浙商证券研报指出，洋河股份25Q1-3归母净利润39.75亿（同比-53.66%）；25Q3归母净利润-3.69亿元 （24Q3为6.31亿元）。持续出清，静待改善。公司24年依托60余万吨老酒储量全面发起真年份战略，今 年进一步推出了第七代海之蓝和三年陈洋河大曲，并伴随新董事长顾宇上任，静待行业改善及改革成效 显现，关注高分红下的高股息。考虑到当前核心产品销售依旧承压，渠道库存消化下报表端表现弱于动 销。考虑到政策催化下，白酒需求有望恢复，叠加公司治理或有望改善，公司具备高弹性，且公司股息 率较高，维持"买入"评级。 ...

洋河股份(002304) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 04 日 持续出清，静待改善 ——洋河股份 25Q3 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 净利率下滑明显，现金流阶段性承压 1）25Q1-3 毛/净利率同比-2.71/-9.26pct 至 71.1%/21.90%，25Q3 毛/净利率同比- 12.72/-24.84pct 至 53.52%/-11.32%。 2）25Q1-3 销售/管理（含研发）费用率同比+4.62/+2.35pct 至 18.80%/7.71%， 25Q3 销售/管理（含研发）费用率同比+10.23/+3.37pct 至 37.99%/13.85%， 3）25Q3 末合同负债同比变动+14.58 亿元至 64.24 亿元。 4）25Q1-3 经营性净现金流 9.66 亿元，同比-72.06%。25Q3 经营性净现金流 3.50 亿元，同比-75.25%。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 考虑到当前核心产品销售依旧承压，渠道库存消化下报表端表现弱于动销，我们 调整盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司收入增速分别为-30.54%/3.19%/6.97%；归 母净利润增速为-40.31%/2.48%/1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a focus on long-term growth strategies. The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor are under pressure, and both domestic and external markets are in a period of adjustment [2][4] - The company has significantly increased its national advertising expenses, which has led to a temporary strain on cash flow. The gross and net profit margins have decreased year-on-year [3] - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to benefit from policy catalysts that may restore liquor demand, and it has a high dividend yield, indicating potential for recovery [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 288.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, with a net profit of 66.73 billion yuan, down 33.37% [10] - For 2025, the revenue growth is projected to decline by 13.23%, with a net profit decrease of 14.63% [12] Product and Market Performance - The company's mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues for 2024 were 243.17 billion yuan and 39.31 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.79% and 0.49% [2] - The sales volume of liquor decreased by 16.30%, while the average price per ton increased by 3.93% [2] Cost and Expenses - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 2.09 percentage points to 73.16%, and the net profit margin fell by 7.16 percentage points to 23.09% [3] - The company increased its advertising and promotional expenses significantly, with national advertising costs rising by 96.10% to 800 million yuan [3] Cash Flow and Dividends - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 46.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.49% year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 25.36 billion yuan, down 47.72% [3] - The total dividend for 2024 was 7 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 104.9% and a dividend yield of 6.8% [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting revenue growth rates of -13.23%, 2.65%, and 3.27% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.78, 3.94, and 4.11 yuan per share, respectively [4]

Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - The company is focusing on enhancing brand strength, channel profitability, and inventory reduction amidst a complex external environment and intensified industry competition [1] - The core fundamentals of the company remain unchanged, with strong brand recognition and a well-structured sales organization [2] - The strategy for deep nationalization remains intact, with a focus on key regional markets such as Shandong and Henan, while also strengthening emerging markets like Inner Mongolia [2] Group 2: Product Performance and Development - The main product structure is stable, with "Hai Zi Lan" and "Meng Zi Lan" being the core products, while "Tian Zi Lan" and "Shui Jing Ban Meng Zi Lan" are more affected by market fluctuations [2] - The "Meng Zi Lan M6+" product is a leading brand in the mid-to-high-end price range, with efforts to manage supply and demand issues [3] - The company is actively implementing the "True Vintage" strategy to leverage production capacity advantages and enhance product quality [4] Group 3: Distributor and Market Engagement - The company is committed to cultivating large distributors and has established a tiered system for distributor classification to support growth [4] - The seventh generation of "Hai Zi Lan" is set to launch in the first half of the year, targeting the 100 yuan price range with a focus on youthful and fashionable branding [4]