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快手-W(01024):2Q业绩超预期,可灵B端商业化在即
HTSC· 2025-08-22 02:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, reaching 35 billion RMB, which exceeded consensus expectations by 2% [1]. - Gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 55.7%, and adjusted net profit increased by 20% to 5.6 billion RMB, surpassing expectations by 11% [1]. - The company is expected to accelerate its B-end commercialization with the launch of a subscription plan in Q3, potentially driving significant revenue growth [2]. - The advertising revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, slightly above expectations, with a notable increase in the monetization rate of internal advertising [3]. - E-commerce revenue saw a 26% year-on-year increase, with a growing proportion of general merchandise e-commerce [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 35 billion RMB, a 13% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 2% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 was 5.6 billion RMB, a 20% increase year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 11% [1]. - The company announced a special dividend of 0.46 HKD per share, translating to a yield of approximately 0.6% [5]. Business Segments - Live streaming revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, while advertising and e-commerce revenues increased by 13% and 26%, respectively [1]. - The advertising segment is expected to see a 13% year-on-year growth in Q3, although it may fall short of the consensus expectation of 16% due to regulatory impacts on overseas advertising [1][3]. - The e-commerce segment's revenue structure is diversifying, with a 26% year-on-year growth in Q2, and the GMV increased by 18% [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.9%, primarily driven by accelerated growth in advertising and AI-related services [20]. - The target price for the company has been raised to 85.28 HKD, reflecting an increase in expected contributions from the AI segment [5][24]. - The company is expected to launch a new subscription service targeting professional and enterprise users in Q3, which is anticipated to enhance B-end revenue generation [2].
没有一个互联网平台是靠补贴做起来的(二)
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-16 07:43
Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between food delivery subsidies and their effectiveness in converting users to e-commerce platforms, suggesting that the cost of acquiring users through food delivery can be comparable to e-commerce if certain conditions are met [2][3][5] - It posits that if food delivery is used primarily as a tool for acquiring e-commerce users, it may indicate poor performance in the food delivery sector itself, leading to low user retention and conversion rates [8][9][11] - The article highlights that large-scale subsidies in the food delivery market, such as those by JD and Alibaba, may not yield the expected user conversion rates, with JD's conversion rate reportedly not exceeding 3% [12][27][33] Group 2 - The article argues that Alibaba's strategy in the food delivery market is not solely focused on food delivery but is part of a larger strategy to bolster its e-commerce and instant retail businesses, although this approach may not be sustainable [36][106] - It emphasizes that Alibaba lacks the financial strength to outspend Meituan significantly, suggesting that a follow-the-leader strategy rather than an innovative one is being employed [105][108] - The article concludes that the current food delivery subsidy war is unique as it occurs in a mature market, where large-scale subsidies may not be effective and could lead to organizational inefficiencies and corruption [100][109][110]