrial large models to enhance product selection and recommendations [10] - The integration of location-based services (LBS) technology allows for precise order distribution based on customer location and service ratings [10] - The ongoing development of a comprehensive digital supply chain aims to simplify industrial procurement, making it as easy as purchasing consumer goods [10]

Group 1 - JD Industrial and Delixi Electric signed a strategic cooperation agreement to expand product categories and explore innovative e-commerce models in the industrial sector [1] - JD Industrial reported significant growth during the 11.11 shopping festival, with nearly 200 industrial product categories and close to 1,000 brands achieving a doubling of transaction volume [1] - Delixi Electric, a leading brand in the low-voltage electrical industry, saw a 52% year-on-year increase in transaction volume on JD Industrial's platform, with a 58% increase in enterprise customer numbers and a 172% increase in average transaction value [1] Group 2 - The Chinese industrial products sector, primarily export-oriented, faces challenges in domestic market expansion due to a lack of marketing and operational experience [2] - JD Industrial aims to support the industrial sector in expanding its domestic market by providing digital channels and facilitating one-stop procurement for enterprise customers [2] - JD Industrial has become a leading provider of industrial supply chain technology services, serving approximately 11,000 large enterprises and millions of small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Group 3 - The partnership between JD Industrial and Delixi Electric addresses the challenges of timely procurement in the low-voltage electrical sector, enhancing the customer procurement experience [3] - The introduction of a new entry method for Delixi Electric's products on JD Industrial's platform resulted in a fourfold increase in the number of products entering the warehouse, significantly improving entry efficiency and order fulfillment rates [3] - JD Industrial is committed to driving the digital transformation and high-quality development of China's industrial supply chain through reliable digital supply chain technology and services [3]

Core Insights - JD Industrial and Delixi Electric signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance supply chain capabilities and explore innovative e-commerce models in the industrial sector [1][2] - JD Industrial reported significant growth in sales during the 11.11 shopping festival, with a 113% year-on-year increase in transactions on its one-stop procurement platform for SMEs, JD Gongpin Hui [1][2] - The partnership aims to address challenges faced by foreign trade-oriented industrial companies in expanding their domestic market presence [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The collaboration focuses on expanding product categories and enhancing the digital supply chain solutions provided by JD Industrial [1][2] - JD Industrial has become a leading provider of industrial supply chain technology and services, serving approximately 11,000 large enterprises and millions of SMEs [3][5] Group 2: Sales Performance - JD Industrial's hardware city saw transaction volumes double across about 200 industrial product categories [1] - Delixi Electric's sales in JD Industrial's self-operated warehouse increased by 52% year-on-year, with a 58% rise in enterprise customer numbers and a 172% increase in average order value [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Efficiency - The partnership has led to a fourfold increase in the number of products entering JD Industrial's self-operated warehouses, significantly improving order fulfillment rates and customer experience [4][5] - JD Industrial's service model, "京仓京配," supports various delivery timelines, enhancing the efficiency of industrial product supply and channel fulfillment [5] Group 4: Quality Control Initiative - JD Industrial launched the "No False Marking Action" to combat quality issues in the industrial products sector, implementing strict quality control measures and accountability for suppliers [6][7] - The initiative aims to promote high-quality development in the industrial sector and support manufacturers committed to quality [7][8]