2026年开年，资本市场正处在多重变量交织的关键节点。银行短期大额存单利率迈入"0字头"，权益市 场维持高景气度的同时波动加剧，投资者在追求收益与规避风险之间的平衡需求愈发迫切。 "这种大的转换过程天然会带来市场的高波动。"贺剑强调，虽然市场存在转换不成功的可能性，但从目 前的观测指标而言，尚不能说明牛市结束。从市场本身而言，除了上涨较多的部分板块，A股仍有大量 的标的年内涨幅一般，估值也在历史较低位置，仍有绝对收益的机会，红利板块整体全年收益为负，在 利率处于较低位置的情况下，具有较好的配置和修复机会。 这一观点与天弘增益回报基金经理张馨元的判断不谋而合。张馨元通过观察股市流动性、宏观流动性、 美元流动性分析指出，国内流动性正逐步转化为广谱价格的回升，尽管面临外部环境的不确定性，但企 业订单、利润和产能的修复迹象已经显现。 股债博弈：攻守之道的极致平衡 基于对2026年市场的审慎乐观，天弘"固收+"团队在资产配置上展现出了高度的策略灵活性。 债券市场方面，天弘永利优佳基金经理张寓、曹渝在2025年四季报中表示，2026年国内市场流动风险偏 好的改善仍有需求，背后包括居民定存到期延续活化、跨境资本流入弹性。债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is expected to show moderate recovery in 2026, supported by ample liquidity and a gradual recovery in inventory and profit cycles, shifting the market narrative from valuation recovery to profit support [1][30]. Group 1: Overseas Macro - The global economy will continue to recover, with K-shaped economic characteristics persisting but narrowing. Major economies are projected to have varied GDP growth rates: the US at 2.4%, Eurozone at 1.0%, Japan at 0.8%, and emerging markets at 4.2% [2][30]. - Global inflation is on a downward trend, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, leading to a decrease in short-term rates [31][30]. Group 2: Domestic Macro - Fiscal policies are expected to drive investment recovery in major economic provinces, with a focus on infrastructure, manufacturing recovery, and a narrowing decline in real estate sales and investment [8][35]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to rise initially before stabilizing, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may see moderate increases. The profit cycle is gradually recovering, with improvements expected in various sectors [9][35]. Group 3: Liquidity Environment - A clear trend of global liquidity easing is established, with the Federal Reserve leading improvements in overseas liquidity. Domestic monetary policy is expected to align with fiscal measures, potentially leading to interest rate cuts [12][38]. - The supply of funds is likely to be dominated by institutional capital, with private equity funds potentially driving high-net-worth individuals back into equity allocations [14][38]. Group 4: Strategic Allocation Directions - The market is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit-driven dynamics in 2026, with Chinese assets still having room for valuation recovery [41][42]. - Key sectors to focus on include technology and advanced manufacturing, traditional export chains, and industries with increasing overseas revenue proportions [42][45]. - Future industry themes may include smart manufacturing, next-generation communications, advanced materials, and future energy solutions [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that if the Shanghai Composite Index can close above 4000 points by the end of 2025, it will instill strong confidence in the market, encouraging more incremental capital to enter in the future. The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical stocks, and resource stocks [2][3]. Economic Dimension - The economic landscape is characterized by accelerated structural transformation and the rise of new productive forces. Manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and retail consumption is recovering. High-end manufacturing sectors like smart devices and new energy vehicles are growing significantly faster than the overall economy, becoming key drivers of new productive forces [5]. Financial Dimension - Valuations are aligning with performance, showing significant horizontal space. Non-financial sectors' net profit grew by 1.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with technology sectors like AI (up 19.24%) and semiconductors (up 32.41%) showing remarkable profitability. A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, with financial and infrastructure sectors still having safety margins [5]. Policy Dimension - The policy environment is focused on stabilizing expectations and increasing incremental capital. Reforms in the capital market, such as raising the equity investment cap for insurance funds to 50%, and optimizing delisting and dividend mechanisms, are enhancing investment functionality. The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes support for new industries like AI and commercial aerospace [5]. Capital Dimension - Continuous inflow of capital is observed, with insurance funds increasing their equity investments to over 4.7 trillion yuan, adding more than 600 billion yuan in 2025. There is ample room for growth, as evidenced by a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits and a 2.14 trillion yuan increase in non-bank deposits, with funds entering the market through ETFs and mutual funds [6]. Industry Dimension - The dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors is evident. In technology growth, there is a surge in demand for AI computing power, storage, and commercial aerospace driven by policy support. In cyclical sectors, the supply-demand gap for industrial metals like copper and aluminum is widening, with expectations of a 150,000-ton shortfall in refined copper in 2026 [6]. Company Dimension - Overall profitability is improving, showcasing resilience. Leading companies in innovation-driven sectors, such as CATL, are achieving high capacity utilization rates close to 90%, with technological breakthroughs driving down costs [7]. Outlook for 2026 - Multiple brokerages express optimism for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a continuation of the slow bull market. The core driving logic is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit support, with anticipated earnings growth of 5% to 12% [9][10]. The recovery of PPI is seen as a key factor that will drive nominal GDP growth and improve overall profitability in the market [11]. Key Investment Themes - Key investment themes include technology growth led by AI and hard technology, with a focus on areas like optical modules and computing chips. The cyclical and resource sectors are also expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with industrial metals and energy sectors showing potential for cash flow improvement and high dividend yields [12].