不过，正如民间所说，人在倒霉的时候，可能喝凉水都会塞牙，比如贵州茅台的张德芹和洋河股份的张联东。 触了霉头的白酒"掌门人" 每个人都有时运不济的时候，但从内心来说，又谁也不想触碰运气差的霉头——无论是达官显贵还是平民百姓，咱都想求个顺风顺水。 自去年以来，白酒行业运气比较差的"掌门人"，恐怕非茅台集团董事长张德芹和洋河股份董事长张联东莫属。 张德芹 张德芹的运气差就差在，他好不容易坐上茅台集团董事长的宝座，从"副厅"扶正为"正厅"，本应志得意满之际，但在他上任不久，茅台酒的价格就突然遭 遇暴跌——卿本无意，奈何遇贼。从此以后，有关贵州茅台的非议就未曾断过。 张联东2021年初荣任洋河股份"掌门人"，至今已经四年有余。洋河2021和2022年的营收增速分别为20.14%和18.76%，犹如美女初妆，表现还算亮眼。 但在2023年第四季度，洋河股份的归母净利润出现了1.87亿元亏损，为近年所罕见。不过，在创下2023年331.26亿元全年营收的基础上，洋河股份仍保持 着10.04%的正向增长。#洋河股份 比较惨的是2024年，洋河股份的营收同比下滑12.83%，净利润同比暴跌33.37%，形势大幅逆转。在这一年， ...

泸州老窖"重回前三"的突围战，越来越棘手了。 交出十年最差成绩单 2025年4月27日，泸州老窖发布2024年年度报告及2025年一季度业绩。数据显示，这家曾以年均20%净利润增速领跑行业的白酒巨头，在2024年遭遇"失 速"：营收同比仅微增3.19%至311.96亿元，净利润增速断崖式下滑至1.71%（134.73亿元），扣非净利润增速亦不足2%（134亿元）。2025年一季度，颓势 未改，营收、净利润增速进一步降至1.78%和0.41%。 根据财报，泸州老窖的系列酒销量增速也处于放缓态势。2024年公司白酒销量合计10.38万吨，同比增长7.77%，相较于上一年增速11.71%有所放缓。 | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 31. 196. 248. 208. 33 | 30, 233, 301, 388. 26 | 3.19% | 25, 123, 563, 271. 62 | | 归属于上市公司股东 | 13, 472, 986, 476. 01 | 13, 246, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its fundamentals, with expectations for improvement in the future [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.17 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 7 billion yuan, which represents 105% of the net profit for the period [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.7 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year [5][8] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a decline of 52.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 11.1 billion yuan, down 31.9% year-on-year, and the net profit was 3.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.9% year-on-year [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor revenue in 2024 was 28.2 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of -16% and +4%, respectively [9] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 24.3 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the ordinary liquor segment achieved 3.9 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [9] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.1%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][12] - The company has increased its sales and management expense ratios to 19.1% and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting a rise in competitive pressures [9] Future Projections - The company expects a slight revenue increase in 2025 to 28.97 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 6.7 billion yuan [8][12] - The estimated net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 6.9 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [8][12] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders through dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio despite the decline in profits [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 101.97 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 28.88 billion and 6.67 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 33.4% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant drop in revenue to 1.36 billion RMB, down 52.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.91 billion RMB [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 11.07 billion and 3.64 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 39.9% respectively. The overall performance was below previous expectations due to intensified competition in the mid-range and sub-premium segments [1][4]. - The company is proactively adjusting its product offerings and channel strategies to focus on long-term healthy development, despite facing external pressures that may continue to impact sales in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from mid-to-high-end and regular liquor was 24.32 billion and 3.93 billion RMB, with gross margins decreasing by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points to 78.7% and 45.3% respectively. Revenue from domestic and external markets was 12.75 billion and 15.50 billion RMB, down 11.4% and 14.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points, attributed to a decline in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products. The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 75.6%, with net profit margin decreasing to 32.9% [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has initiated inventory reduction measures in the first quarter of 2025. New products have been launched to fill market gaps, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing product offerings [2][3]. - The external environment is expected to remain challenging in the short term, but there is optimism for a gradual recovery in industry demand, which could lead to improved performance [1][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 3.09 and 3.20 RMB, with a new estimate for 2027 at 3.36 RMB. The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 33 times [4][6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward by 22% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting anticipated challenges in sales performance and competitive pressures [4][13].