11月25日的风裹着寒意往骨头缝里钻。 这两年的业绩报表摊开来看，满是熬人的冷清，2024年营收跌了12.83%，只剩288.76亿元，净利润直接少了三成，第四季度更是摔出上市以来首次季度亏 损。 2025年前三季度依旧没缓过来，营收、净利润降幅还在三成以上。 曾经稳稳站着行业老三的位置，市值莫名就跌出了前五，连江苏大本营的市场，都被竞品悄悄啃走了一块，那种落差不是一下子的疼，是慢慢渗进来的委 屈，磨得人没了脾气。 手里的账户数字跟着往下掉，从曾经268元的高点跌到如今不足70元，两千多亿市值蒸发得没了踪影，心里那点底气像被寒风刮得发晃，忍不住琢磨，守 着洋河这些日子，怎么就熬成了这般模样，往后的日子，还能等来暖意吗？ 今年的冬天冷，经济行情也透着股凉劲，消费市场没了往日的热闹， 白酒 行业跟着遭了殃，洋河自然躲不过。 打开A股盘面， 洋河股份 的绿色K线又往下压了一截，65.71元的收盘价，比前一天少了1.19%，五千多万主力资金悄悄流走，屏幕亮着的光映着一张张沉 默的脸。 更别说洋河手里的家底，7万口名优窖池，100万吨储酒规模，70万吨老酒存着，这些攒了十几年甚至几十年的东西，就像家里地窖里存着的余粮， ...

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

Core Insights - Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.975 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 53.66% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a net profit loss of 369 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 158.38% [1] - The company is committed to deep adjustments and comprehensive reforms while maintaining its market investment and brand activities [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.975 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1] - The Q3 2025 loss of 369 million yuan indicates ongoing financial challenges since the fourth quarter of 2024 [1] Strategic Initiatives - Yanghe Co. continues to launch new products, including the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan and other brands, to maintain brand visibility [1] - The company focuses on solidifying its market presence in its home base of Suqian while expanding nationally, particularly targeting the surrounding markets [1] - The strategy includes enhancing organizational focus and resource allocation, with a special emphasis on talent acquisition [1] Market Positioning - As of November 7, 2025, the closing price was 69.46 yuan, with projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 at 29, 28, and 27 times respectively [1] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, indicating confidence in its long-term market strategy despite current challenges [1]

Core Insights - Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 18.09 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.975 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year, amidst a deep adjustment in the liquor industry [1] - The company is actively promoting inventory reduction and stabilizing core product prices to boost channel confidence [1][7] Group 1: Business Strategy - The core objectives of Yanghe include "inventory reduction, enhancing market potential, and stabilizing prices," which are being pursued through channel optimization and product upgrades [2] - Yanghe has implemented a "controlled quantity and stable price" strategy for its leading products, while also launching new products to target specific market segments [2][4] Group 2: Channel Development - The company is focusing on nurturing large distributors and penetrating the family banquet market and rural areas through initiatives like the "Large Distributor Cultivation Plan" [4] - Yanghe has restructured its profit distribution mechanism for distributors to address the issue of compressed profits in the industry [4] Group 3: Brand and Marketing Activities - Yanghe has conducted various brand activities to strengthen consumer connections and promote terminal sales, including events targeting younger demographics [5] - Despite short-term promotional activities increasing expense ratios, these efforts are expected to accelerate inventory clearance and lay a foundation for future growth [5] Group 4: Product and Inventory Management - The company has effectively reduced channel inventory, achieving double-digit inventory clearance this year, with contract liabilities reaching 6.424 billion yuan, reflecting a 29% year-on-year increase [7] - The main products have maintained stable prices, indicating strong confidence from distributors [7] Group 5: Competitive Positioning - Yanghe possesses significant advantages in brand and production capacity, being ranked third in brand value within the liquor industry and fifth globally [8] - The company has a comprehensive product layout across all price ranges, supported by its high-end and mid-range offerings [10] Group 6: National Expansion and Channel Innovation - Yanghe has established a broad offline channel network and is continuously enhancing its channel penetration and operational efficiency [11] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its channel innovation capabilities to release performance elasticity once liquor consumption enters an upward cycle [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment and optimization process, demonstrating a strong commitment to reform [5] - Despite a decline in revenue, the company is maintaining its market investment and brand-building activities [5][6] - The company has faced significant challenges in the high-end product segment due to regulatory impacts, but its mid-range products show resilience [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.26%, and a net profit of 3.98 billion yuan, down 53.66% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 3.30 billion yuan, a decline of 29.01% year-on-year, with a net profit loss of 369 million yuan, marking a significant drop of 158.38% year-on-year [2] Inventory and Cost Management - The company is focused on inventory reduction, with indications of improvement in inventory levels despite a revenue decline [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 53.52%, down 12.72% year-on-year, influenced by the introduction of lower-margin products and increased costs [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively engaging in brand-building and consumer interaction through various marketing initiatives, including sponsorships and product launches [5][6] - The company is committed to strengthening its core markets while expanding its national presence, focusing on enhancing distributor capabilities and reducing channel pressure [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with projected revenues of 19.05 billion yuan, 18.74 billion yuan, and 18.87 billion yuan respectively, and net profits of 3.56 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 2.36 yuan, 2.44 yuan, and 2.57 yuan for the respective years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that Yanghe Brewery's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2025 is 3.975 billion (down 53.66% year-on-year), with Q3 showing a net loss of 369 million (compared to a profit of 631 million in Q3 2024) [1] Financial Performance - The company is experiencing a significant decline in net profit, with a 53.66% year-on-year decrease for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss of 369 million, contrasting with a profit of 631 million in the same quarter of the previous year [1] Strategic Initiatives - Yanghe Brewery plans to leverage its over 600,000 tons of aged liquor inventory to launch a true vintage strategy in 2024 [1] - The company has introduced new products, including the seventh generation of "Hai Zhi Lan" and the three-year aged "Yanghe Daqu" [1] Management Changes - The appointment of the new chairman, Gu Yu, is expected to bring about improvements in governance and operational performance [1] Market Outlook - The company is awaiting industry recovery and the effects of its reforms, with a focus on high dividends and a strong dividend yield [1] - Despite current sales pressures on core products, there is potential for demand recovery in the liquor market due to policy catalysts [1] - The company is considered to have high elasticity in its performance, which could benefit from improvements in governance and market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Co., Ltd. (Yanghe) reported a revenue of 18.09 billion and a net profit of 3.975 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, demonstrating strategic resilience and development flexibility amid challenges in the liquor industry [1] Financial Performance - Yanghe achieved a significant year-on-year increase of 77.92% in R&D investment, reflecting the company's commitment to product innovation and quality enhancement [3] - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 18.22%, well below the industry average of 32.41%, indicating a robust financial structure [4] - Yanghe's gross profit margin stands at 71.10%, despite a decline from the previous year, still surpassing the industry average of 67.32% [4] Industry Context - The national output of major liquor enterprises decreased by 9.90% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, indicating ongoing supply-demand rebalancing and competition restructuring within the industry [5] - Yanghe has identified 2024 as a year for corporate adjustment, focusing on long-term strategies and enhancing governance structures to support sustainable development [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively optimizing its product structure and expanding market channels while innovating marketing models to enhance its competitive capabilities [5] - Yanghe is engaging with shareholders and investors through various communication channels to foster understanding and support for its strategic direction [6] Future Outlook - Yanghe is positioned to leverage its internal adjustments and strategic initiatives to capitalize on potential growth opportunities as the consumption market recovers and industry competition evolves [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's net profit margin has significantly declined, and cash flow is under temporary pressure, with Q1-3 2025 gross/net profit margins down by 2.71/9.26 percentage points to 71.1%/21.90%, and Q3 2025 margins down by 12.72/24.84 percentage points to 53.52%/-11.32% [1] - The sales and management (including R&D) expense ratios have increased, with Q1-3 2025 ratios up by 4.62/2.35 percentage points to 18.80%/7.71%, and Q3 2025 ratios up by 10.23/3.37 percentage points to 37.99%/13.85% [1] - The company is expected to face continued pressure on core product sales, with revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 at -30.54%/3.19%/6.97% and net profit growth at -40.31%/2.48%/11.09% [2] Financial Summary - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.09 billion (down 34.26% YoY) and a net profit of 3.975 billion (down 53.66% YoY) [9] - The forecast for 2025 revenue is 20.056 billion, with a net profit of 3.983 billion, reflecting a decline of 30.54% and 40.31% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.64 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.69 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Nanjing Marathon is set to take place on November 16, with 30,000 runners participating, supported by the official sponsor Yanghe Co., Ltd, marking a significant event in the city known as the birthplace of marathon in China [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Nanjing Marathon has been successfully held for eight years since 2015 and has recently been awarded the "World Athletics Gold Label" status, elevating it to a top-tier global event [3]. - Yanghe Co., Ltd has been a long-time supporter of the Nanjing Marathon, celebrating the spirit of perseverance and passion through its products [6]. Group 2: Pre-Event Activities - A three-day Nanjing Marathon Expo will take place from November 13 to 15, featuring engaging activities such as "Citywide Search for '9'" and "Citywide Search for '7'" to enhance the experience for participants and spectators [7]. - Participants with race numbers ending in "9" or "7" can receive various gifts, including bottles of Yanghe's premium liquor, based on the specific number combinations [8][9]. Group 3: Brand Integration - Yanghe Co., Ltd aims to integrate sports spirit into its brand ethos, promoting a lifestyle that resonates with the values of marathon running and active living [12]. - The company has been involved in various sports events, including marathons and international competitions, showcasing its commitment to promoting a vibrant and active lifestyle [12].

Core Insights - The 2025 National Camping Conference was successfully launched in Nanjing, showcasing a blend of nature and leisure activities, with participation from nearly a thousand camping enthusiasts [1][3][6] - Yanghe's seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan played a significant role in enhancing the event experience, providing a unique atmosphere that combined the essence of nature with the enjoyment of their product [1][11] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was co-hosted by various governmental and sports organizations, emphasizing the promotion of outdoor activities and quality lifestyle [1] - The atmosphere at the event was lively, featuring performances, food, and creative markets, creating a joyful environment for attendees [3] Group 2: Participant Experience - 300 professional camping enthusiasts set up tents in a natural setting, creating a picturesque scene that highlighted a harmonious relationship with nature [6] - Attendees engaged in various outdoor activities, including real-life CS, frisbee, and obstacle courses, catering to both adults and children [3][6] Group 3: Brand Engagement - Yanghe's strategic partnership with the camping conference represents an innovative approach to scene marketing, aiming to connect with target consumers through outdoor leisure experiences [11] - The brand's product, a 240mL bottle of the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan, was provided to each tent, enhancing the immersive experience of the event [6][11]