Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the remaining brands in the sauce liquor sector will thrive, while mass-market products are expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival [2][8]. - The dairy sector is showing signs of improvement, with a potential rebound in raw milk prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, which could lead to increased demand for processed dairy products [6]. - The beverage and snack categories are experiencing sustained growth, with specific segments like energy drinks and konjac snacks showing remarkable sales increases despite overall declines in the snack market [6]. - The report highlights a significant shift in the sauce liquor industry, where pricing strategies are becoming more pragmatic, with a new growth level emerging around the 200 yuan price point as lower-tier brands face market exit pressures [6][8]. - The report suggests that leading liquor companies should maintain operational stability during this industry downturn, focusing on balanced investments in base liquor to prepare for future market recovery [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 44,935.30 billion yuan, representing 3.54% of the market [3]. - The circulating market value stands at 43,859.19 billion yuan, accounting for 4.28% of the total market [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 1.3%, with a relative performance decline of 2.2% compared to the benchmark [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the industry has seen a relative performance decline of 25.2% [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - Dairy products are expected to benefit from a favorable pricing environment and improved supply dynamics, with major companies actively preparing for the Spring Festival [6]. - The beverage sector is witnessing growth in specific categories, with leading brands launching targeted marketing campaigns for the holiday season [6]. - The sauce liquor market is undergoing a consolidation phase, with a focus on brand strength and market share recovery among leading companies [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing an unprecedented deep adjustment in 2025, characterized by tightening policies, weakened consumption, price inversion, and high inventory levels, leading to collective anxiety within the industry. However, Kweichow Moutai is boldly advancing its strategy of transforming towards the consumer end (C-end) in a manner that disrupts traditional industry logic [3][4]. Industry Survival System - The prosperity of the liquor industry over the past two decades has largely relied on a complex "non-consumer-oriented" system, where sales are driven by channels rather than direct consumer engagement. The pricing is controlled by intermediaries, and the focus has shifted to financial speculation rather than genuine consumption needs [4][5]. - The industry has seen a proliferation of story-based marketing, emphasizing historical and cultural narratives over actual product quality and contemporary taste preferences [4]. Moutai's Strategic Shift - Kweichow Moutai is dismantling its traditional business model by enhancing its direct sales through the "i Moutai" digital platform, increasing its direct sales ratio to over 50% by 2025, significantly higher than the industry average [6][9]. - The company recognizes that the previous model of relying on inventory pressure for growth is unsustainable, especially as dealer inventory turnover exceeds 200 days and price inversions spread [9]. Consumer Engagement and Market Trends - Younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, exhibit low brand loyalty and prioritize experience, transparency, and social value over traditional narratives. They are less likely to be swayed by historical claims and more inclined to appreciate quality and shareable experiences [9][11]. - Moutai's shift towards the C-end is not merely about e-commerce or live streaming; it involves a comprehensive restructuring of the value chain, focusing on product transparency, reasonable pricing, experiential marketing, and direct consumer feedback [11][12]. Industry Impact and Future Outlook - Moutai's actions are seen as a significant disruption in the liquor industry, challenging companies that rely on storytelling and stock price manipulation. It compels competitors to reconsider their value propositions beyond capital operations [12][14]. - The future of the liquor industry will favor those who understand consumers rather than those who excel at marketing. Moutai's transformation signifies a return to creating genuine value rather than merely manufacturing scarcity [14].

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-05 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251230：2026 年财政可能有两个超预期 尽管市场普遍预期 2026 年财政的边际增量资金可能放缓，但财政支出仍 有可能超预期。超预期主要来自两个方向：一是物价回升将带来的财政收 入增量；二是 2025 年有较多的财政"余粮"留到下年使用。具体而言， 若 PPI 同比增速回升 1.8 个点（-2.4%→-0.6%），可能带来约 2600 亿元的 额外税收收入，这一效果相当于赤字率提高 0.2 个点（即 4.0%→4.2%）； 同时，今年支出偏慢，财政"余粮"可能超 5000 亿。这两项合计 7600 亿， 可额外提升一般公共预算支出增速约 2.6 个百分点，从而在预算框架内实 现超预期的支出扩张。 风险提示：（1）房地产和土地市场变化，对财政 影响较大，如果未来房地产市场出现趋势性变化，财政收支变化也较大； （2）物价回升幅度，以及物价回升对财政的影响，是基于一定逻辑下的 估算，结果存在一定风险；（3）如果 12 月突击花钱超预期，最终剩下的 财政余粮也有可能低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The konjac snack market is currently a standout growth category within the snack market, achieving a 17.45% year-on-year growth during the MAT202511 period (December 2024 to November 2025) despite an overall decline in the snack market [2][4][17] - The market share of the top three groups (CR3) in the konjac snack industry increased from 67% to 75%, indicating a significant concentration trend [4][26][28] - The konjac snack category is expected to continue expanding, with the number of SKUs increasing by 53% and the number of participating groups growing by 41% from December 2023 to November 2025 [26][33] Summary by Sections Konjac Snack Market Dynamics - The konjac snack category has shown remarkable growth, with a 17.45% year-on-year increase during the MAT202511 period, contrasting with an 11.94% decline in overall snack sales [2][17] - The spicy flavor remains the most stable and dominant in the konjac snack category, maintaining over 35% market share [18] - The market share of traditional snacks like spicy strips is declining, while konjac snacks are gaining traction, with their market share surpassing 2% for the first time in May 2025 [17][18] Supply and Market Concentration - The supply side of the konjac snack category is expanding, with SKU numbers rising from 2,718 to 4,158, and brand numbers increasing from 859 to 1,261 [26] - The CR3 group's market share has increased significantly, indicating a trend towards market concentration, while the CR10 group now holds 84.3% of the market [26][28] Competitive Landscape - Major brands like Weilong and Yanjin are adapting their strategies, with Yanjin's sub-brand "Big Demon King" rapidly gaining market share, while Weilon's sub-brand "Little Witch" has seen a decline [31][33] - The konjac snack market is characterized by strong competition, with both established and emerging brands vying for market share, highlighting its attractiveness and growth potential [33]

茅台"挥刀自宫"？深度剖析1499元飞天线上化的战略智慧 茅台集团近期宣布明年将在"i茅台"平台上线1499元飞天茅台，引发了业界激烈争论。赞扬者称此为茅台市场化转型的里程碑，批评者则喻其为"挥刀自 宫"式的自毁长城。在这背后，究竟是一场战略误判，还是一次深思熟虑的高维布局？ 茅台困境：硬通货神话与市场现实 茅台近年的发展呈现出矛盾的双重性：一方面，飞天茅台长期维持着"硬通货"地位，成为兼具饮用价值、投资价值和社交价值的特殊商品；另一方面，过 度金融化已使茅台远离消费本质，价格倒挂现象频现，二级市场价格波动剧烈，终端消费者难以按官方指导价购买产品。 这种矛盾状态不可持续。茅台管理层清醒认识到，当品牌价值过度依赖金融属性，而非产品本身时，其根基将变得脆弱。今年茅台股价的波动、市场对茅 台增长可持续性的质疑，都是这一矛盾的直接反映。 渠道革命：打破扭曲的利益链 茅台此次将核心产品以官方指导价上线自有平台，本质是对扭曲分销体系的"刮骨疗毒"。长期以来，飞天茅台的流通体系形成了一条复杂而隐蔽的利益 链：经销商囤货惜售、黄牛炒作哄抬、消费者溢价购买。这不仅损害了品牌形象，也积累了市场风险。 "i茅台"的推出并非一时兴起 ...

聚焦渠道韧性，为渠道减负、增活力，精准匹配市场多元需求。1）茅台酒：取消高附加值产品的分销 政策，以2025 年正常合同为基础，对陈年酒渠道商取消配比制。2）酱香酒：将推出系列减负支持政 策，旨在推动渠道商轻装上阵，全力投身市场攻坚。运用"5+5"数据看板（围绕GDP、人口等指标）， 科学测算各区域市场容量，实现动态、精准投入。健全渠道商优胜劣汰机制，通过多维评估体系激励创 新。优秀的经销商将获得经营精品、陈年等产品的资格，筑牢厂商共赢根基。 聚焦模式优化，构建多元化销售网络，提升消费者触达的便捷性与体验感。通过构建 "自售+经销+代售 +寄售"全覆盖的销售模式组合，精准定位各自功能，巩固优势，探索新路，以激活渠道综合效能，全 面提升消费者购买的便利性与满意度。同时i 茅台平台2026 年将上架53 度500ml 飞天茅台酒等产品，夯 实公司以消费者为中心，以市场需求为导向。 聚焦协同联动，为市场化转型提供坚实支撑，形成执行合力。1）费用支持：2026 年将保持市场费用支 持力度稳定，助力市场活动开展。2）文化赋能：持续打造茅台文化"IP"，强化品牌内涵。3）服务提 升：做精"四师一官"（文化宣讲师、品饮师、 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 2026 加速营销转型，多元渠道构建更进一步 2025 年 12 月 31 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 174,144 | 182,883 | 186,529 | 191,818 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 5.02 | 1.99 | 2.84 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 86,228 | 90,154 | 91,036 | 92,882 | | 同比（%） | 19.16 | 15.38 | 4.55 | 0.98 | 2.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 59.68 | 68.86 | 71.99 | 72.70 | 74.17 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.29 | 20.18 | 19.30 | 19.12 | 18.74 ...

Group 1 - Anta Group is increasing its investment in the upcoming 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, providing equipment support for 13 Chinese national teams [1] - Anta's brands, including FILA and Descente, are collaborating with various national teams, focusing on developing professional competition and training gear [1] - The new equipment features significant technological advancements, such as a cutting-edge anti-cutting material developed in collaboration with academic institutions [1] Group 2 - The ice and snow sports market is currently not mainstream due to seasonal factors, which raises questions about the economic viability of Anta's investments in this sector [2][3] - Despite the challenges, the economic ecosystem around ice and snow events is forming, with technology from these events being integrated into consumer products [4] - The down jacket market in China has seen substantial growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.84% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a competitive advantage for sports brands like Anta [5] Group 3 - As ice and snow sports gain popularity, the market space is expected to grow, allowing Anta to launch consumer products based on national team technology [6] - This strategy highlights Anta's focus on cost optimization and value for consumers, enhancing its marketing approach [7]

Group 1 - BYD has denied rumors about launching flying cars, stating that there are no such plans or arrangements [2] - Zhaomi Technology has achieved a compound annual growth rate of over 100% for six consecutive years, with plans to reward all employees with 1 gram of gold as a year-end bonus [2] Group 2 - TSMC's 2nm technology is set to begin mass production in Q4 2025, utilizing the first-generation nanosheet transistor technology for improved performance and power efficiency [3] - The Chinese government plans to relax household registration restrictions outside of a few major cities to facilitate the integration of rural populations into urban areas [3] Group 3 - The China Passenger Car Association predicts a positive start for the car market in January 2026, driven by early implementation of national subsidies and the impact of the delayed Spring Festival [4] Group 4 - Moutai's sales of the Moutai 1935 product are expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025, while Moutai Prince liquor sales are projected to surpass 6 billion yuan [6] - NIO has delivered its 40,000th ES8 vehicle, achieving this milestone in just 100 days since deliveries began [7] Group 5 - Seven Fresh Kitchen has launched a nationwide partner recruitment plan, aiming to cover all first- and second-tier cities by 2026 [9] - The first fully compliant unmanned logistics vehicle is set to be launched in early 2026 [9] Group 6 - Amazon has decided to suspend its drone delivery plans in Italy due to broader commercial regulatory issues, despite progress with aviation regulators [10] - Waymo is testing its autonomous taxis in London, showcasing its Jaguar I-Pace electric vehicles on the streets [11] Group 7 - South Korea's exports are projected to reach a record high of over $700 billion in 2025 [12] - Orion, a South Korean food giant, plans to invest 240 billion won (approximately $167 million) to expand its production facilities in Russia by 2027 [13] Group 8 - New York City's subway system will transition to a contactless payment system starting January 1, 2026, discontinuing the sale and recharge of the old subway cards [14][15]

来源：光大证券微资讯 热点聚焦 HOT 1、受大宗商品巨幅波动引发的紧张情绪推动，隔夜，美股三大指数均小幅收跌，道指跌0.51%，纳指 跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.35%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.67%。由于乌克兰停火谈判进展有限，国 际油价涨超2%。WTI原油期货收涨2.36%，报58.08美元/桶。布油期货结算价收涨2.14%，报61.94美元/ 桶。 2、隔夜，国际贵金属大幅收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌4.45%，报4350.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货跌 7.2%，报71.64美元/盎司。现货白银大跌近9%，现货钯金跌超15%，现货铂金跌超14%。30日7:05，现 货钯金跌破1600美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。现货铂金跌幅扩大至2%，最低报2049.38美元/盎司。据报 道，大量交易员正在从创纪录涨势中获利了结，加剧了贵金属下跌势头。 5、12月29日晚间，天箭科技发布重大风险提示公告：因相关军品价格调整，公司预计2025年度扣非归 母净利润将为负值，且扣除后营业收入低于3亿元。公司股票可能被实施退市风险警示，将冠 以"*ST"字样。11月以来，公司已收获4个涨停板，年内涨幅超60%。同日， ...