出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：郝显 12月19日，三元股份发布公告拟将北京三元德宏房地产开发有限公司（简称"三元德宏"）10%股权转让 给北京市南郊农场有限公司。 近几年，三元股份不断"瘦身"，剥离亏损业务，回归主业。今年前三季公司净利润大幅增长124.84%， 盈利能力有所提升。不过营业收入仍在下滑，经销商数量在2024年底的基础上减少31%，大本营北京市 场也大幅下滑。 在行业低谷期，三元股份能否通过瘦身转型实现增长？ 三元股份剥离房地产资产 根据公告，本次交易定价为2685.15万元，对于三元股份来说，交易完成后将实现房地产业务的剥离， 进一步聚焦主业。 三元德宏成立于2005年，由三元股份与控股股东北京首农食品集团有限公司旗下公司共同出资成立。本 次交易前，三元股份持有其10%股权，首农食品集团全资子公司南郊农场持有其90%股权。 三元德宏主要从事房地产代建业务，目前有5个在手项目，包含南郊农场棚户区改造项目、三海子郊野 公园项目等。 艾莱发喜是其中比较成功的一次并购，该公司主营业务为冰淇淋，拥有"八喜"品牌。2024年冰淇淋业务 为三元股份贡献了22%的收入。不过2024年艾莱发喜营业收入和净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [1][10]. Core Views - The company has shown effective results from its slimming transformation strategy, integrating internal operations while also pursuing external collaborations [1][7]. - In 2024, the company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 614.1 billion yuan (down 15.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.67 billion yuan (down 88.2% year-on-year) [4][6]. - The company is focusing on restructuring its passenger vehicle segment and enhancing cooperation with Huawei, aiming to improve operational efficiency and product development [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a wholesale vehicle sales volume of 4.013 million units, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, while retail sales reached 4.639 million units, indicating a reduction of over 600,000 units in inventory [7]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to recover slightly to 641.3 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 7.49 billion yuan, reflecting a significant rebound from the previous year's performance [6][8]. Sales and Market Strategy - The company’s sales in the new energy vehicle segment grew by 9.9% in 2024, with a notable increase in sales of the Zhiji brand by 71.2% [7]. - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, with 1.038 million units sold abroad in 2024, despite a 14.1% decline year-on-year [7]. Operational Changes - The company has initiated a deep reform of its passenger vehicle segment, establishing a "large passenger vehicle segment" to enhance management and operational efficiency [8]. - A significant partnership with Huawei has been established, leading to the launch of a new brand, Shangjie, which will utilize Huawei's smart vehicle technology [8]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 7.49 billion yuan and 10.22 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 12.24 billion yuan [8]. - The company's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E ratio of 25.1 for 2025, suggesting a potential for growth as the company navigates its transformation [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" with a current stock price of 16.24 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has shown effective results from its slimming transformation, integrating internally while also collaborating externally [7][8]. - In 2024, the company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 614.07 billion CNY (down 15.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.67 billion CNY (down 88.2% year-on-year) [4]. - The company is expected to gradually see the effects of its transformation strategy, particularly in its self-owned vehicle segment, with a projected net profit of 7.49 billion CNY in 2025 [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a wholesale vehicle sales volume of 4.013 million units (down 20.1% year-on-year) and a retail sales volume of 4.639 million units [7]. - The company’s 2025 Q1 revenue was 137.68 billion CNY (down 0.9% year-on-year), with a net profit of 3.02 billion CNY (up 11.4% year-on-year) [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 641.31 billion CNY, with a net profit forecast of 7.49 billion CNY [6]. Market and Sales Insights - The company’s sales in the new energy vehicle segment reached 1.234 million units in 2024, marking a 9.9% increase year-on-year [7]. - The company has faced challenges in its overseas market, with a 14.1% decline in overseas sales, but has implemented strategies to mitigate these impacts [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has restructured its passenger vehicle segment and strengthened its collaboration with Huawei, launching a new brand "Shangjie" [8]. - The company plans to invest 6 billion CNY in the new brand, which will utilize Huawei's technology and is expected to launch its first model in the second half of 2025 [8]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 9.4% in 2024, with a net margin of 0.3% [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 25.1 in 2025, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [6].