近日，贵州茅台旗下核心单品茅台1935曝出大幅降价消息，其合同价从798元/瓶下调至668元/瓶，单瓶 降幅达130元，降幅超16%，再次让贵州茅台成为公众关注的焦点。 不仅如此，据中国酒业协会数据显示，茅台1935库存周转天数高达128天，远超白酒行业60天的健康周 转线。 从核心产品价格崩塌、渠道体系混乱，到消费需求萎缩与品牌金融属性褪色，这家白酒行业龙头正遭遇 多重挑战，昔日"白酒神话"光环是否褪色？增长逻辑又能否随着下调合同价而回归？ 三年时间的大起大落 作为贵州茅台寄予厚望的"千元酱酒新贵"，茅台1935自2022年上市之初便被赋予承接飞天茅台溢出需 求、开拓中端市场的重任，上市初期凭借配额制与限量抢购营造的稀缺感，价格一度被炒至1800元/ 瓶，成为经销商眼中的"香饽饽"。 然而短短三年时间，这款曾被视为"第二增长曲线"的核心单品，价格跌幅超60%，如今茅台1935不仅官 方合同价大幅下调，电商平台实际售价更是跌破630元/瓶，较巅峰期暴跌超65.3%，价格倒挂现象显 著。 而价格崩盘的背后，是茅台1935供需失衡的致命缺陷。为冲刺百亿销售目标，贵州茅台持续加大茅台 1935投放量，2024年茅台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, marking a significant decline of over 28% in the past six months, the largest drop in recent years [2][4]. Price Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has fluctuated significantly, with reports of daily price changes, including a drop to 1540 yuan per bottle and subsequent increases within the same day [2]. - As of December 12, 2025, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1485 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 1495 yuan for boxed products, marking the first time since 2013 that prices have fallen below the official guidance [2][4]. Historical Context - The last time Feitian Moutai prices were around 1500 yuan per bottle was in the first half of 2017, after which the industry experienced a prolonged upward trend [3]. - The cumulative price drop for loose bottles has reached 33.1% compared to the beginning of the year, with boxed products seeing a 33.7% decline [4]. Market Dynamics - High social inventory levels and promotional subsidies from e-commerce platforms have intensified price competition, with instances of prices as low as 1399 yuan per bottle on platforms like Pinduoduo [6]. - The "i Moutai" platform reported a 14.05% decline in tax-excluded revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year, with a significant 57.24% drop in the third quarter alone [6]. Company Actions - Guizhou Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 300.01 billion yuan, which may have influenced market expectations and price fluctuations [5]. - Following rumors of a supply halt to distributors and a reduction in non-standard product quotas, prices saw a brief rebound before stabilizing again [5].

Core Viewpoint - The leading Chinese liquor company Wuliangye is facing significant challenges, with its stock price halving from its peak and a substantial decline in revenue and profit, raising concerns about its future direction [2][5][19]. Financial Performance - As of December 17, Wuliangye's stock price was around 113 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 440.2 billion CNY and a dynamic P/E ratio of 15.48 [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Wuliangye reported a revenue of 609.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 10.26%, and a net profit of 215.11 billion CNY, down 13.72% [4][12]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a drastic drop in revenue to 81.74 billion CNY, a 52.66% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.19 billion CNY, down 65.62% [10][12]. Market Dynamics - Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of its flagship liquor, has seen a significant price drop, with wholesale prices falling to around 780 CNY, below the official price of 899 CNY [8][10]. - The overall liquor market is experiencing a structural adjustment, with a decline in both production and consumption, leading to excess capacity [16]. Consumer Behavior - The demand for traditional high-end liquor is weakening, particularly among younger consumers who prefer craft beers and whiskeys, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [10][16]. - The introduction of strict regulations on liquor consumption has further impacted sales, particularly in government and business settings [10][16]. Strategic Recommendations - Wuliangye should focus on stabilizing prices and clearing inventory by reducing reliance on distributors and enhancing direct sales [19]. - Innovation in product offerings to appeal to younger consumers, such as developing lower-alcohol options and modern packaging, is essential [19]. - Expanding into international markets could provide new growth opportunities, leveraging the brand's heritage and quality [21]. Financial Health - Despite recent challenges, Wuliangye maintains a relatively strong financial position with a low debt ratio of 19.26% and a solid cash flow situation [15][12]. - The company has committed to a high dividend payout ratio of at least 70% from 2024 to 2026, which may attract long-term investors [12][21].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a significant structural adjustment phase by 2025, with production and overall sales under pressure, while leading companies show relative resilience in revenue and profit [1][2][4] Group 1: Current Industry Status - In 2024, large-scale liquor enterprises are expected to produce approximately 4.145 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of about 1.8% year-on-year, while industry sales revenue is projected to reach approximately 796.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 5.3% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a further decline in production, with an estimated output of 1.032 million kiloliters, down about 7.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential eighth consecutive year of production decline [5] - The industry faces challenges such as high inventory levels and price inversion issues, with average inventory turnover days nearing 900 days, leading to declining operating profits for over half of the surveyed companies [8] Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Traditional consumption scenarios like banquets and business gatherings are shrinking, with consumers becoming more rational and favoring younger and diverse preferences, making volume expansion increasingly difficult [2][6] - The demand for traditional mid-to-high-end products is decreasing, while mid-to-low-end products and new categories (e.g., low-alcohol, flavored, easy-to-drink) are becoming the main sales drivers [6][7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The concentration of the industry is increasing, with the top six companies (CR6) accounting for 86% of total industry profits, up from about 55% in 2014, indicating a significant shift towards a more concentrated market [9] - High-end liquor continues to attract premium pricing due to demand from affluent consumers, while mid-to-low-end products focus on cost-effectiveness and adaptability to consumption scenarios [10] - Consumption scenarios are shifting from traditional settings to more personalized and fragmented experiences, emphasizing social media and community engagement [11] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Leading companies should consolidate their high-end product lines, optimize product and channel structures, and manage inventory effectively to prevent brand devaluation [14][15] - Regional and smaller enterprises should focus on local market penetration, product innovation tailored to local tastes, and diversify their marketing channels to connect directly with consumers [17][19] - Distributors need to transition from traditional wholesale models to service-oriented roles, emphasizing collaboration with manufacturers to share inventory pressures and enhance consumer engagement [20][21] Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2026, the industry is expected to continue its trend towards increased concentration, with high-end and super high-end products maintaining their market positions while mid-to-low-end products adapt to new consumer scenarios [32][33] - The industry is likely to see accelerated capital consolidation and resource integration, with mergers and acquisitions becoming a common strategy to enhance competitiveness and optimize supply chains [32][33]

Core Insights - Sichuan Liquor Group aims to achieve a revenue of 45 billion yuan and a profit tax of 3 billion yuan by 2030, positioning itself among the top players in China's liquor industry [3] - The company reported a revenue of 35.02 billion yuan in 2023, marking an 8.3% year-on-year increase, with a total profit of 609 million yuan [3] Group 1: Strategic Goals - The company has set a target of 38 billion yuan in revenue for 2024 [3] - The strategic focus is on "strengthening fundamentals and increasing efficiency" with a five-ring approach covering raw liquor, staple liquor, customized liquor, bulk liquor, and quality technology [3][5] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The staple liquor market is projected to exceed 150 billion yuan in revenue by 2024, with over 70% of sales coming from this category in the first half of 2025 [5] - The customized liquor market is expected to reach 100 billion yuan, supported by a new "Sichuan Liquor Customization" program that offers low barriers to entry and quick delivery [5][7] Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a shift towards personalized, youthful, and customized consumption in the liquor market, moving from brand-centric to emotional and shared experiences [7] - The bulk liquor market is anticipated to surpass 80 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [7] Group 4: Trust and Quality Assurance - Sichuan Liquor Group aims to become the leading supplier of bulk liquor in China by leveraging its full industry chain advantages and government quality endorsements [8] - The company plans to rebuild consumer trust in bulk liquor through transparency, standardization, and digitalization, ensuring quality and traceability [8]

Group 1 - The core objective of Chuanjiu Group is to achieve revenue exceeding 45 billion yuan and tax profits reaching 3 billion yuan by 2030, aiming to enter the "first echelon of Chinese liquor" [1] - The company has identified three development directions: staple liquor, bulk liquor, and customized liquor [3] - The staple liquor market is projected to exceed 150 billion yuan in 2024, with over 70% of sales coming from staple liquor products in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant growth opportunity [3] Group 2 - The bulk liquor market is expected to surpass 80 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [3] - Chuanjiu Group aims to establish itself as a benchmark for brand development in the bulk liquor sector [3] - The customized liquor market is anticipated to reach 100 billion yuan, with the company having developed a "Chuanjiu Custom" app to facilitate quick custom orders [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in performance among many companies, particularly in the white liquor segment, as evidenced by recent financial reports and changing consumer preferences [1][3][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Among 20 listed liquor companies, only 6, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, reported growth, while 15 experienced declines, with some showing significant drops in net profit [1]. - Moutai, the industry leader, has seen its growth rate fall to single digits for the first time in nearly a decade, with the price of its 53-degree Feitian Moutai dropping nearly one-third in the past year and close to 50% over the last two years [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Trends - The overall liquor production has been declining for eight consecutive years, dropping from 13.58 million tons in 2016 to 4.14 million tons in 2024, a decrease of over 60% [2]. - The inventory of 20 A-share liquor companies is close to 4 million tons in 2024, indicating that even without production for four years, there would still be sufficient supply in the market [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Young consumers show low acceptance of white liquor, with a survey indicating that only 19% of individuals aged 20 to 35 prefer white liquor, compared to other alcoholic beverages [12]. - The number of large-scale white liquor enterprises in China is projected to decrease to 887 by mid-2025, down by over 100 from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Historical Context and Policy Impact - The white liquor industry has undergone significant changes since the 1989 market liberalization, with various marketing strategies leading to rapid growth until recent policy changes and market dynamics began to impact consumption [7][8]. - The introduction of regulations in 2012 aimed at curbing public spending has drastically reduced the share of government-related consumption in the white liquor market, leading to a significant drop in stock prices and sales [8][9]. Group 5: Industry Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to changing consumer preferences, liquor companies are launching new products, including low-alcohol and cross-category beverages, to attract younger consumers [12]. - The international market remains a potential growth area, with Chinese liquor exports reaching 8.31 million liters in the first half of 2025, representing only 0.04% of domestic production [12].

Core Insights - The latest A-share semi-annual report indicates that the total revenue of 20 listed liquor companies is 241.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.86 billion yuan, or approximately 0.86% [1] - The liquor industry may have reached a turning point with both production and sales declining, as production has decreased from 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024, a cumulative decline of 69.5% [1] - Despite the decline in production, the sales revenue of A-share listed liquor companies has shown a slow growth trend, indicating a structural adjustment in the industry [1] Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the number of large-scale liquor enterprises decreased to 887, a reduction of over 100 companies year-on-year; production was 1.9159 million kiloliters, down 5.8%; sales revenue was 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%; and profit was 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% [4] - The overall performance of the liquor industry shows a significant decline in production, with only a slight increase in sales and a notable drop in profits [6] Company Insights - Six major companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, reported positive revenue growth, contributing 88% of the industry's revenue and 93% of its profits, while 14 listed liquor companies experienced negative revenue growth [3] - Some companies faced drastic revenue declines, such as ST Yanshi with an 85% drop and Jiu Gui Jiu with a 43% decrease; net profit declines were even more severe, with Jinzhongzi Liquor down 750.54% and Jiu Gui Jiu down 92% [3] - The leading companies' revenue and profit growth rates have also slowed, indicating a lack of sustained high growth momentum in the industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent regulation prohibiting alcohol in official receptions has sparked concerns in the liquor market, but experts believe its impact on the Chinese liquor industry, particularly on Moutai, will be limited due to the already low proportion of government consumption in overall liquor sales [3][9][12]. Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The revised regulation from the Central Committee and State Council emphasizes frugality in official receptions, banning high-end dishes, cigarettes, and alcohol [4]. - Moutai's chairman, Zhang Deqin, expressed support for the new regulation, stating it encourages a return to the original purpose of Chinese liquor [7]. - Experts estimate that the proportion of government consumption in the liquor market is generally below 5%, indicating that the new regulation will not significantly affect overall liquor consumption [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the regulation, shares of major liquor companies, including Moutai, fell, with Moutai's stock closing at 1578.98 yuan per share, down 2.18% [5]. - The market's reaction reflects historical concerns, as the introduction of similar regulations in 2012 led to a significant downturn in the liquor industry [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The current cycle in the liquor industry is characterized by structural adjustments, with a focus on quality over quantity as companies adapt to changing consumer demands [13][16]. - Moutai's management emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence in the brand's value and quality, which are seen as essential for navigating the current market challenges [14]. - Experts predict that the industry will undergo a "shuffling" process, with weaker regional brands likely exiting the market, while stronger brands like Moutai will continue to thrive [16].