证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 26 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 秦梓月 SAC：S1350525070008 qinziyue@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 26 年汽车出口思考（1）：分析中国 车企对欧洲出口的可行性 ——汽车行业双周报（20251208-20251221） 证券分析师 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 西欧乘用车市场规模较大，新能源（全文均指新能源车）渗透率仍有提升空间，并 且从车种看，B/SUV-B/C/SUV-C 车型或为后续促进西欧乘用车渗透率提升的重点。 西欧市场乘用车年销量超 1000 万辆，2025M1-10 新能源渗透率同比提升 6pct 至 29%，且乘用车销量较高的国家（德国、英国、法国、西班牙、意大利，占西欧乘 用车销量比例超 75%）新能源渗透率普遍在 35%以下（英国 33%、德国 29%、法 国 25%、西班牙 19%、意大利 11%），仍有提升空间。从车种看，西欧市场乘用车 ...

中国光伏行业调研简报 | 2025/09 www.leadleo.com 报告标签：市场规模、产业链、发展趋势、政策导向、企业图谱 2025年9月 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。未经头豹 研究院事先书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名 称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院开展商业活动。 1 头豹调研简报 | 2025/09 光伏行业 Q1：全球和中国光伏行业市场规模有多大？未来增长态势如何？ 130 170 230 390 530 583 680 813 935 980 1,078 48.2 54.9 87.4 216.3 277.6 285.9 294.5 303.3 312.4 321.8 340.0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 202 ...

智通财经记者 | 张蕊 智通财经编辑 | 崔宇 史国伟 此外，可再生能源发电量接近全国总发电量的四成，超过同期第三产业用电量与城乡居民生活用电量之 和。风电、光伏新增发电量超过全社会用电量增量。今年上半年，全国可再生能源发电量达17993亿千 瓦时，同比增加15.6%，约占全部发电量的39.7%。 2025年，新能源行业迎来新一轮政策"组合拳"，政策重心逐渐从"扩规模"转向"抓质效"，以夯实能源安 全保障基础、持续深化绿色低碳转型、统筹推进新型电力系统建设为目标，提出了多项提出针对性政策 举措。同时，作为世界清洁能源发展不可或缺的关键力量，我国正在积极推进与国际接轨的碳足迹管理 体系和碳标识认证制度，积极应对绿色贸易壁垒。 细分行业方面，在我国能源转型进入"质效并举"阶段的大方向下，政策对光伏行业的推动力度也显著增 强，要求分布式光伏具备"可观、可测、可调、可控"能力，实现光伏消纳能力的协同优化。2024年，全 国光伏新增装机2.78亿千瓦，同比增长28%，其中集中式光伏1.59亿千瓦，分布式光伏1.18亿千瓦。截 至2024年12月底，全国累计太阳能发电装机容量约8.86亿千瓦，同比增长45.2%；其中集中 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of building materials is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with a downward shift in the price center and weak operation [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a short - term strong volatile state, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some mills [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The building materials market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage, and a lack of macro and industrial highlights, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center [4]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate showed signs of a rebound. The main contract LC2605 closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 1.76%, with a basis of - 2,090 yuan/ton in a contango structure. The trading volume and open interest increased to varying degrees, and the long - short game intensified [2]. - Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic new - energy policies, but constrained by inventory pressure and cautious downstream procurement, it may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term [2]. - According to SMM data, last week's output was 21,900 tons, a 0.34% increase from the previous period. The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is slow, and salt - lake lithium extraction is restricted, resulting in limited supply increments [3]. - In terms of demand, the production schedule in the energy - storage field is strong, but the demand for power batteries is seasonally weak, and terminal car companies' procurement is cautious. However, the possible continuation of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax exemption policy boosts market confidence [3]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium - mine approval process, but the resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increment is limited [4]. - Some lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises are considering price increases, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs [4]. - The open interest of the main contract has increased sharply, and speculative funds are active. Attention should be paid to possible regulatory measures by the exchange [4].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price demonstrated strong momentum, surging 8.96% to 62.65 yuan on Monday, with trading volume reaching 2.22 billion yuan, marking a recent high [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price has successfully broken through all key moving averages, with MA10 at 54.07 yuan, MA30 at 49.51 yuan, and MA60 at 42.09 yuan, forming a standard bullish arrangement [1] - The RSI indicator reached an overbought level of 72, indicating potential adjustment pressure despite the strong performance [1] - Short-term support levels are at 54.8 yuan and 49.5 yuan, while resistance levels are at 67.6 yuan and 73.6 yuan, suggesting significant price action potential if these levels are breached [3] Market Sentiment - The stock's volatility is notable, with a 5-day amplitude of 19.1%, indicating both opportunities and risks for investors [3] - The market sentiment appears balanced with a 52% probability of price increase, necessitating close monitoring of lithium prices and supply-demand dynamics in the new energy vehicle industry [3] Derivative Products Performance - During the price increase of Ganfeng Lithium, call options exhibited excellent leverage effects, with Societe Generale's call option 27765 and HSBC's call option 14802 both recording a 13% increase amid a 4.77% rise in the underlying stock [3] - The performance of these derivatives is closely related to the recent capital inflow into the new energy sector [3] Derivative Product Selection - In the current market environment, derivative product selection requires precision, with HSBC's call option 14802 offering 2.7x leverage and a strike price of 61.55 yuan, while Societe Generale's call option 27765 also provides 2.7x leverage with a competitive implied volatility [6] - Given Ganfeng Lithium's volatility nearing 20%, investors should focus on time value decay when selecting call options and adopt short-term trading strategies with strict stop-loss settings [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The energy storage market is driven by growth in China and the United States, with China exceeding 200 GWh in tenders from January to August 2025, and U.S. electricity consumption growth accelerating to 2.5% [1][10] - Global pure energy storage cell shipments are approximately 500 GWh, with total installed capacity around 280 GWh, indicating a projected demand growth rate of about 45% [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - Domestic new energy policies aim to address consumption issues and stabilize photovoltaic and wind power installations through capacity pricing mechanisms [1][4] - The electricity price cycle is expected to bottom out in the second half of 2025 or 2026, with subsequent recovery anticipated [1][7] - Energy storage system profitability relies on charging and discharging cycles, capacity compensation, and the average price difference between charging and discharging [1][18] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a decrease in charging and discharging cycles from 0.8 to 0.6 can reduce the internal rate of return (IRR) from 7% to 3% [2][25] Market Dynamics - The recent performance of the new energy sector has been characterized by a focus on high-capacity battery segments, particularly in energy storage lithium batteries, driven by strong growth in electric vehicles and energy storage industries [2] - The impact of policies such as the Shandong Province's Document No. 136 has led to a significant increase in project launches across various provinces [3][4] Future Outlook - The energy storage demand is expected to grow by over 20% in the coming year, with projections for installed capacity in China reaching between 120 to 130 GWh in 2025 and potentially 200 GWh in 2026 [8][12] - The economic viability of energy storage is closely linked to the development of wind and solar energy, with faster growth in these sectors likely to expand price differentials and enhance storage economics [26] Investment Opportunities - Key investment areas include the Ningde Times supply chain, particularly solid-state and semi-solid materials, as well as potential price increases in the supply chain [9] - The profitability of energy storage projects is significantly influenced by regional capacity compensation policies, which vary widely across provinces [22][29] Additional Considerations - The capacity compensation policies and their effectiveness are critical for project profitability, with some provinces offering substantial subsidies while others provide minimal support [17][22] - The operational efficiency of energy storage systems, including charging and discharging efficiency, plays a crucial role in determining overall profitability [21][27][28] Conclusion - The energy storage market is poised for significant growth driven by favorable policies, technological advancements, and increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. Investors should closely monitor regional policy changes and market dynamics to identify potential opportunities and risks.

Summary of TCL Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TCL Technology - **Key Subsidiaries**: Huaxing Optoelectronics, TCL Zhonghuan Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 2025 H1 revenue reached 85.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2][7] - **Net Profit**: Net profit improved to 30 million, compared to a loss of 470 million in the same period last year [2][7] - **Net Profit Attributable to Parent**: 1.88 billion, significantly up from 1 billion year-on-year [2][8] - **Huaxing Optoelectronics**: Revenue grew by 15.4% to 46.1 billion, with net profit increasing by 19.2 billion [2][8] - **TCL Zhonghuan**: Revenue decreased by 17% to 13.4 billion, with a net loss of 4.8 billion, a 52% decline [2][8] Business Segments Display Panel Business - **Market Position**: Huaxing holds the largest market share in the 55-inch and above segment and leads in the gaming monitor market [2][14] - **Product Performance**: - Mid-size revenue grew by 43% due to T9 full production and IT product shipments [2][13] - Large-size revenue increased by 8%, maintaining stable market prices [2][13] - Small-size shipments increased significantly, but revenue growth was not notable [2][13] - **Acquisition**: Completed acquisition of LG Display's Guangzhou assets (T11 line), with smooth operations and a yield rate above 95% [2][15] Semiconductor Business - **Performance**: TCL Zhonghuan's semiconductor silicon wafer business revenue grew by 38.2%, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market [2][4] - **Challenges**: Despite a revenue decline, operational improvements led to a 37% quarter-on-quarter net profit improvement [2][4] Solar Industry - **Market Impact**: The solar sector faced challenges due to policy changes and market fluctuations, but losses narrowed in H1 [2][6] - **Strategic Focus**: Emphasis on cost management and operational efficiency to address price volatility and oversupply [2][6] Future Outlook - **Display Market**: Anticipated panel industry utilization rates to reach 83%-85% in Q4 2025, with positive demand driven by upcoming sports events [3][38] - **OLED Strategy**: Continued focus on high-end OLED products and expansion into IT and automotive sectors [3][12] - **Global Strategy**: TCL Zhonghuan plans to enhance global strategies, particularly in the Philippines and the Middle East, while optimizing cost management [3][23] Key Trends and Innovations - **Technology Advancements**: Progress in next-generation display technologies, including MLED and printed OLED, with mass production breakthroughs [3][12][35] - **Market Dynamics**: The global display industry is expected to see structural demand growth, particularly in high-refresh-rate and large-size products [3][19] Additional Insights - **Cash Flow**: Strong cash flow performance with 27.27 billion in H1, significantly improved year-on-year [2][8] - **Debt Management**: Healthy capital structure with a debt ratio of 67.7% and a focus on reducing interest-bearing liabilities [2][8] - **Dividend Policy**: The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with a historical average payout ratio of 37-38% [3][33] This summary encapsulates the key points from the TCL Technology conference call, highlighting financial performance, business segments, future outlook, and strategic initiatives.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The palm oil market has certain expectations for the long - term B50 plan, and the good export data from Malaysia provide some support for palm oil. However, the market is waiting for further guidance from the upcoming USDA monthly supply - demand report [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9218.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 238 yuan or 2.65% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 52.00 yuan or 0.62% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9588.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 14.00 yuan or 0.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9000.00 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.55%, and the spot basis was P09 + - 218.00, with a daily decrease of 288.00 yuan - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 110.00, with a daily decrease of 42.00 yuan - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9700.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 112.00, with a daily increase of 6.00 yuan [1] Market News - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase compared to the same period last month - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 443 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 437 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 481 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 212 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (September shipment) was 186 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (October shipment) was 325 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1149 dollars/ton, an increase of 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1130 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (October shipment) was 562 dollars/ton, an increase of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (December shipment) was 552 dollars/ton, an increase of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core issue arises from a conflict between the Biden administration's reduction of renewable energy subsidies and Elon Musk's criticism of the government, leading to a significant drop in Tesla's stock value and market capitalization [1][3][5] - The White House's actions, including the suspension of contracts with the Pentagon and NASA, have caused widespread concern among Tesla's partners and investors, resulting in a reevaluation of collaborations [3][5][7] - Musk's response includes a shift in investment focus away from the U.S. towards markets in the Middle East and Asia, indicating a potential capital flight from the U.S. tech sector [7][9][15] Group 2 - The political landscape is shifting, with divisions within the Republican Party regarding Musk's influence and the government's response to his actions, leading to a potential "tech cold wave" and investment confidence crisis [9][10][17] - Musk is attempting to establish a new political platform independent of the traditional two-party system, which has garnered support from various sectors, including tech entrepreneurs [13][19][22] - The conflict has prompted a reevaluation of the relationship between business and politics, with implications for future governance and the definition of power in the U.S. [12][22]

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) introduced by President Trump is significantly impacting the U.S. renewable energy sector, shifting market expectations and prompting analysts to downgrade several solar companies while creating "winners" and "losers" in the industry [1] Winners and Losers - Companies favored under the new policy include First Solar (FSLR.US), Bloom Energy (BE.US), and Sunrun (RUN.US), which are expected to benefit from expanded subsidy policies and favorable technology licensing [2] - Conversely, Fluence Energy (FLNC.US), Nextracker (NXT.US), Shoals Technologies (SHLS.US), and Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT.US) face greater policy resistance and market saturation risks, leading to rating downgrades for these firms [2] Utility Solar Outlook - The outlook for utility-scale solar projects appears bleak, as the bill accelerates the expiration of tax incentives for solar and wind energy, with potential construction deadlines and grid access bottlenecks limiting project deployment [3] - Nextracker and Shoals have had their ratings downgraded from "outperform" to "neutral," with Nextracker's target price reduced by 3% to $65 [3] Manufacturing and Storage Boost - Domestic clean energy manufacturers are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the OBBB, with the 45X manufacturing tax credit retained and restrictions placed on foreign entities from receiving subsidies [4] - Target prices for Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) and First Solar have been adjusted upward, reflecting their eligibility for subsidies due to U.S. manufacturing [4] Fuel Cells and Nuclear Energy Favor - The bill reinstates a 30% investment tax credit for natural gas fuel cells, benefiting companies like Bloom Energy, which sees its target price raised by 19% to $31 [5] - New nuclear technologies also receive extended tax credit support until 2033, positioning the nuclear sector as a long-term winner under the OBBB [5] Broad Impact on Clean Energy Technology - While the OBBB retains manufacturing subsidies and storage incentives, the accelerated exit of solar and wind support policies may lead to a short-term demand surge followed by uncertainty [7] - The bill significantly restricts opportunities for Chinese companies to receive U.S. clean energy subsidies, posing challenges for firms reliant on Chinese manufacturing for batteries or solar panels [7]