编 | 南风 "不再像往年那样为中秋国庆备满库存，而是谨慎地等待着市场信号的明确。"这是2025年四川高端白酒市场的真实写照…… "今年6-7月几乎是2013年以来动销最差的2个月，"一位四川高端酒经销商坦言。尽管8月开始宴席订单有所回暖，郊县需求相对旺盛，但9月宴席用酒量仍 同比下降约20%，预计中秋国庆销售同比下滑20-30%。 该经销商预测，与2025年上半年白酒行业总产量同比下降5.8%，利润总额同比下降10.93%的趋势一脉相承…… 1 白酒行业深度调整"量价齐跌"成新常态 2025年上半年，白酒行业正式告别"量减价增"的增长逻辑，转向"量价齐跌"的新阶段。今年上半年，行业总产量同比下降5.8%，利润总额876.87亿元，同 比下降10.93%。 "白酒消费高地"失守？四川市场深陷行业调整漩涡。 文 | 卖酒狼团队 "库存压力仍是白酒行业最严峻的挑战！"一位业内资深人士直言，库存危机的根源在于行业长期粗放发展积累的结构性矛盾。 首先，产能扩张与市场需求脱节是核心诱因——企业为争夺市场份额盲目扩产，而实际消费量受宏观经济放缓、年轻群体偏好转变等因素持续萎缩。 其次，过度依赖压货式增长模式加剧了危机，部 ...

珍酒李渡(06979)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.92%，报8.83港元，成交额1.2亿港元。 消息面上，白酒行业深度调整下，近日市场有传闻称，贵州茅台或下调今年业绩目标。智通财经记者以投资者身份致电贵州茅台，公司证券部人士表示，目前公司未下调年度业绩目标，上半年公 值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"正式上市发布，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此 ...

来源：智通财经网 消息面上，白酒行业深度调整下，近日市场有传闻称，贵州茅台或下调今年业绩目标。智通财经记者以 投资者身份致电贵州茅台，公司证券部人士表示，目前公司未下调年度业绩目标，上半年公司已按计划 完成目标进度。太平洋证券发布研报称，根据渠道调研，8月以来行业整体终端动销有所恢复，但预计 中秋国庆动销同比仍将承压。 值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"正式上市发布，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴 向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此前指出，上半 年公司推出全新旗舰产品"大珍"，定位协同珍15、珍30系列，高质价比有望构筑珍酒第三增长曲线。 珍酒李渡(06979)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.92%，报8.83港元，成交额1.2亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite rumors of a performance target adjustment, Guizhou Moutai has not changed its annual performance goals and has completed 47.99% of its revenue target for 2025 in the first half of the year [2][6] - Guizhou Moutai's revenue growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 9%, translating to about 189.82 billion yuan [3][6] - The company reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, with net profit reaching 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [5][6] Group 2 - The company has faced challenges due to industry adjustments and changing consumer trends, but it has maintained market stability through optimized strategies and product placements [3][4] - Recent data shows that the wholesale price of 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai has dropped to 1,770 yuan, a decline of over 20% compared to its initial price when the platform launched [3][5] - As of September 22, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1,453.35 yuan per share, reflecting a 3.37% decline year-to-date [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a recovery in sales after a prolonged downturn, driven by seasonal demand and price adjustments, although the overall market remains in a deep adjustment phase [2][9][11]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the second quarter, the majority of liquor companies reported a decline in both revenue and net profit, with only a few exceptions like Guizhou Moutai and Tianyoude Liquor showing growth [4][6][11]. - The overall performance of the liquor industry reflects a return to normalcy after a period of rapid growth, with the second quarter traditionally being a slow season for sales [7][11]. - The industry is currently facing challenges such as high inventory levels and reduced demand from business receptions, which have significantly impacted sales figures [8][10]. Group 2: Sales Recovery - August saw a notable increase in sales and shipment volumes compared to July, attributed to the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, as well as further price reductions [2][9]. - The recovery in sales is primarily driven by increased consumption during traditional events like graduation and wedding banquets, alongside a rise in demand for mid-range and mass-market products [9][10]. - Despite the sales rebound, the industry is still expected to face challenges in matching last year's performance levels, with many analysts predicting continued declines in overall market demand [11][12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The liquor sector has seen a rebound in stock prices over the past month, with the industry index rising by 12.32% from early August to mid-September [12]. - Analysts suggest that while there is optimism regarding a potential turning point for premium liquor prices, the overall industry sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing adjustments and competitive pressures [13]. - The current market environment is characterized by a focus on inventory clearance and price adjustments, with many companies adopting strategies to manage their sales and distribution channels effectively [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of adjustment, with sales and distribution showing improvement in August due to seasonal demand and price adjustments [1][8]. Industry Performance - After nearly three months of downward adjustment, the baijiu circulation and sales have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in food and beverage prices in August [1]. - The sales volume and revenue in August significantly increased compared to July, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai reporting a notable rebound in sales [1][8]. - The second quarter of the year saw a deep adjustment phase for the baijiu industry, with 20 listed companies reporting that 13 experienced declines in both revenue and net profit [3][4]. Company Performance - In the second quarter, only Kweichow Moutai and Tianyoude Liquor reported year-on-year revenue growth, while most other companies, including Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, faced significant declines [4][5]. - The second quarter is typically a slow season for baijiu companies, but this year, the "off-season effect" returned due to high channel inventory and ineffective sales strategies [6]. - The impact of policy changes, such as the "ban on alcohol" for official receptions, has also contributed to the decline in performance for many companies [6][7]. Market Trends - The baijiu market is currently in a "clearing inventory" phase, with ongoing price reductions leading to increased sales volume, particularly in the mid-range and popular price segments [9]. - Despite the recent sales rebound, the overall market is still expected to decline compared to last year, with analysts predicting a double-digit decrease during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [9][10]. - The baijiu sector has seen a significant rebound in stock prices over the past month, with the index rising by 12.32% from August 1 to September 16, although it remains below last year's peak [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming holiday season may provide a window for price stabilization and potential recovery for premium liquor brands, but the overall industry may still face challenges [11][12]. - The current market sentiment is driven by a combination of low valuations and speculative investments, rather than a genuine recovery in industry health [12].

Core Viewpoint - Shunxin Agriculture reported a challenging first half of the year, with significant declines in revenue and net profit due to pressures in both its pork and liquor businesses [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 4.593 billion yuan and a net profit of 173 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 19.24% and 59.09%, respectively [1]. - The liquor business generated approximately 3.606 billion yuan in revenue, down 23.25% from the same period last year, with its revenue share decreasing from 82.61% to 78.51% [4]. Business Segments - The pork business reported revenue of 889 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, but accounted for less than 20% of total revenue. The slaughtering segment contributed 782 million yuan, while breeding sales were 107 million yuan [3]. - The gross margin for the pork business fell to 0.01%, a decrease of 2.52 percentage points from the previous year, indicating minimal profit potential [3]. Liquor Business Challenges - The liquor segment faced significant challenges, with sales volumes declining due to a deep adjustment in the industry. The company’s high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues all fell compared to the previous year [6][7]. - High-end liquor revenue was approximately 529 million yuan, down 12.32%, while mid-range liquor revenue decreased by 21.87% to 498 million yuan, and low-end liquor revenue dropped by 25.41% to 2.578 billion yuan [7][10]. Market Competition - The low-end liquor segment, which accounts for over 70% of Shunxin's liquor revenue, has limited profit margins, with a gross margin of 36.91% compared to 42.12% for mid-range and 69.32% for high-end products [10]. - Increased competition from leading liquor companies launching light bottle products has further eroded Shunxin's market share, with brands like Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao actively targeting younger consumers [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product innovation, marketing innovation, and brand expansion, while also enhancing its digital marketing efforts through partnerships with platforms like Alibaba [6]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness has not met expectations, as all categories of liquor revenue have fallen short of last year's figures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid introduction of new products by liquor companies is a proactive strategy to combat shrinking consumption and intense competition in the existing market [1][10]. Group 1: Product Launches by Guizhou Moutai - Guizhou Moutai has launched over 10 new products in the past two months, marking an unprecedented frequency in the industry [2][4]. - Notable product launches include the Taiyuan Red health wine on August 4, a limited edition commemorative wine on August 8, and the Moutai 1935 premium version on August 25 [4]. - The company has also introduced a series of cultural products and new packaging formats, indicating a strong push for innovation [4][10]. Group 2: Other Brands Following Suit - Other liquor brands have also begun to introduce new products, albeit in smaller quantities, reflecting a rare trend of concentrated innovation across the industry [5][10]. - Brands like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have launched new products, including a craft beer and upgraded versions of existing offerings [7][10]. - The trend includes a focus on low-alcohol products and light bottle designs, catering to younger consumers and the mass market [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The recent surge in product launches is a response to significant market pressures, including regulatory changes and declining consumer interest [10][11]. - Companies are adopting strategies to stimulate consumer demand through product innovation and enhanced online sales channels [10][11]. - The emphasis on light bottle products and low-alcohol options indicates a shift towards appealing to younger demographics and expanding market reach [11].

格隆汇9月12日｜据南方日报，近日，白酒上市公司均已披露半年报，增速下滑已成不争的事实。22家 白酒上市公司中，仅6家维持了营收利润正增长，行业在深度调整中承压前行。面对当前困境，酒企正 积极寻求通过年轻化和低度化转型来突破。即时零售、宴席市场和降度成为上半年白酒行业三大关键 词。这是一剂"猛药"还是一道"良方"，尚需时间验证。 白酒行业整体处于"三期叠加"的深度调整期。在 22家白酒上市公司中，上半年仅6家维持了营收利润正增长。这6家企业分别是贵州茅台、五粮液、山西 汾酒、古井贡酒、老白干酒和金徽酒。这几家企业中，部分是头部酒企，部分是区域龙头。这表明了， 尽管近年来白酒行业集中度不断上升，但仍存在结构性机会。 ...

近日，白酒上市公司均已披露半年报，增速下滑已成不争的事实。22家白酒上市公司中，仅6家维持了 营收利润正增长，行业在深度调整中承压前行。面对当前困境，酒企正积极寻求通过年轻化和低度化转 型来突破。即时零售、宴席市场和降度成为上半年白酒行业三大关键词。这是一剂"猛药"还是一道"良 方"，尚需时间验证。 白酒行业整体处于"三期叠加"的深度调整期。在22家白酒上市公司中，上半年仅 6家维持了营收利润正增长。这6家企业分别是贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、老白干酒和金 徽酒。这几家企业中，部分是头部酒企，部分是区域龙头。这表明了，尽管近年来白酒行业集中度不断 上升，但仍存在结构性机会。（南方日报 ） ...