新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 （来源：华夏酒报） 2025年，白酒行业正经历一场前所未有的深度调整。政策收紧、消费减弱、价格倒挂、库存高企······在多重叠加压力之下，整个行业陷入集体焦虑。然 而，在这场风暴中，贵州茅台却以一种近乎"反传统"的姿态，坚定推进其"向C端（消费者）转型"的战略。 这场颠覆性的革命，打破了白酒行业长期以来的生存逻辑，对"渠道驱动"模式进行了调整。 白酒行业的生存体系 金融属性炒作：高端白酒被包装成"硬通货""理财产品"，其真实饮用需求反而退居其次。 故事营销泛滥：窖池年限、非遗工艺、历史典故被无限放大，但产品是否真正好喝、是否符合当代口感，却少有人追问。 并购造梦：如行业内的"1元并购"案例所示，不少企业靠"重组预期"拉抬股价，而非实际经营改善。 这套逻辑的核心，是让信息在消费者与产品之间层层过滤、增值等，最终形成一个脱离真实消费场景的现象。 茅台为何砸碎"金饭碗"? 近年来，茅台持续推进"i茅台"数字平台建设，强化直营比例，严控黄牛炒酒，推动"开瓶率"考核，甚至试点"空瓶回收"以验证真实消费。2025年，其直销 占比已超50%，远高于行业平均水平。 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-05 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251230：2026 年财政可能有两个超预期 尽管市场普遍预期 2026 年财政的边际增量资金可能放缓，但财政支出仍 有可能超预期。超预期主要来自两个方向：一是物价回升将带来的财政收 入增量；二是 2025 年有较多的财政"余粮"留到下年使用。具体而言， 若 PPI 同比增速回升 1.8 个点（-2.4%→-0.6%），可能带来约 2600 亿元的 额外税收收入，这一效果相当于赤字率提高 0.2 个点（即 4.0%→4.2%）； 同时，今年支出偏慢，财政"余粮"可能超 5000 亿。这两项合计 7600 亿， 可额外提升一般公共预算支出增速约 2.6 个百分点，从而在预算框架内实 现超预期的支出扩张。 风险提示：（1）房地产和土地市场变化，对财政 影响较大，如果未来房地产市场出现趋势性变化，财政收支变化也较大； （2）物价回升幅度，以及物价回升对财政的影响，是基于一定逻辑下的 估算，结果存在一定风险；（3）如果 12 月突击花钱超预期，最终剩下的 财政余粮也有可能低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The konjac snack market is currently a standout growth category within the snack market, achieving a 17.45% year-on-year growth during the MAT202511 period (December 2024 to November 2025) despite an overall decline in the snack market [2][4][17] - The market share of the top three groups (CR3) in the konjac snack industry increased from 67% to 75%, indicating a significant concentration trend [4][26][28] - The konjac snack category is expected to continue expanding, with the number of SKUs increasing by 53% and the number of participating groups growing by 41% from December 2023 to November 2025 [26][33] Summary by Sections Konjac Snack Market Dynamics - The konjac snack category has shown remarkable growth, with a 17.45% year-on-year increase during the MAT202511 period, contrasting with an 11.94% decline in overall snack sales [2][17] - The spicy flavor remains the most stable and dominant in the konjac snack category, maintaining over 35% market share [18] - The market share of traditional snacks like spicy strips is declining, while konjac snacks are gaining traction, with their market share surpassing 2% for the first time in May 2025 [17][18] Supply and Market Concentration - The supply side of the konjac snack category is expanding, with SKU numbers rising from 2,718 to 4,158, and brand numbers increasing from 859 to 1,261 [26] - The CR3 group's market share has increased significantly, indicating a trend towards market concentration, while the CR10 group now holds 84.3% of the market [26][28] Competitive Landscape - Major brands like Weilong and Yanjin are adapting their strategies, with Yanjin's sub-brand "Big Demon King" rapidly gaining market share, while Weilon's sub-brand "Little Witch" has seen a decline [31][33] - The konjac snack market is characterized by strong competition, with both established and emerging brands vying for market share, highlighting its attractiveness and growth potential [33]

茅台"挥刀自宫"？深度剖析1499元飞天线上化的战略智慧 茅台集团近期宣布明年将在"i茅台"平台上线1499元飞天茅台，引发了业界激烈争论。赞扬者称此为茅台市场化转型的里程碑，批评者则喻其为"挥刀自 宫"式的自毁长城。在这背后，究竟是一场战略误判，还是一次深思熟虑的高维布局？ 茅台困境：硬通货神话与市场现实 茅台近年的发展呈现出矛盾的双重性：一方面，飞天茅台长期维持着"硬通货"地位，成为兼具饮用价值、投资价值和社交价值的特殊商品；另一方面，过 度金融化已使茅台远离消费本质，价格倒挂现象频现，二级市场价格波动剧烈，终端消费者难以按官方指导价购买产品。 这种矛盾状态不可持续。茅台管理层清醒认识到，当品牌价值过度依赖金融属性，而非产品本身时，其根基将变得脆弱。今年茅台股价的波动、市场对茅 台增长可持续性的质疑，都是这一矛盾的直接反映。 渠道革命：打破扭曲的利益链 茅台此次将核心产品以官方指导价上线自有平台，本质是对扭曲分销体系的"刮骨疗毒"。长期以来，飞天茅台的流通体系形成了一条复杂而隐蔽的利益 链：经销商囤货惜售、黄牛炒作哄抬、消费者溢价购买。这不仅损害了品牌形象，也积累了市场风险。 "i茅台"的推出并非一时兴起 ...

聚焦渠道韧性，为渠道减负、增活力，精准匹配市场多元需求。1）茅台酒：取消高附加值产品的分销 政策，以2025 年正常合同为基础，对陈年酒渠道商取消配比制。2）酱香酒：将推出系列减负支持政 策，旨在推动渠道商轻装上阵，全力投身市场攻坚。运用"5+5"数据看板（围绕GDP、人口等指标）， 科学测算各区域市场容量，实现动态、精准投入。健全渠道商优胜劣汰机制，通过多维评估体系激励创 新。优秀的经销商将获得经营精品、陈年等产品的资格，筑牢厂商共赢根基。 聚焦模式优化，构建多元化销售网络，提升消费者触达的便捷性与体验感。通过构建 "自售+经销+代售 +寄售"全覆盖的销售模式组合，精准定位各自功能，巩固优势，探索新路，以激活渠道综合效能，全 面提升消费者购买的便利性与满意度。同时i 茅台平台2026 年将上架53 度500ml 飞天茅台酒等产品，夯 实公司以消费者为中心，以市场需求为导向。 聚焦协同联动，为市场化转型提供坚实支撑，形成执行合力。1）费用支持：2026 年将保持市场费用支 持力度稳定，助力市场活动开展。2）文化赋能：持续打造茅台文化"IP"，强化品牌内涵。3）服务提 升：做精"四师一官"（文化宣讲师、品饮师、 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 2026 加速营销转型，多元渠道构建更进一步 2025 年 12 月 31 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 174,144 | 182,883 | 186,529 | 191,818 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 5.02 | 1.99 | 2.84 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 86,228 | 90,154 | 91,036 | 92,882 | | 同比（%） | 19.16 | 15.38 | 4.55 | 0.98 | 2.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 59.68 | 68.86 | 71.99 | 72.70 | 74.17 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 23.29 | 20.18 | 19.30 | 19.12 | 18.74 ...

Group 1 - Anta Group is increasing its investment in the upcoming 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, providing equipment support for 13 Chinese national teams [1] - Anta's brands, including FILA and Descente, are collaborating with various national teams, focusing on developing professional competition and training gear [1] - The new equipment features significant technological advancements, such as a cutting-edge anti-cutting material developed in collaboration with academic institutions [1] Group 2 - The ice and snow sports market is currently not mainstream due to seasonal factors, which raises questions about the economic viability of Anta's investments in this sector [2][3] - Despite the challenges, the economic ecosystem around ice and snow events is forming, with technology from these events being integrated into consumer products [4] - The down jacket market in China has seen substantial growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.84% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a competitive advantage for sports brands like Anta [5] Group 3 - As ice and snow sports gain popularity, the market space is expected to grow, allowing Anta to launch consumer products based on national team technology [6] - This strategy highlights Anta's focus on cost optimization and value for consumers, enhancing its marketing approach [7]

Group 1 - BYD has denied rumors about launching flying cars, stating that there are no such plans or arrangements [2] - Zhaomi Technology has achieved a compound annual growth rate of over 100% for six consecutive years, with plans to reward all employees with 1 gram of gold as a year-end bonus [2] Group 2 - TSMC's 2nm technology is set to begin mass production in Q4 2025, utilizing the first-generation nanosheet transistor technology for improved performance and power efficiency [3] - The Chinese government plans to relax household registration restrictions outside of a few major cities to facilitate the integration of rural populations into urban areas [3] Group 3 - The China Passenger Car Association predicts a positive start for the car market in January 2026, driven by early implementation of national subsidies and the impact of the delayed Spring Festival [4] Group 4 - Moutai's sales of the Moutai 1935 product are expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025, while Moutai Prince liquor sales are projected to surpass 6 billion yuan [6] - NIO has delivered its 40,000th ES8 vehicle, achieving this milestone in just 100 days since deliveries began [7] Group 5 - Seven Fresh Kitchen has launched a nationwide partner recruitment plan, aiming to cover all first- and second-tier cities by 2026 [9] - The first fully compliant unmanned logistics vehicle is set to be launched in early 2026 [9] Group 6 - Amazon has decided to suspend its drone delivery plans in Italy due to broader commercial regulatory issues, despite progress with aviation regulators [10] - Waymo is testing its autonomous taxis in London, showcasing its Jaguar I-Pace electric vehicles on the streets [11] Group 7 - South Korea's exports are projected to reach a record high of over $700 billion in 2025 [12] - Orion, a South Korean food giant, plans to invest 240 billion won (approximately $167 million) to expand its production facilities in Russia by 2027 [13] Group 8 - New York City's subway system will transition to a contactless payment system starting January 1, 2026, discontinuing the sale and recharge of the old subway cards [14][15]

来源：光大证券微资讯 热点聚焦 HOT 1、受大宗商品巨幅波动引发的紧张情绪推动，隔夜，美股三大指数均小幅收跌，道指跌0.51%，纳指 跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.35%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.67%。由于乌克兰停火谈判进展有限，国 际油价涨超2%。WTI原油期货收涨2.36%，报58.08美元/桶。布油期货结算价收涨2.14%，报61.94美元/ 桶。 2、隔夜，国际贵金属大幅收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌4.45%，报4350.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货跌 7.2%，报71.64美元/盎司。现货白银大跌近9%，现货钯金跌超15%，现货铂金跌超14%。30日7:05，现 货钯金跌破1600美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。现货铂金跌幅扩大至2%，最低报2049.38美元/盎司。据报 道，大量交易员正在从创纪录涨势中获利了结，加剧了贵金属下跌势头。 5、12月29日晚间，天箭科技发布重大风险提示公告：因相关军品价格调整，公司预计2025年度扣非归 母净利润将为负值，且扣除后营业收入低于3亿元。公司股票可能被实施退市风险警示，将冠 以"*ST"字样。11月以来，公司已收获4个涨停板，年内涨幅超60%。同日， ...

今日关注 新股上市：双欣环保（深）、誉帆科技（深）、强一股份（科）。 国投白银LOF：将于2025年12月30日开市起至当日10:30停牌 2025中国绿氢产业大会将于12月30日在北京举行 "Physical AI第一股"五一视界12月30日在港交所挂牌上市 可控核聚变创新联合体第二届锦江论坛将于12月30日举办 今日有593亿元7天期逆回购到期 美国12月19日当周EIA天然气库存变动(亿立方英尺) 上期所：12月30日收盘起，黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，同时调整保证金比例 经济数据：美国12月芝加哥PMI 隔夜市场 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%报48461.93点，标普500指数跌0.35%报6905.74点，纳指跌0.5%报 23474.35点。 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货收跌 7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。盘中现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%。 美油主力合约收涨1.92%，报57.83美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨1.66%，报61.24美元/桶。 伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME期铅涨 ...