Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for the liquor industry is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with inventory increasing by 10-20% and wholesale prices declining across the board [1] Industry Summary - The banquet consumption scenario is underperforming, with a decrease in demand for gifts, while the government and business sectors show a month-on-month improvement but still have a significant year-on-year gap [1] - High channel inventory levels will require time to digest, and the recovery of consumption scenarios remains weak, leading to pressure on sales during the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Brand Performance - **Moutai**: Normal repayment progress from distributors, with a slight decline in sales expected. The price for scattered bottles is around 1780 yuan, and for whole boxes, it is about 1835 yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to before the holiday [2] - **Wuliangye**: Expected repayment ratio of about 70%, with a sales decline of approximately 15%. The current price for Wuliangye is around 810-830 yuan, with inventory levels stable year-on-year [2] - **Guojiao 1573**: Anticipated repayment ratio of 60-70%, with a sales decline of 20-30%. The price for low-alcohol Guojiao 1573 is around 630 yuan, while high-alcohol is priced at 820-830 yuan [2] - **Fenjiu**: Expected repayment progress of 70-80%, with stable sales for glass Fenjiu. The price for Qinghua Fenjiu is around 330-360 yuan [3] - **Real Estate Liquor**: Brands like Gujing and Yingjia are experiencing sales declines of 10-20% and 20%, respectively, with significant inventory levels [3] Investment Recommendations - The industry fundamentals need to stabilize, and the speed of channel clearing is expected to be faster than that of financial report clearing. Patience is advised for sector opportunities [4] - High dividend yield stocks from leading companies are seen as a long-term investment value, with potential short-term benefits from market liquidity and sector rotation [4] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with attention to Wuliangye, Jiusiyuan, and Yingjia [4]

Group 1 - The traditional liquor industry is under pressure, affecting market optimism for the recovery of the liquor sector, with the Wind liquor index declining by 2.64% this week [1] - Only Kuozi Jiao had a slight rebound of 0.32% this week, while other liquor stocks, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu, saw declines exceeding 5% [1] - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of bottoming out, with expectations for gradual improvement in the fundamentals by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The beer, wine, and yellow wine sectors also experienced poor performance this week, with only a few companies like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer showing gains [2] - Yingjia Gongjiu has faced a significant decline in both performance and stock price, with a year-to-date drop of 17.86% as of September 19 [2] - Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, and net profit fell by 18.19% [2][3] Group 3 - The mid-to-high-end products of Yingjia Gongjiu saw a revenue decline of approximately 14%, while ordinary liquor revenue plummeted by 32.47% [3] - The company is facing challenges due to the underperformance of mid-to-low-end products, weak expansion outside Anhui province, and inventory pressure [3] - There is potential for recovery in the second half of the year if sales improve during the peak season, alongside industry recovery expectations [3]