白酒中秋国庆跟踪电话会 20251007 摘要 双节期间白酒动销整体不及去年，但高端白酒如茅台、五粮液受送礼需 求影响跌幅较小，300-600 元价格带下滑最快。线上渠道分流部分线下 销量，导致线下经销商渠道下滑明显。 烟酒店销售分化严重，客情关系维护良好的烟酒店下滑幅度较小。洋河 通过控货调价，产品价格有所上升，但社会库存仍然较大。国缘终端库 存偏大，部分产品价格有所下降。 江苏地区，金士源回款进度较好，超出 65%，洋河约为 55%，整体回 款速度下降。金士源整体库存超三个月，中秋国庆期间动销好于同价位 其他产品，但收缩了费用投入。 安徽地区宴会市场增加，但终端店线下出货量减少，线上销售增长迅速。 古井贡酒整体销量与去年持平，但不同系列产品表现分化。300-500 元 价格带产品表现较弱。 安徽地区白酒价格总体稳定，但受政策影响，部分产品价格有所下降。 终端店库存量普遍不多，拼多多平台品牌酒利润极低，终端店分化加剧， 商超销量下滑。 Q&A 江苏地区在中秋国庆期间白酒动销情况如何？ 中秋国庆期间，江苏地区的白酒动销情况与去年同期相比有所下滑。洋河主要 以去库存为主，整体价格有所上升，例如梦三水晶版和梦六加 ...

9月29日，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）盘中走势震荡，截至发稿跌0.28%，溢折率0.04%，盘中频现溢 价交易。 成分股中，养元饮品涨超4%，古井贡酒、泸州老窖、金达威、中粮糖业等跟涨。 此外，据市场监管总局官网，9月28日，市场监管总局党组书记、局长罗文带队在北京调研国庆中秋节 前食品安全、特种设备安全及重要民生商品稳价保质等工作。 据第一财经，随着"十一"国庆假期的临近，旅游市场已然升温。据报道，今年"十一"假期出游人数较去 年同期出现大幅增长，同比增幅高达130%，机票预订也已全面进入高峰期。这一强劲的开局信号，预 示着今年国庆假期有望成为一个拉动内需、释放消费潜力的"超级黄金周"。 国盛证券表示，近期临近中秋国庆白酒动销旺季，白酒终端需求经历了Q2持续磨底后，临近旺季各地 动销反馈均呈现边际回暖趋势。中长期行业价值凸显。短期看弹性、中长期看龙头。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） Wind金融终端数据显示，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）已连续9个交易日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"近 1.7亿元；截至9月26日，该ETF最新流通 ...

酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -"硬汉精英"退场，白酒代言人焕新； -高端啤酒"战场"生变：华润、青啤、燕京集体"围剿"百威； -宴席市场成业绩突围"新战场"？ 行业环境 1."硬汉精英"退场，白酒代言人焕新 关键词 ： 白酒代言人,年轻艺人,营销方式,价值主张,生活方式 概要 ： 近年来，白酒行业代言人策略发生显著变化，从过去偏好中年男性代言人转向年轻 化、多元化的明星艺人，如邓紫棋、张艺兴、黄渤、徐志胜等。这一转变反映了白酒品牌从传 统厚重形象向年轻化、生活化转型的趋势，旨在通过"社交货币"而非"权威背书"吸引新生代消 费者。代言人不仅是流量入口，更是品牌与消费者情感连接的桥梁，帮助白酒企业从"卖酒"转 向"卖生活方式"。同时，营销逻辑也从渠道驱动转向消费者驱动，注重社群互动和用户共创， 以增强品牌认同。这一系列变化标志着白酒行业正加速适应消费者主权时代，寻求与年轻群体 的深度共鸣。 2.光瓶酒冷热分化：牛栏山等失意，玻汾"封神"？ 关键词 ： 光瓶酒市场,消费升级,行业洗牌,高线光瓶酒,理性消费 概要 ： 光瓶酒市场呈现"冰火两重天"态势：传统品牌如牛栏山因低价竞争导致营收利润大幅下 滑，而汾酒玻汾等产 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The white liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation with a shift towards younger and more diverse brand ambassadors, moving from traditional middle-aged male figures to younger celebrities to connect with new generations of consumers [2] - The high-end beer market is experiencing a competitive shift, with local brands like China Resources and Qingdao Beer gaining ground against international players like Budweiser [4] - The banquet market is emerging as a new battleground for revenue growth, with several liquor companies reporting double-digit growth in this segment [5] - The direct sales revenue of eight listed liquor companies exceeded 640 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] - The low-alcohol product segment is rapidly growing, with expectations to surpass 742 billion yuan by 2025, driven by changing consumer preferences [8] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is shifting towards younger brand ambassadors, reflecting a broader trend of appealing to younger consumers through lifestyle marketing [2] - The light bottle liquor market is experiencing a split, with traditional brands struggling while high-quality products like Guojiao are in high demand [2] - The high-end beer market is seeing local brands outperform international ones, with China Resources surpassing Budweiser in revenue [4] - The banquet market is becoming a key area for growth as companies adapt to changing consumer behaviors [5] - The direct sales model is gaining traction, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [6] - The low-alcohol segment is expected to grow rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards lighter beverages [8] Top Brand News - Songhe Liquor is enhancing its quality strategy and aims for long-term growth through a focus on aged products [10] - The launch of "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" marks a significant entry into the high-end liquor market, leveraging a strong sales strategy [11] - Gujing Gongjiu is integrating cultural elements into consumer experiences to enhance brand engagement [13] - The "UMEET" blueberry distilled liquor targets younger consumers by combining health and quality [20] - The collaboration between Huajun Media and Bojiangfang aims to reshape the market for sauce-flavored liquor through strategic marketing [19]

Core Insights - The demand for high-end liquor has been declining, leading to a significant drop in sales for many liquor retailers, particularly during the second quarter of the year [1][2] - Despite a recent uptick in inquiries and orders, the overall sales volume and prices of high-end liquor remain lower than in previous years, with many retailers reporting a double-digit decline in orders for the upcoming holidays [1][9] - Marketing strategies among liquor brands are diversifying, with a focus on mid-range products and promotional activities to stimulate sales during the holiday season [4][7] Group 1: Market Trends - Retailers have observed a noticeable increase in inquiries and orders for high-end liquor in the last two weeks, particularly for brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, primarily for gifting and gatherings [2][3] - The overall sales of high-end and mid-range liquor are still below last year's levels, with many retailers relying on lower-priced products to maintain revenue [1][5] - The price of Moutai has seen slight fluctuations, with retail prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan, but overall, prices have not significantly rebounded from earlier declines [5][6] Group 2: Brand Strategies - Major liquor brands are intensifying their marketing efforts for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with companies like Wuliangye and Moutai launching various promotional campaigns [4][7] - There is a notable price stabilization for certain high-end products, such as Guojiao 1573, which has maintained a consistent wholesale price, contrasting with the fluctuating prices of other brands [7][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 experiencing different pricing strategies, reflecting their unique market positioning and sales focus [7][8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The majority of recent purchases are for gatherings or banquets, with many consumers opting for smaller quantities rather than bulk purchases, indicating a cautious approach to spending [5][9] - Retailers report that customers are increasingly price-sensitive, with many opting for promotions and discounts available through online platforms [6][10] - The overall sentiment among retailers is one of caution, with expectations that this year's holiday sales will not match the previous year's performance [9]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The overall sales volume in the baijiu industry has declined, with distributors expecting a 20%-30% drop in sales during the upcoming double festival period. Sales volume decreased by 40%-50% in July and August [1][2] - High-end baijiu wholesale prices are weak, with Feitian Moutai priced around 1,780 RMB. Demand for baijiu in banquet scenarios remains stable, while mid-range products perform more consistently [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: The baijiu industry is facing significant sales pressure, with actual sales declines exceeding previous market expectations. Most regions, except for Henan, are experiencing sales drops greater than anticipated [2] - **Inventory Levels**: From June to August, the average sales volume decreased by 50%, leading to a slight increase in inventory levels compared to last year. Most distributors have higher inventory levels than the same period last year [3] - **Price Trends**: High-end baijiu products like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing weak wholesale prices. Feitian Moutai's price is expected to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 RMB during the double festival period [4][8] - **Company Performance Adjustments**: Guizhou Moutai has lowered its annual growth target but maintains a steady collection rate compared to last year. Wuliangye is also expected to adjust its growth target due to market conditions [6][9] Company-Specific Insights - **Guizhou Moutai**: The company is increasing promotional activities for its series of products and expects a slight downward adjustment in annual growth targets, which may benefit investors by releasing risks [8] - **Wuliangye**: The company is shifting its focus from absolute growth to long-term competitiveness, with a return rate of approximately 60%-70% [9][10] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The company is implementing a price stabilization strategy and focusing on expanding its terminal market through targeted promotions [11] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: The company is facing significant sales declines but is maintaining a stable price point due to good relationships with distributors [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with potential for policy-driven growth and those that can adapt to market changes, such as Jiu Gui, She De, and Shui Jing Fang. Mid-range products like Gu Qing Gong and Ying Jia Gong are also highlighted for their recovery potential [5][7] - The overall sentiment is that the baijiu industry is currently at a low point, but there are opportunities for recovery and growth in specific segments and companies [27] Additional Considerations - The impact of external factors, such as government inspections and coal supply pressures, has affected consumption patterns in various regions [12][14] - The performance of next-tier baijiu products is weaker compared to high-end and mid-range products, indicating a need for careful monitoring of new product launches [21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the baijiu industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production and profits [1] - The overall market is experiencing a slowdown, with a notable increase in inventory pressure among distributors [1][2] - A majority of listed liquor companies are facing revenue declines, indicating a shift in the industry's growth logic [3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% [1] - The industry's profit was 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, and the average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, an increase of 10% from the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [3] - The market is increasingly concentrated among leading companies, with the top six companies accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024 [3] - The median revenue growth rate for companies with over 10 billion yuan in revenue was 2.36%, while those below 10 billion yuan saw a median decline of 16.89% [3] Price Trends - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with the previous "volume reduction, price increase" model failing, leading to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining from September 2024 to August 2025, affecting even premium brands [3] - Specific price drops include Moutai's batch price falling from 1820 yuan to 980 yuan, and other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao also experiencing significant price reductions [4] Notable Company Results - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of the 19 listed liquor companies was 241.48 billion yuan, with Kweichow Moutai leading at 91.094 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye at 52.771 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiangsu Yanghe and Jiu Gui Jiu saw revenue declines of 35.32% and 43.54%, respectively, indicating severe challenges for smaller firms [6][7][8] - The median revenue growth rate for listed liquor companies was -11.85%, with 11 companies experiencing declines over 10% and 4 companies over 20% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co. reported its worst interim performance since its listing, with revenue down 35.32% year-on-year and net profit down 45.34% [2][3][10] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Yanghe achieved revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% [3][10] - The second quarter saw revenue drop 43.7% to 3.729 billion yuan and net profit decline 62.7% to 707 million yuan [3][10] - This marks the third occurrence of simultaneous revenue and profit decline since 2009, with the current declines being the largest in 16 years [3][10] Market Performance - Yanghe's stock price has fallen 5.69% year-to-date, contrasting with a 14.96% increase in the CSI 300 index [4][15] - Institutional holdings decreased by 3.14 percentage points by the end of the second quarter compared to the beginning of the year [4] Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from high-end liquor (≥100 yuan/500ml) fell 36.5% to 12.672 billion yuan, while ordinary liquor (<100 yuan/500ml) revenue decreased 27.2% to 1.841 billion yuan [6] - The traditional wholesale distribution channel generated 14.292 billion yuan, down 35.78%, continuing a downward trend from the previous year [6] - Online direct sales revenue was 221 million yuan, a slight decline of 6.91%, attributed to increased promotional efforts on platforms like Tmall and JD [7] Regional Performance - Revenue in Jiangsu province, Yanghe's main market, decreased 25.79% to 7.121 billion yuan, while revenue from outside Jiangsu fell 42.68% to 7.392 billion yuan [7] - The company has faced increased competition from rivals like Jinshiyuan, impacting its market share in Jiangsu [7] Operational Challenges - Yanghe's management acknowledged four core issues: insufficient brand renewal, reduced channel profit margins, high channel inventory, and slow marketing transformation [11][12] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 75.94%, a slight decrease of 0.13% year-on-year, indicating ongoing profitability pressure [13] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of June, Yanghe's inventory was valued at 19.103 billion yuan, accounting for 31.14% of total assets, an increase from 29.30% at the end of the previous year [13] - The net cash flow from operating activities was only 616 million yuan, a decline of 69.85% year-on-year, reflecting weakened cash generation capabilities [13] Management Transition - The resignation of former chairman Zhang Liandong coincided with the release of the poor interim report, marking a challenging end to his tenure [4][16] - New chairman Gu Yu has emphasized quality as a core strategy and aims to address the brand's market perception and operational challenges [17][18] Strategic Outlook - Yanghe is focusing on expanding its low-alcohol product line to adapt to market trends, although this segment is highly competitive [19] - The company aims to enhance its brand value and operational efficiency through improved marketing strategies and product innovation [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with companies like Yanghe Co. demonstrating strong resilience and adaptability in the face of uncertainty and pressure [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a "three-phase overlap" period, characterized by policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and deep competition among existing players [2]. - The industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "value reconstruction," facing challenges such as policy impacts and changing consumer preferences [2]. Company Performance - Yanghe Co. reported a revenue of 14.796 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.344 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year declines of 35.32% and 45.34% respectively [2][7]. - Despite the decline in revenue and profit, the market reacted positively, with the company's stock rising by 5.36% following the earnings report [4]. Strategic Adaptation - Yanghe Co. is implementing a tactical "deep squat" strategy, focusing on long-term growth and building resilience against market fluctuations [2]. - The company has reduced production capacity and inventory, achieving a 51.63% decrease in production volume and a 33.96% reduction in inventory [7]. Product and Market Strategy - Yanghe Co. has successfully launched new products, such as the "Yanghe Daqu High-Line Light Bottle Wine," which quickly gained popularity among consumers [8]. - The company maintains a strong presence in the mid-to-high-end liquor market, contributing over 80% of its revenue with a gross margin of 80.27% [8]. - Yanghe Co. is expanding its online sales channels, achieving 220 million yuan in sales from platforms like Tmall and JD.com in the first half of 2025 [8]. Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 73.2 million yuan, a 58.6% year-on-year increase, aiming to enhance brewing technology and product quality [10]. - Yanghe Co. has successfully expanded its market presence from Jiangsu to nationwide, with revenue from Jiangsu at 7.121 billion yuan and from outside Jiangsu at 7.392 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [10]. Investor Confidence - Yanghe Co. has committed to a cash dividend policy, ensuring annual dividends of no less than 70% of net profit, which enhances investor confidence [11]. - The company is viewed positively by various securities firms, indicating a potential for recovery and growth in the medium to long term [12].

Core Viewpoint - The pressure on Yanghe Co., Ltd.'s second-quarter performance may have peaked, with expectations for significant improvement in financial reports starting from the third quarter due to a lower comparative base [2][22]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yanghe's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.32% and 45.34% year-on-year, amounting to 14.796 billion yuan and 4.344 billion yuan respectively [3][7]. - The company's contract liabilities saw a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, reaching 5.878 billion yuan, with prepayments soaring by 124% to 2.246 billion yuan [4][8]. Market Strategy and Adjustments - Yanghe has implemented a series of measures to address brand and channel issues, focusing on the Jiangsu market and high-ground markets while controlling volume and stabilizing prices for key products [4][10]. - The introduction of new products, such as the seventh generation of "Hai Zhi Lan" and "Yanghe Daqu" high-line bottled liquor, aims to optimize the product structure and cater to consumer preferences [12][11]. Dealer Confidence and Channel Management - The significant increase in contract liabilities indicates a rise in dealer confidence, reflecting the effectiveness of Yanghe's strategies to alleviate pressure on dealers [8][10]. - The number of dealers decreased by 257 to 8,609, with a focus on enhancing the dealer network in Jiangsu while reducing those outside the province [11]. Institutional Investment - In the second quarter of 2025, three institutions increased their holdings in Yanghe by over 8 million shares, indicating market optimism regarding the company's performance recovery [16][20]. - The stock price showed a recovery from a low of 60.99 yuan per share to a high of 74.8 yuan per share, marking a maximum increase of 23% [20]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect Yanghe to enter a phase of improved performance starting in the third quarter of 2025, with a lower comparative base and a potential recovery in revenue [22][21]. - The company is seen as having strong brand value, channel networks, and production capacity, which are expected to support its long-term growth despite current market challenges [22][21].