Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing significant challenges due to weak consumer demand and increased competition, with Shanxi Fenjiu emerging as the third-largest player in 2024, but struggling to maintain its position against stronger competitors like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [2][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The baijiu industry is experiencing a downturn, with a notable decline in production and a competitive landscape that poses risks even for leading companies [2][5]. - In 2024, the total revenue of the baijiu industry reached 796.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, while production fell to 4.145 million kiloliters, down 1.8% from the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Shanxi Fenjiu's Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 12.79% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu continued its growth trajectory with a revenue of 16.522 billion yuan, a 7.72% increase, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15% [4]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Despite its revenue growth, Shanxi Fenjiu's profitability is under pressure, as it lags behind competitors like Luzhou Laojiao in net profit, with Shanxi Fenjiu's profit at 12.243 billion yuan compared to Luzhou Laojiao's 13.473 billion yuan [6][8]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's strategy appears to focus on volume over price, leading to lower average selling prices compared to competitors, which may hinder its ability to compete in the high-end market [8][9]. Group 4: Management and Governance Issues - Shanxi Fenjiu currently lacks a complete executive team, with the position of General Manager remaining vacant since June 2023, raising concerns about governance stability [10][12][15]. - The absence of a General Manager and recent high-level management changes may impact the company's strategic direction and operational effectiveness [15][16]. Group 5: Market Challenges - The company faces challenges from counterfeit products and market saturation, which could undermine its brand and consumer trust [18][19]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's market position is threatened by increasing competition from both established players and emerging brands, making it difficult to maintain its third-place ranking in the industry [2][19].

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 上周末"禁酒令"再出，周一开盘头部白酒股普遍跌幅在2%左右，其中贵州茅台跌破2万亿大关。之 后两日白酒板块连红，终于让茅台市值"收复失地"。这好像验证了市场普遍认为的，在经历了多 次"禁酒令"后，此次对白酒业的杀伤力有限。 其次，在2025年最新修订的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》中，关键一句是"工作餐不得提供香 烟，不上酒，且不得安排鱼翅、燕窝等高档菜肴。"还有补充的一句"国有企业、国有金融企业、不 参照公务员法管理的事业单位，参照本条例执行。" 新规虽表面是仅针对"工作餐"场景，但部分省份如贵州、江苏已提前实施"工作日禁酒"；同时将早 期政策中对"高档酒水"的局部限制升级为全面禁酒，明确禁止所有含酒精饮料，包括白酒、红酒、 啤酒等；同时将国企等也划到新规范围内。之前酒企可以通过"价格规避"（ 推出政府餐标之内价格 的酒 ）、"渠道变通"等操作寻得一定机动空间，但如今无法绕过规定，就会形成刚性约束。 而市场普遍认为影响不会很大，关键的原因在于， 如今白酒企业的政务消费比例已经从2011年的 40%降至5%左右 ，给营收带来的直接影响会大幅缩小。另 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 头图 | 视觉中国 上周末"禁酒令"再出，周一开盘头部白酒股普遍跌幅在2%左右，其中贵州茅台跌破2万亿大关。之后两日白 酒板块连红，终于让茅台市值"收复失地"。这好像验证了市场普遍认为的，在经历了多次"禁酒令"后，此次 对白酒业的杀伤力有限。 但禁酒令最大的"杀伤力"其实不在短期的股价变化，而是会通过影响酒企战略布局，并改变白酒行业格局。 比如最近讨论度很高的茅台股东大会不喝茅台酒，改喝蓝莓汁，等。 这次的禁酒令又会让行业往何处发展？关键是，如果按周期底部利空出尽就是利好的投资逻辑来看，白酒板 块当下是否具有投资机会？ 这次有啥不一样？ 禁酒文件年年有，但此次还是有点不一样。看过新"禁酒令"的内容，会发现其实规格、标准都提高了。 首先，近年来的禁酒类文件多为某一省份、地市自行发文，没有全国统一层面的规定，此次则是由中共中 央、国务院印发，并要求各地区各部门认真遵照执行。 其次，在2025年最新修订的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》中，关键一句是"工作餐不得提供香烟，不上 酒，且不得安排鱼翅、燕窝等高档菜肴。"还有补充的一句"国有企业、国有金融企业、不参照公务员法管理 的 ...