本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者黄兴利 北京报道 曾以高成长性被视为白酒板块黑马、业绩一路高歌的今世缘（603369.SH），在此轮行业深度调整中也 未能独善其身。8月25日晚间披露的半年报显示：其营收与净利润双双承压下滑，而被视作业绩"蓄水 池"的合同负债更是骤降，折射出行业低迷周期下区域酒企面临的重重压力。 纵然这个夏天，今世缘凭借赞助"苏超"加大了品牌曝光度，但暂时并未能给业绩注入实质利好。当前白 酒深度调整仍未落幕，最艰难的挑战或许还在前方。在被问及行业何时迎来实质性转机时，今世缘方面 于近期投资者交流纪要中坦言："预计行业实质性好转可能在2026年下半年出现。2025年四季度环比降 幅或可改善，尽管去年同期基数较低，同比能否持平仍难预判。" 业绩骤降，高端承压 最新披露的半年报显示，今年上半年，今世缘实现营业收入69.50亿元，同比下滑4.84%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为22.29亿元，同比减少9.46%。值得注意的是，这是自2020年以来其半年度业绩首次出 现明显降速。 省内失速，省外难撑 今世缘过度依赖省内市场的结构性问题，在2025年上半年成绩单中被进一步放大。 从市场布局 ...

中银证券研报指出，洋河股份1H25归母净利43.4亿元，同比降45.3%。2Q25公司营收、归母净利分别为 37.3亿元、7.1亿元，同比分别降43.7%、62.7%。公司持续深度调整，2Q25营收降幅环比扩大，其中省 外受经销商数量减少影响，降幅高于省内。从经销商数量来看，1H25省内合计3010家，环比2024年末 增加11家，省外合计5599家，环比2024年末减少268家，省外调整幅度大于省内。2025年下半年公司将 持续调整，公司顺应行业趋势推出第七代海之蓝及高线光瓶酒稳固大众消费基础。公司经营节奏务实稳 健，随着渠道健康度回升，该行判断公司有望逐渐走出底部调整期。公司持续深度调整，报表出清释放 压力，静待改革成效显现。考虑到当前的行业环境及上半年公司业绩表现，维持"买入"评级。 ...

估值 2025年下半年公司将持续调整，公司顺应行业趋势推出第七代海之蓝及高线光瓶酒稳固大众消费基础。公 司经营节奏务实稳健，随着渠道健康度回升，我们判断公司有望逐渐走出底部调整期。根据公司公告，公 司规划2024至2026年年度现金分红总额不低于归母净利的70%且不低于人民币70亿元(含税)，公司2025年 动态股息率6.4%具备吸引力。根据公司半年报业绩及去年下半年同期基数降低，我们调整此前盈利预 测，预计25至27年公司归母净利分别为43.2亿元、46.0亿元、49.7亿元，同比增速分别为-35.3%、+6.5%、 +8.2%，当前市值对应PE分别为25.2X、23.7X、21.9X，维持买入评级。 评级面临的主要风险 中银国际证券股份有限公司邓天娇近期对洋河股份（002304）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司持续深度 调整，静待改革成效显现》，给予洋河股份买入评级。 洋河股份 洋河股份发布2025年半年报。1H25公司实现营收148亿元，同比降35.3%，归母净利43.4亿元，同比降 45.3%。2Q25公司营收、归母净利分别为37.3亿元、7.1亿元，同比分别降43.7%、62.7%。公司持续深度调 整 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 8 月 26 日 002304.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 72.16 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 相关研究报告 《洋河股份》20241105 《洋河股份》20240430 《洋河股份》20231102 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 食品饮料：白酒Ⅱ 证券分析师：邓天娇 (8610)66229391 tianjiao.deng@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519080002 洋河股份 公司持续深度调整，静待改革成效显现 洋河股份 2025 年半年报业绩点评：1H25 公司报表持续出清，公司仍处于深度调整 期，维持 买入 评级。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (11.2) 3.8 6.5 (5.5) 相对深圳成指 (31.8) (5.8) (12.5) (54.6) 发行股数 (百万) 1,506.45 (14%) (1%) 11% 24% 36% 49% Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 ...

白酒行业在2025年持续面临深度调整，消费场景变化与理性消费趋势双重影响下，头部酒企洋河股份交出了一份备受关注的半年成绩单。 8月18日晚间，洋河股份（002304.SZ）披露2025年半年报。报告期内，洋河股份上半年营收接近147.96亿元，归母净利润43.44亿元。洋河表示，公司立足长 远发展和理性发展，结合当前环境把握经营节奏，以切实解决发展中的问题为主，聚焦主导产品和重点市场，强化品质表达和口碑引领，可持续发展基础进 一步夯实。 文化共鸣与年轻化双轨并进 面对白酒消费群体代际迁移，洋河的品牌建设展现出前瞻视野。公司一方面深耕传统文化价值，通过封藏大典、开窖节等非遗活动强化历史底蕴；另一方面 大胆拥抱年轻消费潮流，实现品牌形象的活力焕新。 之 第 手工班 中国高端年份白酒 中国酒业协会年份酒联盟® 梦之蓝手工班 高线光瓶酒破局，大众价格带强势卡位 当前，白酒行业挤压式竞争态势正在加速演进，白酒企业竞争尤其是头部名酒企业之间的同质化内卷也在进一步加剧，对酒企的经营能力提出更高要求。洋 河股份表示，随着理性消费时代的到来，消费者对更舒适、更具质价比的白酒产品愈发青睐。 在白酒消费分级趋势下，洋河的产品创新精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights that Yanghe Brewery's financial statements are showing significant improvement, with a focus on marketing transformation in response to the challenging environment in the liquor industry [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry continues to face pressure, with a trend of increasing competition and market concentration [1] - The industry is experiencing a further differentiation trend, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Company Summary - Yanghe Brewery is adapting to the current environment by adjusting its operational pace, focusing on key products and markets with a strategy aimed at inventory reduction and sales promotion [1] - The company has introduced the seventh generation of its Hai Zhi Lan and high-line light bottle liquor, actively pursuing operational changes [1] - The dynamic dividend yield for Yanghe Brewery has reached 6.7%, positioning the company for both offensive and defensive strategies, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

文/兴利 8月18日晚间，洋河股份（002304）(002304.SZ)发布2025年半年度报告，在白酒行业深度调整的背景下交出了一份稳健的成绩单。报告显示，公司上半年 实现营业收入147.96亿元，归属于上市公司股东净利润43.44亿元。这份成绩单不仅展现了洋河作为行业龙头的抗风险能力，更透露出其在新管理层带领下 战略升级的积极信号。 短期波动不改长期向好根基 2025年的白酒市场正经历着近十年来最剧烈的结构性调整，酒企业绩放缓已成为行业新常态。当下，白酒行业正发生深刻变革，消费需求愈发理性，市场 竞争也进入白热化阶段，其中中高端白酒市场的销售难度显著增加。在这样的背景下，洋河能够保持相对稳定的业绩，已然彰显出其强大的韧性与抗风险 能力。 去年以来，洋河坚持"深耕大本营、深度全国化"的策略，以"省内精耕+省外突破"双轮驱动打开增长空间。凭借深厚的品牌底蕴、庞大的市场网络以及丰 富的产品矩阵，尽管行业承压，洋河在核心根据地市场的优势依然稳固。从半年报中也可以看到，洋河在江苏省内市场销售71.2亿元。 而这得益于洋河在今年上半年强化市场建设。坚持全国一盘棋，聚焦江苏市场和高地市场，合理优化资源配置，聚力稳固重点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Yanghe Co. is navigating through a challenging environment in the liquor industry, focusing on inventory reduction and price stabilization while adapting to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yanghe Co. achieved revenue of 14.796 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion yuan [1]. - The company's contract liabilities at the end of the reporting period reached 5.878 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.26%, indicating a recovery in confidence among distributors [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a phase of "stock competition," with a notable shift towards rational consumption and a preference for quality and cost-effective products [3]. - The market for light bottle liquor has been growing, with projections indicating it will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025, particularly in the 50-100 yuan price range, which is expected to grow over 40% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Yanghe Co. has implemented a "bottle opening" policy to control volume and stabilize prices for key products like Meng Liu+ and Hai Zhi Lan, aiming to assist in inventory reduction and stimulate sales [3]. - The company has launched the seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan and developed the Yanghe Daqu high-end light bottle liquor, targeting the 50-80 yuan market segment with a focus on quality and value [6][7]. Group 4: Product Development - The seventh generation of Hai Zhi Lan has improved its quality by increasing the proportion of aged liquor while maintaining its price point, reinforcing its position as a "billion-dollar product" [7]. - Yanghe Co. emphasizes quality as a core value, with stringent standards in raw material selection and production processes to enhance consumer drinking experiences [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The strategic adjustments made by Yanghe Co. are seen as effective, positioning the company for potential growth despite ongoing industry challenges [7]. - The company holds significant production capacity, including 700,000 tons of base liquor and 230,000 tons of high-end storage, which are expected to support its long-term development [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a significant transformation in marketing strategies while managing inventory effectively amidst a challenging market environment [7] - The company has reported a substantial decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue down 35.32% year-on-year and net profit down 45.34% year-on-year [7] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive measures to adjust its operations, including the launch of new products to stabilize its market position [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 33,126 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.04% [1] - The forecast for 2024 shows a decline in revenue to 28,876 million RMB, a decrease of 12.83% [1] - By 2025, revenue is expected to drop further to 20,161 million RMB, reflecting a significant decline of 30.18% [1] - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 10,016 million RMB, with a growth of 6.80% [1] - The net profit is projected to decrease to 6,673 million RMB in 2024, down 33.37% [1] - For 2025, the net profit is expected to further decline to 3,996 million RMB, a decrease of 40.12% [1] - The report anticipates a dynamic dividend yield of over 6.5% based on the company's commitment to distribute at least 70% of its net profit as dividends from 2024 to 2026 [7] Market and Operational Insights - The company is focusing on reducing inventory and enhancing sales strategies in response to ongoing market pressures [7] - The report notes a significant drop in sales for both mid-range and regular products, with declines of 36.52% and 27.24% respectively in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is also adjusting its distribution strategy, with a focus on strengthening its presence in key markets while reducing the number of distributors in less profitable regions [7]

Industry Environment - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments in the first half of 2025, characterized by declining volume and price, significant policy impacts, and a trend towards lower-quality products [3][4] - The market is seeing a rise in light bottle products, reflecting a trend of consumption downgrade, while the price inversion phenomenon is prevalent, indicating severe supply-demand imbalance [3][4] - The industry is focusing on high-quality development, with an emphasis on product innovation and sustainable practices as it seeks breakthroughs amid challenges [3][4] Market Trends - Small capacity (50ml-250ml) and large bottle (1L and above) products are gaining traction in the liquor market, with small bottles appealing to younger consumers through innovative marketing [5] - Major liquor brands are competing for the young market by launching low-alcohol products, with a significant potential consumer base of 490 million aged 18-30 contributing over 400 billion yuan in market size [6] Performance Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with several listed companies issuing profit warnings, while the beer sector is witnessing growth due to consumption recovery and cost reductions [7] - The domestic whiskey market is facing a selling frenzy, with prices dropping significantly below market value due to weakened consumer demand and increased channel pressure [8] Brand Dynamics - Tibet Development Co. plans to acquire a 50% stake in Lhasa Beer from Carlsberg, which could enhance its asset integrity and operational capabilities [9] - Yanghe's collaboration with the Scottish Premier League has led to the launch of a football-themed product, enhancing brand engagement through cultural integration [10][11] - Water Well's sales volume increased by 14.54% in the first half of 2025, attributed to its focus on mid-to-high-end products and effective inventory management strategies [17] Strategic Developments - Moutai is establishing a technology research institute to enhance innovation in the liquor industry, focusing on biochemistry and fermentation optimization [20] - The introduction of a 1L bottle of Moutai through the "i Moutai" platform reflects a strategic shift towards consumer-centric approaches and packaging upgrades [21][22] - The rise of light bottle products in the market, with brands like Yanghe leading the charge, indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards high-quality, affordable options [23] Consumer Engagement - The collaboration between Baidonglai and Jiu Gui Jiu aims to connect with younger consumers through cultural narratives and quality experiences [24] - The launch of new wedding-themed products by Congtai Distillery targets the high-end wedding market, leveraging cultural elements to enhance brand positioning [25] - The success of Red Label Jin Jiu, which saw a 50% growth in sales, highlights the effectiveness of innovative marketing strategies in attracting new consumer segments [26]