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黑天鹅事件出现!市场行情要转向了
大胡子说房· 2025-08-26 12:00
上周五全球资本市场出现了一个黑天鹅事件—— 美国非农就业数据公布,数据明显低于市场预期。 数据公布之后,美联储降息刺激经济的预期越来越强,市场也开始认识到老美经济被高估,全球市场马上遭遇了大跌。 然后很多人周末的时候就预测: 本周一,大A也会像其他国家的资本市场一样,遭遇暴击 但没想到的是,周一和周二两天,大A直接走出逆势行情,连续大涨了两天,指数重新站上3600点。 | 上证指数 | 3617.60 ▲ | +34.29 (+0.96%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 深证成指 | 11106.96 ▲ | +65.40 (+0.59%) | | 创业板指 | 2343.38 ▲ | +9.05 (+0.39%) | | 中证500 | 6303.23 ▲ | +41.50 (+0.66%) | 大A又红了 为什么在全球的股市都在遭遇暴击,唯独东大的股市独善其身? 我认为最主要的一个原因是: 利率差 而在利率差背后,其实也包含着一个潜在的财富机会。 美联储降息,意味着资本流向将会迎来一次大的转变,而这对东大有利。 为什么老美降息,对东大是利好? 这就涉及到一个更深入的问题了。 东大这几年为 ...
黑天鹅事件出现!市场行情要转向了
大胡子说房· 2025-08-05 13:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the Chinese stock market (A-shares) amidst global market declines following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could benefit the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3617.60, gaining 34.29 points (+0.96%), while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw increases [2]. - Despite global market turmoil, the Chinese market experienced a two-day rally, defying expectations of a downturn [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The article attributes the strength of the Chinese market to the potential shift in capital flows due to U.S. interest rate cuts, which could favor the Chinese economy [3]. - A significant factor in China's economic struggles is identified as the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the current U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and China's 5-year LPR at 3.5%, creating a roughly 1% difference [4]. - The disparity in deposit rates is even more pronounced, with U.S. 1-year fixed deposit rates between 4%-4.6% compared to China's 0.95%, leading to a deposit rate differential exceeding 4% [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, China's interest rates were higher than those in the U.S., particularly during periods of robust economic growth, which attracted significant capital inflows and fueled real estate market prosperity [10]. - The shift in interest rates began around April 2022, when Chinese rates fell below U.S. rates, coinciding with a downturn in the Chinese real estate market and broader economic challenges [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article posits that the current low valuation of Chinese capital markets is largely influenced by the ongoing U.S. interest rate hike cycle and the significant interest rate differential [15]. - A potential shift to a U.S. interest rate cut could lead to a recovery in Chinese asset prices, as seen during previous rate cut cycles [17].
粉笔(02469.HK)荣获“ESG卓越PR团队”,以AI+教育打造行业品牌价值标杆
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-09 01:37
Core Viewpoint - The company, Fenbi, has been awarded the "ESG Outstanding PR Team" at the "Gelonghui Mid-term Strategy Summit 2025," recognizing its efforts in enhancing brand value and public relations in the education sector [1][3][14]. Group 1: Brand Value and Recognition - The award acknowledges Fenbi's strategic communication and ability to shape its ESG brand influence, reflecting its commitment to building a responsible brand ecosystem [3]. - Fenbi's PR team's achievements highlight the company's growing brand value and its effectiveness in maintaining media relations [3][14]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Product Innovation - Fenbi has transitioned into the "Education 4.0" phase by integrating AI technology into its offerings, enhancing product innovation and user experience [5][10]. - The company has launched various products, including the AI-driven question-answering system, which has generated significant sales, contributing to its revenue growth [6][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Fenbi reported a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth [9]. - The company's gross margin improved from 52.0% in 2023 to 52.5% in 2024, while the net profit margin increased from 6.2% to 8.6% [9]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - Fenbi is building a "software + service + hardware" ecosystem, aiming to enhance user retention and create a robust competitive advantage [11][12]. - The company plans to invest in AI research and development at a growth rate of 30% annually, collaborating with top institutions to develop educational AI models [11][12].