Report Overview - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Weekly Report: Cost Increase, Loss Expansion, Short - term Price Support" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Xu Yuhua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has increased and losses have expanded, providing short - term support for prices. The macro - environment has information disturbances from anti - involution policies, causing the futures market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. The silicon ferrosilicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise to over 40% by 2035. Baosteel will focus on long products and thick plates. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks has decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has postponed trade threats against China and is considering sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Some Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: After the previous profit improvement, production has quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged earlier, and inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of blue charcoal and electricity has risen, while the overall demand for steel remains weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 315 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 390 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat the silicon ferrosilicon main contract as oscillating between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 39,388 lots. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 110, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 18,309, a decrease of 1,524. The Ningxia silicon ferrosilicon price was 5,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [9][11][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon basis was - 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: This week (September 4), the national silicon ferrosilicon production capacity utilization rate was 36.34%, a decrease of 0.20%. The daily average production was 16,430 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 20,076.1 tons, a decrease of 2.42%. The national silicon ferrosilicon weekly supply was 115,000 tons [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the national silicon ferrosilicon inventory was 66,560 tons, an increase of 5.80%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 4,000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 1, the electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon ferrosilicon remained unchanged. As of September 4, the average price of blue charcoal in Ningxia remained unchanged. As of September 5, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 350 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost remained unchanged, and the profit decreased by 130 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills was 228,840 tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. From January to July 2025, the total silicon ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The August silicon ferrosilicon tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided with frequent shifts between long and short positions. In the short - term, the futures price is mainly determined by the industry, with a game between coke producers and steelmakers. The futures price is expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to treat the main coke contract as a volatile operation [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise above 40% by 2035. Baosteel identifies long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks is about 25 trillion yuan, shrinking by 107.8 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and declining for three consecutive years [8]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US suspends trade threats against China and considers sanctions on Russia. Trump signs a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions avoid US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [8]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water output is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons. Affected by steel - mill production control during the military parade, iron - water output drops significantly. The coal - mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking - coal inventory increases. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton [8]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the contract position increased by 3,487 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 18.5 points. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 300 lots, and the rebar - coke ratio increased by 0.03 points [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 4, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,530 yuan/ton, and the coking - coal ex - factory price at the Ganqimaodu Port in Mongolia remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. As of September 5, the coke basis was - 51.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 points [26]. - **Production Data**: In July, the raw - coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In July 2025, China's coking - coal output was 4.08938 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [28]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.61%, a decrease of 0.09%. The daily coke output is 51,210 tons, a decrease of 70 tons. Coke inventory is 40,710 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The total coking - coal inventory is 780,950 tons, a decrease of 38,920 tons. The available coking - coal days are 11.5 days, a decrease of 0.55 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons from last week and an increase of 62,300 tons from last year. As of August 29, 2025, the total coke inventory is 8.5415 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 12.88% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory decreased by 79,000 tons, and the steel - mill coke inventory increased by 136,400 tons. The daily coke output of 247 steel mills is 45,720 tons, a decrease of 370 tons. The capacity utilization rate is 84.31%, a decrease of 0.68%. The available coke days are 11.71 days, an increase of 0.93 days [40]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate Data**: In July 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.8485 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.64% and a year - on - year increase of 6.42% [47]. - **City - Level Real Estate**: As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities was 531,500 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 31.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%. The transaction area of second - tier cities was 965,100 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.79% and a year - on - year increase of 17.68% [53].