申万宏源发布研报称，结合2025中秋国庆白酒渠道反馈，预计2025中秋国庆白酒行业整体需求同比下降 30~20%，库存增加10-20%(全年任务量)，批价全面下行。从消费场景看，宴席表现低于预期，有所下 降，礼品需求下降，政商务场景环比改善但同比仍有明显缺口。展望明年春节，一方面，当前渠道库存 仍然较高，需要时间消化，另一方面，消费场景仍然在恢复过程中，需求仍然较弱，且25年春节基数较 高，预计26年春节动销仍有较大压力。报表端看，25Q2部分酒企报表开始释放压力，预计25Q3报表端 全面释放压力，可能会持续至26Q1。 地产酒：古井：合肥区域反馈，预计回款比例85%，回款金额同比持平，预计动销整体下滑10%-15%， 批价较年初皆有一定程度下滑，库存占全年任务50%以上。迎驾贡酒（603198）：合肥区域反馈，预计 动销下滑20%，渠道利润与古井同价位单品有所收窄。库存约2个月。洋河：预计回款比例85%，预计 动销同比下滑30%~20%，库存3~4个月，终端库存同比减少。今世缘（603369）：预计回款比例85%， 预计动销同比下滑30%~20%，库存3~4个月，终端库存同比增加，批价环比下滑。 投资建议 ...

Group 1 - The traditional liquor industry is under pressure, affecting market optimism for the recovery of the liquor sector, with the Wind liquor index declining by 2.64% this week [1] - Only Kuozi Jiao had a slight rebound of 0.32% this week, while other liquor stocks, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu, saw declines exceeding 5% [1] - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of bottoming out, with expectations for gradual improvement in the fundamentals by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The beer, wine, and yellow wine sectors also experienced poor performance this week, with only a few companies like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer showing gains [2] - Yingjia Gongjiu has faced a significant decline in both performance and stock price, with a year-to-date drop of 17.86% as of September 19 [2] - Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, and net profit fell by 18.19% [2][3] Group 3 - The mid-to-high-end products of Yingjia Gongjiu saw a revenue decline of approximately 14%, while ordinary liquor revenue plummeted by 32.47% [3] - The company is facing challenges due to the underperformance of mid-to-low-end products, weak expansion outside Anhui province, and inventory pressure [3] - There is potential for recovery in the second half of the year if sales improve during the peak season, alongside industry recovery expectations [3]