"贵酒"商标纠纷案迎来终审判决，*ST岩石被判赔超418万元，并停止使用"贵酒"名称。 10月9日，上海贵酒股份有限公司（*ST岩石，600696.SH）披露关于诉讼进展的公告称，公司于近日收 到江苏省高级人民法院下发的《民事判决书》（下称"判决书"）。根据判决书，在与贵州贵酒集团有限 公司（下称"贵州贵酒"）的侵害商标权纠纷一案中，*ST岩石被判决赔偿贵州贵酒经济损失及合理维权 费用共计418.847万元，并立即停止使用贵州贵酒有一定影响的企业名称"贵酒"。 *ST岩石终审败诉，被判赔超418万元 根据公告，此案为终审判决，*ST岩石为被告方，涉案金额为428.84万元。 关于诉讼的基本情况，公告提及，原告贵州贵酒诉被告上海贵酒酒业销售有限公司、贵州贵酿酒业有限 公司、*ST岩石、苏宁易购集团股份有限公司侵害商标权纠纷一案，江苏省南京市中级人民法院于2021 年7月13日作出一审判决。后贵州贵酒不服判决上诉至江苏省高级人民法院，江苏省高级人民法院于 2022年5月17日裁定撤销一审判决，发回江苏省南京市中级人民法院重审。后公司收到江苏省南京市中 级人民法院下发的《民事判决书》（（2022）苏01民初2135 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing intense competition characterized by brand wars, price wars, and banquet wars, with clear aroma liquor demonstrating strong potential to thrive through its unique characteristics and resilience [1] Capital Efficiency - The heavy asset nature of the liquor industry makes cash flow critical, and clear aroma liquor has a natural advantage in capital turnover due to its efficient production processes [2][4] - Clear aroma liquor can achieve relatively high base liquor output while maintaining quality, allowing for flexible adjustments that reduce fixed asset investment pressure [2] Quality Assurance - Quality is central to competition in the liquor industry, and clear aroma liquor's pure characteristics serve as a quality assurance mechanism [5][6] - The use of single main ingredient (sorghum) and low-temperature fermentation minimizes flavor fluctuations, while the fermentation process prevents contamination, ensuring a consistent flavor profile [5][6][8] Channel Penetration - Clear aroma liquor's versatile style provides a natural advantage in channel penetration, making it suitable for various consumption scenarios, from high-end business banquets to everyday dining [9][11] - The rise of younger consumer groups highlights the innovative potential of clear aroma liquor, which can easily adapt to new social drinking contexts [11] Cyclical Resilience - Clear aroma liquor's broad market appeal allows it to withstand cyclical fluctuations in the industry, covering a wide price range from high-end to mass-market products [12][14] - Historical events have shown that clear aroma liquor can quickly regain market trust and fill gaps during downturns, demonstrating its robust consumer base [14][15] Conclusion - In the ongoing competition within the white liquor industry, clear aroma liquor is building a strong defense across capital, quality, channel, and cyclical dimensions, showcasing both traditional craftsmanship and innovative adaptability [15]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the white liquor sector, including its classification, regulatory environment, economic factors, social influences, technological advancements, and market trends. Group 1: Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is defined and categorized based on different aroma types and price ranges [2][3] - The report outlines the authoritative data sources and statistical standards used for the research [2][3] Group 2: Macro Environment Analysis (PEST) - The regulatory framework for the white liquor industry includes various supervisory bodies and self-regulatory organizations [3][4] - Current national and local policies impacting the white liquor industry are summarized, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the liquor industry [3][4] - Economic indicators such as GDP growth, industrial output, and retail sales are analyzed to assess their impact on the white liquor market [4][5] Group 3: Market Supply and Demand - The report discusses the supply and demand characteristics of the white liquor market, including production capacity and sales volume [6][7] - It highlights the trends in import and export activities, detailing the scale and pricing of white liquor trade [6][7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics of the white liquor market are examined, including market share distribution among key players and brand rankings [8][9] - The report analyzes the market concentration and competitive forces using Porter's Five Forces model [8][9] Group 5: Investment and M&A Analysis - The investment landscape in the white liquor industry is explored, detailing funding sources, investment events, and trends in mergers and acquisitions [10][11] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities within the industry, including weak links in the supply chain and emerging market segments [10][11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The report forecasts the future of the white liquor industry, predicting production and revenue growth, as well as structural adjustments within the market [12][13] - It emphasizes the importance of cultural marketing and the potential for international market expansion [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent struggles of the leaders of the Chinese liquor industry, specifically Zhang Deqin of Kweichow Moutai and Zhang Liandong of Yanghe Brewery, highlighting their declining performance and market position [2][4][11]. Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai's chairman Zhang Deqin faced significant challenges shortly after taking office, with the price of Moutai liquor experiencing a sharp decline, leading to ongoing criticism of the company [4][6]. - Yanghe Brewery, under Zhang Liandong's leadership, saw revenue growth rates of 20.14% and 18.76% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, but faced a dramatic downturn in 2023 with a net profit loss of 187 million yuan [6][8]. - In 2024, Yanghe's revenue dropped by 12.83% year-on-year, and net profit plummeted by 33.37%, resulting in a loss of its position among the top three in the industry, overtaken by Shanxi Fenjiu [6][8]. Market Position - Yanghe Brewery's market position has deteriorated significantly, now ranking fifth in the industry, with the potential risk of being surpassed by Gujing Gongjiu [8][9]. - The company is facing increasing competition from established brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, which are aggressively capturing market share [9][10]. Challenges Faced - Yanghe Brewery is currently grappling with four major challenges: negative public sentiment, product quality concerns, ineffective management decisions, and marketing difficulties [9][10]. - The company's brand image has suffered due to widespread criticism, and management decisions, such as the launch of a new product line, have not been well received by the market [10]. Leadership Changes - Recent leadership changes at Yanghe Brewery, including the removal of Yang Weiguo from key positions, have raised questions about accountability and the future direction of the company [12][14]. - The article suggests that Zhang Liandong's time may be limited due to the company's poor performance and the scrutiny from local government [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has reported its worst performance in a decade, with revenue growth slowing significantly and net profit growth plummeting to a near standstill in 2024 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue reached 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 3.19%, while net profit grew by just 1.71% to 13.473 billion yuan [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed further decline, with revenue and net profit growth dropping to 1.78% and 0.41%, respectively [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 80.14% to 19.182 billion yuan [2] Sales and Market Dynamics - Luzhou Laojiao's sales volume for white liquor in 2024 was 103,761.06 tons, a growth of 7.77%, down from 11.71% the previous year [6][7] - The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor accounted for 88.43% of total revenue, but the overall net profit growth reached a ten-year low [3][5] - The company faced challenges with price inversion, particularly with its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, which saw its market price drop below 900 yuan per bottle, impacting dealer profit margins [10] Inventory and Cost Management - As of the end of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's inventory reached 13.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.24% [10][11] - The company managed to achieve slight net profit growth primarily through significant cost reductions, including a 10.97% decrease in sales expenses [5][10] Competitive Position - Luzhou Laojiao's market position has weakened, falling behind competitors like Yanghe and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a revenue gap widening from 11 billion yuan in 2022 to 17 billion yuan in 2023 [12][14] - The company has not met its strategic goal of returning to the top three in the industry, citing external market factors as a significant challenge [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its fundamentals, with expectations for improvement in the future [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.17 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 7 billion yuan, which represents 105% of the net profit for the period [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.7 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year [5][8] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a decline of 52.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 11.1 billion yuan, down 31.9% year-on-year, and the net profit was 3.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.9% year-on-year [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor revenue in 2024 was 28.2 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of -16% and +4%, respectively [9] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 24.3 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the ordinary liquor segment achieved 3.9 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [9] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.1%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][12] - The company has increased its sales and management expense ratios to 19.1% and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting a rise in competitive pressures [9] Future Projections - The company expects a slight revenue increase in 2025 to 28.97 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 6.7 billion yuan [8][12] - The estimated net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 6.9 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [8][12] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders through dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio despite the decline in profits [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 101.97 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 28.88 billion and 6.67 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 33.4% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant drop in revenue to 1.36 billion RMB, down 52.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.91 billion RMB [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 11.07 billion and 3.64 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 39.9% respectively. The overall performance was below previous expectations due to intensified competition in the mid-range and sub-premium segments [1][4]. - The company is proactively adjusting its product offerings and channel strategies to focus on long-term healthy development, despite facing external pressures that may continue to impact sales in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from mid-to-high-end and regular liquor was 24.32 billion and 3.93 billion RMB, with gross margins decreasing by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points to 78.7% and 45.3% respectively. Revenue from domestic and external markets was 12.75 billion and 15.50 billion RMB, down 11.4% and 14.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points, attributed to a decline in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products. The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 75.6%, with net profit margin decreasing to 32.9% [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has initiated inventory reduction measures in the first quarter of 2025. New products have been launched to fill market gaps, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing product offerings [2][3]. - The external environment is expected to remain challenging in the short term, but there is optimism for a gradual recovery in industry demand, which could lead to improved performance [1][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 3.09 and 3.20 RMB, with a new estimate for 2027 at 3.36 RMB. The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 33 times [4][6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward by 22% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting anticipated challenges in sales performance and competitive pressures [4][13].