在这个史上最长的春节假期落幕时，白酒行业观察者们发现了一件怪事：往年节后价格通常要"松松弦"的飞天茅台，今年竟然不跌了，甚至还涨了。 "原本春节后飞天茅台的价格一般会降下来，但今年目前是不降反升。"一位深耕行业多年的酒商在面对记者采访时，语气中带着一丝意外 当大多数人还在回味年夜饭的余温时，白酒板块已经在这个"加长版"春节里上演了一场极致分化的好戏。今天，我们就来聊聊这个不一样的春节动销季。 如果说"茅五"的亮眼表现是意料之中，那么今年春节呈现出的 "哑铃型"消费结构，则给整个行业提了个醒。 所谓"哑铃型"，即高端和大众两端火热，中间价格带承压。 在哑铃的一端，是代表面子与品质的高端酒。茅台成为年夜饭桌上的"C位"，甚至在i茅台上1499元的飞天依然一瓶难求 而在哑铃的另一端，是代表里子与性价比的大众酒。北京商报记者走访发现，泸州老窖六年窖龄酒、海之蓝等300元以下的产品成为返乡聚饮、家庭自饮的 主力军 在以往的市场规律中，高端白酒往往遵循"节前涨、节后跌"的节奏。然而今年，这个规律被改写了。 记者在走访终端市场时发现，当前飞天茅台的终端零售价普遍维持在1750元上方，个别烟酒店甚至报价逼近1900元，完全没 ...

作为白酒消费的关键风向标，飞天茅台在春节期间的批发价格稳步回升，部分地区甚至出现售罄的情 况。一位茅台经销商表示，部分地区经销商1、2月的茅台配额早在春节前便售罄，已开始申请3月的配 额。不仅飞天茅台，五粮液在春节期间的动销情况也明显提升。相关数据显示，五粮液39度产品的动销 同比增长超双位数，其中宴席场次增长1倍以上，宴席动销大幅增长。华创证券近期在南京、长沙、成 都等地的草根调研显示，五粮液批发价格整体平稳，库存仅约1个月，远低于行业平均水平，渠道状态 相对健康。 随着春节假期结束，白酒市场逐渐步入消费淡季。今年春节假期，白酒市场呈现清晰的"哑铃型"消费结 构。北京商报记者近日走访北京部分终端市场并结合春节期间调研发现，高端酒与大众酒两端需求升 温，次高端酒则销售低迷，白酒市场的消费场景正深度重构。白酒行业如何在即将到来的传统消费淡 季"弯道超车"，成为所有从业者必须直面的课题。 次高端酒陷消费断层 今年春节期间，白酒消费分化明显。这种分化不再是简单的品牌此消彼长，而是沿着价格带形成清晰的 断层。 北京商报记者走访发现，春节期间，茅台、五粮液等高端及超高端白酒产品不仅扛住价格压力，更实现 量价齐升。据国盛 ...

板块下的成分股表现方面，仅6只白酒股收涨，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、洋河股份和泸州老 窖等龙头股收跌。其中跌幅最大为泸州老窖，收盘报112.5元/股，跌3.23%；农历新年前不断走高的贵 州茅台，24日收盘为1466.8元/股，跌1.25%，其他龙头股跌幅在0.8%至1.4%之间。 春节假期后首个交易日，白酒走出了"逆市"行情。 2月24日，A股大盘高开并收盘企稳4100点以上，但白酒行业却全线调整，同花顺白酒数据显示，该板 块高开2669.58点后走低，收盘报2619.94点跌0.94%。南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者了解到， 从2月6日开始，白酒板块呈现走低态势，2月份的7个交易日中有6个交易日收跌。 不过，市场分化加剧的同时，行业研报却认为龙头品牌已率先展现出复苏韧性。 高盛发布的中国白酒行业动态追踪显示，2026年农历新年期间白酒整体零售需求同比下降两位数，但这 一降幅相较于2025年中秋节下滑情况已有所企稳，表现略好于节前市场的普遍预期。 华创证券24日发布的研报表示，春节期间白酒表现整体符合节前预期，行业整体动销下滑双位数，回款 节奏慢于去年同期，其中高端"茅五"动销实现双位数增长，百 ...

与高端市场的火热形成呼应的是大众价格带的繁荣。走访时，北京商报记者发现，泸州老窖六年窖龄 酒、海之蓝等300元以下白酒产品也成为消费者追捧的热销产品。方庄附近的烟酒店店员表示："春节期 间高端白酒产品销量亮眼的同时，大众酒销量也在稳步提升。家庭自饮场景下消费者多选择大众酒，进 一步推动了该价格带动销提升，这与我们年前的预判一致。" 随着9天"加长版"假期落下帷幕，白酒旺季消费也逐渐告一段落。今年春节期间，白酒消费市场呈现出 清晰的"哑铃型"分化结构。2月24日，北京商报记者走访北京部分终端市场并结合春节期间调研发现， 高端酒与大众酒两端需求升温，次高端价位却陷入"冰河期"，这一格局的形成，是消费场景深度重构的 集中体现。如今，当春节旺季的喧嚣散去，白酒行业如何在接下来的消费淡季中"弯道超车"，成为所有 从业者必须直面的课题。 高端与大众的"崛起" 在白酒传统消费周期中，春节假期既将行业消费旺季推向小高潮，也预示着淡季的到来。在2026年春节 期间，白酒消费在旺季小高潮中，呈现出明显的分化发展。这种分化不再是简单的品牌此消彼长，而是 沿着价格带形成了清晰的断层。 北京商报记者走访终端发现，春节期间，茅台、五粮液 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, national catering and retail consumption showed steady growth, with holiday consumption potential continuing to be released. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the first four days of the Spring Festival in 2026 increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [5][19] - The performance of Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as some mid-to-low-end price segments, exceeded expectations, while the overall performance of Fenjiu remained stable [15][19] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Moutai and mid-to-low-end liquor sales during the Spring Festival showed growth, while sub-premium liquor continued to face pressure. Moutai's repayment progress slightly exceeded the same period last year, and Wuliangye's repayment progress remained stable [15][6] - The mid-to-low-end liquor segment is expected to achieve double-digit growth during the Spring Festival, while high-end liquor sales are under pressure [15][6] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index (801120.SL) dropping by 2.51% during the week of February 9 to February 14, ranking 29th among 30 Shenwan primary industries [20] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry saw declines, with meat products, health products, and baked goods experiencing relatively smaller drops [20] 3. Key Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao announced that the number of restricted stock units eligible for release is 1,962,814 shares, accounting for 0.1333% of the company's total share capital [29] - Miaokelan Duo signed a memorandum with SADAFCO to explore the market for children's cheese snacks in Saudi Arabia [29] 4. Important Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-subsidy measures for EU companies, with rates ranging from 7.4% to 11.7%, effective from February 13, 2026 [31] - Kangshifu launched a new product, Kangshifu Ice Red Tea Energy, entering the energy drink market [31] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of February 10, 2026, wheat prices were 2,510.8 RMB/ton, up 6.45% year-on-year, while pork prices were 18.08 RMB/kg, down 11.63% year-on-year [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. has announced the launch of the seventh generation of its popular product, "Hai Zhi Lan," which has been well-received by consumers and is positioned as a key product in the 100 yuan price range [2] Group 1 - Yanghe Co., Ltd. confirmed that "Hai Zhi Lan" has been a significant product for the company, contributing to its popularity among consumers [2] - The company plans to continue promoting the "Hai Zhi Lan" product line as part of its growth strategy [2] - "Hai Zhi Lan" has been designated as the official strategic partner for the 2026 Jiangsu Province Urban Football League, indicating the company's commitment to supporting local sports initiatives [2]

Core Insights - JD.com's "Send New Year Goods to Hometown" event successfully delivered festive products, including the popular Yanghe liquor, to local residents in Guangming Village, Suqian City, Jiangsu Province [1] - The sales of "Guangming Village Edition" Yanghe liquor on JD.com increased by 51% week-on-week, highlighting its popularity during the festive season [1] Company Collaboration - JD.com and Yanghe liquor have deepened their partnership since 2012, launching various products tailored to consumer needs, such as 211ml small bottles and 618ml commemorative editions [1] - During JD.com's 20th anniversary, a co-branded product, Dream Blue JD20, was introduced, showcasing a blend of traditional flavors crafted by 46 national liquor masters, exemplifying the collaboration between the two companies [1] Industry Impact - Yanghe liquor is a staple for celebrations and gatherings, with specific products like Dream Blue and Tian Zhi Lan being popular choices for weddings and family reunions [1] - The unique taste profile of Yanghe liquor, characterized by its "sweet, soft, and fragrant" qualities, has significantly influenced the development of the Chinese liquor industry, establishing a new category of mellow liquor [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Baijiu industry, particularly the performance of major brands during the 2026 Spring Festival period, comparing it to the previous year. Key Points Moutai (茅台) - Moutai's sales are expected to complete 40% of the annual plan before the festival, with payment progress accelerating by 5% year-on-year [1] - The price of Moutai remains around 1,700 RMB, with a significant reduction of 35% in the supply of non-standard products [1][3] - Post-festival, Moutai prices may slightly decrease, potentially down to around 1,500 RMB, depending on market demand [8] Wuliangye (五粮液) - Wuliangye's payment rate is at 60%, with expected shipments close to 60% before the festival [4] - The price range is between 790-800 RMB, showing significant year-on-year growth [4] - The brand's sales are boosted by digital empowerment and promotional activities, with a projected increase of 40% in sales volume compared to last year [4][20] Guojiao 1573 (国窖 1,573) - Guojiao 1573's payment collection is below expectations, with most distributors achieving less than 10% of the target [5] - The price remains firm at 840-850 RMB, but has decreased by over 30% year-on-year due to high social inventory [5] Langjiu (郎酒) and Shede (舍得) - Langjiu has completed payments ahead of schedule, with prices stable at around 650 RMB, showing slight improvement in sales [6] - Shede's sales are slower, with a year-on-year decline of 10% [6] Jiangsu Market Performance - Jiangsu's overall Baijiu market performance is disappointing, with Yanghe's sales significantly affected by inventory issues and product transitions [24] - Yanghe's overall payment is only about half of last year's, with specific products like Hai Zhi Lan underperforming [24][27] Price Trends - Yanghe's product prices are stable with slight increases, but some products have seen declines due to market conditions [25] - The overall price trend in Jiangsu shows a mix of stability and slight increases, with some products experiencing significant drops [25] Market Dynamics - The Baijiu market is experiencing a polarization, with some brands like Water Well performing well in certain regions while others struggle due to poor distributor performance [22] - The overall expectation for post-festival demand is mixed, with Moutai expected to see a 10% increase, while Wuliangye may see a slight decline due to previous inventory control measures [31] Inventory and Sales Performance - Inventory levels for various brands are high, with Guojiao 1573 and others facing challenges in moving stock [15][16] - The overall sales performance in the Baijiu market shows a decline in many segments, with some brands like Water Well facing significant challenges due to structural issues in distribution [22][23] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of digital tools and promotional strategies in driving sales for brands like Wuliangye [4] - The impact of last year's inventory control policies on current sales dynamics was discussed, indicating a shift in market strategies [32]

Core Insights - The company, Yanghe, is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with a projected drop of 62.18% to 68.3 billion yuan, marking the largest decline in five years [2][3] - The company is facing challenges due to a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry, characterized by increased competition, reduced market demand, and rising channel inventory [5][14] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 211.58 million yuan and 252.36 million yuan, representing a decline of 62.18% to 68.30% compared to the previous year [4] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to fall between 185.32 million yuan and 226.10 million yuan, down 66.92% to 72.89% year-on-year [4] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 1.40 yuan and 1.68 yuan, compared to 4.43 yuan per share in the previous year [4] Product Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 36.52%, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.24% in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - The terminal price of the mid-range product, Mengzhilan M6+, has dropped to 585 yuan, significantly lower than the official price of 998 yuan, indicating a price inversion of over 40% [6][9] - The high-end product, Mengzhilan Handcrafted Class Ten Years, is selling for 888 to 1000 yuan on e-commerce platforms, which is 53% lower than its official price of 1899 yuan [9] Market Challenges - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue both domestically and in external markets, with a drop exceeding 25% in both areas, and a staggering 42.68% decline in external markets [9][10] - The number of distributors has decreased by 268 in external markets, indicating challenges in maintaining market presence [10] Strategic Adjustments - The new chairman, Gu Yu, has initiated strategic adjustments focusing on core brands and optimizing product quality, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain [12][14] - The company plans to manage inventory and stabilize prices while enhancing brand strength, but internal sources indicate that significant improvements may take time [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by more than 5% within the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is showing mixed performance as the Spring Festival approaches, with certain sub-sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, and media performing well, while others like light manufacturing and retail are declining [3][7]. - In the food and beverage sector, high-end liquor brands are expected to maintain market share due to strong demand, while the casual dining market is recovering as supply chain conditions stabilize [3]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to benefit from a release of pent-up demand, with leading companies adapting quickly to consumer changes [3]. - The jewelry sector, particularly gold and accessories, presents investment opportunities, focusing on brands with potential market share growth [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Food and Beverage - Alcohol - Major liquor companies are experiencing deeper profit adjustments, but leading brands are expected to gain market share [3]. - Focus on three main lines: high-end liquor, mid-range liquor with national expansion, and local market strongholds [3]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The at-home dining market is expanding, with companies like Guoquan showing strong growth potential [3]. - The restaurant supply chain is stabilizing, with sectors like condiments and frozen foods recovering from previous lows [3]. Social Services - The tourism sector is evolving, with leading companies responding effectively to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is growing steadily, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market changes [3]. Apparel and Jewelry - Investment opportunities are seen in the gold and jewelry sector, particularly for brands with room for market share growth [3]. Home Appliances - The air conditioning market is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on value creation rather than just scale [20]. - The electric compressor market is growing rapidly, driven by the expansion of the new energy vehicle sector [20]. Key Company Announcements - Companies like Huaxi Biological and Ruoyu Chen are projecting significant profit increases for 2025, driven by operational efficiency and market expansion [26][28]. - Anta Sports is acquiring a significant stake in PUMA, enhancing its global market position [29].