Core Viewpoint - The potential new sanctions from the U.S. against Russia are unlikely to have a substantial impact on the Russian economy or its high-level decision-making, as experts believe that previous sanctions have already diminished their effectiveness [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Their Impact - Experts argue that even if the U.S. imposes a 100% tariff on Russian goods, it would not significantly harm the Russian economy due to the low volume of Russian exports to the U.S., which amounted to $3.5 billion in 2024, a nearly 90% decrease from 2021 [2]. - The primary Russian exports to the U.S. are fertilizers, and imposing tariffs on these products may not be well-received by American farmers, as it would increase agricultural production costs and reduce competitiveness [2]. - The U.S. has threatened secondary tariffs on trade partners of Russia, particularly targeting oil exports, which could impact countries like India and Brazil [2][4]. Group 2: International Energy Market Concerns - The 18th round of EU sanctions has further restricted Russian oil exports, raising concerns about international energy supply volatility, with a daily supply gap of nearly 10 million barrels that cannot be easily resolved [3]. - Experts warn that excluding Russian oil from the international market could lead to energy shortages and necessitate long-term investments in development, production, and transportation [3]. Group 3: Russia's Economic Resilience - Russian officials assert that the economy continues to function under sanctions and has developed a certain level of "immunity" to external pressures, indicating that secondary tariffs would not have a significant effect [3][4]. - The Russian government emphasizes the legitimacy of its trade partnerships and the right of sovereign nations to choose their economic alliances, suggesting that external pressures will not alter Russia's commitment to its national interests [3][4].

Group 1 - India is accelerating the purchase of non-Russian oil to alleviate sanctions pressure, despite the Modi government's high-profile stance [2] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on India, which will take effect in 21 days, giving India some leeway [2][4] - India earns $45.8 billion annually from the U.S., with a bilateral trade total of $190 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of this trade relationship [4] Group 2 - Modi has called on Indian citizens to buy domestic products but has not prohibited refineries from purchasing Russian oil, although data shows otherwise [6] - Major Indian oil companies have ceased purchasing Russian oil, with Indian Oil Corporation buying 5 million barrels from the U.S. and 2 million barrels from the UAE [6] - The volume of non-Russian oil purchased by Indian companies surged from 7 million barrels to 22 million barrels, with deliveries scheduled for September and October [8] Group 3 - The 22 million barrels of oil include supplies from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Libya, and Africa, primarily focusing on U.S. crude [9] - Since Trump's administration, India's energy purchases from the U.S. have increased significantly, with crude oil purchases up by 51% and LNG purchases doubling [11] - India appears to be pragmatically balancing the costs and benefits between the 50% tariff and the purchase of Russian oil, indicating a potential loss for Russia in the energy market [13]

Core Points - The meeting between Russian President Putin and US Middle East envoy Wittekov is crucial, with a deadline for a "last ultimatum" approaching on August 8, raising questions about potential US actions against Russia [1][2] - If the talks yield no positive results, the US may consider various policy options to respond to Russia [1] Group 1: Potential US Actions - One possible action is to impose additional tariffs directly on Russia, although the impact may be limited due to the relatively small annual trade volume of over $3 billion between the US and Russia [1] - Another option could involve secondary sanctions on Russia's energy trade partners, with previous discussions indicating potential tariffs as high as 500% [1] - Targeted sanctions against specific Russian industries, such as the shipping fleet, are also being considered, with recent reports suggesting more stringent measures [1] Group 2: Comprehensive Strategy - The US may ultimately adopt a comprehensive approach depending on the outcomes of the talks, indicating a flexible response strategy [2]

Group 1 - Current spot silver trading is above $38.02, with an opening price of $37.82 and a current price of $38.06, reflecting a 0.58% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $38.09, while the lowest is $37.81, indicating a bullish short-term trend for spot silver [1][4] - Spot silver has broken above the 10-day moving average, with a strong short-term outlook, and potential upward movement if it surpasses $38 [4] Group 2 - Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports due to continued purchases of Russian oil, raising some tariffs to 50% [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned China about potential significant tariffs if it continues to buy sanctioned Russian oil, highlighting selective enforcement of sanctions [3] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China aim to extend a 90-day tariff truce, with potential for tariffs to rise significantly if talks fail, increasing global trade tensions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU has incurred losses exceeding 1 trillion euros (approximately 8.3 trillion RMB) due to the termination of energy cooperation and reduction of bilateral trade with Russia [1][3] - The trade volume between the EU and Russia has drastically decreased from 417 billion euros in 2013 to nearly zero, indicating significant profit loss for the EU [3] - The refusal to cooperate with Russia has negatively impacted the competitiveness of the EU economy, with natural gas prices being four to five times higher than those in the US, and electricity prices two to three times higher [3] Group 2 - The EU has agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, which targets key sectors including banking, energy, and military industries, and aims to continue pressure until the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - Russia's presidential press secretary stated that the country will conduct a comprehensive assessment of the new EU sanctions to minimize negative impacts, emphasizing that such unilateral measures are illegal and opposed by Russia [4] - Each new round of sanctions is described as a double-edged sword, suggesting that they may also have adverse effects on the countries imposing them [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The President of the European Commission will meet with Trump on Sunday, and Trump said there is a 50 - 50 chance of reaching an agreement. The market is also concerned about US sanctions on Russia, with Trump threatening sanctions if a cease - fire agreement is not reached within 10 days. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased slightly, US EIA commercial inventories decreased, diesel inventories in ARA and Singapore continued to decline, while diesel inventories in the US and China increased. European diesel cracks strengthened slightly, and global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. In China, refinery operations fluctuated, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened quarter - on - quarter, limiting the scope for further increasing operations. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the impact of the peak season has been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non - OPEC production and near - term diesel inventories [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The US imposed the largest - scale sanctions on Iran since 2018, targeting over 50 entities and individuals and more than 50 oil tankers and container ships controlled by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hussein Shamkhani [3]. - European natural gas prices neared a two - week high as US President Trump threatened to punish India for buying Russian energy, raising concerns about global supply. Trump increased pressure on Russia to reach a cease - fire in Ukraine, and traders expected the US to take action against Russian oil and gas buyers including India. Gas prices briefly dropped after Polish Prime Minister Tusk saw new prospects for Russia to stop the invasion of Ukraine [4]. - Indian refiners asked the Indian government for clarification on whether their purchases of Russian crude would be affected by Trump's new social media post. Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the US starting August 1, and warned of additional penalties due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy. Indian companies buy over 1 million barrels of Russian crude per day [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day [5]. - In the same week, US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day [6]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 1.84% increase [6]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year [6]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [6]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6]. - From July 18 - 24, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In China, refinery output of gasoline and diesel decreased, and inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries declined quarter - on - quarter [6].

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin claims that U.S.-China trade negotiations are progressing smoothly, but the Trump administration prioritizes "quality" over urgency in signing an agreement [1] - Mnuchin threatens to include China's purchases of Russian and Iranian oil in the negotiation agenda, stating that China is a major buyer of sanctioned Iranian and Russian oil [1] - The U.S. strategy aims to pressure China by leveraging its significant oil imports from Russia, which account for 19.6% of China's total oil imports, with 84% of Russian oil exports going to China and India in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's approach appears contradictory, as it seeks to use tariffs to compel China to abandon Iranian and Russian oil while simultaneously expressing a desire for China to purchase more U.S. oil [2] - This inconsistency highlights Washington's strategic confusion, as it attempts to apply economic pressure while also coveting China's market purchasing power [2] - Mnuchin's introduction of new conditions for negotiations reflects an effort to add leverage, but tying energy security to trade negotiations is unlikely to succeed and reveals U.S. anxiety over its inability to solely rely on economic measures against China and Russia [2]

Core Insights - Brazil's establishment of a tax office in Beijing is a strategic move aimed at reshaping South America's geopolitical landscape and reducing U.S. influence [1][5][12] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Relations - The U.S. government, under Trump, threatened to increase tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10% to 50%, which is a significant escalation [3][5] - This threat was intended to pressure Brazil, but instead, it strengthened President Lula's resolve to pursue an independent strategy [5][11] Group 2: Economic Strategy - The tax office is part of a broader strategy to attract Chinese investment and facilitate the ambitious "Two Oceans Railway" project, which aims to connect Brazil's Santos port to Peru's Pacific port [7][9] - The railway project is expected to generate over $100 billion in economic benefits annually and significantly alter trade routes in South America [9][12] Group 3: China-Brazil Cooperation - Brazil's trade with China reached $188.1 billion in 2024, compared to $92 billion with the U.S., indicating a shift towards deeper economic ties with China [13] - The establishment of the tax office signals Brazil's readiness to eliminate technical barriers for Chinese investment, enhancing cooperation [10][16] Group 4: Political Implications - The move to establish the tax office and pursue the railway project demonstrates Brazil's ambition to assert its leadership in South America and reduce dependency on U.S. trade routes [12][16] - However, Brazil faces internal political instability and external pressures from the U.S., which could impact the success of these initiatives [13][14]

Core Points - The upcoming US-China talks may address China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, as indicated by US Treasury Secretary Becerra [1] - The US government has threatened to impose a 100% punitive tariff on Russian goods if a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not reached within 50 days [1][8] - China's response to the US threats has been firm, emphasizing that trade negotiations should not be dictated by unilateral US demands [22][24] Group 1: US Policy and Strategy - The US has implemented a strategy of increasing tariffs to pressure countries, including allies, to comply with its demands [3][5] - Trump's administration has linked the oil issue to broader geopolitical strategies, using it as leverage in negotiations with China [18][20] - The US's approach has been characterized as hegemonic, disregarding the interests of other nations [16][24] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Trade - China is projected to import one-third of its oil from Russia in 2024, with 68% of transactions already settled in RMB, indicating significant economic implications if US tariffs are enacted [10][20] - India's energy security is also at risk, as Russian oil constitutes nearly 25% of its imports, forcing India to choose between economic repercussions or confrontation with the US [12][20] - The potential for increased oil prices and domestic inflation in China is a concern if the US follows through with its tariff plans [10][20] Group 3: China’s Response and Regional Cooperation - China has made it clear that it will not yield to US pressure regarding its energy partnerships with Russia and Iran, asserting its right to protect its national interests [22][24] - The cooperation between China, Russia, and India in energy projects is strengthening, with significant investments planned, such as India's $20 billion investment in Russian oil [28] - The ongoing development of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project between China and Russia is expected to continue despite external pressures [26][28]

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russian goods if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, impacting global trade dynamics [1][3] - This tariff threat extends to countries that trade with Russia or purchase Russian oil, indicating a broader strategy to exert pressure on Russia and reshape European positions in the conflict [3] Group 2: European Reactions - European countries have shown mixed responses to the U.S. tariff threat, with the Dutch Prime Minister expressing willingness to support U.S. aid to Ukraine, while Germany has delayed its energy sanctions against Russia [3] - Previous U.S. sanctions have already caused significant losses in the European automotive industry, amounting to over €12 billion, with German car inventories increasing by 47% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Russia's Countermeasures - In response to U.S. actions, Russia is diversifying its energy exports, aiming to increase oil exports to China to 800,000 barrels per day and restarting discounted oil exports to India, with daily volumes exceeding 1.2 million barrels [4][6] - Russia's military continues to demonstrate strong capabilities on the battlefield, despite facing challenges such as manpower shortages and economic pressures [4][6] Group 4: Economic Challenges for Russia - Russia's economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, which account for nearly 30% of its federal budget, and has seen a 45% drop in energy export revenues due to U.S. tariffs and previous sanctions [6] - The ruble has experienced significant depreciation, falling below 100 to 1 USD, and despite the Central Bank's efforts to lower interest rates to 20%, economic instability persists [6] Group 5: Global Implications - The tariff conflict between the U.S. and Russia has broader implications for global political and economic landscapes, with the U.S. facing potential loss of international credibility if it fails to compel Russia to comply [8] - Russia must navigate the dual challenges of manpower shortages and economic strain while maintaining domestic stability and its international stance [8]