Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The palm oil market has certain expectations for the long - term B50 plan, and the good export data from Malaysia provide some support for palm oil. However, the market is waiting for further guidance from the upcoming USDA monthly supply - demand report [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9218.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 238 yuan or 2.65% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 52.00 yuan or 0.62% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9588.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 14.00 yuan or 0.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9000.00 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.55%, and the spot basis was P09 + - 218.00, with a daily decrease of 288.00 yuan - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 110.00, with a daily decrease of 42.00 yuan - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9700.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 112.00, with a daily increase of 6.00 yuan [1] Market News - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase compared to the same period last month - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 443 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 437 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 481 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 212 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (September shipment) was 186 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (October shipment) was 325 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1149 dollars/ton, an increase of 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1130 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (October shipment) was 562 dollars/ton, an increase of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (December shipment) was 552 dollars/ton, an increase of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core issue arises from a conflict between the Biden administration's reduction of renewable energy subsidies and Elon Musk's criticism of the government, leading to a significant drop in Tesla's stock value and market capitalization [1][3][5] - The White House's actions, including the suspension of contracts with the Pentagon and NASA, have caused widespread concern among Tesla's partners and investors, resulting in a reevaluation of collaborations [3][5][7] - Musk's response includes a shift in investment focus away from the U.S. towards markets in the Middle East and Asia, indicating a potential capital flight from the U.S. tech sector [7][9][15] Group 2 - The political landscape is shifting, with divisions within the Republican Party regarding Musk's influence and the government's response to his actions, leading to a potential "tech cold wave" and investment confidence crisis [9][10][17] - Musk is attempting to establish a new political platform independent of the traditional two-party system, which has garnered support from various sectors, including tech entrepreneurs [13][19][22] - The conflict has prompted a reevaluation of the relationship between business and politics, with implications for future governance and the definition of power in the U.S. [12][22]

Report Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, and inventory. It also mentions macro and industry news, such as the termination of several photovoltaic EPC projects due to policy impacts, and provides trend strength indicators for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [1][3]. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Si2509: The closing price was 8,415 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 435 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 855 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 953,544 lots, a decrease of 515,042 lots from T - 1, an increase of 83,424 lots from T - 5, and an increase of 453,587 lots from T - 22. The open interest was 367,810 lots, a decrease of 13,427 lots from T - 1, a decrease of 22,832 lots from T - 5, and an increase of 220,774 lots from T - 22 [1]. - PS2508: The closing price was 41,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan compared to T - 1 and an increase of 5,820 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 878,217 lots, a decrease of 136,350 lots from T - 1 and an increase of 361,634 lots from T - 5. The open interest was 85,925 lots, a decrease of 12,676 lots from T - 1 and an increase of 8,591 lots from T - 5 [1]. Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varied depending on the benchmark. For example, the spot premium for industrial silicon against East China Si5530 was +395 yuan/ton, up from 185 yuan/ton on T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type recycled material was +5145 yuan/ton, up from - 2,670 yuan/ton on T - 1 [1]. Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 1, T - 5, and 700 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type recycled material was 46000 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, an increase of 10000 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 9500 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. Profits - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 149 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 1004 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of silicon plants in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 4603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 120 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 970 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 1.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to T - 1, an increase of 5.1 yuan compared to T - 5, and an increase of 3.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 2.1 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.60 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 6.5 million tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory was 72.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.70 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8.58 million tons compared to T - 22. The futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 1, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 4.2 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 27.6 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 22 [1]. Macro and Industry News - On July 10, the State Energy Group issued termination announcements for three photovoltaic EPC projects with a total scale of 352MW due to the impact of national new - energy policies. The Jiangsu Nantong 100,000 - kilowatt household - used distributed photovoltaic project was terminated because it could not meet the profit requirements of Longyuan Group under the influence of the new - energy project market entry policy. Previously, the 300MW distributed photovoltaic EPC project of Gangneng (Zhenxiong) New Energy Co., Ltd. was also terminated [1][3]. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon trend strength: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend. - Polysilicon trend strength: 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Overall Viewpoint - Wind power: The price of wind turbine units is stabilizing, and the trend towards larger units along with cost reductions in components will drive continuous improvement in profitability for the turbine segment through 2026. The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, as wind power has a favorable output curve, leading to a potential recovery in wind power development and power station sales. Short-term pressure is expected from June wind power bidding and Q2 performance, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, and expectations for improvement in related indicators are forming [2]. Component Segment - Attention is drawn to the trend of larger turbine units, particularly in the bearing segment, and investment opportunities in European offshore wind products. The current timing is crucial for performance realization [3]. Photovoltaics - This week, the price of polysilicon futures has rebounded due to news factors. After experiencing internal competition policies in Q4 2024 and a rush for installations in Q1 2025, the photovoltaic sector's debt repayment ability did not continue to deteriorate during Q1 2025. However, starting in May 2025, production and prices in the photovoltaic sector have declined, further worsening the sector's debt repayment and profitability. It is anticipated that supply or demand-side support policies will strengthen in the next phase, with a focus on BC cells, perovskite, silicon materials, and low-PB integrated companies [3]. Solid-State Batteries - The market for solid-state batteries has expanded to include copper foil, separators, and other segments, which are currently at low price levels and in distress, but may not have reversed yet. In the short term, there is a risk of a pullback in the solid-state battery sector. However, in the medium term, battery manufacturers are actively advancing semi-solid production lines and full solid-state experiments, leading to increased capital expenditure in the solid-state battery sector, supported by policies. Continuous attention is recommended for solid-state battery front and mid-process equipment, lithium sulfide, solid-state electrolyte membranes, and dry-process positive electrode technologies [3]. Energy Storage - There is a consensus in the market regarding the favorable outlook for large-scale energy storage in Europe and overseas commercial storage. However, there are differing views on the profitability improvement and demand rhythm for domestic large-scale storage following the 136 document. The good bidding data for large-scale storage in May-June is related to the "531" rush for installations and independent energy storage "land grabbing." The mid-term profitability improvement for large-scale storage relies on the construction of the electricity market and improved trading flexibility, while the peak-valley price difference remains cyclical. In the short term, large-scale storage still requires substantial subsidies, but the commercial model is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of large-scale storage bidding data changes in the second half of the year [4][5].