Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market environment and the government's reluctance to implement significant stimulus policies, emphasizing a preference for a slow bull market rather than a rapid surge in stock prices [4][10][12]. Group 1 - The recent market expectations were dampened by the announcement that no short-term policy adjustments would be made, contrasting with previous anticipations of major stimulus similar to the "924" policy [4][6][9]. - The current market environment is significantly different from last year, with the index having risen nearly 500 points in two months, indicating a recovery in market sentiment that does not necessitate large policy interventions [7][9][10]. - The government aims to avoid a "crazy bull market" that could lead to a short-lived bull run, preferring instead to maintain a steady upward trend in the market [10][14][15]. Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) would remain unchanged, indicating a decision not to follow the U.S. in further interest rate cuts [16][17]. - The decision not to lower interest rates is attributed to limited room for reduction, as current deposit rates are around 1% and the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, which could jeopardize banks' profitability [19][20][21]. - Maintaining the LPR is also seen as a strategy to narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S., which has been attracting global capital due to higher interest rates [22][24][26]. Group 3 - The combination of not lowering the LPR and refraining from stimulus policies signals that the government is not in a hurry to release liquidity in the fourth quarter, despite market expectations for such measures [29][30]. - The current high market enthusiasm, even among retail investors, suggests that there is sufficient capital in the market, reducing the need for additional liquidity [33]. - The article anticipates a structural bull market in the A-share market, with certain sectors likely to attract investment while others may see capital outflows [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - A Wall Street strategist suggests that despite a recent market rally due to signals of interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, upcoming economic indicators, particularly the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment report, could lead the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to delay more accommodative monetary policy if they exceed expectations [1] Group 1 - The strategist maintains a target price for the S&P 500 index, predicting it will reach 6600 points by the end of 2025 and 7700 points by the end of 2026, with a subjective probability of 55% for this baseline scenario [1] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September as expected, a stronger "bull market" could push the S&P 500 to 7000 points before the end of 2025 [1] - By 2026, the driving force behind the bull market is expected to shift towards corporate earnings [1]