证券研究报告|公司深度研究报告 [Table_at2026年03月04日 全面战略转型，强体系塑造强竞争力 ———金徽酒发展现状及投资价值讨论 评级： 买入 分析师：寇星 分析师：郭辉 SAC NO：S1120520040004 SAC NO：S1120524120002 分析师：沈嘉雯 分析师：王厚 SAC NO：S1120524070001 SAC NO：S1120525070002 -8% 2% 11% 20% 30% 39% 2025/03 2025/06 2025/09 2025/12 2026/03 相对股价 % 金徽酒 沪深300 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 金徽酒有望复制地产酒龙头演变趋势，成就自身绝对省 内优势地位 1 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 ① 省内大众宴席场景、入门级商务场景引领消费升级：公司近年来积极引导省内100-150元价位带大众宴席、入门级商务消费用酒向200-300元升级，包 括世纪金徽星级系列中的四星向红白五星升级，柔和系列中的H3向H6升级，我们认为公司在四星、H3两款产品上具有坚实、广阔的消费基础，通过公 司大力开展各类消费者活动，如红五星赠婚车、H ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Moutai prices reflects a complex interplay of market speculation, upcoming events, and supply constraints, indicating a potential shift in the industry dynamics as traditional consumption patterns evolve [2][4][6]. Price Movements - On December 24, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Feitian Moutai rose to 1600 RMB per bottle, an increase of 40 RMB from the previous day, while the 24-year variant reached 1630 RMB, up by 30 RMB [2][3]. - The price of the "Snake Moutai" jumped from 1770 RMB to 2000 RMB in a single day, marking a 13% increase, which has surprised many in the market [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations are attributed to the upcoming distributor conference on December 28, where new product strategies may be announced, alongside a supply tightening due to Moutai's decision to halt product shipments to distributors [6][8]. - The market has seen a rebound in prices, with ordinary Feitian Moutai recovering from below the official price of 1499 RMB to a range of 1650-1750 RMB [4][6]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Moutai reported total revenue of 1309.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with core product sales showing strong performance [8][9]. - Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1105.14 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.28% growth, while series liquor revenue declined to 178.84 billion RMB due to product line adjustments [9]. Strategic Transformation - Moutai is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on three core products: Moutai 1935, Feitian Moutai, and Premium Moutai, targeting different price segments [10][11]. - The company is shifting from a channel-centric approach to a consumer-centric model, aiming to connect with broader emotional and daily life scenarios [20][21]. Industry Outlook - The current price decline and slowing growth are seen as part of a necessary "value reconstruction" process for Moutai and the broader liquor industry, moving away from speculative practices towards genuine value creation [21]. - The evolving consumer base, particularly younger generations, will play a crucial role in determining future market dynamics and competitive positioning [21].

Core Insights - The recent resignations of key executives in the Chinese liquor industry highlight the urgent need for strategic transformation amid deep industry adjustments [1][5][14] Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe Co., under Zhang Liandong's leadership, experienced a revenue decline of 12.83% to 28.876 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit plummeting 33.37% to 6.673 billion yuan, dropping from third to fifth in industry rankings [2][4] - Jinzhongzi Liquor, led by He Xiuxia, saw revenue decrease from 1.186 billion yuan in 2022 to 925 million yuan in 2024, with a cumulative net loss of 633 million yuan [10][12] Group 2: Strategic Challenges - Yanghe's strategic missteps included outdated brand management and a rigid distribution model, leading to losses in market share against competitors like Jinshiyuan [4][15] - Jinzhongzi's challenges stemmed from a misalignment between beer and liquor market strategies, resulting in a lack of brand recognition and market penetration [10][12] Group 3: Management Changes - The resignations of Zhang Liandong and He Xiuxia reflect broader trends in the industry, with local governments influencing management changes to drive strategic shifts [7][16] - The new leadership at both companies faces significant challenges, including cash flow issues and the need to balance independence with corporate integration [12][18] Group 4: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is currently in a "shrinking competition" phase, with production among large enterprises declining by 6.8% in 2024, and revenue growth slowing significantly [15] - The departure of key executives signals a shift from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," emphasizing the need for strategic innovation and organizational transformation [18]