但现实很骨感，低度酒从来没有真正带领行业走出过低谷，拯救行业的往往是高端化。 如果低度酒真能救行业，那茅台最大的对手或许是江小白。 低度酒救不了行业，要从白酒这门生意的本质说起。 白酒是披着C端外衣的B端/G端生意。 俗话说"烟铺路、酒搭桥"，高端白酒绝大部分消费来自商务场景：茅台商务接待占比 50%，礼品占比 30%，宴会占10%，剩余才是自饮等需求。 历史是个轮回，尤其对白酒而言。 从1989年亚洲金融危机到2012年八项规定再到如今的需求下行+最严禁酒令，每逢白酒遇到危机，行业 总会出现低度化风潮。 逻辑看似很完美：低度酒可以在不伤害品牌的情况下降价，吸引更多消费者。 而商务场景又由经济周期和产业结构决定，白酒的供给端创新显然无法撬动商务场景。 低度酒救市逻辑不通，又有历史的前车之鉴。由此，部分投资人质疑酒企集体押注低度酒，并非战略主 动调整，而是来自股东压力——面对持续"不乐观"的业绩和低迷股价，管理层"必须做点什么"。 调整是否来自股东压力暂且不论。 但行业想要走出下行趋势更务实的做法是，卸下业绩包袱，放弃压货换增长的打法，牺牲短期业绩去创 造更健康的行业环境。 / 01 /白酒降度是悖论 曾被视为 ...

Industry Overview - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with the white liquor sector facing high channel inventory and price inversion, while leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye continue to grow [6][11] - The beer industry is performing well, with major players like China Resources, Tsingtao, and Yanjing showing revenue and profit growth, driven by high-end products [5][6] - The overall liquor market structure remains largely unchanged, with leading companies gaining more advantages while different liquor categories face unique challenges and opportunities [6][10] Key Insights on Liquor Segments - The second and third-tier sauce liquor brands are struggling with inventory buildup and price inversion, necessitating a shift from scale competition to value competition, focusing on brand positioning and quality upgrades [3][4] - The beer industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on high-end products, craft beers, and innovative distribution channels, which are becoming key profit growth points [5][6] - The low-alcohol liquor market is projected to reach 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, as younger consumers drive the trend towards "light drinking" and social consumption [13][14] Brand Dynamics - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.19%, showcasing the resilience of industry leaders [16] - Luzhou Laojiao achieved a revenue of 16.454 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, focusing on market penetration and product innovation to adapt to changing consumer demands [20] - Moutai is launching new products to enhance market reach, emphasizing consumer needs and personalized offerings during the adjustment period [7][8] Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards lower alcohol content and personalized products, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao introducing low-alcohol options to cater to younger consumers [13][29] - The focus on emotional value and social attributes in consumption is becoming increasingly important, as brands adapt to the preferences of younger demographics [9][21] - The online sales of aged liquor are growing, with the market expected to exceed 130 billion yuan by 2024, driven by younger consumers and the demand for unique experiences [14][19] Strategic Initiatives - Companies are increasingly adopting cross-industry strategies to attract younger consumers, with brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao exploring collaborations with non-alcoholic sectors [11][12] - The emphasis on cultural experiences and community engagement is becoming a key strategy for brands to build loyalty and enhance consumer connections [25][26] - The introduction of innovative products and marketing strategies is essential for brands to navigate the competitive landscape and meet evolving consumer expectations [22][30]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Jian Nan Chun Group has undergone a significant change in its shareholding structure, with the Mianzhu State-owned Assets Administration Center acquiring approximately 14.51% of the shares, becoming the second-largest shareholder, marking the return of state capital after over 20 years [1][2][4] Shareholding Structure Changes - The registered capital of Jian Nan Chun Group increased from approximately 808 million to about 946 million, reflecting a growth of around 17% [2] - The largest shareholder, Sichuan Tongsheng Investment Co., Ltd., saw its shareholding drop from 74.1439% to 63.0619% [2][3] - Other shareholders also experienced changes in their holdings, with Sichuan Blue Sword Investment Management Co., Ltd. decreasing from 9.948% to 8.4611%, and Sichuan Fusi Information Consulting Co., Ltd. from 6.2175% to 5.2882% [2][3] Historical Context - Jian Nan Chun was originally a state-owned enterprise before its privatization in 2003, when it transitioned to a private company under the leadership of Qiao Tianming and other executives [4] - The company once thrived during the early 2000s but has since lost its competitive edge in the high-end liquor market, failing to capitalize on the premiumization trend [7][10] Financial Performance - Jian Nan Chun's revenue surpassed 10 billion in 2018 and reached 12 billion in 2019, with 2020 revenues reported at 10.226 billion and 11.180 billion in 2021 [7] - Despite entering the 10 billion revenue club, the company has struggled to maintain its market position against competitors like Moutai and Wuliangye [10] Future Outlook - The introduction of state capital is expected to enhance liquidity and provide backing for the company's development [11] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 30 billion by the end of 2025, but this goal appears challenging given the current competitive landscape and internal management uncertainties following the shareholding changes [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in the face of a new round of deep adjustments in the liquor industry, companies must focus on internal capabilities to navigate through cycles successfully [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 semi-annual report shows robust performance with revenue of 1.6454 billion and net profit of 766.3 million, maintaining a high gross margin of 87.1% [2][4]. - The company's high-end products, particularly the Guojiao 1573, have remained resilient against market fluctuations, contributing significantly to revenue and maintaining a leading position in the high-end liquor segment [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Innovations - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on high-end product development while also exploring low-alcohol options, which is seen as a way to seek new growth avenues in the industry [4][9]. - The introduction of the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has been a significant success, showcasing the company's ability to innovate while maintaining quality, with plans for even lower alcohol products in the future [9][10]. Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The company is adapting to changing consumer trends, particularly among the younger generation, by creating lighter, more drinkable products and expanding consumption scenarios [11][15]. - Luzhou Laojiao's "Ice JOYS" summer marketing campaign has successfully positioned Guojiao 1573 as a preferred choice in summer drinking scenarios, enhancing brand visibility among younger consumers [13][15]. Group 4: Digital Transformation and International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation, with significant revenue growth in new channel operations, driven by a comprehensive data tracking system [17][18]. - Luzhou Laojiao is also focusing on international markets, leveraging its low-alcohol products to appeal to global consumers, thereby expanding its market presence [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company 牛栏山 is facing unprecedented survival challenges due to a significant decline in net profit by 59% and a 19.24% drop in revenue, attributed to shrinking restaurant channels, competition from premium liquor brands, and changing consumer preferences [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.24% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173 million yuan, reflecting a 59.09% decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The revenue from distribution decreased by 23.36% to 3.593 billion yuan [7]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company is experiencing "cyclical and structural" pressures, with a structural decline in the restaurant channel and competition from premium brands like 汾酒 and 泸州老窖 [5]. - The consumption of lower-alcohol beverages like beer is dominating the market, leading to a reduced presence of 牛栏山 in dining settings [6]. - The number of distributors in Beijing decreased by 3 to 69, while the number of distributors outside Beijing fell by 20 to 368 [6]. Group 3: Product Performance - The production and sales of 牛栏山's main products have seen significant declines, with the 42-degree 500ml 牛栏山陈酿酒 production down by 58.63% and sales down by 33.05% [4]. - The low-end liquor segment, priced below 10 yuan per 500ml, saw a revenue drop of 25.41%, while mid-to-high-end products also experienced declines of 21.87% and 12.32% respectively [8]. - The company's high-end strategy is hindered by its established brand perception as a "popular" liquor, making it difficult to sell higher-priced products [8][9]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is attempting to innovate with products like "牛碧桶," which combines its liquor with Sprite to appeal to younger consumers [10]. - However, the overall high-end strategy faces challenges due to a lack of consumer engagement and the disappearance of traditional drinking scenarios [10]. - The company must adapt to structural changes in the industry to survive amidst increasing market fragmentation and evolving consumer preferences [10].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation amid economic adjustments and evolving consumer demands, with Luzhou Laojiao demonstrating strong resilience and growth potential through proactive strategies focused on high-end, low-alcohol, youth-oriented, and scenario-based innovations [1][16]. Group 1: High-End Strategy - Since the end of 2024, the liquor industry's growth model has shifted, emphasizing growth quality over mere revenue increases, with Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 150.48 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% of total revenue [3][4]. - The management's deep market insights have led to a strategic focus on high-end products, which serve as a natural moat against economic fluctuations, providing stable cash flow and a loyal high-net-worth customer base [3][4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's high-end strategy is not limited to individual products but is a comprehensive system involving "dual brands, three product lines, and major products," ensuring a robust market presence during industry adjustments [4][6]. Group 2: Low-Alcohol and Youth-Oriented Innovations - Luzhou Laojiao has proactively positioned itself in the low-alcohol segment, with its 38-degree Guojiao 1573 becoming the first low-alcohol liquor to exceed 10 billion yuan in sales, indicating strong market acceptance [8][9]. - The company has successfully developed a 28-degree Guojiao 1573, showcasing its commitment to systematic innovation in low-alcohol products, which cater to the preferences of younger consumers and women seeking lighter drinking options [9][11]. - The rise of younger consumers, particularly those born between 1985 and 1994, is reshaping the liquor consumption landscape, with Luzhou Laojiao leveraging its technical expertise to meet the demand for high-quality low-alcohol products [11][12]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Engagement - Luzhou Laojiao's innovation extends beyond products to include marketing strategies that create engaging consumer experiences, with new channel revenues growing by 28% year-on-year, significantly outpacing traditional channels [13][15]. - The company has embraced brand IP operations to connect with younger demographics, integrating liquor consumption into modern lifestyles through events and experiences that break traditional perceptions of liquor [15][16]. - Initiatives like the "Jiao Master Festival" blend online and offline interactions, expanding drinking scenarios to include casual gatherings and outdoor activities, thus enhancing brand relevance in contemporary culture [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape of the liquor industry is intensifying, with companies facing significant challenges in achieving growth and market dominance. Despite entering the "100 billion revenue club," the company Jinshiyuan's path to growth diverges from its peers, facing declining revenues and profits amid ambitious expansion goals [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Jinshiyuan achieved over 10 billion in revenue but reported a mere 7.24% contribution from out-of-province markets [1]. - The company's half-year report for 2025 indicated a revenue decline of 4.84% and a net profit drop of 9.46%, marking the third instance of simultaneous revenue and profit decline since its listing in 2014 [1]. - Securities firms have revised down their revenue forecasts for Jinshiyuan, with predictions indicating a potential year-on-year revenue decline for 2025, making the ambitious target of 15 billion seem increasingly unattainable [1]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The primary market for Jinshiyuan, Jiangsu province, is experiencing a downturn, significantly impacting the company's overall performance [2]. - The anticipated growth in out-of-province markets has slowed to less than 5%, complicating the company's national expansion efforts [2]. Group 3: High-End Market Strategy - Jinshiyuan's high-end brand, Guoyuan, is facing challenges, with a notable decline in the sales of high-end products, particularly in the 400-600 yuan and above price segments [4]. - The company's core products, especially the V series, are experiencing significant sales drops, casting doubt on its high-end market strategy [4]. Group 4: Expansion Efforts - Jinshiyuan is focusing its national expansion on core markets surrounding Jiangsu, such as Anhui, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, while building a large network of distributors [5]. - Despite efforts to increase the number of out-of-province distributors, there remains a substantial performance gap compared to in-province distributors [5]. - The company is attempting to replicate its successful strategies from Jiangsu in out-of-province markets, although the effectiveness of this approach remains to be seen [7].

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao's performance in the first half of 2025 shows significant declines in revenue and profit, primarily due to the failure of its high-end product strategy [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kouzi Jiao achieved revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 698 million yuan, a decline of 24.90% year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow turned negative at -383 million yuan, with a dramatic year-on-year change of -9854.35% [2] - Accounts receivable increased by 59.71% to 22.77 million yuan, while contract liabilities decreased by 46.74% to 298 million yuan [2] Product Performance - Revenue from high-end liquor was 2.385 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.8% year-on-year, accounting for 96% of total revenue [2] - The "Jian Series" products launched in 2023 have not generated the expected growth, with high-end liquor revenue growth rates of 1.94%, 16.58%, and 0.06% from 2022 to 2024, followed by negative growth in 2025 [4] Market Positioning - Kouzi Jiao's brand recognition is primarily associated with traditional products priced around 110-130 yuan, rather than its high-end offerings [6] - The company faces competition from both local brands like Gujing Gongjiu and national giants such as Moutai and Wuliangye, which have stronger brand power and market support [6] - Marketing expenditures in 2024 reached 1.716 billion yuan, with over 60% allocated to advertising, but digital marketing and content creation investments were insufficient [6] Strategic Challenges - The "Jian Series" lacks clear consumer value propositions and cultural narratives necessary for success in the high-end market [6] - The decline in high-end positioning is attributed to the exhaustion of old business models and a disconnect with new consumer contexts [6] - Short-term strategies should focus on digital channel development and targeted marketing, while long-term strategies must establish a clear brand narrative and product scarcity [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall environment for the liquor industry is bleak, with significant inventory pressure and price inversion issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2][9]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company "Zhenjiu Lid" issued a shocking profit warning, expecting revenue to decline by 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders to drop by 23% to 24% [3]. - The company's financial trajectory shows a stark decline from a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan in 2023, which grew by 20.06%, to a stagnation in 2024 with a slight increase of 0.52% to 7.067 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan [4]. - The flagship brand "Zhenjiu" saw a revenue decrease of 2.3% to 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, with its revenue share dropping to 63.4% [5]. Inventory and Market Challenges - The inventory balance surged from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, indicating severe sales difficulties, with inventory turnover days extending from 517 days to 855 days [5][6]. - The liquor industry is facing widespread challenges, including reduced consumption, high inventory levels, and price inversions due to economic downturns and policy adjustments [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a high-end strategy by launching a new flagship product "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 yuan per bottle, aiming to fill a market gap and achieve significant sales targets [7]. - The company is diversifying into the beer market with the launch of a premium beer called "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end craft beer segment [8]. - The company has engaged celebrity endorsements, including appointing Yao Anna as a brand ambassador, to enhance brand value and appeal to younger demographics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period in 2024, with intensified market competition and frequent personnel changes, prompting companies to view "reform" as a key driver for exploring new growth points to meet challenges and embrace opportunities [1] Company Overview - Wu Xiangdong, chairman of Zhenjiu Lidu Group, has gained popularity in the liquor industry through his outspoken views on social media, becoming a new "internet celebrity" in the sector [2] - Zhenjiu Lidu has experienced fluctuations in performance amid the industry's adjustment cycle, with revenue reaching 70.67 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.52%, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 43.12% to 13.24 billion yuan [3][4][11] Strategic Initiatives - To adapt to current consumer trends, Zhenjiu Lidu has reintroduced the strategic new product "Dazhen Zhenjiu" and appointed Yao Anna as its "Cultural Heritage Ambassador," with Wu Xiangdong personally promoting the product [4][14] - The company has focused on reducing the market expansion pace of its core brand Zhenjiu and has cut back on lower-margin products in its e-commerce business [11] Market Positioning - Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue breakdown shows that only Lidu brand experienced growth, with an 18.3% increase to 13.13 billion yuan, while Zhenjiu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao reported revenues of 44.80 billion yuan, 8.02 billion yuan, and 3.37 billion yuan respectively [11] - The company’s high-end products generated 17.09 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 10.82%, while the next-highest tier products saw an 8.77% increase to 29.95 billion yuan [11] Competitive Landscape - Zhenjiu has maintained its position as the third-largest sauce-flavored liquor brand in Guizhou for two consecutive years, with revenue of 44.80 billion yuan in 2024, competing closely with Guotai, which set a sales target of 60 billion yuan for 2025 [9][12] - The company is facing pressure from established brands like Moutai and Langjiu, necessitating a transformation to enhance its adaptability in the industry [15] Future Outlook - 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of Zhenjiu, and the company aims to transition towards becoming a world-class liquor enterprise, with ongoing marketing innovations and strategic partnerships to strengthen its market position [15]