来源：华尔街见闻 德意志银行指出美国争夺委内瑞拉石油，表面是为能源，实则是为美元霸权打响的一场隐秘战争。 追风交易台消息，1月8日德银策略师Mallika Sachdeva发表研报指出，美国对委内瑞拉的介入远不止表 面的能源考量那么简单。虽然控制全球最大石油储备能增强美国对全球油价的影响力，但更深层的战略 目标在于维护美元的全球储备货币地位。 Sachdeva认为石油对军事力量的不可替代性直接影响一国在冲突中的胜算，而这正是各国央行持有储备 货币的核心考量因素。其次，控制石油定价权对维持石油美元体系至关重要。 随着美国不再是全球最大石油进口国，美国可能失去通过需求端控制定价的能力，转而寻求通过供应端 主导来确保石油继续以美元计价。 如果美国成功控制整个西半球的石油供应，其储量份额将超越欧佩克，从而巩固美元在全球金融体系中 的特殊地位。 能源霸权，历史的必然逻辑 研报复盘历史指出，一个国家通过掌控全球最核心的能源，不仅能获得经济与工业优势，更能将其转化 为不可挑战的军事优势和全球金融霸权，从而确立并维持其世界主导地位。 英国凭借欧洲最大的煤炭储备，率先引爆工业革命，成为19世纪的世界工厂与霸主。美国在发现大规模 ...

英国凭借欧洲最大的煤炭储备，率先引爆工业革命，成为19世纪的世界工厂与霸主。美国在发现大规模 石油后，凭借其高能量密度和便利性，推动了汽车、航空、化工等革命，在二战后成为全球经济与工业 中心。 德意志银行指出美国争夺委内瑞拉石油，表面是为能源，实则是为美元霸权打响的一场隐秘战争。 追风交易台消息，1月8日德银策略师Mallika Sachdeva发表研报指出，美国对委内瑞拉的介入远不止表 面的能源考量那么简单。虽然控制全球最大石油储备能增强美国对全球油价的影响力，但更深层的战略 目标在于维护美元的全球储备货币地位。 Sachdeva认为石油对军事力量的不可替代性直接影响一国在冲突中的胜算，而这正是各国央行持有储 备货币的核心考量因素。其次，控制石油定价权对维持石油美元体系至关重要。 随着美国不再是全球最大石油进口国，美国可能失去通过需求端控制定价的能力，转而寻求通过供应端 主导来确保石油继续以美元计价。 如果美国成功控制整个西半球的石油供应，其储量份额将超越欧佩克，从而巩固美元在全球金融体系中 的特殊地位。 能源霸权，历史的必然逻辑 研报复盘历史指出，一个国家通过掌控全球最核心的能源，不仅能获得经济与工业优势 ...

转自：扬子晚报 美国政府所谓"对委内瑞拉进行深度介入以恢复秩序"的无耻谰言，无疑又将该国拖入一场看不到尽头的 资本收割泥潭。1月3日在白宫召开的记者会上，"石油"一词前后共出现了26次，相比之下，与"毒品"相 关词语仅提到10余次。美国对委内瑞拉动刀背后的野心昭然若揭。原因无他，控制了委内瑞拉这个世界 上石油储量最大的国家，美国就能掌控石油美元体系的根基、主导世界能源安全的结构、把握关键地缘 战略的枢纽，继续巩固美元的霸权地位，并在国际博弈中掌握重要筹码。 2026年一开年，美国在拉丁美洲的斑斑劣迹再添一笔。 1月3日凌晨，美军发动跨境军事突袭，将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人强行押往美国。随后，美国司法 部长帕姆·邦迪在社交媒体上公布一系列指控，称马杜罗犯有"毒品恐怖主义阴谋罪、可卡因走私阴谋 罪"等多项罪名，并扬言他将很快在美国法庭上接受"全面制裁"。 实际上，委内瑞拉在全球毒品走私中仅仅扮演"过境国"角色，美国缉毒局在《2025年国家毒品威胁评估 报告》中甚至未将其列为芬太尼来源国。尽管马杜罗屡次揭露美国政府实为石油利益而来，白宫却始终 以"打击毒品恐怖主义"自居，扮演着"正义警察"的角色。然而，这场策划数 ...

最近，委内瑞拉海域和加勒比海国际水域的局势变得不太平，然而这次制造事端的不是加勒比海盗，而是美军。12月10日，美国海军扣押了船长号油轮，并 扣押了船上的110万桶石油，这一事件的发生标志着美军首次对外国油轮采取武力扣押。随后，美军不仅扣押了船长号，还接连扣押了世纪号和贝拉1号，其 中贝拉1号在被扣押时正在逃跑。 本来这件事情与中国无关，但美国却故意将中国牵扯其中。美军扣押的第二艘油轮世纪号是由中国香港世纪航运公司运营 的，这让美国的行动显得尤为针对中国。美国不是无意而为，背后显然有两重算计。首先，船长号为何会被美军扣押？虽然船长号的所属国尚不明确，但可 以确认的是，船上装载的石油来自委内瑞拉。 美国一直将委内瑞拉的马杜罗政权视为反美势力，因此非常不希望在地理上接近美国的委内瑞拉拥有一个反美政府。为打击马杜罗政权，美国对委内瑞拉实 施了严厉的经济制裁，尤其是封锁了该国的石油出口。石油出口是委内瑞拉经济的命脉，这一措施旨在让委内瑞拉经济崩溃，甚至可能引发内部分裂，从而 为美国扶持亲美政权提供机会。美国的这一战略多年来只是通过言辞进行施压，而美国总统特朗普则因中期选举临近而采取更为强硬的政策，试图通过这些 举措重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the U.S. dollar's dominance in the global financial system, highlighting how financial instruments and geopolitical strategies have been used to maintain this supremacy, particularly through mechanisms like the SWIFT system and the Petrodollar agreement [5][13][27]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established a dollar-gold standard, positioning the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, which was later challenged by the "Triffin Dilemma" [9][10]. - The U.S. dollar's link to gold ended in 1971 when President Nixon suspended the dollar's convertibility into gold, marking the transition to a fiat currency system [12][13]. Group 2: The Petrodollar System - The 1973 oil crisis led to the establishment of the Petrodollar system, where oil transactions were conducted exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating a structural demand for the dollar globally [15][27]. - This system allowed the U.S. to finance its deficits by printing dollars, which were then recycled back into the U.S. economy through the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds by oil-exporting countries [15][27]. Group 3: Financial Control Mechanisms - The SWIFT system, established in 1973, became a crucial tool for tracking and controlling international financial transactions, effectively allowing the U.S. to monitor global financial flows [18][20]. - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) maintains a blacklist that can freeze assets and restrict transactions, serving as a powerful tool for enforcing economic sanctions [25][31]. Group 4: Case Studies of Financial Power - The case of BNP Paribas illustrates the consequences of violating U.S. sanctions, resulting in a $8.97 billion fine, which exemplifies the reach of U.S. financial regulations [30][31]. - The article highlights the impact of sanctions on countries like Iran and Russia, demonstrating how financial tools can be used to exert geopolitical pressure and isolate nations from the global financial system [36][38]. Group 5: Emerging Alternatives - In response to U.S. financial dominance, countries are exploring alternatives such as the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and digital currencies, which aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [44][48]. - The resurgence of gold as a reserve asset reflects a growing concern over the security of dollar-denominated assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold holdings [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) aims to issue more euro stablecoins to counter the rapid expansion of US dollar stablecoins in Europe [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for the Popularity of US Dollar Stablecoins - Many individuals and businesses in the Eurozone prefer using US dollar stablecoins for payments, savings, and transactions due to their safety, as they are pegged 1:1 to the US dollar and backed by US assets [5]. - The convenience of blockchain technology allows for fast cross-border transactions without the need for traditional banks, enhancing privacy [5]. - Higher interest rates on US dollar deposits compared to European rates incentivize users to hold dollar stablecoins for better returns [5]. - The dominance of the US dollar in global trade, especially in commodities and cryptocurrency transactions, makes it essential for European businesses to use dollar stablecoins for international dealings [5][7]. Group 2: Challenges for Euro Stablecoins - The EU's attempt to promote euro stablecoins faces significant challenges due to the entrenched dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [8][10]. - The historical context of the US dollar's supremacy, established through systems like Bretton Woods and the petrodollar, has created a robust demand for dollar stablecoins, which merely digitize existing dollar demand [10][11]. - The euro, while the second-largest currency globally, is primarily used within the Eurozone, limiting its appeal for international transactions [13]. - The EU must address internal issues such as building asset pools, ensuring transparency, and gaining user trust before euro stablecoins can compete effectively [17]. Group 3: Current Initiatives and Future Outlook - The EU is currently testing euro stablecoins in specific areas like cross-border e-commerce and internal natural gas transactions to build familiarity and usage within the Eurozone [19]. - The competition between stablecoins is just beginning, with potential opportunities arising from future economic shifts, such as US debt issues or the development of regional stablecoins in Asia-Pacific [19][21]. - The EU's strategy should focus on solidifying the internal market for euro stablecoins before attempting to compete with US dollar stablecoins on a global scale [21].

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that as of the end of Q2 2025, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995, while the Chinese yuan has made significant inroads in international energy settlements, particularly with Saudi Arabia [3] - The structural weakening of the petrodollar system is accelerating, highlighted by Saudi Arabia's shift towards multi-currency settlement mechanisms and the completion of the first oil transaction using digital yuan, significantly reducing transaction times [3][4] - The transition from a petrodollar system to a multi-currency framework is driven by concerns over the risks associated with dollar dependency and the strategic diversification efforts of oil-producing countries [4][5] Group 1: Energy Settlement Changes - The shift in the Middle Eastern energy settlement system is rooted in a profound change in the stance of oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has expressed openness to using currencies other than the dollar for oil transactions [4] - The geopolitical risks associated with the dollar system, especially following the financial sanctions against Russia, have prompted oil-producing nations to seek alternatives to reduce reliance on a single currency [4][5] - China's position as the largest energy importer and its growing trade with Saudi Arabia, which reached $107.53 billion in 2024, underscores the importance of diversifying currency use in energy transactions [4] Group 2: Financial Circulation and Investment - Establishing a financial circulation system that allows yuan to flow in and out of the Middle East is crucial for the yuan's acceptance as a stable currency [10] - The issuance of yuan-denominated sovereign bonds by China in the Middle East, which saw a subscription rate of nearly 20 times the amount offered, reflects strong investor confidence in Chinese credit [10][12] - The expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the establishment of currency swap agreements with over 40 countries facilitate the use of yuan in international trade and investment [11][12] Group 3: Economic Cooperation and Trust - The deepening of economic cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries, moving beyond oil trade to infrastructure and technology, is essential for building trust in the yuan [14][15] - Projects like the China-Saudi Arabia Special Economic Zone and the Jizan Economic City highlight the growing demand for yuan-denominated transactions in various sectors [14][15] - The collaboration in green energy and high-tech sectors further solidifies the reliability of China as a partner, enhancing the yuan's stability and acceptance [15][16] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Challenges - The decline of the petrodollar system is influenced by historical factors, including the US's use of financial sanctions, which have raised concerns among traditional allies about the risks of dollar dependency [19][20] - Despite the weakening of the petrodollar, the dollar's entrenched position in global trade and finance presents challenges for the yuan's internationalization [20][22] - The geopolitical dynamics and the US's potential response to the de-dollarization trend could pose significant hurdles for the yuan's rise as a global currency [20][22] Conclusion - The transition towards a multi-currency system is underway, with the yuan gaining traction in the Middle East, signaling a shift away from dollar dominance and towards a more balanced international monetary order [22][23]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Deutsche Bank reports that gold's share in global "foreign exchange and gold" reserves has risen to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%. If gold is to match the dollar's share, its price would need to rise to approximately $5,790 per ounce [1] - Western Securities suggests that the current high gold prices indicate the potential for a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases, despite some investor concerns about short-term overbought conditions [2] Group 2: U.S. Banking Sector Analysis - CICC states that recent bank failures in the U.S. do not pose a systemic risk to the financial system, as they are more localized credit risk events rather than widespread issues. However, rising credit risks in a high-interest environment could lead to tighter lending conditions [2] - Huatai Securities highlights that while the U.S. banking sector currently shows healthy cash flows and liquidity, long-term integration pressures remain due to the large number of small banks facing challenges in asset quality and competition [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Trends - CICC emphasizes that the expectation of an economic cycle recovery is the most significant factor influencing asset pricing this year, with indicators showing diminishing resistance to recovery [6] - CICC also notes that while maintaining optimism towards the stock market, investors should be cautious in their asset allocation, focusing on undervalued sectors and commodities expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [6] Group 4: Rare Earth and Cobalt Market Opportunities - CITIC Securities reports that China's recent export controls on rare earths are expected to strengthen its strategic position, potentially leading to price increases and challenges for overseas supply chains [4] - The report indicates that the tightening of controls on rare earths will likely benefit high-performance magnetic materials, increasing demand for iron oxide permanent magnets [4] Group 5: Environmental Regulations and Market Potential - Huatai Securities estimates that the market space for tail gas treatment under the National Seven standards could reach 100 billion yuan, benefiting companies with advanced technology and competitive products in this sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflicting narratives between the U.S. and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, highlighting India's strategic position between U.S. pressure and its reliance on discounted Russian oil amidst geopolitical tensions [1][3][25]. Group 1: U.S.-India Relations - Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil after a certain grace period, but the Indian Foreign Ministry denied any such conversation took place [1][3]. - The U.S. is India's largest trading partner, with a trade volume of $128.8 billion in 2024, and India has a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the U.S. [9]. - Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% if India did not cease its Russian oil purchases, which would severely impact India's textile and electronics industries [11]. Group 2: India's Oil Dependency - Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Russian oil accounted for less than 3% of India's imports, but this figure surged to 39% by 2025 due to discounted prices [5][7]. - In 2024, India saved $5 billion by purchasing Russian oil at prices 15% lower than international rates, and it has also been reselling processed Russian oil to sanctioned European countries [7][9]. Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - Russia has shifted to using the Chinese yuan for oil trade settlements due to Western sanctions, which poses challenges for India as it has been trying to internationalize the Indian rupee [13][15]. - The yuan's stability and convertibility have made it an attractive option for Russia, while the Indian rupee's lack of free convertibility limits its utility in international trade [15]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The article suggests that India's dual approach of publicly denying U.S. claims while continuing to import Russian oil reflects its historical diplomatic strategy of balancing relations between major powers [19][25]. - The ongoing situation has implications for the global oil market, as it may lead to a shift away from the dollar in oil transactions, with more countries considering the yuan as a viable alternative [25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent 5.4% drop in the US dollar index, marking the largest decline since 2003, signals a significant shift in the dominance of the dollar, influenced by policy changes from major central banks [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes after 11 consecutive increases indicates a pessimistic outlook on the US economy, contributing to the dollar's decline [4]. - The European Central Bank's unexpected 25 basis point rate cut has led to a drop in the euro to a critical exchange rate of 1:1.05 against the dollar, exacerbating the dollar's liquidity surplus [4]. - Japan's termination of its negative interest rate policy has resulted in a significant capital inflow of $16 billion, further weakening the dollar index [6]. Group 2: De-dollarization Trends - Global central banks are actively reducing their dollar reserves, with gold purchases expected to exceed 1,200 tons in 2024, and China reducing its US Treasury holdings by $217 billion over 18 months [7]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 58%, a sharp decline from 71% in 2000 [7]. Group 3: Economic Pressures and Trade Policies - The US fiscal deficit has surpassed $35 trillion, leading to a credit crisis, while the use of the SWIFT system for sanctions has prompted countries like Saudi Arabia and China to explore alternative settlement mechanisms [9]. - The imposition of 100% tariffs on imports by the Trump administration has negatively impacted the dollar, with the Nasdaq index dropping 3.56% in a single day and Chinese stocks falling over 9% [10]. Group 4: Systemic Risks and Future Outlook - The $19.2 billion liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market highlights systemic risks associated with the dollar's depreciation, as the failure of Bitcoin to maintain the $115,000 support level triggered a wave of forced liquidations [13]. - Warning signals indicate that the US fiscal and trade deficits are exceeding 6% of GDP, while advancements in China's 7nm chip technology threaten the "chip dollar" system [14].