广发证券批零社服首席分析师 嵇文欣 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些年标杆性企业的优秀表现，让资本市场进一步认识到现制茶饮行业的发展潜力，并将板块贴上了新 消费的标签。不少投资者也对这一赛道表现出了浓厚兴趣。针对现制茶饮行业，我们可以从供需两侧、 长短期驱动、短期外卖补贴影响等维度展开分析。 益，而部分中小品牌加盟商很可能出现增收不增利的情况。 随着外卖补贴大战趋于理性，市场担心后续同店营业额是否仍有增长支撑、明年4月起的同店营业额高 基数压力，以及补贴教育出的低价习惯或将使消费者对原价茶饮的接受度降低。基于对行业的分析，我 们认为：（1）头部品牌拳头产品优惠力度相对较低，做活动的产品大多为低价引流品，产 ...

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee's revenue increased by 50.2% year-on-year to 15.287 billion yuan in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.7% to 1.278 billion yuan [1][6] Revenue and Profitability - The primary reason for the revenue growth without corresponding profit increase is the fierce competition in the food delivery market [2] - In Q3, Luckin Coffee added 3,008 new stores, reaching a total of 29,214 stores, marking an 11.5% quarter-on-quarter growth [3] - The average monthly active users reached a historical high of 112 million, a 40.6% year-on-year increase, with 42 million new users added in the quarter [3] Cost Structure and Efficiency - The proportion of raw material costs to total net revenue decreased from 39% in the same period of 2024 to 36%, with raw material costs increasing by 41% to 5.5 billion yuan [4] - Rent and other operating costs as a percentage of total net revenue fell from 22% to 20%, with these costs rising by 36% to 3.1 billion yuan [4] - Sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of total net revenue decreased from 6% to 5%, with these expenses growing by 28% to 751 million yuan [4] - General and administrative expenses also saw a reduction in proportion from 6% to 5%, increasing by 25% to 793 million yuan [4] Delivery Costs and Profit Impact - Delivery costs surged to 2.89 billion yuan, a 211.4% increase, leading to a rise in delivery cost percentage from 9.1% to 18.9%, which reduced operating profit margin to 11.6% [5] - The increase in delivery costs contributed to the decline in net profit, contrasting with Yum China, which saw a 7.8% increase in operating profit [6] Competitive Landscape - The coffee and tea beverage sector is characterized by high-frequency consumption, necessitating competitive pricing to maintain market share [7] - Yum China's higher average transaction value and stronger membership system provide a competitive edge, allowing them to mitigate delivery commission costs [8] Strategic Direction - Luckin Coffee is exploring structural solutions, emphasizing in-store pickup as a primary consumption method, while viewing delivery as a supplementary channel [9] - The company anticipates short-term fluctuations and pressures on same-store sales growth as delivery subsidies decrease [9]

瑞幸咖啡三季度 营收同比增超 50%！门店直逼 3万家_南方+_南 方plus 日前，瑞幸咖啡 发布2025年第三 季度财报。报告 期内，瑞幸咖啡 营收达152.9亿 元，同比增长 50.2%，净利润 12.78亿元，较 2024年同期的 13.14亿元下滑 2.7%，净利润率 从去年同期的 12.9%降至 8.4%。 营收增速创年内 新高，门店增至 2.92万家 从全年增长节奏 看，瑞幸三季度 营收增速明显加 快。数据显示， 瑞幸2025年一季 度营收88.65亿 元，同比增长 41.2%，二季度 营收123.59亿 元，同比增长 47.1%。到了三 季度，瑞幸的营 收仿佛"拉了倍 记者发现，瑞幸 前三季度营收总 和已达365.14亿 元，对照2024年 全年437亿元的 营收，瑞幸此时 的完成度已达 83.5%，其2025 年营业收入或将 超越2024年。 瑞幸的高营收增 速，主要来源于 其门店扩张速 度。财报显示， 截至三季度末， 瑞幸门店总数达 29214家，较二 季度末净增3008 家。其中，中国 大陆（含香港） 新增2979家，海 外市场新加坡、 马来西亚、美国 分别新增5家、 21家、3家，线 ...

11月17日晚间，瑞幸咖啡（OTC：LKNCY）披露2025年第三季度财报。外卖补贴成为一把"双刃剑"，助力公司营收规模创新高，却侵蚀利润空间，导致 公司出现增收不增利的情况。 今年第三季度，瑞幸实现营收152.87亿元，同比增长50.2%；归母净利润12.78亿元，同比下滑2.74%；净利率由去年同期的12.91%下滑至8.26%，这是瑞幸 2022年以来三季报利润指标的最低水平。 外卖运营成本吞噬利润 瑞幸是中国第一大咖啡品牌，截至第三季度末门店总数已攀升至29214家，其中自营门店18882家、联营门店10332家，单季度净增3008家。凭借庞大的门 店网络和稳定的运营能力，瑞幸成为今年夏天各平台"外卖补贴战"冲单的重点合作品牌之一。 黎辉透露，外卖"百亿补贴"是由平台和商家共同承担的，现在的补贴规则非常动态、不断变化，不同产品线、不同时段、不同地域的补贴都不同。 财报发布后的业绩电话会上，外卖订单对利润的影响也成为分析师关注的重点。第四季度茶饮将进入消费淡季，叠加后续平台补贴力度的逐渐退坡，将给 瑞幸业绩增长带来新的挑战。 瑞幸咖啡CEO郭谨一指出，平台补贴力度已开始收缩，预计未来补贴形式会更为精细化 ...

11月17日晚间，瑞幸咖啡公布2025年第三季度财报。在本财季，瑞幸咖啡净营收152.9亿元人民币，同 比增长50%；净利润12.8亿元人民币，同比下降1.9%。 在电话会上，瑞幸CEO（首席执行官）郭谨一着重回应了外卖补贴对咖啡行业带来的影响。他表示，今 年外卖渠道的补贴力度在客观上推动了瑞幸订单量和客户数量爆发式增长，随着补贴开始向精细化方向 调整，瑞幸在2026年同店增长会遇到挑战和压力。他同时认为，外卖模式不是咖啡的最优解，咖啡业务 将回归自提为主的常态。 郭谨一同时表示："我们会持续关注美国资本市场，但公司目前对于重返主板上市没有明确的时间表。 公司现阶段的首要任务仍是践行公司的业务战略。" （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee reported a net revenue of 15.29 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 1.28 billion RMB, which is a decline of 1.9% compared to the previous year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The significant increase in net revenue indicates strong demand and effective business strategies [1] - The slight decrease in net profit suggests potential cost pressures or changes in operational efficiency [1] Market Dynamics - CEO Guo Jinyi highlighted that the subsidies in the delivery channel have led to explosive growth in order volume and customer numbers [1] - As subsidies shift towards a more refined approach, the company anticipates challenges and pressures for same-store growth in 2026 [1] - Guo emphasized that the delivery model may not be the optimal solution for coffee, indicating a potential shift back to a self-pickup model [1] Strategic Focus - The company is currently focused on executing its business strategy and does not have a clear timeline for returning to the main board of the U.S. capital market [1] - Continuous monitoring of the U.S. capital market remains a priority for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The competition between major players in the food delivery and hotel booking sectors is intensifying, with potential implications for market dynamics and investment opportunities [3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent competition between JD.com and Meituan in the food delivery sector has raised concerns about the viability of Ele.me as a competitor [3]. - The hotel booking market has a relatively shallow competitive moat, making it susceptible to new entrants and competition [3]. - Meituan's hotel booking prices are now comparable to those of Ctrip, indicating a lack of customer loyalty and price sensitivity among users [5]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - Meituan's market capitalization of over HKD 600 billion is lower compared to Ctrip's over HKD 400 billion, suggesting potential undervaluation [8]. - Market participants are overly focused on short-term profit feedback, which could lead to stock price volatility for Meituan if Q3 profits fall short of expectations [10]. - The current round of subsidies is seen as a battle between market leaders, with the potential for significant casualties among major players [12]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Companies can leverage food delivery subsidies not only to attract consumers but also to solidify existing business and address competition [10]. - The ability of major players to adapt and invest strategically will determine their survival in a rapidly changing market [16]. - Continuous research and monitoring of market trends are essential for making informed investment decisions [16].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has included Gu Ming (01364) in its Asia-Pacific Conviction Buy List, projecting over 20% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit for the next two years, supported by increasing penetration of ready-to-drink beverages and market share expansion, leading to an "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 32 [1] Group 1 - The company has demonstrated strong competitiveness, with a year-to-date growth in same-store gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding 20%, significantly outperforming other mid-priced ready-to-drink beverage brands [1] - The growth is attributed not only to delivery subsidies but also to the successful launch of new products and expansion of product categories (such as coffee), along with strong execution capabilities [1] - Despite market concerns regarding same-store sales growth after the normalization of delivery subsidies next year, the company is expected to maintain growth through steady store expansion and increased product categories and consumption scenarios [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing fierce competition in the food delivery market, highlighting significant financial losses for major players like Alibaba and Meituan due to aggressive subsidy strategies [2][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Alibaba's food delivery business is projected to incur losses between 35 billion to 40 billion yuan in Q3 2025, aligning with predictions from Morgan Stanley [2]. - In Q2 of this year, Alibaba's losses from food delivery investments were estimated at 14 billion to 15 billion yuan, while JD.com and Meituan also faced substantial losses exceeding 10 billion yuan [2]. - The average daily subsidy expenditure for Taobao Flash Purchase in July and August was approximately 350 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - There has been a noticeable reduction in subsidy intensity since early September, although high-value coupons are still being issued [3]. - Meituan's stock price declined following its Q2 earnings report, while Alibaba's stock saw an increase before experiencing a drop after Q3 guidance disclosure [3]. - The competition has led to a significant increase in low-value orders, with over 75% of new orders costing less than 15 yuan [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights and Innovations - Meituan emphasizes its advantages in fulfillment capabilities and merchant service systems, claiming a 13% faster delivery speed compared to competitors [4]. - Meituan has introduced a premium delivery service that reduces delivery times significantly, with black diamond members enjoying free access [4]. - The integration of AI applications to enhance operational efficiency is a key focus for Meituan, with significant investments in AI technology [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Positioning - Alibaba's strategic focus on integrating its various platforms, such as Taobao Flash Purchase and its membership programs, aims to leverage high-value consumer segments [6]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a lack of clear strategic direction from some players, while others, like Alibaba, are consolidating resources effectively [6]. - Meituan's commitment to maintaining a strong market position is evident through its ongoing investments in technology and service enhancements [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Mixue Group has significantly declined, losing 40% over the past three months, with a market capitalization decrease of 50 billion HKD since early July, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth amid increasing competition and operational challenges [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.87 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, with a gross profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 38.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 44.1% [3]. - The company’s main business revenue from selling materials and equipment to franchisees reached 14.5 billion RMB, marking a 39.6% increase [4]. Market Dynamics - The entry of JD.com into the food delivery market has intensified competition, leading to a price war that has benefited Mixue Group, positioning it as one of the winners in the delivery battle [3]. - Goldman Sachs has expressed concerns about the end of high subsidies from delivery platforms, predicting a normalization of Mixue's growth rates and adjusting its target stock price from 599 HKD to 570 HKD based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2026 [3]. Operational Challenges - The rapid expansion of Mixue Group's store network, which surpassed 53,000 locations, has led to management challenges, including food safety issues reported at specific outlets [4][5]. - There have been over 10,000 complaints on platforms regarding product quality and customer service, highlighting significant operational risks [5].