Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has been declining, leading to a corresponding drop in the stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), which is approaching the 1400 yuan mark [1][2]. Price Movement - As of June 16, Kweichow Moutai's stock price reached a low of 1401.18 yuan per share, marking a significant drop from over 1600 yuan just a month prior, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 250 billion yuan [1][2]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by over 100 yuan within the month, with the retail price for a 500ml bottle dropping from 2170 yuan to 1960 yuan, reflecting a decline of 10.71% [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to the seasonal drop in liquor consumption post-Spring Festival, which typically affects premium liquor prices [10]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly around the "6·18" mid-year sales, have further pressured the prices of Feitian Moutai, as aggressive discounting strategies impact the market [10]. Consumer Behavior - Changes in consumer demographics, particularly the rise of younger consumers, are influencing the demand for high-end liquor, leading to a natural price correction for Moutai [11]. Dealer Strategies - Moutai distributors are actively seeking to stabilize prices through measures such as limiting supply to certain channels and increasing market surveillance to enforce compliance [8]. Analyst Outlook - Despite the recent price declines, analysts remain optimistic about Kweichow Moutai, with multiple brokerages maintaining "buy" or "strong buy" ratings and setting target prices significantly above the current market price, indicating potential upside [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The market circulation price of Feitian Moutai has recently fallen below 2000 yuan per bottle, raising concerns about its implications for Kweichow Moutai and the future price trend of Feitian Moutai [1][3][10]. Price Trends - As of June 11, the price of Feitian Moutai was reported at 1990 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, and further declined to 1980 yuan on June 12 [3][8]. - The price has been on a downward trend, dropping from 2090 yuan per bottle a month ago and from around 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating a decline of approximately 10% [3][4]. - In early 2024, the price was as high as 2600-2700 yuan per bottle before starting to decrease [3]. Other Moutai Products - Other Moutai products are also experiencing price declines. For instance, Moutai 15 years was priced at 4570 yuan per bottle on June 11, down from 4750 yuan a month prior [4]. - Various Moutai products, including Moutai Prince and Moutai Zodiac, have seen significant price drops, with Moutai Prince falling from a peak of 4500 yuan to around 2580 yuan [7]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - The price drop is attributed to several factors, including e-commerce platforms offering low-priced Feitian Moutai during promotional events like "6·18," with prices as low as 1499 yuan [8][9]. - The recent "ban on alcohol" policy, which restricts high-end alcohol consumption in official settings, has also contributed to reduced demand for premium products like Feitian Moutai [8][9]. - The current period is traditionally a low season for liquor consumption, further exacerbating the price decline [9]. Future Price Outlook - The breach of the 2000 yuan mark for Feitian Moutai could signal a shift towards its suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, potentially losing its premium status [10]. - Analysts predict that the overall market for high-end liquor will continue to face challenges, with expectations of further price declines in the coming months due to high inventory and reduced demand [10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, nearing the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle, with a decline of over 10% compared to the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6][7]. Price Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai reached 2020 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 2080 yuan for boxed bottles [2]. - The retail price in some Beijing stores is around 2100-2300 yuan per bottle, with indications that prices may rise slightly after mid-July due to seasonal demand [2]. - The recovery price for loose bottles has fallen below 2000 yuan, reaching 1970 yuan, marking a historical low [6]. Market Dynamics - The decline in prices is attributed to the end of the peak consumption season around the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a seasonal downturn in white liquor sales [6][7]. - E-commerce promotions, particularly during the "6·18" sales event, have further pressured prices, with some platforms offering Moutai at prices as low as 1499 yuan [7][8]. Supply Chain and Distribution - Moutai has increased the distribution of non-standard products, which has affected the demand for Feitian Moutai, contributing to the price drop [8]. - The company has implemented measures to control supply, including halting direct sales of 500ml Feitian Moutai and freezing a portion of inventory to stabilize prices [8][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai plans to adjust its product structure across various sales channels to enhance consumer reach and improve operational capabilities [9]. - The company aims to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and preferences by exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional gifting and dining occasions [9].