Core Viewpoint - The report on Jinhuijiu (603919) indicates a significant adjustment in the liquor industry, with a downward revision of the target price to 22.0 yuan and a recommendation to hold the stock [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by "policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and stock competition" [2] - In Q1 2025, liquor production continued to shrink, with a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, and the main sales price range has shifted from 300-500 yuan to 100-300 yuan [2] - Many liquor companies are experiencing pressure on revenue and profits in Q2 2025, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing ongoing challenges [2] Company Performance - Jinhuijiu's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +11.0% for revenue and +9.9% for net profit from 2015 to 2024 [2] - The company aims for total revenue of 3.28 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year [2] - The product structure has shifted towards high-end products, with the high-end series (above 300 yuan) increasing its share from less than 15% in 2022 to 18.8% in 2024 [3] Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue growth was only +1.1%, significantly down from +16.1% in 2024, while external revenue grew by +9.5%, slower than the +14.7% growth in 2024 [3] - The company is focusing on refined channel operations in the domestic market and strengthening banquet scene binding to avoid inventory buildup [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have a dividend payout ratio of 64.0% in 2024, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, the highest since its listing [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.3 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 400 million, 500 million, and 500 million yuan [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 22 yuan for 2025, based on a 27x price-to-earnings ratio [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinhui Liquor with a target price of Rmb 22.00, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 18.92 [2][5]. Core Insights - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, consumption structure transformation, and intensified competition. The production in Q1 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with a shift in consumer focus towards lower price bands [3][11]. - Jinhui Liquor has set a pragmatic growth target for FY25, aiming for total revenue of Rmb 3.28 billion (+8.6% year-on-year) and net profit of Rmb 410 million (+5.2% year-on-year), aligning with industry trends [3][14]. - The company's product structure is evolving, with a notable increase in the high-end segment (over Rmb 300) from less than 15% in FY22 to 18.8% in FY24, while the low-end segment is contracting significantly [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Jinhui Liquor are Rmb 3.3 billion in 2025, Rmb 3.7 billion in 2026, and Rmb 4.3 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of Rmb 400 million, Rmb 500 million, and Rmb 500 million [5][14]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 60%, with a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) from 11.7% in 2025 to 13.5% in 2027 [10][14]. - The dividend payout ratio for FY24 is projected at 64.0%, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, marking a record high since the company’s listing [5][14]. Market Dynamics - The provincial market for Jinhui Liquor showed a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly down from 16.1% in FY24, while the extra-provincial market grew by 9.5% [4][13]. - The company is focusing on refining its channel operations within the provincial market and expanding its presence in Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang as core bases for growth [4][13].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·医药商业 一心堂（002727） 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评：利润短 期承压，省外扩张成效显著 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,380 | 18,000 | 20,189 | 22,307 | 24,490 | | 同比（%） | (0.29) | 3.57 | 12.16 | 10.49 | 9.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 549.44 | 114.14 | 642.45 | 717.17 | 797.64 | | 同比（%） | (45.60) | (79.23) | 462.87 | 11.63 | 11.22 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.94 | 0.19 | 1.10 | 1.22 | 1.36 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.24 | 73.37 | 13.03 | 11.68 | 10.50 | ...