2026年开年，资本市场正处在多重变量交织的关键节点。银行短期大额存单利率迈入"0字头"，权益市 场维持高景气度的同时波动加剧，投资者在追求收益与规避风险之间的平衡需求愈发迫切。 "这种大的转换过程天然会带来市场的高波动。"贺剑强调，虽然市场存在转换不成功的可能性，但从目 前的观测指标而言，尚不能说明牛市结束。从市场本身而言，除了上涨较多的部分板块，A股仍有大量 的标的年内涨幅一般，估值也在历史较低位置，仍有绝对收益的机会，红利板块整体全年收益为负，在 利率处于较低位置的情况下，具有较好的配置和修复机会。 这一观点与天弘增益回报基金经理张馨元的判断不谋而合。张馨元通过观察股市流动性、宏观流动性、 美元流动性分析指出，国内流动性正逐步转化为广谱价格的回升，尽管面临外部环境的不确定性，但企 业订单、利润和产能的修复迹象已经显现。 股债博弈：攻守之道的极致平衡 基于对2026年市场的审慎乐观，天弘"固收+"团队在资产配置上展现出了高度的策略灵活性。 债券市场方面，天弘永利优佳基金经理张寓、曹渝在2025年四季报中表示，2026年国内市场流动风险偏 好的改善仍有需求，背后包括居民定存到期延续活化、跨境资本流入弹性。债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of China's consumer sector has reached a global low, presenting significant investment opportunities in specific segments and companies, as highlighted in UBS's latest report [1][2]. Valuation Insights - The consumer sector's valuation is low both historically and in global comparisons, with the 12-month forward P/E ratio for discretionary consumption approximately 40% lower than the global average, and the ratio for staples at a 10% discount [2]. Performance Metrics - The MSCI China discretionary consumption index has recorded a 35% year-to-date return, aligning closely with the 38% increase in the MSCI China index, indicating higher investor expectations in travel and entertainment sectors compared to the 10% rise in staples [3]. Business Model Innovations - UBS emphasizes the importance of business model innovation for identifying Alpha opportunities, particularly through the adoption of asset-light franchise models, which are helping some restaurant brands overcome traditional expansion barriers [3]. - Yum China is highlighted as a case study, with UBS predicting its store count could reach 30,000 by 2030, driven by lower-capital investment store formats that significantly reduce entry barriers for franchisees [3]. - UBS has also raised the long-term potential for Mixue Ice Cream to 80,000 stores, citing significant opportunities in lower-tier cities [3]. New Market Opportunities - UBS identifies structural growth potential in new markets, such as whiskey and trendy toys, as key themes for creating Alpha [4]. - The whiskey market in China is experiencing a shift in consumer preferences, particularly among women and young middle-class individuals in lower-tier cities, with UBS upgrading Baijiu Holdings to a "buy" rating due to its advantageous position in this growing segment [4]. - Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the U.S. [4]. Resilience in Pet Economy - The pet food market in China is projected to grow by 8.5% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing the overall pet industry growth, with increasing consumer confidence in domestic brands providing a solid growth foundation for local leaders like Zhongchong Co., which UBS rates as a "buy" [5].

比特币矿企正在迎来双重利好，其股价因加密货币价格上涨和向人工智能（AI）基础设施的战略转型 而飙升，这不仅提振了短期市场情绪，更可能从根本上重塑其长期投资价值。 目前，许多比特币矿企的估值逻辑仍主要基于其挖矿业务，但市场可能低估了其作为"电力资产"的内在 价值。摩根士丹利强调，"企业价值/瓦特"（EV/Watt）是评估此类公司价值的一个关键但被市场忽视的 指标。 数据显示，美国比特币矿企拥有约6.3吉瓦已投入运营的大型站点，另有2.5吉瓦在建产能。报告指出， 许多矿企当前的"企业价值/瓦特"远低于其作为数据中心基础设施的潜在价值，这为投资者提供了一个 显著的价值错配和潜在的Alpha机会。 受比特币价格近期高点以及业务多元化消息的提振，多家比特币矿企股票在周二盘前交易中大幅上涨。 其中，Bitfarms和Iren领涨，涨幅分别达到11.85%和11.60%；Hive Digital Technologies上涨6.82%， TeraWulf上涨3.68%，CleanSpark和BitFuFu也录得不同程度的涨幅。 这一轮上涨的直接驱动力显而易见。一方面，比特币价格的走强直接提升了矿企挖矿业务的盈利能力和 资产 ...